988 resultados para Semi-competing risks
Resumo:
A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.
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Following microprojectile mediated delivery of a plasmid construct (pAHC-25) encoding bar (bialophos resistance) gene into five-day-old scutellar calli derived from mature embryos, the effectiveness of selection procedure for bar-gene expressing tissue was compared for two indica rice cultivars (IR-64 and Karnal Local). While IR-64 transformants could be selected through the generally used semi-solid selection medium, the same procedure was not effective in the basmati cultivar Karnal Local. In the latter case, while lower concentrations (2–4 mg 1−1) of the selective agent phosphinothricin (PPT) yielded only escapes, higher concentrations (6–8 mg l−1) inhibited proliferation of transformed as well as untransformed sectors. For Karnal Local, a liquid medium based selection system was successfully utilized for recovering transformed sectors and, eventually, regenerants. The study demonstrates the generation of transformants of two elite indica cultivars using the environment-independent system of mature embryos from seeds.
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It is often said that Australia is a world leader in rates of copyright infringement for entertainment goods. In 2012, the hit television show, Game of Thrones, was the most downloaded television show over bitorrent, and estimates suggest that Australians accounted for a plurality of nearly 10% of the 3-4 million downloads each week. The season finale of 2013 was downloaded over a million times within 24 hours of its release, and again Australians were the largest block of illicit downloaders over BitTorrent, despite our relatively small population. This trend has led the former US Ambassador to Australia to implore Australians to stop 'stealing' digital content, and rightsholders to push for increasing sanctions on copyright infringers. The Australian Government is looking to respond by requiring Internet Service Providers to issue warnings and potentially punish consumers who are alleged by industry groups to have infringed copyright. This is the logical next step in deterring infringement, given that the operators of infringing networks (like The Pirate Bay, for example) are out of regulatory reach. This steady ratcheting up of the strength of copyright, however, comes at a significant cost to user privacy and autonomy, and while the decentralisation of enforcement reduces costs, it also reduces the due process safeguards provided by the judicial process. This article presents qualitative evidence that substantiates a common intuition: one of the major reasons that Australians seek out illicit downloads of content like Game of Thrones in such numbers is that it is more difficult to access legitimately in Australia. The geographically segmented way in which copyright is exploited at an international level has given rise to a ‘tyranny of digital distance’, where Australians have less access to copyright goods than consumers in other countries. Compared to consumers in the US and the EU, Australians pay more for digital goods, have less choice in distribution channels, are exposed to substantial delays in access, and are sometimes denied access completely. In this article we focus our analysis on premium film and television offerings, like Game of Thrones, and through semi-structured interviews, explore how choices in distribution impact on the willingness of Australian consumers to seek out infringing copies of copyright material. Game of Thrones provides an excellent case study through which to frame this analysis: it is both one of the least legally accessible television offerings and one of the most downloaded through filesharing networks of recent times. Our analysis shows that at the same time as rightsholder groups, particularly in the film and television industries, are lobbying for stronger laws to counter illicit distribution, the business practices of their member organisations are counter-productively increasing incentives for consumers to infringe. The lack of accessibility and high prices of copyright goods in Australia leads to substantial economic waste. The unmet consumer demand means that Australian consumers are harmed by lower access to information and entertainment goods than consumers in other jurisdictions. The higher rates of infringement that fulfils some of this unmet demand increases enforcement costs for copyright owners and imposes burdens either on our judicial system or on private entities – like ISPs – who may be tasked with enforcing the rights of third parties. Most worryingly, the lack of convenient and cheap legitimate digital distribution channels risks undermining public support for copyright law. Our research shows that consumers blame rightsholders for failing to meet market demand, and this encourages a social norm that infringing copyright, while illegal, is not morally wrongful. The implications are as simple as they are profound: Australia should not take steps to increase the strength of copyright law at this time. The interests of the public and those of rightsholders align better when there is effective competition in distribution channels and consumers can legitimately get access to content. While foreign rightsholders are seeking enhanced protection for their interests, increasing enforcement is likely to increase their ability to engage in lucrative geographical price-discrimination, particularly for premium content. This is only likely to increase the degree to which Australian consumers feel that their interests are not being met and, consequently, to further undermine the legitimacy of copyright law. If consumers are to respect copyright law, increasing sanctions for infringement without enhancing access and competition in legitimate distribution channels could be dangerously counter-productive. We suggest that rightsholders’ best strategy for addressing infringement in Australia at this time is to ensure that Australians can access copyright goods in a timely, affordable, convenient, and fair lawful manner.
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Background & Research Focus Managing knowledge for innovation and organisational benefit has been extensively investigated in studies of large firms (Smith, Collins & Clark, 2005; Zucker, et al., 2007) and to a large extent there is limited research into studies of small- and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs). There are some investigations in knowledge management research on SMEs, but what remains to be seen in particular is the question of where are the potential challenges for managing knowledge more effectively within these firms? Effective knowledge management (KM) processes and systems lead to improved performance in pursuing distinct capabilities that contribute to firm-level innovation (Nassim 2009; Zucker et al. 2007; Verona and Ravasi 2003). Managing internal and external knowledge in a way that links it closely to the innovation process can assist the creation and implementation of new products and services. KM is particularly important in knowledge intensive firms where the knowledge requirements are highly specialized, diverse and often emergent. However, to a large extent the KM processes of small firms that are often the source of new knowledge and an important element of the value networks of larger companies have not been closely studied. To address this gap which is of increasing importance with the growing number of small firms, we need to further investigate knowledge management processes and the ways that firms find, capture, apply and integrate knowledge from multiple sources for their innovation process. This study builds on the previous literature and applies existing frameworks and takes the process and activity view of knowledge management as a starting point of departure (see among others Kraaijenbrink, Wijnhoven & Groen, 2007; Enberg, Lindkvist, & Tell, 2006; Lu, Wang & Mao, 2007). In this paper, it is attempted to develop a better understanding of the challenges of knowledge management within the innovation process in small knowledge-oriented firms. The paper aims to explore knowledge management processes and practices in firms that are engaged in the new product/service development programs. Consistent with the exploratory character of the study, the research question is: How is knowledge integrated, sourced and recombined from internal and external sources for innovation and new product development? Research Method The research took an exploratory case study approach and developed a theoretical framework to investigate the knowledge situation of knowledge-intensive firms. Equipped with the conceptual foundation, the research adopted a multiple case study method investigating four diverse Australian knowledge-intensive firms from IT, biotechnology, nanotechnology and biochemistry industries. The multiple case study method allowed us to document in some depth the knowledge management experience of the theses firms. Case study data were collected through a review of company published data and semi-structured interviews with managers using an interview guide to ensure uniform coverage of the research themes. This interview guide was developed following development of the framework and a review of the methodologies and issues covered by similar studies in other countries and used some questions common to these studies. It was framed to gather data around knowledge management activity within the business, focusing on the identification, acquisition and utilisation of knowledge, but collecting a range of information about subject as well. The focus of the case studies was on the use of external and internal knowledge to support their knowledge intensive products and services. Key Findings Firstly a conceptual and strategic knowledge management framework has been developed. The knowledge determinants are related to the nature of knowledge, organisational context, and mechanism of the linkages between internal and external knowledge. Overall, a number of key observations derived from this study, which demonstrated the challenges of managing knowledge and how important KM is as a management tool for innovation process in knowledge-oriented firms. To summarise, findings suggest that knowledge management process in these firms is very much project focused and not embedded within the overall organisational routines and mainly based on ad hoc and informal processes. Our findings highlighted lack of formal knowledge management process within our sampled firms. This point to the need for more specialised capabilities in knowledge management for these firms. We observed a need for an effective knowledge transfer support system which is required to facilitate knowledge sharing and particularly capturing and transferring tacit knowledge from one team members to another. In sum, our findings indicate that building effective and adaptive IT systems to manage and share knowledge in the firm is one of the biggest challenges for these small firms. Also, there is little explicit strategy in small knowledge-intensive firms that is targeted at systematic KM either at the strategic or operational level. Therefore, a strategic approach to managing knowledge for innovation as well as leadership and management are essential to achieving effective KM. In particular, research findings demonstrate that gathering tacit knowledge, internal and external to the organization, and applying processes to ensure the availability of knowledge for innovation teams, drives down the risks and cost of innovation. KM activities and tools, such as KM systems, environmental scanning, benchmarking, intranets, firm-wide databases and communities of practice to acquire knowledge and to make it accessible, were elements of KM. Practical Implications The case study method that used in this study provides practical insight into the knowledge management process within Australian knowledge-intensive firms. It also provides useful lessons which can be used by other firms in managing the knowledge more effectively in the innovation process. The findings would be helpful for small firms that may be searching for a practical method for managing and integrating their specialised knowledge. Using the results of this exploratory study and to address the challenges of knowledge management, this study proposes five practices that are discussed in the paper for managing knowledge more efficiently to improve innovation: (1) Knowledge-based firms must be strategic in knowledge management processes for innovation, (2) Leadership and management should encourage various practices for knowledge management, (3) Capturing and sharing tacit knowledge is critical and should be managed, (4)Team knowledge integration practices should be developed, (5) Knowledge management and integration through communication networks, and technology systems should be encouraged and strengthen. In sum, the main managerial contribution of the paper is the recognition of knowledge determinants and processes, and their effects on the effective knowledge management within firm. This may serve as a useful benchmark in the strategic planning of the firm as it utilises new and specialised knowledge.
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Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper presents a method for making informed decisions about safety treatments by 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones, 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists, 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.
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This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.
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Regulating Workplace Risks is a study of regulatory inspection of occupational health and safety (OHS) and its management in five countries – Australia, Canada (Québec), France, Sweden and the UK – during a time of major change. It examines the implications of the shift from specification to process based regulation, in which attention has been increasingly directed to the means of managing OHS more systematically at a time in which a major restructuring of work has occurred in response to the globalised economy. These changes provide both the context and material for a wider discussion of the nature of regulation and regulatory inspection and their role in protecting the health, safety and well-being of workers in advanced market economies.
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Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making
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Our research examined how projects can draw together the fields of human resource management (HRM) and risk management (RM) to consider workforce-related risks on projects; particularly those with a large contingent workforce. It is argued that RM frameworks could be enhanced by a more comprehensive understanding of the specific potential non-technical “people risks” in projects. The study focussed on the Oil and Gas industry and undertook interviews with experts in the field. The findings are considered within the framework of key HRM areas; Management Practices, General Employment Practices, Staffing, HR Development, and Compensation and Benefits, along with Project Completion. Drawing together RM and HRM in a project environment, our research provides a unique opportunity to identify critical workforce-related risks. Such identification is the first step towards a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and planning for mitigation of such risks in projects.
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The estimated one million Australians with type 2 diabetes face significant risks of morbidity and premature mortality. Inadequate diabetes self-management is associated with poor glycaemic control, which is further impaired by comorbid dysphoria. Regular access to ongoing self-management and psychological support is limited, especially in rural and regional locations. Web-based interventions can provide complementary support to patients’ usual care. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with two samples that comprised (a) 13 people with type 2 diabetes and (b) 12 general practitioners (GPs). Interviews explored enablers and barriers to self-care, emotional challenges, needs for support, and potential web-based programme components. Patients were asked about the potential utility of a web-based support programme, and GPs were asked about likely circumstances of patient referral to it. Thematic analysis was used to summarise responses. Most perceived facilitators and barriers to self-management were similar across the groups. Both groups highlighted the centrality of dietary self-management, valued shared decision-making with health professionals, and endorsed the idea of web-based support. Some emotional issues commonly identified by patients varied to those perceived by GPs, resulting in different attributions for impaired self-care. A web-based programme that supported self-management and psychological/emotional needs appears likely to hold promise in yielding high acceptability and perceived utility.
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This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?
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New public management (NPFM), with its hands-on, private sector-style performance measurement, output control, parsimonious use of resources, disaggreation of public sector units and greater competition in the public sector, has significantly affected charitable and nonprofit organisations delivering community services (Hood, 1991; Dunleavy, 1994; George & Wilding, 2002). The literature indicates that nonprofit organisations under NPM believe they are doing more for less: while administration is increasing, core costs are not being met; their dependence on government funding comes at the expense of other funding strategies; and there are concerns about proportionality and power asymmetries in the relationship (Kerr & Savelsberg, 2001; Powell & Dalton, 2011; Smith, 2002, p. 175; Morris, 1999, 2000a). Government agencies are under increased pressure to do more with less, demonstrate value for money, measure social outcomes, not merely outputs and minimise political risk (Grant, 2008; McGreogor-Lowndes, 2008). Government-community service organisation relationships are often viewed as 'uneasy alliances' characterised by the pressures that come with the parties' differing roles and expectations and the pressures that come with the parties' differing roles and expectations and the pressurs of funding and security (Productivity Commission, 2010, p. 308; McGregor-Lowndes, 2008, p. 45; Morris, 200a). Significant community services are now delivered to citizens through such relationships, often to the most disadvantaged in the community, and it is important for this to be achieved with equity, efficiently and effectively. On one level, the welfare state was seen as a 'risk management system' for the poor, with the state mitigating the risks of sickness, job loss and old age (Giddens, 1999) with the subsequent neoliberalist outlook shifting this risk back to households (Hacker, 2006). At the core of this risk shift are written contracts. Vincent-Jones (1999,2006) has mapped how NPM is characterised by the use of written contracts for all manner of relations; e.g., relgulation of dealings between government agencies, between individual citizens and the state, and the creation of quais-markets of service providers and infrastructure partners. We take this lens of contracts to examine where risk falls in relation to the outsourcing of community services. First we examine the concept of risk. We consider how risk might be managed and apportioned between governments and community serivce organisations (CSOs) in grant agreements, which are quasiy-market transactions at best. This is informed by insights from the law and economics literature. Then, standard grant agreements covering several years in two jurisdictions - Australia and the United Kingdom - are analysed, to establish the risk allocation between government and CSOs. This is placed in the context of the reform agenda in both jurisdictions. In Australia this context is th enonprofit reforms built around the creation of a national charities regulator, and red tape reduction. In the United Kingdom, the backdrop is the THird Way agenda with its compacts, succeed by Big Society in a climate of austerity. These 'case studies' inform a discussion about who is best placed to bear and manage the risks of community service provision on behalf of government. We conclude by identifying the lessons to be learned from our analysis and possible pathways for further scholarship.
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The development of semi aromatic polyamide/organoclays nanocomposites (PANC) is reported in this communication. New polyamide (PA) was successfully synthesized through direct polycondensation reaction between bio-based diacid and aromatic diamine. PA exhibited strong UV vis absorption band at 412 nm. Its photoluminescence spectrum showed maximum band at 511 nm in the green region. The surface modification of montmorillonite was carried out through ion-exchange reaction using 1,4-bis[4-aminophenoxy]butane (APB) as a modifier. Then PANCs containing 3 and 6 wt.% of the modified montmorillonite (MMT-APB) were prepared. Flammability and thermal properties of PA and the nanocomposites were studied by microscale combustion calorimeter (MCC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). TGA results in both air and nitrogen atmospheres indicated improving in thermal properties of PANCs compared to the neat PA. According to MCC analysis, a 31.6% reduction in pHRR value has been achieved by introducing 6 wt.% of the organoclay in PA matrix.
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The nature of the transport system contributes to public health outcomes in a range of ways. The clearest contribution to public health is in the area of traffic crashes, because of their direct impact on individual death and disability and their direct costs to the health system. Other papers in this conference address these issues. This paper outlines some collaborative research between the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) at QUT and Chinese researchers in areas that have indirect health impacts. Heavy vehicle dynamics: The integrity of the road surface influences crash risk, with ruts, pot-holes and other forms of road damage contributing to increased crash risks. The great majority of damage to the road surface from vehicles is caused by heavy trucks and buses, rather than cars or smaller vehicles. In some cases this damage is due to deliberate overloading, but in other cases it is due to vehicle suspension characteristics that lead to occasional high loads on particular wheels. Together with a visiting researcher and his colleagues, we have used both Queensland and Chinese data to model vehicle suspension systems that reduce the level of load, and hence the level of road damage and resulting crash risk(1-5). Toll worker exposure to vehicle emissions: The increasing construction of highways in China has also involved construction of a large number of toll roads. Tollbooth workers are potentially exposed to high levels of pollutants from vehicles, however the extent of this exposure and how it relates to standards for exposure are not well known. In a study led by a visiting researcher, we conducted a study to model these levels of exposure for a tollbooth in China(6). Noise pollution: The increasing presence of high speed roads in China has contributed to an increase in noise levels. In this collaborative study we modelled noise levels associated with a freeway widening near a university campus, and measures to reduce the noise(7). Along with these areas of research, there are many other areas of transport with health implications that are worthy of exploration. Traffic, noise and pollution contribute to a difficult environment for pedestrians, especially in an ageing society where there are health benefits to increasing physical activity. By building on collaborations such as those outlined, there is potential for a contribution to improved public health by addressing transport issues such as vehicle factors and pollution, and extending the research to other areas of travel activity. 1. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2014). Stiffness-damping matching method of an ECAS system based on LQG control. Journal of Central South University, 21:439-446. DOI: 10.1007/s1177101419579 2. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Feng, Z. and Chang, W. (2013). Comparison of two suspension control strategies for multi-axle heavy truck. Journal of Central South University, 20(2): 550-562. 3. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Effect of driving conditions and suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Science China Technological Sciences, 56(3): 666-676. DOI: 10.1007/s11431-012-5091-3 4. Chen, Y., He., J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Model development and dynamic load-sharing analysis of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Strojniški Vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 59(1):14-24. 5. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Liu, H. and Zhang, W. (2013). Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-1117. 6. He, J., Qi, Z., Hang, W., King, M., and Zhao, C. (2011). Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models. Transportation Research Part C, 19(2011):510-520. 7. Zhang, C., He, J., Wang, Z., Yin, R. and King, M. (2013). Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-2016.
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While the philosophical motivation behind Civil Infrastructure Management Systems is to achieve optimal level of service at a minimum cost, the allocation of scarce resources among competing alternatives is still a matter of debate. It appears to be widely accepted that results from tradeoff analysis can be measured by the degree of accomplishment of the objectives. Road management systems not only deal with different asset types but also with conflicting objectives. This paper presents a case study of lifecycle optimization with tradeoff analysis for a road corridor in New Brunswick. Objectives of the study included condition of bridge and roads and road safety. A road safety index was created based on potential for improvement. Road condition was based on roughness, rutting and cracking. Initial results show lack of sustainability in bridge performance. Therefore, bridges where broken by components: deck, superstructure and substructure. Visual inspections, in addition to construction age of each bridge, were combined to generate a surrogate apparent age. Two life cycle analysis were conducted; one aimed to minimize overall cost while achieving sustainable results and another one purely for optimization. -used to identify required levels of budget. Such analyses were used to identify the minimum required budget and to demonstrate that with the same amount of money it was possible to achieve better levels of performance. Dominance and performance driven criteria were combined to identify and select an optimal result. It was found that achievement of optimally sustained results is conditioned by the availability of treatments for all asset classes at across their life spans. For the case study a disaggregated bridge condition index was introduced to the original algorithm to attempt to achieve sustainability in all bridges components, however lack of early stage treatments for substructures produce declining trends for such a component.