Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

Contrasting fast precipitation responses to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing

The precipitation response to radiative forcing (RF) can be decomposed into a fast precipitation response (FPR), which depends on the atmospheric component of RF, and a slow response, which depends on surface temperature change. We present the first detailed climate model study of the FPR due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes. The FPR depends strongly on the altitude of ozone change. Increases below about 3 km cause a positive FPR; increases above cause a negative FPR. The FPR due to stratospheric ozone change is, per unit RF, about 3 times larger than that due to tropospheric ozone. As historical ozone trends in the troposphere and stratosphere are opposite in sign, so too are the FPRs. Simple climate model calculations of the time-dependent total (fast and slow) precipitation change, indicate that ozone's contribution to precipitation change in 2011, compared to 1765, could exceed 50% of that due to CO2 change.

Implicit equal-weights particle filter

Filter degeneracy is the main obstacle for the implementation of particle filter in non-linear high-dimensional models. A new scheme, the implicit equal-weights particle filter (IEWPF), is introduced. In this scheme samples are drawn implicitly from proposal densities with a different covariance for each particle, such that all particle weights are equal by construction. We test and explore the properties of the new scheme using a 1,000-dimensional simple linear model, and the 1,000-dimensional non-linear Lorenz96 model, and compare the performance of the scheme to a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the new scheme can easily be implemented in high-dimensional systems and is never degenerate, with good convergence properties in both systems.

Population-Based Multicentric Survey of Hepatitis B Infection and Risk Factor Differences among Three Regions in Brazil

This multicentric population-based study in Brazil is the first national effort to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and risk factors in the capital cities of the Northeast. Central-West, and Federal Districts (2004-2005). Random multistage cluster sampling was used to select persons 13-69 years of age. Markers for HBV were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBV genotypes were determined by sequencing hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Multivariate analyses and simple catalytic model were performed. Overall. 7,881 persons were inculded < 70% were not vaccinated. Positivity for HBsAg was less than 1% among non-vaccinated persons and genotypes A, D, and F co-circulated. The incidence of infection increased with age with similar force of infection in all regions. Males and persons having initiated sexual activity were associated with HBV infection in the two settings: healthcare jobs and prior hospitalization were risk factors in the Federal District. Our survey classified these regions as areas with HBV endemicity and highlighted the risk factors differences among the settings.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations

The Amazon Basin is crucial to global circulatory and carbon patterns due to the large areal extent and large flux magnitude. Biogeophysical models have had difficulty reproducing the annual cycle of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon in some regions of the Amazon, generally simulating uptake during the wet season and efflux during seasonal drought. In reality, the opposite occurs. Observational and modeling studies have identified several mechanisms that explain the observed annual cycle, including: (1) deep soil columns that can store large water amount, (2) the ability of deep roots to access moisture at depth when near-surface soil dries during annual drought, (3) movement of water in the soil via hydraulic redistribution, allowing for more efficient uptake of water during the wet season, and moistening of near-surface soil during the annual drought, and (4) photosynthetic response to elevated light levels as cloudiness decreases during the dry season. We incorporate these mechanisms into the third version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) both singly and collectively, and confront the results with observations. For the forest to maintain function through seasonal drought, there must be sufficient water storage in the soil to sustain transpiration through the dry season in addition to the ability of the roots to access the stored water. We find that individually, none of these mechanisms by themselves produces a simulation of the annual cycle of NEE that matches the observed. When these mechanisms are combined into the model, NEE follows the general trend of the observations, showing efflux during the wet season and uptake during seasonal drought.

Dissociation of circadian and light inhibition of melatonin release through forced desynchronization in the rat

Pineal melatonin release exhibits a circadian rhythm with a tight nocturnal pattern. Melatonin synthesis is regulated by the master circadian clock within the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) and is also directly inhibited by light. The SCN is necessary for both circadian regulation and light inhibition of melatonin synthesis and thus it has been difficult to isolate these two regulatory limbs to define the output pathways by which the SCN conveys circadian and light phase information to the pineal. A 22-h light-dark (LD) cycle forced desynchrony protocol leads to the stable dissociation of rhythmic clock gene expression within the ventrolateral SCN (vlSCN) and the dorsomedial SCN (dmSCN). In the present study, we have used this protocol to assess the pattern of melatonin release under forced desynchronization of these SCN subregions. In light of our reported patterns of clock gene expression in the forced desynchronized rat, we propose that the vlSCN oscillator entrains to the 22-h LD cycle whereas the dmSCN shows relative coordination to the light-entrained vlSCN, and that this dual-oscillator configuration accounts for the pattern of melatonin release. We present a simple mathematical model in which the relative coordination of a single oscillator within the dmSCN to a single light-entrained oscillator within the vlSCN faithfully portrays the circadian phase, duration and amplitude of melatonin release under forced desynchronization. Our results underscore the importance of the SCN`s subregional organization to both photic input processing and rhythmic output control.

Fractional quantum Hall effect in second subband of a 2DES

In the present paper we report on the experimental electron sheet density vs. magnetic field diagram for the magnetoresistance R(xx) of a two-dimensional electron system (2DES) with two occupied subbands. For magnetic fields above 9T, we found fractional quantum Hall levels centered around the filing factor v = 3/2 in both the two occupied electric subbands. We focused specially on the fractional levels of the second subband, whose experimental values of the magnetic field B of their minima do not obey a periodicity law in 1/|B-B(c)|, where B(c) is the critical field at the filling factor v = 3/2, and we explain this fact entirely in the framework of the composite fermions theory. We use a simple theoretical model to give a possible explanation for the fact. Copyright (c) EPLA, 2011

Oxide surface modification: Synthesis and characterization of zirconia-coated alumina

Four aluminas were used as Supports for impregnation with a zirconium oxide with the aim to achieve a coating, without phase separation, between Support and modifier. The Supports were impregnated with different concentrations Of zirconium aqueous resin, obtained through the polymeric precursor method. After impregnation the samples were calcined and then characterized by XRD, which led to identification of crystalline zirconia in different concentrations from each support used. Using a simple geometric model the maximum amount Of Surface modifier Oxide required for the complete coating of a support with a layer of unit cells was estimated. According to this estimate, only the support should be identified below the limit proposed and crystalline zirconium oxide Should be identified above this limit when a complete coating is reached. The results obtained From XRD agree with the estimated values and to confirm the coating, the samples were also characterized by EDS/STEM, HRTEM, XPS, and XAS. The results showed that the zirconium oxide oil the Surface of alumina Support reached the coating in the limit of 15 Zr nm(-2), without the formation of the ZrO(2) phase. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phototransformation of hematoporphyrin in aqueous solution: Anomalous behavior at low oxygen concentration

The photoactivation of a photosensitizer is the initial step in photodynamic therapy (PDT) where photochemical reactions result in the production of reactive oxygen species and eventually cell death. In addition to oxidizing biomolecules, some of these photochemical reactions lead to photosensitizer degradation at a rate dependent on the oxygen concentration among other factors. We investigated photodegradation of Photogem A (R) (28 mu M), a hematoporphyrin derivative, at different oxygen concentrations (9.4 to 625.0 mu M) in aqueous solution. The degradation was monitored by fluorescence spectroscopy. The degradation rate (M/s) increases as the oxygen concentration increases when the molar ratio of oxygen to PhotogemA (R) is greater than 1. At lower oxygen concentrations (< 25 mu M) an inversion of this behavior was observed. The data do not fit a simple kinetic model of first-order dependence on oxygen concentration. This inversion of the degradation rate at low oxygen concentration has not previously been demonstrated and highlights the relationship between photosensitizer and oxygen concentrations in determining the photobleaching mechanism(s). The findings demonstrate that current models for photobleaching are insufficient to explain completely the effects at low oxygen concentration.

Automatic camera control in virtual environments augmented using multiple sparse videos

Automated virtual camera control has been widely used in animation and interactive virtual environments. We have developed a multiple sparse camera based free view video system prototype that allows users to control the position and orientation of a virtual camera, enabling the observation of a real scene in three dimensions (3D) from any desired viewpoint. Automatic camera control can be activated to follow selected objects by the user. Our method combines a simple geometric model of the scene composed of planes (virtual environment), augmented with visual information from the cameras and pre-computed tracking information of moving targets to generate novel perspective corrected 3D views of the virtual camera and moving objects. To achieve real-time rendering performance, view-dependent textured mapped billboards are used to render the moving objects at their correct locations and foreground masks are used to remove the moving objects from the projected video streams. The current prototype runs on a PC with a common graphics card and can generate virtual 2D views from three cameras of resolution 768 x 576 with several moving objects at about 11 fps. (C)2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling, WLS, and Mixed Models

Mixed models may be defined with or without reference to sampling, and can be used to predict realized random effects, as when estimating the latent values of study subjects measured with response error. When the model is specified without reference to sampling, a simple mixed model includes two random variables, one stemming from an exchangeable distribution of latent values of study subjects and the other, from the study subjects` response error distributions. Positive probabilities are assigned to both potentially realizable responses and artificial responses that are not potentially realizable, resulting in artificial latent values. In contrast, finite population mixed models represent the two-stage process of sampling subjects and measuring their responses, where positive probabilities are only assigned to potentially realizable responses. A comparison of the estimators over the same potentially realizable responses indicates that the optimal linear mixed model estimator (the usual best linear unbiased predictor, BLUP) is often (but not always) more accurate than the comparable finite population mixed model estimator (the FPMM BLUP). We examine a simple example and provide the basis for a broader discussion of the role of conditioning, sampling, and model assumptions in developing inference.

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is there wage premium to computer use in Sweden

This paper examines the wage premium to computer use in Sweden in the early 1990’s. I use simple regression model and interaction terms in my paper to examine the effect of computer use at work. Although the data is only one-year cross-section data, my results clearly show a wage premium to computer use in Sweden. There are also interesting findings in my paper by using Swedish data. From the results, I find wage premium to be related to intensity of computer use at work.

Reflection of matter waves in potential structures

In this paper the behavior of matter waves in suddenly terminated potential structures is investigated numerically. It is shown that there is no difference between a fully quantum mechanical treatment and a semiclassical one with regards to energy redistribution. For the quantum case it is demonstrated that there can be substantial reflection at the termination. The neglect of backscattering by the semiclassical method brings about major differences in the case of low kinetic energies. A simple phenomenological model is shown to partially explain the observed backscattering using dynamics of reduced dimensionality.