Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 European centers during 1989-2008: little short-term influence of sunshine hours or average temperature

BACKGROUND: The month of diagnosis in childhood type 1 diabetes shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the pattern and investigate if year-to-year irregularities are associated with meteorological factors using data from 50 000 children diagnosed under the age of 15 yr in 23 population-based European registries during 1989-2008.

METHODS: Tests for seasonal variation in monthly counts aggregated over the 20 yr period were performed. Time series regression was used to investigate if sunshine hour and average temperature data were predictive of the 240 monthly diagnosis counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.

RESULTS: Significant sinusoidal pattern was evident in all but two small centers with peaks in November to February and relative amplitudes ranging from ±11 to ±38% (median ±17%). However, most centers showed significant departures from a sinusoidal pattern. Pooling results over centers, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, with least seasonal variation in those under 5 yr. Boys showed greater seasonal variation than girls, particularly those aged 10-14 yr. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four 5-yr sub-periods. Departures from the sinusoidal trend in monthly diagnoses in the period were significantly associated with deviations from the norm in average temperature (0.8% reduction in diagnoses per 1 °C excess) but not with sunshine hours.

CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality was consistently apparent throughout the period in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5 s showed less marked variation. Neither sunshine hour nor average temperature data contributed in any substantial way to explaining departures from the sinusoidal pattern.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

Cyclosporin A and short-term methotrexate versus cyclosporin A as graft versus host disease prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia given allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling:results of a GITMO/EBMT randomized trial

A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

RAIN EVENTS INFLUENCE SHORT-TERM FEEDING PREFERENCES IN THE SNAIL CEPAEA NEMORALIS

Terrestrial gastropods are both herbivores and detritivores, but the ratio between these two modes of feeding can be highly variable over time. While previous studies have examined long-term seasonal patterns in the consumption of fresh material, mechanisms explaining short-term variation in dietary preferences have not been explored. We used faecal analysis to determine how short-term variation in weather affects the ratio of herbivory to detritivory in the land snail Cepaea nemoralis. Averaged across sampling dates, c. 9% of the faeces were composed of fresh plant material, with the remainder consisting of plant litter and soil. Temperature, relative humidity and soil moisture did not affect the proportional consumption of fresh material; however, snails consumed more soil with increasing temperature. If there had not been a recent precipitation event, the mean proportion of fresh material in the faeces more than doubled on average; however, this increase only occurred in areas of low herbaceous cover. Our results suggest that an increased proportion of snails consume fresh material during dry periods to compensate for water losses. Moreover, our study highlights that studies of dietary composition in the field need to account for short-term variation in feeding
preferences caused by weather.

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES Ana Elisa Rato1,4, Renato Coelho1, Margarida Vaz1, Teresa Carola2, Dália Barbosa2, Nádia Silva1, José dos Santos2, Lourenço Machado2, João Godinho2, Luzia Ruas2, Margarida Barradas2, Hernani Pereira2, Sara Porfírio4 1 ICAAM, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 2 Master students, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 3 Ph.D. student, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 4 aerato@uevora.pt Due to the desertification in some regions, the interest in plant’s tolerance to salinity has been increasing, as this response is determining for plant survival in stress conditions. This work reports the investigation of tolerance to salt in two year-old olive trees (Olea europaea L.) of three varieties, Arbequina, Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar. Plants were grown in 10 L plastic pots containing approximately 9 Kg of a sandy granitic soil, on a greenhouse. For 3 months (from the beginning of February to the end of April 2012), they were subjected to three levels of salinity in the irrigation water, 0 mM, 80 mM and 200 mM NaCl (6 plants per salinity level in a total of 18 plants of each variety),. Stomatal conductance (gs) and relative leaf chlorophyll content were assessed on each plant in February, March and April. Mid-day leaf water potential () and soil salinity were measured at the end of the experiment (April). On average, concerning all treatments and dates of determination, stomatal conductance of Arbequina and Galega vulgar was quite similar, around 40 mmol m-2 s-1, but Cobrançosa had a value of gs 36% higher, almost 50% higher (61 mmol m-2 s-1) when compared with the controls (0 mM salt) of the other two varieties. In percentage of controls, there was little difference in gs between varieties and between salinities during February and March. In contrast, in April, after about 90 days of exposure to salt, there was a clear decrease in gs with salt irrigation, proportional to salt concentration. Compared with controls, plants irrigated with 200 mM salt showed around 80% (Arbequina) or 85% (Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar) decrease in gs. Chlorophyll content of leaves showed less than 5% difference between varieties on the average of all treatments and dates of determination. During the course of this experiment, the salinity levels used did not show any relevant effect on chlorophyll content. Overall, at the end of the experimental period (April), leaf water potential () at midday was significantly higher in Cobrançosa (-1,4 MPa) than in Galega vulgar (-1,7 MPa) or Arbequina (-1,8 MPa), and salt decreased  of control plants (-1,25 MPa) by an average 30% (with 80 mM) and 65% (with 200 mM). At the end of the experiment, salinity in the soil irrigated with 0 mM, 80 mM or 200 mM NaCl was, on average of all varieties, 0,2 mS, 1,0 mS or 2,0 mS, respectively. Soil salinity was quite similar in Arbequina and Galega vulgar but about 35% lower in the pots of Cobrançosa, on average of all salt-irrigation levels. Plants of Cobrançosa had higher stomatal conductance, however they showed higher water potential and lower salinity in the soil. These apparently contradictory results seem to suggest that Cobrançosa responds to salt differently from the other two varieties. This issue needs further investigation.

Macrofauna spatial differences within clam dredge-tracks and their implications for short-term fishing effect studies

In situ observations of clam dredging showed that the effects of the dredge on the benthic macrofauna may not be constant during a tow. A sand buffer forms in front of the gear approximately 10m after the beginning of a tow, and this pushes the sediment partially aside.In this study, we analyse differences in abundance, the number of taxa present, diversity, and evenness within sections of dredge-tracks in a disturbed, fished area and a non-fished area along the southern coast of Portugal. These areas were sampled by divers before and after dredge-fishing activity. At each site, three dredge-tracks were produced. These tracks were divided in three longitudinal sections 1start, middle and end) and two transverse sections 1track and edge). Six quadrats were used to sample macrofauna in each section of every track and edge. Our results show differences exist in macro- faunal distribution and abundance across sections of a dredge-track. These differences should be considered in any assessment of the short-term ecological impact of dredges on benthic macrofauna

Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

The immediate and short-term chemosensory impacts of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular activity

The immediate and short-term chemosensory impacts of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular activity. Introduction: Caffeine is detected by 5 of the 25 gustatory bitter taste receptors (hTAS2Rs) as well as by intestinal STC-1 cell lines. Thus there is a possibility that caffeine may elicit reflex autonomic responses via chemosensory stimulation. Methods: The cardiovascular impacts of double-espresso coffee, regular (130 mg caffeine) and decaffeinated, and encapsulated caffeine (134 mg) were compared with a placebocontrol capsule. Measures of four post-ingestion phases were extracted from a continuous recording of cardiovascular parameters and contrasted with pre-ingestion measures. Participants (12 women) were seated in all but the last phase when they were standing. Results: Both coffees increased heart rate immediately after ingestion by decreasing both the diastolic interval and ejection time. The increases in heart rate following the ingestion of regular coffee extended for 30 min. Encapsulated caffeine decreased arterial compliance and increased diastolic pressure when present in the gut and later in the standing posture. Discussion: These divergent findings indicate that during ingestion the caffeine in coffee can elicit autonomic arousal via the chemosensory stimulation of the gustatory receptors which extends for at least 30 min. In contrast, encapsulated caffeine can stimulate gastrointestinal receptors and elicit vascular responses involving digestion. Conclusion: Research findings on caffeine are not directly applicable to coffee and vice versa. The increase of heart rate resulting from coffee drinking is a plausible pharmacological explanation for the observation that coffee increases risk for coronary heart disease in the hour after ingestion.

An artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal

This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A regulatory framework for short-term stochastic maintenance outage scheduling in smart grids

The current regulatory framework for maintenance outage scheduling in distribution systems needs revision to face the challenges of future smart grids. In the smart grid context, generation units and the system operator perform new roles with different objectives, and an efficient coordination between them becomes necessary. In this paper, the distribution system operator (DSO) of a microgrid receives the proposals for shortterm (ST) planned outages from the generation and transmission side, and has to decide the final outage plans, which is mandatory for the members to follow. The framework is based on a coordination procedure between the DSO and other market players. This paper undertakes the challenge of optimization problem in a smart grid where the operator faces with uncertainty. The results show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed regulatory framework in the modified IEEE 34- bus test system.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Forest soil short term response to prescribed fire: an approach by Principal Components Analysis

In the current context of serious climate changes, where the increase of the frequency of some extreme events occurrence can enhance the rate of periods prone to high intensity forest fires, the National Forest Authority often implements, in several Portuguese forest areas, a regular set of measures in order to control the amount of fuel mass availability (PNDFCI, 2008). In the present work we’ll present a preliminary analysis concerning the assessment of the consequences given by the implementation of prescribed fire measures to control the amount of fuel mass in soil recovery, in particular in terms of its water retention capacity, its organic matter content, pH and content of iron. This work is included in a larger study (Meira-Castro, 2009(a); Meira-Castro, 2009(b)). According to the established praxis on the data collection, embodied in multidimensional matrices of n columns (variables in analysis) by p lines (sampled areas at different depths), and also considering the quantitative data nature present in this study, we’ve chosen a methodological approach that considers the multivariate statistical analysis, in particular, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA ) (Góis, 2004). The experiments were carried out in a soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, NW Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years and was submit to prescribed fire in March 2008. The soils samples were collected from five different plots at six different time periods. The methodological option that was adopted have allowed us to identify the most relevant relational structures inside the n variables, the p samples and in two sets at the same time (Garcia-Pereira, 1990). Consequently, and in addition to the traditional outputs produced from the PCA, we have analyzed the influence of both sampling depths and geomorphological environments in the behavior of all variables involved.

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.