Socioeconomic Status and Health Behavior in Nepal

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Gait analysis of the hind limb in Labrador Retrievers with and without cranial cruciate ligament disease

Cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) deficiency is the leading cause of lameness affecting the stifle joints of large breed dogs, especially Labrador Retrievers. Although CCL disease has been studied extensively, its exact pathogenesis and the primary cause leading to CCL rupture remain controversial. However, weakening secondary to repetitive microtrauma is currently believed to cause the majority of CCL instabilities diagnosed in dogs. Techniques of gait analysis have become the most productive tools to investigate normal and pathological gait in human and veterinary subjects. The inverse dynamics analysis approach models the limb as a series of connected linkages and integrates morphometric data to yield information about the net joint moment, patterns of muscle power and joint reaction forces. The results of these studies have greatly advanced our understanding of the pathogenesis of joint diseases in humans. A muscular imbalance between the hamstring and quadriceps muscles has been suggested as a cause for anterior cruciate ligament rupture in female athletes. Based on these findings, neuromuscular training programs leading to a relative risk reduction of up to 80% has been designed. In spite of the cost and morbidity associated with CCL disease and its management, very few studies have focused on the inverse dynamics gait analysis of this condition in dogs. The general goals of this research were (1) to further define gait mechanism in Labrador Retrievers with and without CCL-deficiency, (2) to identify individual dogs that are susceptible to CCL disease, and (3) to characterize their gait. The mass, location of the center of mass (COM), and mass moment of inertia of hind limb segments were calculated using a noninvasive method based on computerized tomography of normal and CCL-deficient Labrador Retrievers. Regression models were developed to determine predictive equations to estimate body segment parameters on the basis of simple morphometric measurements, providing a basis for nonterminal studies of inverse dynamics of the hind limbs in Labrador Retrievers. Kinematic, ground reaction forces (GRF) and morphometric data were combined in an inverse dynamics approach to compute hock, stifle and hip net moments, powers and joint reaction forces (JRF) while trotting in normal, CCL-deficient or sound contralateral limbs. Reductions in joint moment, power, and loads observed in CCL-deficient limbs were interpreted as modifications adopted to reduce or avoid painful mobilization of the injured stifle joint. Lameness resulting from CCL disease affected predominantly reaction forces during the braking phase and the extension during push-off. Kinetics also identified a greater joint moment and power of the contralateral limbs compared with normal, particularly of the stifle extensor muscles group, which may correlate with the lameness observed, but also with the predisposition of contralateral limbs to CCL deficiency in dogs. For the first time, surface EMG patterns of major hind limb muscles during trotting gait of healthy Labrador Retrievers were characterized and compared with kinetic and kinematic data of the stifle joint. The use of surface EMG highlighted the co-contraction patterns of the muscles around the stifle joint, which were documented during transition periods between flexion and extension of the joint, but also during the flexion observed in the weight bearing phase. Identification of possible differences in EMG activation characteristics between healthy patients and dogs with or predisposed to orthopedic and neurological disease may help understanding the neuromuscular abnormality and gait mechanics of such disorders in the future. Conformation parameters, obtained from femoral and tibial radiographs, hind limb CT images, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, of hind limbs predisposed to CCL deficiency were compared with the conformation parameters from hind limbs at low risk. A combination of tibial plateau angle and femoral anteversion angle measured on radiographs was determined optimal for discriminating predisposed and non-predisposed limbs for CCL disease in Labrador Retrievers using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis method. In the future, the tibial plateau angle (TPA) and femoral anteversion angle (FAA) may be used to screen dogs suspected of being susceptible to CCL disease. Last, kinematics and kinetics across the hock, stifle and hip joints in Labrador Retrievers presumed to be at low risk based on their radiographic TPA and FAA were compared to gait data from dogs presumed to be predisposed to CCL disease for overground and treadmill trotting gait. For overground trials, extensor moment at the hock and energy generated around the hock and stifle joints were increased in predisposed limbs compared to non predisposed limbs. For treadmill trials, dogs qualified as predisposed to CCL disease held their stifle at a greater degree of flexion, extended their hock less, and generated more energy around the stifle joints while trotting on a treadmill compared with dogs at low risk. This characterization of the gait mechanics of Labrador Retrievers at low risk or predisposed to CCL disease may help developing and monitoring preventive exercise programs to decrease gastrocnemius dominance and strengthened the hamstring muscle group.

Diagnóstico ecográfico de tumores anexiais: modelos do grupo international ovary tumor analysis (IOTA) versus classificação gynecologic imaging report and data system (GI-RADS)

A ecografia é o exame de primeira linha na identificação e caraterização de tumores anexiais. Foram descritos diversos métodos de diagnóstico diferencial incluindo a avaliação subjetiva do observador, índices descritivos simples e índices matematicamente desenvolvidos como modelos de regressão logística, continuando a avaliação subjectiva por examinador diferenciado a ser o melhor método de discriminação entre tumores malignos e benignos. No entanto, devido à subjectividade inerente a esta avaliação tornouse necessário estabelecer uma nomenclatura padronizada e uma classificação que facilitasse a comunicação de resultados e respectivas recomendações de vigilância. O objetivo deste artigo é resumir e comparar diferentes métodos de avaliação e classificação de tumores anexiais, nomeadamente os modelos do grupo International Ovary Tumor Analysis (IOTA) e a classificação Gynecologic Imaging Report and Data System (GI-RADS), em termos de desempenho diagnóstico e utilidade na prática clínica.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Early Warning System Potential for Single Sourcing Risk Mitigation

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Reasoning on the Risks of Dynamic Manufacturing Networks through Cognitive Mapping

Part 17: Risk Analysis

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

Análise de risco para computação em nuvem

Têm-se notado nos últimos anos um crescimento na adoção de tecnologias de computação em nuvem, com uma adesão inicial por parte de particulares e pequenas empresas, e mais recentemente por grandes organizações. Esta tecnologia tem servido de base ao aparecimento de um conjunto de novas tendências, como a Internet das Coisas ligando os nossos equipamentos pessoais e wearables às redes sociais, processos de big data que permitem tipificar comportamentos de clientes ou ainda facilitar a vida ao cidadão com serviços de atendimento integrados. No entanto, tal como em todas as novas tendências disruptivas, que trazem consigo um conjunto de oportunidades, trazem também um conjunto de novos riscos que são necessários de serem equacionados. Embora este caminho praticamente se torne inevitável para uma grande parte de empresas e entidades governamentais, a sua adoção como funcionamento deve ser alvo de uma permanente avaliação e monitorização entre as vantagens e riscos associados. Para tal, é fundamental que as organizações se dotem de uma eficiente gestão do risco, de modo que possam tipificar os riscos (identificar, analisar e quantificar) e orientar-se de uma forma segura e metódica para este novo paradigma. Caso não o façam, os riscos ficam evidenciados, desde uma possível perda de competitividade face às suas congéneres, falta de confiança dos clientes, dos parceiros de negócio e podendo culminar numa total inatividade do negócio. Com esta tese de mestrado desenvolve-se uma análise genérica de risco tendo como base a Norma ISO 31000:2009 e a elaboração de uma proposta de registo de risco, que possa servir de auxiliar em processos de tomada de decisão na contratação e manutenção de serviços de Computação em Nuvem por responsáveis de organizações privadas ou estatais.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Development and Verification of Control and Protection Strategies in Hybrid AC/DC Power Systems for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.

Relación entre las condiciones de higiene y seguridad y la exposición ambiental a solventes orgánicos en pintores de automóviles de la localidad de barrios unidos, Bogotá 2015

Introducción. Los trabajadores de los talleres de reparación de automóviles conviven diariamente con la exposición a los solventes orgánicos, exposición que se convierte en un riesgo para su salud que generalmente en el corto plazo se presenta como déficits de concentración, memoria y tiempo de reacción y en el largo plazo produciendo graves repercusiones clínicas como efectos mutagénicos y carcinogénicos. Objetivo. Caracterizar las condiciones higiénicas y de seguridad de trabajadores ocupacionalmente expuestos a solventes orgánicos y determinar los niveles ambientales de benceno, tolueno y xileno (BTX) en talleres de lámina y pintura automotriz de la ciudad de Bogotá. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio de corte transversal en 60 trabajadores que laboran expuestos a solventes orgánicos en talleres de reparación automotriz en Bogotá. Se realizó una encuesta con variables sociodemográficas, laborales y se determinaron los niveles en aire de benceno, tolueno y xileno. Para los muestreos ambientales, las bombas se colocaron en una posición fija representativa del ambiente general, con el objeto de conocer la distribución de los solventes en el área de trabajo. Se realizó un análisis descriptivo por conteos de frecuencia, medidas de tendencia central y dispersión. Se utilizó prueba de bondad de ajuste para distribución normal (Kolmogorov-Smirnov o Shapiro Wilk), prueba t Student para comparación de medias, o en su defecto prueba U de Mann Whitney para comparación de medianas. Para identificar la relación entre las características sociodemográficas y ocupacionales con la exposición a BTX, se utilizaron pruebas de asociación Chi cuadrado o análisis de correlación según la naturaleza de las variables. El nivel de significancia para cada prueba fue 0.05. Resultados. La edad promedio de los trabajadores fue de 43 años y un tiempo total de exposición a solventes de 20 años. Respecto al uso de protección corporal, 45 (75%) de los trabajadores manifestaron que usaban uniforme, mientras que 14 (23,3%) usaban ropa de calle durante la jornada laboral. El 46,7% manifestaron usar protección respiratoria. La concentración de benceno en aire fue entre 0,1 y 0,45 mg/l (mediana de 0,31 mg/l; DE 0,13 mg/l); la de tolueno estuvo entre 8,25 y 27,22 mg/l (mediana de 14,5 mg/l; DE 6.99 mg/l) y la de xileno entre 19,34 y 150,15 mg/l (mediana de 70,12 mg/l; DE 40,82 mg/l). Conclusión. Los pintores de automóviles están expuestos a niveles elevados de solventes en los lugares de trabajo y no cuentan con condiciones de higiene y seguridad industrial adecuados. Un gran número de pintores son informales lo que les impide el acceso a los beneficios del Sistema de Seguridad Social Integral.

Industrial Demilitarized Zone and Zero Trust cybersecurity models for Industrial Control Systems

Today more than ever, with the recent war in Ukraine and the increasing number of attacks that affect systems of nations and companies every day, the world realizes that cybersecurity can no longer be considered just as a “cost”. It must become a pillar for our infrastructures that involve the security of our nations and the safety of people. Critical infrastructure, like energy, financial services, and healthcare, have become targets of many cyberattacks from several criminal groups, with an increasing number of resources and competencies, putting at risk the security and safety of companies and entire nations. This thesis aims to investigate the state-of-the-art regarding the best practice for securing Industrial control systems. We study the differences between two security frameworks. The first is Industrial Demilitarized Zone (I-DMZ), a perimeter-based security solution. The second one is the Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) which removes the concept of perimeter to offer an entirely new approach to cybersecurity based on the slogan ‘Never Trust, always verify’. Starting from this premise, the Zero Trust model embeds strict Authentication, Authorization, and monitoring controls for any access to any resource. We have defined two architectures according to the State-of-the-art and the cybersecurity experts’ guidelines to compare I-DMZ, and Zero Trust approaches to ICS security. The goal is to demonstrate how a Zero Trust approach dramatically reduces the possibility of an attacker penetrating the network or moving laterally to compromise the entire infrastructure. A third architecture has been defined based on Cloud and fog/edge computing technology. It shows how Cloud solutions can improve the security and reliability of infrastructure and production processes that can benefit from a range of new functionalities, that the Cloud could offer as-a-Service.We have implemented and tested our Zero Trust solution and its ability to block intrusion or attempted attacks.

Hegemonia e contra-hegemonia na construção de políticas de esporte e lazer : a experiência do Consórcio Brasília = Hegemony and counter-hegemony in the process of sport and leisure policy-making : the experience of the Consortium Brasilia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física