The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.

Digestive processes in ruminal drinkers characterized by means of the acetaminophen absorption test

The aim of the present study was to measure transit patterns of nutrients and the absorptive ability in ruminal drinkers (RDs) compared with healthy unweaned calves. The acetaminophen (paracetamol) absorption test was used to characterize the oroduodenal transit rate. Clinical examination and the analysis of various blood parameters provided supplementary information on digestive processes. Three unweaned bucket-fed calves (one RD and two healthy controls) each from seven Swiss dairy farms were included in the study. Measurements (tests 1 and 2) were performed twice at an interval of 10 days. Between tests, the feeding technique of the RDs and one control calf per farm was changed to feeding with a nipple instead of by bucket (without nipple). Acetaminophen appearance in the blood was delayed and reduced in RDs compared with the controls. Acid-base metabolism and several haematological and metabolic parameters differed markedly between RDs and healthy controls. The characteristics of the oroduodenal transit rate, absorptive abilities and clinical status in RDs were nearly normalised within 10 days of reconditioning.

Ruminal Microbial Protein Synthesis in Sheep Fed Forages of Varying Nutritive Values

Six wethers, fitted with ruminal and duodenal cannulae, were utilized in a 6 x 6 Latin Square metabolism trial to determine efficiency of microbial protein synthesis in the rumen of sheep fed forages with varying nutritional quality. Ground alfalfa hay, oat-berseem clover hay, and baled corn crop residues were fed at an ad libitum or limited intake level. Chromium-mordanted fiber, cobalt- EDTA, and purines were used to determine digesta flow and solid passage rate, dilution rate, and microbial protein production, respectively. Sheep fed alfalfa hay had greater organic matter (OM) intakes, and amounts of OM apparently and truly ruminally digested (g/d; P < .05) than sheep fed either oat-berseem clover or corn crop residues at the ad libitum intake level. Rates of slow solid and liquid passage, and postfeeding ruminal ammonia-nitrogen (N) and volatile fatty acids (VFA) concentrations were lower (P < .05) in sheep fed corn crop residues than those fed alfalfa or oat-berseem clover hay. Total duodenal flows (g/d) and efficiencies of ruminal synthesis (g crude protein/100 g of OM truly digested; P < .05) of microbial protein were less in sheep fed corn crop residues than in sheep fed alfalfa, and oatberseem clover ad libitum. Whereas total duodenal microbial-N flow was related to organic matter intake (OMI; r2 = .97) and OM truly digested in the rumen (OMTDR; r2 = .97), microbial efficiency was related to g of nitroge truly digested in the rumen (NTDR)/100 g of OMTDR (r2 = .82) and slow solid passage rate (r2 = .91).

Influence of temperature of incubation and type of growth medium on pigmentation in Serratia marcescens.

Maximal amounts of prodigiosin were synthesized in either minimal or complete medium after incubation of cultures at 27 C for 7 days. Biosynthesis of prodigiosin began earlier and the range of temperature for formation was greater in complete medium. No prodigiosin was formed in either medium when cultures were incubated at 38 C; however, after a shift to 27 C, pigmentation ensued, provided the period of incubation at 38 C was not longer than 36 hr for minimal medium or 48 hr for complete medium. Washed, nonpigmented cells grown in either medium at 38 C for 72 hr could synthesize prodigiosin when suspended in saline at 27 C when casein hydrolysate was added. These suspensions produced less prodigiosin at a slower rate than did cultures growing in casein hydrolysate at 27 C without prior incubation at 38 C. Optimal concentration of casein hydrolysate for pigment formation by suspensions was 0.4%; optimal temperature was 27 C. Anaerobic incubation, shift back to 38 C, killing cells by heating, or chloramphenicol (25 mug/ml) inhibited pigmentation. Suspensions of washed cells forming pigment reached pH 8.0 to 8.3 rapidly and maintained this pH throughout incubation for 7 days. Measurements of viable count and of protein, plus other data, indicated that cellular multiplication did not occur in suspensions of washed cells during pigment formation. By this procedure utilizing a shift down in temperature, biosynthesis of prodigiosin by washed cells could be separated from multiplication of bacteria.

Microbial formation and degradation of oxygen-containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (OPAHs) in soil during short-term incubation

We tested whether OPAHs were formed during 19-wk incubation of a fertile soil at optimum moisture in the dark. The soil had initial mean (±s.e., n = 3) concentrations of 22 ± 1.7 (Σ28PAHs) and 4.2 ± 0.34 μg g−1 (Σ14OPAHs). After 19 wk, individual PAH and OPAH concentrations had decreased by up to 14 and 37%, respectively. Decreases in % of initial concentrations were positively correlated with their KOW values for PAHs (r = 0.48, p = 0.022) and 9 OPAHs (r = 0.78, p = 0.013) but negatively, albeit not significantly, for 5 OPAHs (r = −0.75, p = 0.145) suggesting net formation of some OPAHs. The latter was supported by significantly increasing 1-indanone/fluorene ratios while the other OPAH to parent-PAH ratios remained constant or tended to increase. We conclude that OPAHs are formed in soils during microbial turnover of PAHs in a short time.