DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

A geographic analysis of liver cancer mortality and alcohol dependence or abuse in Texas and the U.S., 1980--2003

Background. Liver cancer mortality continues to be a significant factor in deaths worldwide and in the U.S., yet there remains a lack of studies on how mortality burden is impacted by racial groups or by heavy alcohol use. This study evaluated the geographic distribution of liver cancer mortality across population groups in Texas and the U.S. over a 24-year period, as well as determining whether alcohol dependence or abuse correlates with mortality rates. ^ Methods. The Spatial Scan Statistic was used to identify regions of excess liver cancer mortality in Texas counties and the U.S. from 1980 to 2003. The statistic was conducted with a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk, and all analyses used publicly available data. Alcohol abuse data by state and ethnicity were extracted from SAMHSA datasets for the study period 2000–2004. ^ Results. The results of the geographic analysis of liver cancer mortality in both Texas and the U.S. indicate that there were four and seven regions, respectively, that were identified as having statistically significant excess mortality rates with elevated relative risks ranging from 1.38–2.07 and 1.05–1.623 (p = 0.001), respectively. ^ Conclusion. This study revealed seven regions of excess mortality of liver cancer mortality across the U.S. and four regions of excess mortality in Texas between 1980–2003, as well as demonstrated a correlation between elevated liver cancer mortality rates and reporting of alcohol dependence among Hispanics and Other populations. ^

Decomposition of $\rm R\times C$ contingency table chi -square: Application to binned DNA fragment size data and population structure analysis

The purpose of this research is to develop a new statistical method to determine the minimum set of rows (R) in a R x C contingency table of discrete data that explains the dependence of observations. The statistical power of the method will be empirically determined by computer simulation to judge its efficiency over the presently existing methods. The method will be applied to data on DNA fragment length variation at six VNTR loci in over 72 populations from five major racial groups of human (total sample size is over 15,000 individuals; each sample having at least 50 individuals). DNA fragment lengths grouped in bins will form the basis of studying inter-population DNA variation within the racial groups are significant, will provide a rigorous re-binning procedure for forensic computation of DNA profile frequencies that takes into account intra-racial DNA variation among populations. ^

Grain size investigations of sediments off the coast of Istria

Composition, grain-size distribution, and areal extent of Recent sediments from the Northern Adriatic Sea along the Istrian coast have been studied. Thirty one stations in four sections vertical to the coast were investigated; for comparison 58 samples from five small bays were also analyzed. Biogenic carbonate sediments are deposited on the shallow North Adriatic shelf off the Istrian coast. Only at a greater distance from the coast are these carbonate sediments being mixed with siliceous material brought in by the Alpine rivers Po, Adige, and Brenta. Graphical analysis of grain-size distribution curves shows a sediment composition of normally three, and only in the most seaward area, of four major constituents. Constituent 1 represents the washed-in terrestrial material of clay size (Terra Rossa) from the Istrian coastal area. Constituent 2 consists of fine to medium sand. Constituent 3 contains the heterogeneous biogenic material. Crushing by organisms and by sediment eaters reduces the coarse biogenic material into small pieces generating constituent 2. Between these two constituents there is a dynamic equilibrium. Depending upon where the equilibrium is, between the extremes of production and crushing, the resulting constituent 2 is finer or coarser. Constituent 4 is composed of the fine sandy material from the Alpine rivers. In the most seaward area constituents 2 and 4 are mixed. The total carbonate content of the samples depends on the distance from the coast. In the near coastal area in high energy environments, the carbonate content is about 80 %. At a distance of 2 to 3 km from the coast there is a carbonate minimum because of the higher rate of sedimentation of clay-sized terrestrial, noncarbonate material at extremely low energy environments. In an area between 5 and 20 km off the coast, the carbonate content is about 75 %. More than 20 km from the shore, the carbonate content diminishes rapidly to values of about 30 % through mixing with siliceous material from the Alpine rivers. The carbonate content of the individual fractions increases with increasing grain-size to a maximum of about 90 % within the coarse sand fractions. Beyond 20 km from the coast the samples show a carbonate minimum of about 13 % within the sand-size classes from 1.5 to 0.7 zeta¬? through mixing with siliceous material from the alpine rivers. By means of grain-size distribution and carbonate content, four sediment zones parallel to the coast were separated. Genetically they are closely connected with the zonation of the benthic fauna. Two cores show a characteristic vertical distribution of the sediment. The surface zone is inversely graded, that means the coarse fractions are at the top and the fine fractions are at the bottom. This is the effect of crushing of the biogenic material produced at the surface by predatory organisms and by sediment eaters. lt is proposed that at a depth of about 30 cm a chemical solution process begins which leads to diminution of the original sediment from a fine to medium sand to a silt. The carbonate content decreases from about 75 % at the surface to 65 % at a depth of 100 cm. The increase of the noncarbonate components by 10 % corresponds to a decrease in the initial amount of sediment (CaC03=75 %) by roughly 30 % through solution. With increasing depth the carbonate content of the individual fractions becomes more and more uniform. At the surface the variation is from 30 % to 90 %, at the bottom it varies only between 50 % and 75 %. Comparable investigations of small-bay sediments showed a c1ear dependence of sediment/faunal zonation from the energy of the environment. The investigations show that the composition and three-dimensional distribution of the Istrian coastal sediments can not be predicted only from one or a few measurable factors. Sedimentation and syngenetic changes must be considered as a complex interaction between external factors and the actions of producing and destroying organisms that are in dynamic equilibrium. The results obtained from investigations of these recent sediments may be of value for interpreting fossil sediments only with strong limitations.

Abundance and size composition of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi population in the Caspian Sea on 2001-06-24 to 2001-07-01

Abundance and size distribution of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in different parts of the Caspian Sea were studied in summer 2001 in relation to environmental conditions. In general, principal differences were found in M. leidyi abundance and population reproduction activity in northern-, middle- and southern Caspian waters. Ctenophore was practically absent in the northern Caspian. In the west of the middle Caspian Sea it penetrated far to the north demonstrating low reproduction activity. In the east the first single comb jellies were pointed out only in the most south of the region. In the warmest and most productive southern part of the Caspian Sea several zones of M. leidyi active breeding were found with total abundance exceeding 6000 #/m**2. Breeding activity and abundance of ctenophores increased here from the east to the west exceeding maximum values along the western coast of the southern Caspian Sea in regions of intensive sprat catching. Dependence of M. leidyi population development on temperature conditions was mentioned. On the base of remote sensed surface temperature, chlorophyll, and suspended mater distribution analysis possible ctenophore settling mechanisms by mesoscale dynamic structures were examined. Practical applications of obtained results are discussed for using effective biological methods to prevent catastrophic consequences of M. leidyi invasion to the Caspian Sea.

Crystal size variations in Eemian-age ice from the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland

Continuous measurements of ice crystal size have been carried out on an 80 m sequence between 2790 and 2870 m depth in the GRIP ice core from Central Greenland. The ice in this interval is at present considered to orginate from the Eemian interglacial period. The record reveals that the crystal size in ice older than 100,000 yr is highly dependent on climatic conditions at the time of snowfall. This dependence shows up as a strong correlation between ?18O values and crystal size throughout the Eemian, as well as a negative correlation between crystal size and several soluble and insoluble impurities. Although high-resolution impurity records are available from selected parts of the Eemian ice, the study is not conclusive on which impurities are most effective in slowing grain growth. It is shown that the normal grain-growth process, commonly observed in the upper few hundred metres of polar ice sheets, does not yield grain sizes compatible with observed ones at this depth in the ice sheet, even in those parts of the Eemian ice where impurity drag effects are not present. Polygonization of crystals within the ice sheet and the nucleation and rapid growth of new grains at relatively high temperatures in the lowest part probably play an important role in producing the observed grain-size variations. The relevance of possible flow disturbances of the GRIP Eemian climatic record for the results presented is discussed briefly.

Stability of vacancy clusters in FeCr alloys: A study of the Cr concentration dependence

Fe–Cr based alloys are the leading structural material candidates in the design of next generation reactors due to their high resistance to swelling and corrosion. Despite these good properties there are others, such as embrittlement, which require a higher level of understanding in order to improve aspects such as safety or lifetime of the reactors. The addition of Cr improves the behavior of the steels under irradiation, but not in a monotonic way. Therefore, understanding the changes in the Fe–Cr based alloys microstructure induced by irradiation and the role played by the alloying element (Cr) is needed in order to predict the response of these materials under the extreme conditions they are going to support. In this work we perform a study of the effect of Cr concentration in a bcc Fe–Cr matrix on formation and binding energies of vacancy clusters up to 5 units. The dependence of the calculated formation and binding energy is investigated with two empirical interatomic potentials specially developed to study radiation damage in Fe–Cr alloys. Results are very similar for both potentials showing an increase of the defect stability with the cluster size and no real dependence on Cr concentration for the binding energy.

Negative density dependence and environmental heterogeneity effects on tree ferns across succession in a tropical montane forest.

Although tree ferns are an important component of temperate and tropical forests, very little is known about their ecology. Their peculiar biology (e.g., dispersal by spores and two-phase life cycle) makes it difficult to extrapolate current knowledge on the ecology of other tree species to tree ferns. In this paper, we studied the effects of negative density dependence (NDD) and environmental heterogeneity on populations of two abundant tree fern species, Cyathea caracasana and Alsophila engelii, and how these effects change across a successional gradient. Species patterns harbor information on processes such as competition that can be easily revealed using point pattern analysis techniques. However, its detection may be difficult due to the confounded effects of habitat heterogeneity. Here, we mapped three forest plots along a successional gradient in the montane forests of Southern Ecuador. We employed homogeneous and inhomogeneous K and pair correlation functions to quantify the change in the spatial pattern of different size classes and a case-control design to study associations between juvenile and adult tree ferns. Using spatial estimates of the biomass of four functional tree types (short- and long-lived pioneer, shade- and partial shade-tolerant) as covariates, we fitted heterogeneous Poisson models to the point pattern of juvenile and adult tree ferns and explored the existence of habitat dependencies on these patterns. Our study revealed NDD effects for C. caracasana and strong environmental filtering underlying the pattern of A. engelii. We found that adult and juvenile populations of both species responded differently to habitat heterogeneity and in most cases this heterogeneity was associated with the spatial distribution of biomass of the four functional tree types. These findings show the effectiveness of factoring out environmental heterogeneity to avoid confounding factors when studying NDD and demonstrate the usefulness of covariate maps derived from mapped communities.

Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.

Enviromagnetic, major element, and grain-size analyses of surface sediment samples along the continental margin between East Brazil and Patagonia

Continental margin sediments of SE South America originate from various terrestrial sources, each conveying specific magnetic and element signatures. Here, we aim to identify the sources and transport characteristics of shelf and slope sediments deposited between East Brazil and Patagonia (20°-48°S) using enviromagnetic, major element, and grain-size data. A set of five source-indicative parameters (i.e., chi-fd%, ARM/IRM, S0.3T, SIRM/Fe and Fe/K) of 25 surface samples (16-1805 m water depth) was analyzed by fuzzy c-means clustering and non-linear mapping to depict and unmix sediment-province characteristics. This multivariate approach yields three regionally coherent sediment provinces with petrologically and climatically distinct source regions. The southernmost province is entirely restricted to the slope off the Argentinean Pampas and has been identified as relict Andean-sourced sands with coarse unaltered magnetite. The direct transport to the slope was enabled by Rio Colorado and Rio Negro meltwaters during glacial and deglacial phases of low sea level. The adjacent shelf province consists of coastal loessoidal sands (highest hematite and goethite proportions) delivered from the Argentinean Pampas by wave erosion and westerly winds. The northernmost province includes the Plata mudbelt and Rio Grande Cone. It contains tropically weathered clayey silts from the La Plata Drainage Basin with pronounced proportions of fine magnetite, which were distributed up to ~24° S by the Brazilian Coastal Current and admixed to coarser relict sediments of Pampean loessoidal origin. Grain-size analyses of all samples showed that sediment fractionation during transport and deposition had little impact on magnetic and element source characteristics. This study corroborates the high potential of the chosen approach to access sediment origin in regions with contrasting sediment sources, complex transport dynamics, and large grain-size variability.

Stoichiometry dependence of the evolution of the irradiated-induced defect clusters in lanthanum-doped ceria

To study the stoichiometry dependence of irradiation e ects in fluorite-type mixed oxide nuclear fuel (UPuO2), ion implantation in La doped ceria was used. Cerium dioxide single crystals with 0 mol%, 5 mol% and 25 mol% La concentration were irradiated with 1 MeV Kr ions at 800 C. In-situ transmission electron microscope (TEM) was utilized to observe the the damage process and defects created by the ion beam irradiation. Dislocation loops were observed after irradiation and were determined to be on {111} planes, but not on {220} or {200} planes. Ab substantial difference in the average size of dislocation loops for 0 %, 5% and 25% cases was observed at several doses.The growth rate of dislocation loops and the oxygen vacancy di usivity were found to be inversely correlated.

Size effect on the tensile strength of fine-grained copper

We considered the effect of the thickness of copper sheet on its tensile strength. A model in which the strength of surface grains is governed by dislocation image forces, while that of interior grains is determined by dislocation cell structure, was proposed. Using a rule of mixtures, the dependence of strength on the specimen thickness was calculated. A master curve representing the calculated dependence of normalized strength on the ratio of sheet thickness to grain size was confirmed by experiment.