Assessment of functional capacity of the elderly associated with the risk for pressure ulcer

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the elderly with physical limitations; to assess functional capacity as it relates to physical mobility, cognitive status and level of functional independence in activities of daily living, and to relate functional capacity to the risk for pressure ulcers. METHODS: A quantitative cross-sectional approach, conducted in households in the city of João Pessoa (PB) with seniors who presented physical limitation. Fifty-one elderly were investigated in a two-stage cluster sampling design. RESULTS: There was evidence of impairments in functional capacity of the elderly aged 80 years or more, with more severe physical limitations, cognitive impairment and a higher level of dependency for activities. Significant differences were observed between the level of functional independence in performing activities of daily living and the risk of pressure ulcers. CONCLUSION: This study allowed for the identification of the elderly in functional decline and at risk for developing pressure ulcers, supporting the implementation of preventive actions at the household level.

Identification of Urban Leprosy Clusters

Overpopulation of urban areas results from constant migrations that cause disordered urban growth, constituting clusters defined as sets of people or activities concentrated in relatively small physical spaces that often involve precarious conditions. Aim. Using residential grouping, the aim was to identify possible clusters of individuals in São José do Rio Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil, who have or have had leprosy. Methods. A population-based, descriptive, ecological study using the MapInfo and CrimeStat techniques, geoprocessing, and space-time analysis evaluated the location of 425 people treated for leprosy between 1998 and 2010. Clusters were defined as concentrations of at least 8 people with leprosy; a distance of up to 300 meters between residences was adopted. Additionally, the year of starting treatment and the clinical forms of the disease were analyzed. Results. Ninety-eight (23.1%) of 425 geocoded cases were located within one of ten clusters identified in this study, and 129 cases (30.3%) were in the region of a second-order cluster, an area considered of high risk for the disease. Conclusion.This study identified ten clusters of leprosy cases in the city and identified an area of high risk for the appearance of new cases of the disease.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Econometrics of default risk

This thesis is the result of a project aimed at the study of a crucial topic in finance: default risk, whose measurement and modelling have achieved increasing relevance in recent years. We investigate the main issues related to the default phenomenon, under both a methodological and empirical perspective. The topics of default predictability and correlation are treated with a constant attention to the modelling solutions and reviewing critically the literature. From the methodological point of view, our analysis results in the proposal of a new class of models, called Poisson Autoregression with Exogenous Covariates (PARX). The PARX models, including both autoregressive end exogenous components, are able to capture the dynamics of default count time series, characterized by persistence of shocks and slowly decaying autocorrelation. Application of different PARX models to the monthly default counts of US industrial firms in the period 1982-2011 allows an empirical insight of the defaults dynamics and supports the identification of the main default predictors at an aggregate level.

Investigating the role of Copy Number Variants in Specific Language Impairment and identification of new candidate genes

Specific language impairment (SLI) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder defined as an unexpected failure to develop normal language abilities for no obvious reason. Copy number variants (CNVs) are an important source of variation in the susceptibility to neuropsychiatric disorders. Therefore, a CNV study within SLI families was performed to investigate the role of structural variants in SLI. Among the identified CNVs, we focused on CNVs on chromosome 15q11-q13, recurrently observed in neuropsychiatric conditions, and a homozygous exonic microdeletion in ZNF277. Since this microdeletion falls within the AUTS1 locus, a region linked to autism spectrum disorders (ASD), we investigated a potential role of ZNF277 in SLI and ASD. Frequency data and expression analysis of the ZNF277 microdeletion suggested that this variant may contribute to the risk of language impairments in a complex manner, that is independent of the autism risk previously described in this region. Moreover, we identified an affected individual with a dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency, caused by compound heterozygosity of two deleterious variants in the gene DPYD. Since DPYD represents a good candidate gene for both SLI and ASD, we investigated its involvement in the susceptibility to these two disorders, focusing on the splicing variant rs3918290, the most common mutation in the DPD deficiency. We observed a higher frequency of rs3918290 in SLI cases (1.2%), compared to controls (~0.6%), while no difference was observed in a large ASD cohort. DPYD mutation screening in 4 SLI and 7 ASD families carrying the splicing variant identified six known missense changes and a novel variant in the promoter region. These data suggest that the combined effect of the mutations identified in affected individuals may lead to an altered DPD activity and that rare variants in DPYD might contribute to a minority of cases, in conjunction with other genetic or non-genetic factors.

Mass spectrometric identification of Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV) proteins recognized by human T cells

Primary varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection during childhood leads to varicella commonly known as chickenpox. After primary infection has occurred VZV establishes latency in the host. During subsequent lifetime the virus can cause reactivated infection clinically known as herpes zoster or shingles. In immunodeficient patients’ dissemination of the virus can lead to life-threatening disease. Withdrawal of acyclovir drug prophylaxis puts allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) patients at increased risk for herpes zoster as long as VZV-specific cellular immunity is impaired. Although an efficient live attenuated VZV vaccine for zoster prophylaxis exists, it is not approved in immunocompromised patients due to safety reasons. Knowledge of immunogenic VZV proteins would allow designing a noninfectious nonhazardous subunit vaccine suitable for patients with immunodeficiencies. The objective of this study was to identify T cell defined virus proteins of a VZV-infected Vero cell extract that we have recently described as a reliable antigen format for interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot) assays (Distler et al. 2008). We first separated the VZV-infected/-uninfected Vero cell extracts by size filtration and reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC). The collected fractions were screened for VZV reactivity with peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of VZV-seropositive healthy individuals in the sensitive IFN-γ ELISpot assay. Using this strategy, we successfully identified bioactive fractions that contained immunogenic VZV material. VZV immune reactivity was mediated by CD4+ memory T lymphocytes (T cells) of VZV-seropositive healthy individuals as demonstrated in experiments with HLA blockade antibodies and T cell subpopulations already published by Distler et al. We next analyzed the bioactive fractions with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) techniques and identified the sequences of three VZV-derived proteins: glycoprotein E (gE); glycoprotein B (gB), and immediate early protein 62 (IE62). Complementary DNA of these identified proteins was used to generate in vitro transcribed RNA for effective expression in PBMCs by electroporation. We thereby established a reliable and convenient IFN-γ ELISPOT approach to screen PBMCs of healthy donors and HSCT patients for T cell reactivity to single full-length VZV proteins. Application in 10 VZV seropositive healthy donors demonstrated much stronger recognition of glycoproteins gE and gB compared to IE62. In addition, monitoring experiments with ex vivo PBMCs of 3 allo-HSCT patients detected strongly increased CD4+ T cell responses to gE and gB for several weeks to months after zoster onset, while IE62 reactivity remained moderate. Overall our results show for the first time that VZV glycoproteins gE and gB are major targets of the post-transplant anti-zoster CD4+ T cell response. The screening approach introduced herein may help to select VZV proteins recognized by memory CD4+ T cells for inclusion in a subunit vaccine, which can be safely used for zoster prophylaxis in immunocompromised HSCT patients.

Identification of novel genetic alterations in pediatric cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia by next-generation sequencing

Pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a molecularly heterogeneous disease that arises from genetic alterations in pathways that regulate self-renewal and myeloid differentiation. While the majority of patients carry recurrent chromosomal translocations, almost 20% of childhood AML do not show any recognizable cytogenetic alteration and are defined as cytogenetically normal (CN)-AML. CN-AML patients have always showed a great variability in response to therapy and overall outcome, underlining the presence of unknown genetic changes, not detectable by conventional analyses, but relevant for pathogenesis, and outcome of AML. The development of novel genome-wide techniques such as next-generation sequencing, have tremendously improved our ability to interrogate the cancer genome. Based on this background, the aim of this research study was to investigate the mutational landscape of pediatric CN-AML patients negative for all the currently known somatic mutations reported in AML through whole-transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq). RNA-seq performed on diagnostic leukemic blasts from 19 pediatric CN-AML cases revealed a considerable incidence of cryptic chromosomal rearrangements, with the identification of 21 putative fusion genes. Several of the fusion genes that were identified in this study are recurrent and might have a prognostic and/or therapeutic relevance. A paradigm of that is the CBFA2T3-GLIS2 fusion, which has been demonstrated to be a common alteration in pediatric CN-AML, predicting poor outcome. Important findings have been also obtained in the identification of novel therapeutic targets. On one side, the identification of NUP98-JARID1A fusion suggests the use of disulfiram; on the other, here we describe alteration-activating tyrosine kinases, providing functional data supporting the use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors to specifically inhibit leukemia cells. This study provides new insights in the knowledge of genetic alterations underlying pediatric AML, defines novel prognostic markers and putative therapeutic targets, and prospectively ensures a correct risk stratification and risk-adapted therapy also for the “all-neg” AML subgroup.

Automatic risk evaluation in elderly patients based on Autonomic Nervous System assessment

Dysfunction of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) is a typical feature of chronic heart failure and other cardiovascular disease. As a simple non-invasive technology, heart rate variability (HRV) analysis provides reliable information on autonomic modulation of heart rate. The aim of this thesis was to research and develop automatic methods based on ANS assessment for evaluation of risk in cardiac patients. Several features selection and machine learning algorithms have been combined to achieve the goals. Automatic assessment of disease severity in Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients: a completely automatic method, based on long-term HRV was proposed in order to automatically assess the severity of CHF, achieving a sensitivity rate of 93% and a specificity rate of 64% in discriminating severe versus mild patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients at high risk of vascular events: a completely automatic system was proposed in order to identify hypertensive patients at higher risk to develop vascular events in the 12 months following the electrocardiographic recordings, achieving a sensitivity rate of 71% and a specificity rate of 86% in identifying high-risk subjects among hypertensive patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients with history of fall: it was explored whether an automatic identification of fallers among hypertensive patients based on HRV was feasible. The results obtained in this thesis could have implications both in clinical practice and in clinical research. The system has been designed and developed in order to be clinically feasible. Moreover, since 5-minute ECG recording is inexpensive, easy to assess, and non-invasive, future research will focus on the clinical applicability of the system as a screening tool in non-specialized ambulatories, in order to identify high-risk patients to be shortlisted for more complex investigations.

The use of satellite remote sensing for flood risk management

Over the last decades the impact of natural disasters to the global environment is becoming more and more severe. The number of disasters has dramatically increased, as well as the cost to the global economy and the number of people affected. Among the natural disaster, flood catastrophes are considered to be the most costly, devastating, broad extent and frequent, because of the tremendous fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic and social disruption they cause to the humankind. In the last thirty years, the World has suffered from severe flooding and the huge impact of floods has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of economic activity and the loss of property for worth billions of dollars. In this context, satellite remote sensing, along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), has become a key tool in flood risk management analysis. Remote sensing for supporting various aspects of flood risk management was investigated in the present thesis. In particular, the research focused on the use of satellite images for flood mapping and monitoring, damage assessment and risk assessment. The contribution of satellite remote sensing for the delineation of flood prone zones, the identification of damaged areas and the development of hazard maps was explored referring to selected cases of study.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Identification of noninvasive biomarkers for alcohol-induced liver disease using urinary metabolomics and the Ppara-null mouse

Alcohol-induced liver disease (ALD) is a leading cause of nonaccident-related deaths in the United States. Although liver damage caused by ALD is reversible when discovered at the earlier stages, current risk assessment tools are relatively nonspecific. Identification of an early specific signature of ALD would aid in therapeutic intervention and recovery. In this study, the metabolic changes associated with ALD were examined using alcohol-fed male Ppara-null mouse as a model of ALD. Principal components analysis of the mass spectrometry-based urinary metabolic profile showed that alcohol-treated wild-type and Ppara-null mice could be distinguished from control animals without information on history of alcohol consumption. The urinary excretion of ethyl-sulfate, ethyl-beta-d-glucuronide, 4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid, and 4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid sulfate was elevated and that of the 2-hydroxyphenylacetic acid, adipic acid, and pimelic acid was depleted during alcohol treatment in both wild-type and the Ppara-null mice albeit to different extents. However, indole-3-lactic acid was exclusively elevated by alcohol exposure in Ppara-null mice. The elevation of indole-3-lactic acid is mechanistically related to the molecular events associated with development of ALD in alcohol-treated Ppara-null mice. This study demonstrated the ability of a metabolomics approach to identify early, noninvasive biomarkers of ALD pathogenesis in Ppara-null mouse model.

iTRAQ identification of candidate serum biomarkers associated with metastatic progression of human prostate cancer

A major challenge in the management of patients with prostate cancer is identifying those individuals at risk of developing metastatic disease, as in most cases the disease will remain indolent. We analyzed pooled serum samples from 4 groups of patients (n = 5 samples/group), collected prospectively and actively monitored for a minimum of 5 yrs. Patients groups were (i) histological diagnosis of benign prostatic hyperplasia with no evidence of cancer 'BPH', (ii) localised cancer with no evidence of progression, 'non-progressing' (iii) localised cancer with evidence of biochemical progression, 'progressing', and (iv) bone metastasis at presentation 'metastatic'. Pooled samples were immuno-depleted of the 14 most highly abundant proteins and analysed using a 4-plex iTRAQ approach. Overall 122 proteins were identified and relatively quantified. Comparisons of progressing versus non-progressing groups identified the significant differential expression of 25 proteins (p<0.001). Comparisons of metastatic versus progressing groups identified the significant differential expression of 23 proteins. Mapping the differentially expressed proteins onto the prostate cancer progression pathway revealed the dysregulated expression of individual proteins, pairs of proteins and 'panels' of proteins to be associated with particular stages of disease development and progression. The median immunostaining intensity of eukaryotic translation elongation factor 1 alpha 1 (eEF1A1), one of the candidates identified, was significantly higher in osteoblasts in close proximity to metastatic tumour cells compared with osteoblasts in control bone (p = 0.0353, Mann Whitney U). Our proteomic approach has identified leads for potentially useful serum biomarkers associated with the metastatic progression of prostate cancer. The panels identified, including eEF1A1 warrant further investigation and validation.

Changes in PESI scores predict mortality in intermediate-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) accurately identifies 35% of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) as being low risk, some patients deemed high risk by the PESI on admission might be treated safely in the outpatient environment. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 304 consecutive patients with acute PE, classified at the time of hospital admission into PESI class III. The PESI was recalculated 48 h after admission (PESI(48)) and each patient reclassified into the corresponding risk category. The primary outcome of the study was all-cause mortality between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. 26 (8.5%) patients (95% CI 5.4-11.7%) died between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. Investigators reclassified 83 (27.3%) patients (95% CI 22.3-32.3%) as low risk (classes I and II) at 48 h. 30-day mortality in these patients was 1.2% (95% CI 0-3.5%) as opposed to 11.3% (95% CI 7.1-15.5%) in those who remained high risk. The net improvement in reclassification was estimated at 54% (p<0.001). In a cohort of intermediate-risk patients with acute PE, calculation of the PESI(48) allows identification of those patients at very low risk of dying during the first month of follow-up.

Association of cardiovascular risk factors with pattern of lower limb atherosclerosis in 2659 patients undergoing angioplasty

OBJECTIVES: Aim of this study is to correlate distribution pattern of lower limb atherosclerosis with cardiovascular risk factor profile of patients with peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analysis is based on a consecutive series of 2659 patients (1583 men, 1076 women, 70+/-11 years) with chronic PAD of atherosclerotic origin undergoing primary endovascular treatment of lower extremity arteries. Pattern of atherosclerosis was grouped into iliac (n=1166), femoropopliteal (n=2151) and infrageniculate (n=888) disease defined according to target lesions treated. A multivariable multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to assess relation with age, gender and classical cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, cigarette smoking) using femoropopliteal disease as reference. RESULTS: Iliac disease was associated with younger age (RRR 0.95 per year of age, 95%-CI 0.94-0.96, p<0.001), male gender (RRR 1.32, 95%-CI 1.09-1.59, p=0.004) and cigarette smoking (RRR 2.02, 95%-CI 1.68-2.42, p<0.001). Infrageniculate disease was associated with higher age (RRR 1.02, 95%-CI 1.01-1.02, p<0.001), male gender (RRR 1.23, 95%-CI 1.06-1.41, p=0.005) and diabetes mellitus (RRR 1.68, 95%-CI 1.47-1.92, p<0.001). Hypercholesterolemia was less prevalent in patients with lesions below the knee (RRR 0.82, 95%-CI 0.71-0.94, p=0.006), whereas no distinct pattern was apparent related to arterial hypertension. CONCLUSION: Clinical phenotype of peripheral atherosclerosis varies with prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors suggesting differences in mechanisms involved in iliac as compared with infrageniculate lesions. Identification of molecular mechanism might have influence on future therapeutic strategies in PAD patients.

Cardiovascular risk factors and the metabolic syndrome in pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the most common cause of liver disease in children, is associated with obesity and insulin resistance. However, the relationship between NAFLD and cardiovascular risk factors in children is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to determine the association between NAFLD and the presence of metabolic syndrome in overweight and obese children. METHODS AND RESULTS: This case-control study of 150 overweight children with biopsy-proven NAFLD and 150 overweight children without NAFLD compared rates of metabolic syndrome using Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Cases and controls were well matched in age, sex, and severity of obesity. Children with NAFLD had significantly higher fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure than overweight and obese children without NAFLD. Subjects with NAFLD also had significantly lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol than controls. After adjustment for age, sex, race, ethnicity, body mass index, and hyperinsulinemia, children with metabolic syndrome had 5.0 (95% confidence interval, 2.6 to 9.7) times the odds of having NAFLD as overweight and obese children without metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD in overweight and obese children is strongly associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. The identification of NAFLD in a child should prompt global counseling to address nutrition, physical activity, and avoidance of smoking to prevent the development of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.