Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Pelagic molybdenum concentration anomalies and the impact of sediment resuspension on the molybdenum budget in two tidal systems of the North Sea

The seasonal dynamics of molybdenum (Mo) were studied in the water column of two tidal basins of the German Wadden Sea (Sylt-Rømø and Spiekeroog) between 2007 and 2011. In contrast to its conservative behaviour in the open ocean, both, losses of more than 50% of the usual concentration level of Mo in seawater and enrichments up to 20% were observed repeatedly in the water column of the study areas. During early summer, Mo removal by adsorption on algae-derived organic matter (e.g. after Phaeocystis blooms) is postulated to be a possible mechanism. Mo bound to organic aggregates is likely transferred to the surface sediment where microbial decomposition enriches Mo in the pore water. First δ98/95Mo data of the study area disclose residual Mo in the open water column being isotopically heavier than MOMo (Mean Ocean Molybdenum) during a negative Mo concentration anomaly, whereas suspended particulate matter shows distinctly lighter values. Based on field observations a Mo isotope enrichment factor of ε = −0.3‰ has been determined which was used to argue against sorption on metal oxide surfaces. It is suggested here that isotope fractionation is caused by biological activity and association to organic matter. Pelagic Mo concentration anomalies exceeding the theoretical salinity-based concentration level, on the other hand, cannot be explained by replenishment via North Sea waters alone and require a supply of excess Mo. Laboratory experiments with natural anoxic tidal flat sediments and modelled sediment displacement during storm events suggest fast and effective Mo release during the resuspension of anoxic sediments in oxic seawater as an important process for a recycling of sedimentary sulphide bound Mo into the water column.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Eemian and Holocene sea-surface conditions in the southern Black Sea: organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record from core 22-GC3

In order to compare the sea-surface conditions in the Black Sea during the Holocene and Eemian, sapropelic parts of marine core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N/36°29.55′E, 838 m water depth) were studied for organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. The record shows a change from freshwater/brackish assemblages (Pyxidinopsis psilata, Spiniferites cruciformis, and Caspidinium rugosum) to more marine assemblages (Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites ramosus complex) during each interglacial, due to the inflow of saline Mediterranean water. The lacustrine–marine transitions in 22-GC3 occurred at ~ 8.3 cal kyr BP during the early Holocene and ~ 128 kyr BP during the early Eemian, slightly later compared to the onset of interglacial conditions on the adjacent land. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveal higher sea-surface salinity (~ 28–30) (e.g. Spiniferites pachydermus, Bitectatodinium tepikiense, and Spiniferites mirabilis) around ~ 126.5–121 kyr BP in comparison to the Holocene (~ 15–20) as well as relatively high sea-surface temperature (e.g. Tuberculodinium vancampoae, S. pachydermus, and S. mirabilis) especially at ~ 127.6–125.3 kyr BP. Establishment of high sea-surface salinity during the Eemian correlates very well with reconstructed relatively high global sea-level and is explained as a combined effect of increased Mediterranean supply and high temperatures at the beginning of the last interglacial. The observed changes in the dinocyst record highlight the importance of nutrients for the composition of the Eemian and Holocene dinocyst assemblages.

Antarctic Glacial History Since the Last Glacial Maximum: An Overview of the Record on Land

This overview examines available circum-Antarctic glacial history archives on land, related to developments after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It considers the glacial-stratigraphic and morphologic records and also biostratigraphical information from moss banks, lake sediments and penguin rookeries, with some reference to relevant glacial marine records. It is concluded that Holocene environmental development in Antarctica differed from that in the Northern Hemisphere. The initial deglaciation of the shelf areas surrounding Antarctica took place before 10000 C-14 yrs before present(sp), and was controlled by rising global sea level. This was followed by the deglaciation of some presently ice-free inner shelf and land areas between 10000 and 8000 yr sp. Continued deglaciation occurred gradually between 8000 yr sp and 5000 yr sp. Mid-Holocene glacial readvances are recorded from various sites around Antarctica. There are strong indications of a circum-Antarctic climate warmer than today 4700-2000 yr sp. The best dated records from the Antarctic Peninsula and coastal Victoria Land suggest climatic optimums there from 4000-3000 yr sp and 3600-2600 yr sp, respectively. Thereafter Neoglacial readvances are recorded. Relatively limited glacial expansions in Antarctica during the past few hundred years correlate with the Little Ice Age in the Northern Hemisphere.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition

Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the deliv-ery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is amajor component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as inexperimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional compositionand 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We alsointroduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according torealistic land-use objectives. We found that indirect land-use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodi-versity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average.Their strength varied with land-use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explainedindirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land-useobjectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts,towards fast-growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherentlyunproductive grasslands.

The formalization fix? Land titling and land concessions in Cambodia

Issuing land titles to smallholder farmers has long been embraced as a way to promote lending and land markets, but is increasingly being reframed as a way to protect smallholders from irresponsible agricultural investment. This brief examines the case of Cambodia, where over the last decade extensive land titling efforts have occurred alongside a wave of large-scale land concessions. The problem, however, is that titling has failed to live up to the rhetoric of systematic coverage, and has often focused on areas where tenure was already relatively secure. Areas outside the titling zone, in contrast, have become formalized de facto through the process of granting land concessions to investors. This undermines pro-poor development significantly.

Sand geochemistry on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

A total of 167 samples distubuted throughout the CRP-3 drillhole from 5.77 to 787.68 mbsf and representing fine to coarse sandstones have been analysed by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) Bulk sample geochemistry (major and trace elements) indicates a dominant provenance of detritus from the Ferrar Supergroup in the uppermost 200 mbsf of the core. A markedly increased contribution from the Beacon sandstones is recognized below 200 mbsf and down to 600 mbsf. In the lower part of CRP-3, down to 787.68 mbsf, geochemical evidence for influxes of Ferrar materials is again recorded. On the basis of preliminary magnetostratigraphic data reported for the lower 447 mbsf of the drillhole, we tentatively evaluated the main periodicities modulating the geochemical records. Our results identify a possible influence of the precession, obliquity and long-eccentricity astronomical components (21, 41, and 400 ky frequency bands) on the deposition mechanisms of the studied glaciomarine sediments.

Geochemistry of bulk samples and various minerals of sediment core CRP-1 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Thirty-nine medium and fine grained sandstones from between 19,26 and 147,23 mbsf in the Cape Roberts-l core (CRP-1) were analysed for 10 major and 16 trace elements. Using whole-lock compositions, 9 samples were selected for analyses of mineral and glass grains by energy dispersive electron microscope. Laser-Ablation Mass-Spectrometry was used to determine rare earth elements and 14 additional trace elements in glass shards, pyroxenes and feldspars in order to examine their contribution to the bulk rock chemistry. Geochemical data reveal the major contribution played by the Granite Harbour Intrusives to the whole rock composition, even if a significant input is supplied by McMurdo volcanics and Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes McMurdo volcanics were studied in detail; they appeal to derive from a variety of litologies, and a dominant role of wind transpoitation from exposures of volcanic rocks may be inferred from the contemporary occurrence of different compositions at all depths. Only at 116.55 mbsf was a thin layer of tephra found, linked to an explosive eruption McMurdo volcanic rocks exhibit larger abundances at depths above 62 mbsf, in correspondence with the onset of volcanic activity in the McMurdo Sound area. From 62 mbsf to the bottom of the core, McMurdo volcanics are less abundant and probably issued from some centres in the McMurdo Sound region. However, available data do not allow the exclusion of wind transport from some eruptive centres active in north Victoria Land at the beginning of the Miocene Epoch.

Facies distribution in CRP sediment cores from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Clasts from the Cape Roberts Project cores CRP-2/2A and CRP-3 provide indications of glacially influenced depositional environments in Oligocene and Miocene strata in the western Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica. CRP-2/2A is interpreted to represent strongly glacially influenced, unconformity bound depositional sequences produced by repeated advance and retreat of floating and grounded ice across the shelf. A similar interpretation is extended to the upper 330 meters of the CRP-3 core, but the lower part of the core records shallow marine deposition with significantly less glacial influence. Clast shape analysis from selected coarse-grained facies throughout the cored interval indicates that most clasts are glacially sourced, with little distinction between diamictite and conglomeratic facies. Three dimensional clast fabric analysis from units immediately above sequence boundaries generally display weak or random fabrics and do not suggest that grounded ice actually reached the drillsite at these intervals. Striated and outsized clasts present in fine-grained lithofacies throughout the cores provide further evidence of sub-glacially transported sediment and iceberg rafting. The distribution of these striated and out-sized clasts indicate that a significant glacial influence persisted through most of the time represented by the cores with glaciers actively calving at sea-level introducing ice-berg rafted glacial debris even in the earliest Oligocene.

A relationship between aerosol transport and compound-specific d13C land plant biomarker and pollen records

We examined near-surface, late Holocene deep-sea sediments at nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) along the Southwest African continental margin. Contents, distribution patterns and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) are indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types, which can be correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in the same sediments. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories and satellite Aerosol Index imagery afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen on land and their transport pathways to the ocean sites. This multidisciplinary approach on an almost continental scale provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in lipid and pollen composition paralleling the major phytogeographic zonations on the adjacent continent. Dust and smoke aerosols are mainly derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semi-deserts and savannah regions rich in C4 and CAM plants. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin), which get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands, may also receive some material from the Chad region. Very little aerosol from the African continent is transported to the most southerly sites in the Cape Basin. As can be expected from the present position of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of the n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. The results of the study suggest that this combination of pollen data and compound-specific isotope geochemical proxies can be effectively applied in the reconstruction of past continental phytogeographic developments.

Ostracoda in sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

A total of eighteen species of marine ostracods, in at least twelve genera, have been recovered from Early and Late Oligocene glacio-marine sediments from boreholes CRP-3 and CRP-2/2A in the Victoria Land Basin, Ross Sea, Antarctica. Faunas are sparse and generally moderately-well preserved. Previously, three species or closely related species have been recorded only from glacial settings (Kuiperiana meridionalislain (Müller), Australicythere polylyca (Müller), Hemicytheridea aff. H. kinggeorgeensis Blaszyk), but palaeotemperatures somewhat higher than at present in the Ross Sea are suggested by the presence of Austrocythere reticulotuberculata Hartmann, Cluthia aff. C. antiqua Ayress & Drapala and Cytherella? sp. 4796. Majungaella sp. 4471 is an enigmatic component, representing a genus previously known only from warm Cretaceous and Eocene, and relatively warm interglacial Pliocene habitats in southern Gondwana and the Antarctic Peninsula. Palaeobiogeographical considerations indicate that during Early Oligocene times, the Ross Sea area had faunal links with both Antarctic Peninsula/South America and southern Australasia. Three species present in the Early Oligocene glacial environments at Cape Roberts have survived to the Recent in the cool-cold Antarctic/Sub-Antarctic region: Austrocythere reticulotuberculata Hartmann, Australicythere polylyca (Müller), and Kuiperiana meridionalis (Müller).

Geochemistry and sea-surface temperature reconstruction for sediment cores of the Iberian Margin

Biogenic records of the marine palaeoproductivity (carbonates, organic carbon, and C37 alkenones) and the molecular stratigraphy of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs; UK'37) were studied at high resolution in two cores of the Iberian Margin. The comparison of these records indicates that the oceanographic conditions switched abruptly during the past 160 kyr between three kinds of regimes. A first regime with high (17-22°C) SST and low productivity typifies the interglacial periods, marine isotopic stages (MIS) 5 and 1. Several periods during MIS 6, 2, and the terminations II and I are characterised by about 4-5°C colder SST and a higher organic matter accumulation, both of which define the second regime. This anticorrelation between SST and marine productivity suggests that these variations are related to the intensity of the coastal upwelling. By contrast with this upwelling behaviour, extremely low biological productivity and very cold SST (6-12°C) occurred during short phases of glacial MIS 6, 4, and 2, and as abrupt events (~1 kyr or less) during MIS 3. The three oceanographic regimes are consistent with micropalaeontological changes in the same cores based on foraminifera and diatoms. The general trend of these hydrologic changes follows the long-term glacial/interglacial cycle, but the millennium scale variability is clearly related to Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. Strengthening of the upwelling corresponds probably to an intensification of the subtropical atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic which was influenced by the presence of continental ice sheets. However, extreme glacial conditions due to massive discharges of icebergs interrupted the upwelling. Interestingly, both terminations II and I coincided with strong but transient intensification of the upwelling.