Development of a clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after exercise and dobutamine echocardiograms

The prognostic value of exercise (EXE) and dobutamine echocardiograms (DbE) has been well defined in large studies. However, while risk is determined by both clinical and echo features, no simple means of combining these data has been defined. We sought to combine these data into risk scores. Methods. At 3 expert centers, 7650 pts underwent standard EXE (n=5211) and DbE (w2439) for evaluation of known or suspected CAD and were followed for up to 10 years (mean 5-2) for major events (death or myocardial infarction). A subgroup of 2953 EXE and 1025 DbE pts was randomly selected to develop separate multivariate models for prediction of events. After simplication of each model for clinical use, models were validated in the remaining EXE and DbE pts. ResuI1s. The total number of events was 200 in the EXE and 225 in the DbE pts, of which 58 and 99 events occurred in the respective testing groups. The following regression equations gave equivalent results I” the testing and validation groups for both EXE and DbE; DbE = (Age’O.02) + (DM’l .O) + (Low RPP’0.6) + ([CHF+lschemia+Scar]‘O.7) EXE = ([DM+CHF]‘O.S) + O.S(lschemla #) + l.B(Scar#) - (METS0.19) (where each categorical variable scored 1 when present and 0 when absent, Ischemia# = 1 for l-2 VD. 6 for 3 VD; Scar# = 1 for 1-2 VD, 1.7 for 3 VD). The table summarizes the scores and equivalent outcomes for EXE and DbE. Conclusions. Risk scores based on clinical and EXE or DbE results may be used to quantify the risk of events during follow-up.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

A flexible cost function model with risk

In examining bank cost efficiency in banking inclusion of risk-taking of banks is very important. In this paper we depart from the standard modeling approach and view risk intimately related to the technology. Thus, instead of controlling for risk by viewing them as covariates in the standard cost function we argue that the technology differs with risk, thereby meaning that the parameters of the parametric cost function changes with risk in a fully flexible manner. This is accomplished by viewing the parameters of the cost function as nonparametric functions of risk. We also control for country-specific effects in a fully flexible manner by using them as arguments of the nonparametric functions along with the risk variable. The resulting cost function then becomes semiparametric. The standard parametric model becomes a special case of our semiparametric model. We use the above modeling approach for banks in the EU countries. Actually, European financial integration is seen as a stepping stone for the development of a competitive single EU market that promotes efficiency and increases consumer welfare, changing the risk profile of the European banks. Particularly, financial integration allows more risk diversification and permits banks to use more advanced risk management instruments and systems, however it has at the same time increased the probability of systematic risks. Financial integration has increased the risk of contagion and changed its nature and scope. Consequently the bank’s risk seems to be an important issue to be investigated.

A randomized, prospective clinical trial to assess the potential infection risk associated with the PosiFlow® needleless connector

The microbial contamination rate of luers of central venous catheters (CVCs) with either PosiFlow® needleless connectors or standard caps attached was investigated. The efficacy of 70% (v/v) isopropyl alcohol, 0.5% (w/v) chlorhexidine in gluconate 70% (v/v) isopropyl alcohol and 10% (w/v) aqueous povidone-iodine to disinfect the intravenous connections was also assessed. Seventy-seven patients undergoing cardiac surgery who required a CVC as part of their clinical management were randomly allocated either needleless connectors or standard caps. Patients were also designated to receive chlorhexidine/alcohol, isopropyl alcohol or povidone-iodine for pre-CVC insertion skin preparation and disinfection of the connections. After 72 h in situ the microbial contamination rate of 580 luers, 306 with standard caps and 274 with needleless connectors attached, was determined. The microbial contamination rate of the external compression seals of 274 needleless connectors was also assessed to compare the efficacy of the three disinfectants. The internal surfaces of 55 out of 306 (18%) luers with standard caps were contaminated with micro-organisms, whilst only 18 out of 274 (6.6%) luers with needleless connectors were contaminated (P<0.0001). Of those needleless connectors disinfected with isopropyl alcohol, 69.2% were externally contaminated with micro-organisms compared with 30.8% disinfected with chlorhexidine/alcohol (P<0.0001) and 41.6% with povidone-iodine (P<0.0001). These results suggest that the use of needleless connectors may reduce the microbial contamination rate of CVC luers compared with the standard cap. Furthermore, disinfection of needleless connectors with either chlorhexidine/alcohol or povidone-iodine significantly reduced external microbial contamination. Both these strategies may reduce the risk of catheter-related infections acquired via the intraluminal route. © 2003 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cervicovaginal vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and risk of preterm birth (PTB)

Objective - During pregnancy, the human cervix undergoes angiogenic transformations. VEGF is expressed in cervical stroma and is proposed to play key roles in the process of cervical ripening and dilation. This study was conducted to evaluate whether cervical secretion of VEGF can be of clinical value in predicting impending PTB. Study Design - In an observational prospective cohort study, we analyzed cervical fluid samples from 103 pregnant women (GA: median [IQR]: 28 [25-31] wks) who presented for either a routine prenatal visit (n=61) or for evaluation of threatened preterm labor (n=42). Cervical secretions were collected under a standard protocol which was followed in all cases. Cervical length (CL) was assessed by transvaginal ultrasound using well-established criteria. Dilation was evaluated by digital exam performed only after collection of the biological samples. VEGF levels were immunoassayed by investigators unaware of the clinical outcome. Main exclusion criteria were ruptured membranes, active labor, vaginal bleeding, vaginal exam or intercourse within 24h. Results were analyzed with and without normalization for total protein. Results - 1) Clinical characteristics of the cohort are presented in Table;2) VEGF was detectable in all specimens, with no correlation between its levels, CL, twins or GA at collection; 3) There was an inverse correlation between VEGF and cervical dilation (R=-0.646, P=0.003); 4) Women with cervical dilation =1 cm had lower VEGF compared to those with a closed cervix (P=0.003); 5) Women who experienced PTB within 14 days (n=11) had lower VEGF (P=0.003); 6) A free VEGF level of =600 pg/mL had a sensitivity, specificity, +LR and -LR of 70%, 95%, 13.5 and 0.3, respectively in predicting PTB within 14 days. Conclusions - Low VEGF levels in the cervicovaginal secretions of pregnant women are associated with an increased risk of PTB within 2 weeks of collection. Active engagement of VEGF in the process of cervical ripening and dilatation and/or increased affinity of extracellular matrix components for VEGF may provide explanation for our findings.

Understanding the risk of hypoglycaemia in older individuals with diabetes

Introduction: Although older individuals are more prone to hypoglycaemia, it is not known if they have sufficient understanding of the risks of hypoglycaemia or the factors that predispose to it. We evaluated the effectiveness of hypoglycaemia education and examined the factors that increased susceptibility to hypoglycaemia among older people with diabetes. Methods: Forty-five patients (male/female) aged >65 years and known to have diabetes were identified through outpatient clinics at a secondary care hospital. Information relating to education received, awareness of hypoglycaemia and associated risk factors was collected using a standard questionnaire. Additionally, data regarding demographics, treatment regimes, patient attitudes, hypoglycaemic awareness and risks and barriers to self-management of diabetes was collected. Patients were categorised as low, moderate and high risk based on their responses. Independent sample t-tests and Analysis of Variance were carried out to identify factors contributing to high hypoglycaemic risk. Results: Overall, 70% of the patients reported receiving education about hypoglycaemia from health professionals and 95% of them reported good understanding of hypoglycaemia and were able to self-test. Proportion of women receiving education was, however, lower than men (52% women versus 88% men). Compared with men, women were less likely to recognise (59 versus 73%), or act appropriately to a hypoglycaemic episode (59 versus 78%). The mean number of hypoglycaemic episodes per year (41 versus 12) and the duration of hypoglycaemia (9.9 versus 6.3 min) was also greater among women compared with men. The duration of diabetes (P = 0.018), female gender, type 1 diabetes (0.002) and lack awareness of medications causing hypos (P = 0.006) were strong predictors of hypoglycaemia risk. Conclusions: There are significant gaps in education around hypoglycaemia in older people with diabetes. Women, people with longer duration and type 1 diabetes in particular, need additional attention and future educational initiatives need to address these issues.  

Cardiovascular risk factors in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes living in the Netherlands

The cross sectional study investigated the association of tobacco smoke, vitamin D status, anthropometric parameters, and kidney function in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) living in the Netherlands. Study sample included a total of 110 participants aged 30 years and older (males= 46; females= 64). Serum cotinine, a biomarker for smoke exposure, was measured with a solid-phase competitive chemiluminescent immunoassay. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA). Measures of obesity including: body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC) were measured. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. Urine albumin was measured by immunoturbidimetric assay. Urine creatinine was determined using the Jaffe method. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS, version 19.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Independent samples t-test, chi-squared tests, multiple linear regression and logistic regression analysis were used. Cotinine levels were positively associated with cholesterol to HDL ratio and atherosclerosis-index. Serum 25(OH)D levels were negatively associated with diastolic blood pressure. Gender-specific associations between anthropometric measures and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were observed. Hs-CRP was positively associated with WC and WHR in males and WHtR in females. Microalbuminuria (MAU), as determined by albumin-to-creatinine ratio, was present in 21% of the Turkish immigrants with T2D. Participants with hypertension were 6.58 times more likely (adjusted odds ratio) to have positive MAU as compared to normotensive participants. Our findings indicate that serum cotinine, 25(OH)D, hs-CRP, and MAU may be assessed as a standard of care for T2D management in the Turkish immigrant population. Further research should be conducted following cohorts to determine the effects of these biomarkers on CVD morbidity and mortality.

Comparison of Common Field/Clinical Measures to Standard Laboratory Measures of Hydration Status

Context: Accurately determining hydration status is a preventative measure for exertional heat illnesses (EHI). Objective: To determine the validity of various field measures of urine specific gravity (Usg) compared to laboratory instruments. Design: Observational research design to compare measures of hydration status: urine reagent strips (URS) and a urine color (Ucol) chart to a refractometer. Setting: We utilized the athletic training room of a Division I-A collegiate American football team. Participants: Trial 1 involved urine samples of 69 veteran football players (age=20.1+1.2yr; body mass=229.7+44.4lb; height=72.2+2.1in). Trial 2 involved samples from 5 football players (age=20.4+0.5yr; body mass=261.4+39.2lb; height=72.3+2.3in). Interventions: We administered the Heat Illness Index Score (HIIS) Risk Assessment, to identify athletes at-risk for EHI (Trial 1). For individuals “at-risk” (Trial 2), we collected urine samples before and after 15 days of pre-season “two-a-day” practices in a hot, humid environment(mean on-field WBGT=28.84+2.36oC). Main Outcome Measures: Urine samples were immediately analyzed for Usg using a refractometer, Diascreen 7® (URS1), Multistix® (URS2), and Chemstrip10® (URS3). Ucol was measured using Ucol chart. We calculated descriptive statistics for all main measures; Pearson correlations to assess relationships between the refractometer, each URS, and Ucol, and transformed Ucol data to Z-scores for comparison to the refractometer. Results: In Trial 1, we found a moderate relationship (r=0.491, p<.01) between URS1 (1.020+0.006μg) and the refractometer (1.026+0.010μg). In Trial 2, we found marked relationships for Ucol (5.6+1.6shades, r=0.619, p<0.01), URS2 (1.019+0.008μg, r=0.712, p<0.01), and URS3 (1.022+0.007μg, r=0.689, p<0.01) compared to the refractometer (1.028+0.008μg). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that URS were inconsistent between manufacturers, suggesting practitioners use the clinical refractometer to accurately determine Usg and monitor hydration status.

The impact of gestational age and fetal weight on the risk of failure of spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data about spinal dosing for cesarean delivery in preterm parturients. We investigated the hypothesis that preterm gestation is associated with an increased incidence of inadequate spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery compared with term gestation. METHODS: We searched our perioperative database for women who underwent cesarean delivery under spinal or combined spinal-epidural anesthesia with hyperbaric bupivacaine ⩾10.5mg. The primary outcome was the incidence of inadequate surgical anesthesia needing conversion to general anesthesia or repetition or supplementation of the block. We divided patients into four categories: <28, 28 to <32, 32 to <37 and ⩾37weeks of gestation. The chi-square test was used to compare failure rates and a multivariable regression analysis was performed to investigate potential confounders of the relationship between gestational age and failure. RESULTS: A total of 5015 patients (3387 term and 1628 preterm) were included. There were 278 failures (5.5%). The incidence of failure was higher in preterm versus term patients (6.4% vs. 5.1%, P=0.02). Failure rates were 10.8%, 7.7%, 5.3% and 5% for <28, 28 to <32, 32 to <37 and ⩾37weeks of gestation, respectively. In the multivariable model, low birth weight (P<0.0001), gestational age (P=0.03), ethnicity (P=0.02) and use of combined spinal-epidural anesthesia (P<0.0001) were significantly associated with failure. CONCLUSIONS: At standard spinal doses of hyperbaric bupivacaine used in our practice (⩾10.5mg), there were higher odds of inadequate surgical anesthesia in preterm parturients. When adjusting for potential confounders, low birth weight was the main factor associated with failure.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Relationship of Diet Quality and Blood Serum Lipid Levels in a Population at High Risk for Diabetes: The Strong Heart Family Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers

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Enhanced flat adenoma detection rate with high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan for average-risk colorectal cancer screening

Background and aim: The usefulness of high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan (HD+i-SCAN) for average-risk colorectal cancer screening has not been fully assessed. The detection rate of adenomas and other measurements such as the number of adenomas per colonoscopy and the flat adenoma detection rate have been recognized as markers of colonoscopy quality. The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic performance of an HD+i-SCAN with that of standard resolution white-light colonoscope. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected screening colonoscopy database. A comparative analysis of the diagnostic yield of an HD+i-SCAN or standard resolution colonoscopy for average-risk colorectal screening was conducted. Results: During the period of study, 155/163 (95.1%) patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 56.9 years. Sixty of 155 (39%) colonoscopies were performed using a HD+i-SCAN. Adenoma-detection-rates during the withdrawal of the standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 29.5% and 30% (p = n.s.). Adenoma/colonoscopy values for standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 0.46 (SD = 0.9) and 0.72 (SD = 1.3) (p = n.s.). A greater number of flat adenomas were detected in the HD+i-SCAN group (6/60 vs. 2/95) (p < .05). Likewise, serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy were also higher in the HD+i-SCAN group. Conclusions: A HD+i-SCAN colonoscopy increases the flat adenoma detection rate and serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy compared to a standard colonoscopy in average-risk screening population. HD+i-SCAN is a simple, available procedure that can be helpful, even for experienced providers. The performance of HD+i-SCAN and substantial prevalence of flat lesions in our average-risk screening cohort support its usefulness in improving the efficacy of screening colonoscopies.