A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategisten reaalioptioiden mallintaminen Monte Carlo -simulointimenetelmällä, case Voest Alpine Stahl Ag

Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli selvittää, miten Monte Carlo –simulointi soveltuu strategisten reaalioptioiden arvonmääritykseen. Tutkielman teoriaosuudessa käytiin läpi reaalioptioteoriaa ja Monte Carlo –simulointimenetelmää toiminta-analyyttisella tutkimusotteella. Tuloksena todettiin, että simulointimenetelmää on reaalioptioiden yhteydessä yleensä käytetty, kun muu menetelmä ei ole ollut mahdollinen. Tutkielman pääpaino on tapaustutkimukseen pohjautuvassa empiriaosuudessa, jossa rakennettiin päätöksentekometodologista tutkimusotetta seuraten simulointimalli, jolla tutkittiin Voest Alpine Stahl Ag:n vaihtoehtoisten hinnoittelustrategioiden taloudellista vaikutusta. Mallin rakentaminen perustui yrityksen tilinpäätösaineistoon. Havaittiin, ettei yritys ole valitsemansa strategian vuoksi juurikaan menettänyt tuottoja, mutta toisaalta pelkkä tilinpäätösaineisto ei riitä kovin luotettavaan tarkasteluun. Vuosikertomusten antaman tiedon pohjalta analysoitiin lisäksi yrityksen toiminnassa havaittuja reaalioptioita. Monte Carlo –simulointimenetelmä sopii reaalioptioiden arvonmääritykseen, mutta kriittisiä tekijöitä ovat mallin rakentaminen ja lähtötietojen oikeellisuus. Numeerisen mallin rinnalla on siksi aiheellista suorittaa myös laadullista reaalioptioanalyysia.

Effect of the surface charge discretization on electric double layers. A Monte Carlo simulation study

The structure of the electric double layer in contact with discrete and continuously charged planar surfaces is studied within the framework of the primitive model through Monte Carlo simulations. Three different discretization models are considered together with the case of uniform distribution. The effect of discreteness is analyzed in terms of charge density profiles. For point surface groups,a complete equivalence with the situation of uniformly distributed charge is found if profiles are exclusively analyzed as a function of the distance to the charged surface. However, some differences are observed moving parallel to the surface. Significant discrepancies with approaches that do not account for discreteness are reported if charge sites of finite size placed on the surface are considered.

Dosimetria em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia do iodo usando o método Monte Carlo

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a dose absorvida em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia, como os elétrons Auger e os de conversão interna, além das partículas beta, para os radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I) usando o método Monte Carlo. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O cálculo da dose foi feito ao nível folicular, simulando elétrons Auger, conversão interna e partículas beta, com o código MCNP4C. Os folículos (colóide e células foliculares) foram modelados como esferas, com diâmetros do colóide variando de 30 a 500 mm. A densidade considerada para os folículos foi a da água (1,0 g.cm-³). RESULTADOS: Considerando partículas de baixa energia, o percentual de contribuição do 131I na dose total absorvida pelo colóide é de aproximadamente 25%, enquanto os isótopos de meia-vida física curta apresentaram contribuição de 75%. Para as células foliculares, esse percentual é ainda maior, chegando a 87% para os iodos de meia-vida curta e 13% para o 131I. CONCLUSÃO: Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se mostrar a importância de se considerar partículas de baixa energia na contribuição para a dose total absorvida ao nível folicular (colóide e células foliculares) devido aos radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I).

Redução de incertezas em radioterapia utilizando simulação Monte Carlo: análise espectral aplicada à correção de dose absorvida

OBJETIVO: Determinar, por simulação Monte Carlo, os espectros de feixes de cobaltoterapia em profundidade na água e fatores de correção para doses absorvidas em dosímetros termoluminescentes de fluoreto de lítio. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: As simulações dos espectros secundários da fonte clínica de cobalto-60 foram realizadas com o código Monte Carlo PENELOPE, em diversas profundidades na água. Medidas experimentais de dose profunda foram obtidas com dosímetros termoluminescentes e câmara de ionização em condições de referência em radioterapia. Os fatores de correção para os dosímetros termoluminescentes foram obtidos através da razão entre as absorções relativas ao espectro de baixa energia e ao espectro total. RESULTADOS: A análise espectral em profundidade revelou a existência de espectros secundários de baixa energia responsáveis por uma parcela significativa da deposição de dose. Foram observadas discrepâncias de 3,2% nas doses medidas experimentalmente com a câmara de ionização e com os dosímetros termoluminescentes. O uso dos fatores de correção nessas medidas permitiu diminuir a discrepância entre as doses absorvidas para, no máximo, 0,3%. CONCLUSÃO: Os espectros simulados permitem o cálculo de fatores de correção para as leituras de dosímetros termoluminescentes utilizados em medidas de dose profunda, contribuindo para a redução das incertezas associadas ao controle de qualidade de feixes clínicos em radioterapia.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.

Termodinâmica estatística de líquidos com o método de Monte Carlo. I. Metodologia

Statistical mechanics Monte Carlo simulation is reviewed as a formalism to study thermodynamic properties of liquids. Considering the importance of free energy changes in chemical processes, the thermodynamic perturbation theory implemented in the Monte Carlo method is discussed. The representation of molecular interaction by the Lennard-Jones and Coulomb potential functions is also discussed. Charges derived from quantum molecular electrostatic potential are also discussed as an useful methodology to generate an adequate set of partial charges to be used in liquid simulation.

Termodinâmica estatística de líquidos com o método de Monte Carlo. II. O líquido clorofórmio

Thermodynamic properties and radial distribution functions for liquid chloroform were calculated using the Monte Carlo method implemented with Metropolis algorithm in the NpT ensemble at 298 K and 1 atm. A five site model was developed to represent the chloroform molecules. A force field composed by Lennard-Jones and Coulomb potential functions was used to calculate the intermolecular energy. The partial charges needed to represent the Coulombic interactions were obtained from quantum chemical ab initio calculations. The Lennard-Jones parameters were adjusted to reproduce experimental values for density and enthalpy of vaporization for pure liquid. All thermodynamic results are in excelent agreement with experimental data. The correlation functions calculated are in good accordance with theoretical results avaliable in the literature. The free energy for solvating one chloroform molecule into its own liquid at 298 K and 1 atm was computed as an additional test of the potential model. The result obtained compares well with the experimental value. The medium effects on cis/trans convertion of a hypotetical solute in water TIP4P and chloroform solvents were also accomplished. The results obtained from this investigation are in agreement with estimates of the continuous theory of solvation.

Vacancy-assisted domain-growth in asymmetric binary alloys: A Monte Carlo Study

A Monte Carlo simulation study of the vacancy-assisted domain growth in asymmetric binary alloys is presented. The system is modeled using a three-state ABV Hamiltonian which includes an asymmetry term. Our simulated system is a stoichiometric two-dimensional binary alloy with a single vacancy which evolves according to the vacancy-atom exchange mechanism. We obtain that, compared to the symmetric case, the ordering process slows down dramatically. Concerning the asymptotic behavior it is algebraic and characterized by the Allen-Cahn growth exponent x51/2. The late stages of the evolution are preceded by a transient regime strongly affected by both the temperature and the degree of asymmetry of the alloy. The results are discussed and compared to those obtained for the symmetric case.

Monte Carlo simulation of x-ray spectra generated by kilo-electron-volt electrons

We present a general algorithm for the simulation of x-ray spectra emitted from targets of arbitrary composition bombarded with kilovolt electron beams. Electron and photon transport is simulated by means of the general-purpose Monte Carlo code PENELOPE, using the standard, detailed simulation scheme. Bremsstrahlung emission is described by using a recently proposed algorithm, in which the energy of emitted photons is sampled from numerical cross-section tables, while the angular distribution of the photons is represented by an analytical expression with parameters determined by fitting benchmark shape functions obtained from partial-wave calculations. Ionization of K and L shells by electron impact is accounted for by means of ionization cross sections calculated from the distorted-wave Born approximation. The relaxation of the excited atoms following the ionization of an inner shell, which proceeds through emission of characteristic x rays and Auger electrons, is simulated until all vacancies have migrated to M and outer shells. For comparison, measurements of x-ray emission spectra generated by 20 keV electrons impinging normally on multiple bulk targets of pure elements, which span the periodic system, have been performed using an electron microprobe. Simulation results are shown to be in close agreement with these measurements.

Simulação do equilíbrio: o método de Monte Carlo

We make several simulations using the Monte Carlo method in order to obtain the chemical equilibrium for several first-order reactions and one second-order reaction. We study several direct, reverse and consecutive reactions. These simulations show the fluctuations and relaxation time and help to understand the solution of the corresponding differential equations of chemical kinetics. This work was done in an undergraduate physical chemistry course at UNIFIEO.

Simulação Monte Carlo no ensino de luminescência e cinética de decaimento de estados excitados

A software based in the Monte Carlo method have been developed aiming the teaching of important cases of mechanisms found in luminescence and in excited states decay kinetics, including: multiple decays, consecutive decays and coupled systems decays. The Monte Carlo Method allows the student to easily simulate and visualize the luminescence mechanisms, focusing on the probabilities of the related steps. The software CINESTEX was written for FreeBASIC compiler; it assumes first-order kinetics and any number of excited states, where the pathways are allowed with probabilities assigned by the user.

Simulação Monte Carlo de mecanismo de transferência de energia de excitação eletrônica: modelo de Perrin para a supressão estática da luminescência

A software based in the Monte Carlo method has been developed aiming the teaching of the Perrin´s model for static luminescence quenching. This software allows the student to easily simulate the luminescence decays of emissive molecules in the presence of quenching ones. The software named PERRIN was written for FreeBASIC compiler and it can be applied for systems where the molecules remain static during its excited state lifetime. The good agreement found between the simulations and the expected theoretical results shows that it can be used for the luminescence and excited states decay kinetic teaching.