Contact time periods in immunological synapse

This paper resolves the long standing debate as to the proper time scale τ of the onset of the immunological synapse bond, the noncovalent chemical bond defining the immune pathways involving T cells and antigen presenting cells. Results from our model calculations show τ to be of the order of seconds instead of minutes. Close to the linearly stable regime, we show that in between the two critical spatial thresholds defined by the integrin:ligand pair (Δ2∼ 40-45 nm) and the T-cell receptor TCR:peptide-major-histocompatibility-complex pMHC bond (Δ1∼ 14-15 nm), τ grows monotonically with increasing coreceptor bond length separation δ (= Δ2-Δ1∼ 26-30 nm) while τ decays with Δ1 for fixed Δ2. The nonuniversal δ-dependent power-law structure of the probability density function further explains why only the TCR:pMHC bond is a likely candidate to form a stable synapse.

Real-time high-resolution heterodyne-based measurements of spectral dynamics in fibre lasers

Conventional tools for measurement of laser spectra (e.g. optical spectrum analysers) capture data averaged over a considerable time period. However, the generation spectrum of many laser types may involve spectral dynamics whose relatively fast time scale is determined by their cavity round trip period, calling for instrumentation featuring both high temporal and spectral resolution. Such real-time spectral characterisation becomes particularly challenging if the laser pulses are long, or they have continuous or quasi-continuous wave radiation components. Here we combine optical heterodyning with a technique of spatiooral intensity measurements that allows the characterisation of such complex sources. Fast, round-trip-resolved spectral dynamics of cavity-based systems in real-time are obtained, with temporal resolution of one cavity round trip and frequency resolution defined by its inverse (85 ns and 24 MHz respectively are demonstrated). We also show how under certain conditions for quasi-continuous wave sources, the spectral resolution could be further increased by a factor of 100 by direct extraction of phase information from the heterodyned dynamics or by using double time scales within the spectrogram approach.

Long-Term Effects of Adding Nutrients to an Oligotrophic Coastal Environment

Management of ecological disturbances requires an understanding of the time scale and dynamics of community responses to disturbance events. To characterize long-term seagrass bed responses to nutrient enrichment, we established six study sites in Florida Bay, USA. In 24 plots (0.25 m2) at each site, we regularly added nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in a factorial design for 7 years. Five of the six sites exhibited strong P limitation. Over the first 2 years, P enrichment increased Thalassia testudinum cover in the three most P-limited sites. After 3 years, Halodule wrightii began to colonize many of the P-addition plots, but the degree of colonization was variable among sites, possibly due to differences in the supply of viable propagules. Thalassia increased its allocation to aboveground tissue in response to P enrichment; Halodule increased in total biomass but did not appear to change its aboveground: belowground tissue allocation. Nutrient enrichment did not cause macroalgal or epiphytic overgrowth of the seagrass. Nitrogen retention in the study plots was variable but relatively low, whereas phosphorus retention was very high, often exceeding 100% of the P added as fertilizer over the course of our experiments. Phosphorus retentions exceeding 100% may have been facilitated by increases in Thalassia aboveground biomass, which promoted the settlement of suspended particulate matter containing phosphorus. Our study demonstrated that lowintensity press disturbance events such as phosphorus enrichment can initiate a slow, ramped successional process that may alter community structure over many years.

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.

Carbonates and selected geochemistry composition for sediments from Lake Iznik for the past 31 ka cal BP

This study examines the forcing mechanisms driving long-term carbonate accumulation and preservation in lacustrine sediments in Lake Iznik (northwestern Turkey) since the last glacial. Currently, carbonates precipitate during summer from the alkaline water column, and the sediments preserve aragonite and calcite. Based on X-ray diffraction data, carbonate accumulation has changed significantly and striking reversals in the abundance of the two carbonate polymorphs have occurred on a decadal time scale, during the last 31 ka cal BP. Different lines of evidence, such as grain size, organic matter and redox sensitive elements, indicate that reversals in carbonate polymorph abundance arise due to physical changes in the lacustrine setting, for example, water column depth and lake mixing. The aragonite concentrations are remarkably sensitive to climate, and exhibit millennial-scale oscillations. Extending observations from modern lakes, the Iznik record shows that the aerobic decomposition of organic matter and sulphate reduction are also substantial factors in carbonate preservation over long time periods. Lower lake levels favour aragonite precipitation from supersaturated waters. Prolonged periods of stratification and consequently enhanced sulphate reduction favour aragonite preservation. In contrast, prolonged or repeated exposure of the sediment-water interface to oxygen results in in situ aerobic organic matter decomposition, eventually leading to carbonate dissolution. Notably, the Iznik sediment profile raises the hypothesis that different states of lacustrine mixing lead to selective preservation of different carbonate polymorphs. Thus, a change in the entire lake water chemistry is not strictly necessary to favour the preservation of one polymorph over another.

PIES time series in the North Atlantic at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (2006-2010)

In the western North Atlantic, warm and saline water is brought by the North Atlantic Current (NAC) from the subtropics into the subpolar gyre. Four inverted echo sounders with high precision pressure sensors (PIES) were moored between 47°40' N and 52°30' N to study the main pathways of the NAC from the western into the eastern basin. The array configuration that forms three segments (northern, central, and southern) allows partitioning of the NAC and some assessment of NAC flow paths through the different Mid-Atlantic Ridge fracture zones. We exploit the correlation between the NAC transport measured between 2006 and 2010 and the geostrophic velocity from altimeter data to extend the time series of NAC transports to the period from 1992 to 2013. The mean NAC transport over the entire 21 years is 27 ± 5 Sv, consisting of 60% warm water of subtropical origin and 40% subpolar water. We did not find a significant trend in the total transport time series, but individual segments had opposing trends, leading to a more focused NAC in the central subsection and decreasing transports in the southern and northern segments. The spectral analysis exhibits several significant peaks. The two most prominent are around 120 days, identified as the time scale of meanders and eddies, and at 4-9 years, most likely related to the NAO. Transport composites for the years of highest and lowest NAO indices showed a significantly higher transport (+2.9 Sv) during strong NAO years, mainly in the southern segment.

Novel surface-tethered estrogen polymeric platforms in cardiovascular regenerative medicine

L’estradiol (E2) est une hormone femelle qui joue un rôle essentiel, à la fois dans la régulation et dans la détermination de certaines conditions physiologiques in vivo, telle que la différenciation et la prolifération cellulaire. Lorsque l’E2 est donné en supplément, par exemple dans le cas de thérapie hormonale, deux effets sont observés, un effet génomique et un effet non-génomique, de par son interaction avec les récepteurs à œstrogène du noyau ou de la membrane cellulaire, respectivement. L’effet non-génomique est plus difficile à étudier biologiquement parce que l’effet se produit sur une échelle de temps extrêmement courte et à cause de la nature hydrophobe de l’E2 qui réduit sa biodisponibilité et donc son accessibilité aux cellules cibles. C’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de développer des systèmes d’administration de l’E2 qui permettent de n’étudier que l’effet non-génomique de l’œstrogène. Une des stratégies employée consiste à greffer l’E2 à des macromolécules hydrophiles, comme de l’albumine de sérum bovin (BSA) ou des dendrimères de type poly(amido)amine, permettant de maintenir l’interaction de l’E2 avec les récepteurs d’œstrogène de la membrane cellulaire et d’éviter la pénétration de l’E2 dans le noyau des cellules. Toutefois, ces systèmes macromolécules-E2 sont critiquables car ils sont peu stables et l’E2 peut se retrouver sous forme libre, ce qui affecte sa localisation cellulaire. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc de développer de nouvelles plateformes fonctionnalisées avec de l’E2 en utilisant les approches de synthèses ascendantes et descendantes. Le but de ces plateformes est de permettre d’étudier le mécanisme de l’effet non-génomique de l’E2, ainsi que d’explorer des applications potentielles dans le domaine biomédical. L’approche ascendante est basée sur un ligand d’E2 activé, l’acide 17,α-éthinylestradiol-benzoïque, attaché de façon covalente à un polymère de chitosan avec des substitutions de phosphorylcholine (CH-PC-E2). L’estradiol est sous forme de pro-drogue attachée au polymère qui s’auto-assembler pour former un film. L’effet biologique de la composition chimique du film de chitosan-phosphorylcholine a été étudié sur des cellules endothéliales. Les films de compositions chimiques différentes ont préalablement été caractérisés de façon physicochimique. La topographie de la surface, la charge de surface, ainsi que la rhéologie des différents films contenant 15, 25, ou 40% molaires de phosphorylcholine, ont été étudiés par microscopie à force atomique (AFM), potentiel zêta, résonance plasmonique de surface et par microbalance à cristal de quartz avec dissipation (QCM-D). Les résultats de QCM-D ont montré que plus la part molaire en phosphorylcholine est grande moins il y a de fibrinogène qui s’adsorbe sur le film de CH-PC. Des cellules humaines de veine ombilicale (HUVECs) cultivées sur des films de CH-PC25 et de CH-PC40 forment des amas cellulaire appelés sphéroïdes au bout de 4 jours, alors que ce n’est pas le cas lorsque ces cellules sont cultivées sur des films de CH-PC15. L’attachement de l’estradiol au polymère a été caractérisé par plusieurs techniques, telles que la résonance magnétique nucléaire de proton (1H NMR), la spectroscopie infrarouge avec transformée de Fourier à réfraction totale atténuée (FTIR-ATR) et la spectroscopie UV-visible. La nature hydrogel des films (sa capacité à retenir l’eau) ainsi que l’interaction des films avec des récepteurs à E2, ont été étudiés par la QCM-D. Des études d’imagerie cellulaires utilisant du diacétate de diaminofluoresceine-FM ont révélé que les films hydrogels de CH-PC-E2 stimulent la production d’oxyde nitrique par les cellules endothéliales, qui joue un rôle protecteur pour le système cardiovasculaire. L’ensemble de ces études met en valeur les rôles différents et les applications potentielles qu’ont les films de type CH-PC-E2 et CH-PC dans le cadre de la médecine cardiovasculaire régénérative. L’approche descendante est basée sur l’attachement de façon covalente d’E2 sur des ilots d’or de 2 μm disposés en rangées et espacés par 12 μm sur un substrat en verre. Les ilots ont été préparés par photolithographie. La surface du verre a quant à elle été modifiée à l’aide d’un tripeptide cyclique, le cRGD, favorisant l’adhésion cellulaire. L’attachement d’E2 sur les surfaces d’or a été suivi et confirmé par les techniques de SPR et de QCM-D. Des études d’ELISA ont montré une augmentation significative du niveau de phosphorylation de la kinase ERK (marqueur important de l’effet non-génomique) après 1 heure d’exposition des cellules endothéliales aux motifs alternant l’E2 et le cRGD. Par contre lorsque des cellules cancéreuses sont déposées sur les surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2, ces cellules ne croissent pas, ce qui suggère que l’E2 n’exerce pas d’effet génomique. Les résultats de l’approche descendante montrent le potentiel des surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2 pour l’étude des effets non-génomiques de l’E2 dans un modèle in vitro.

Dynamic classifiers for neonatal brain monitoring

Brain injury due to lack of oxygen or impaired blood flow around the time of birth, may cause long term neurological dysfunction or death in severe cases. The treatments need to be initiated as soon as possible and tailored according to the nature of the injury to achieve best outcomes. The Electroencephalogram (EEG) currently provides the best insight into neurological activities. However, its interpretation presents formidable challenge for the neurophsiologists. Moreover, such expertise is not widely available particularly around the clock in a typical busy Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Therefore, an automated computerized system for detecting and grading the severity of brain injuries could be of great help for medical staff to diagnose and then initiate on-time treatments. In this study, automated systems for detection of neonatal seizures and grading the severity of Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE) using EEG and Heart Rate (HR) signals are presented. It is well known that there is a lot of contextual and temporal information present in the EEG and HR signals if examined at longer time scale. The systems developed in the past, exploited this information either at very early stage of the system without any intelligent block or at very later stage where presence of such information is much reduced. This work has particularly focused on the development of a system that can incorporate the contextual information at the middle (classifier) level. This is achieved by using dynamic classifiers that are able to process the sequences of feature vectors rather than only one feature vector at a time.

Novel surface-tethered estrogen polymeric platforms in cardiovascular regenerative medicine

L’estradiol (E2) est une hormone femelle qui joue un rôle essentiel, à la fois dans la régulation et dans la détermination de certaines conditions physiologiques in vivo, telle que la différenciation et la prolifération cellulaire. Lorsque l’E2 est donné en supplément, par exemple dans le cas de thérapie hormonale, deux effets sont observés, un effet génomique et un effet non-génomique, de par son interaction avec les récepteurs à œstrogène du noyau ou de la membrane cellulaire, respectivement. L’effet non-génomique est plus difficile à étudier biologiquement parce que l’effet se produit sur une échelle de temps extrêmement courte et à cause de la nature hydrophobe de l’E2 qui réduit sa biodisponibilité et donc son accessibilité aux cellules cibles. C’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de développer des systèmes d’administration de l’E2 qui permettent de n’étudier que l’effet non-génomique de l’œstrogène. Une des stratégies employée consiste à greffer l’E2 à des macromolécules hydrophiles, comme de l’albumine de sérum bovin (BSA) ou des dendrimères de type poly(amido)amine, permettant de maintenir l’interaction de l’E2 avec les récepteurs d’œstrogène de la membrane cellulaire et d’éviter la pénétration de l’E2 dans le noyau des cellules. Toutefois, ces systèmes macromolécules-E2 sont critiquables car ils sont peu stables et l’E2 peut se retrouver sous forme libre, ce qui affecte sa localisation cellulaire. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc de développer de nouvelles plateformes fonctionnalisées avec de l’E2 en utilisant les approches de synthèses ascendantes et descendantes. Le but de ces plateformes est de permettre d’étudier le mécanisme de l’effet non-génomique de l’E2, ainsi que d’explorer des applications potentielles dans le domaine biomédical. L’approche ascendante est basée sur un ligand d’E2 activé, l’acide 17,α-éthinylestradiol-benzoïque, attaché de façon covalente à un polymère de chitosan avec des substitutions de phosphorylcholine (CH-PC-E2). L’estradiol est sous forme de pro-drogue attachée au polymère qui s’auto-assembler pour former un film. L’effet biologique de la composition chimique du film de chitosan-phosphorylcholine a été étudié sur des cellules endothéliales. Les films de compositions chimiques différentes ont préalablement été caractérisés de façon physicochimique. La topographie de la surface, la charge de surface, ainsi que la rhéologie des différents films contenant 15, 25, ou 40% molaires de phosphorylcholine, ont été étudiés par microscopie à force atomique (AFM), potentiel zêta, résonance plasmonique de surface et par microbalance à cristal de quartz avec dissipation (QCM-D). Les résultats de QCM-D ont montré que plus la part molaire en phosphorylcholine est grande moins il y a de fibrinogène qui s’adsorbe sur le film de CH-PC. Des cellules humaines de veine ombilicale (HUVECs) cultivées sur des films de CH-PC25 et de CH-PC40 forment des amas cellulaire appelés sphéroïdes au bout de 4 jours, alors que ce n’est pas le cas lorsque ces cellules sont cultivées sur des films de CH-PC15. L’attachement de l’estradiol au polymère a été caractérisé par plusieurs techniques, telles que la résonance magnétique nucléaire de proton (1H NMR), la spectroscopie infrarouge avec transformée de Fourier à réfraction totale atténuée (FTIR-ATR) et la spectroscopie UV-visible. La nature hydrogel des films (sa capacité à retenir l’eau) ainsi que l’interaction des films avec des récepteurs à E2, ont été étudiés par la QCM-D. Des études d’imagerie cellulaires utilisant du diacétate de diaminofluoresceine-FM ont révélé que les films hydrogels de CH-PC-E2 stimulent la production d’oxyde nitrique par les cellules endothéliales, qui joue un rôle protecteur pour le système cardiovasculaire. L’ensemble de ces études met en valeur les rôles différents et les applications potentielles qu’ont les films de type CH-PC-E2 et CH-PC dans le cadre de la médecine cardiovasculaire régénérative. L’approche descendante est basée sur l’attachement de façon covalente d’E2 sur des ilots d’or de 2 μm disposés en rangées et espacés par 12 μm sur un substrat en verre. Les ilots ont été préparés par photolithographie. La surface du verre a quant à elle été modifiée à l’aide d’un tripeptide cyclique, le cRGD, favorisant l’adhésion cellulaire. L’attachement d’E2 sur les surfaces d’or a été suivi et confirmé par les techniques de SPR et de QCM-D. Des études d’ELISA ont montré une augmentation significative du niveau de phosphorylation de la kinase ERK (marqueur important de l’effet non-génomique) après 1 heure d’exposition des cellules endothéliales aux motifs alternant l’E2 et le cRGD. Par contre lorsque des cellules cancéreuses sont déposées sur les surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2, ces cellules ne croissent pas, ce qui suggère que l’E2 n’exerce pas d’effet génomique. Les résultats de l’approche descendante montrent le potentiel des surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2 pour l’étude des effets non-génomiques de l’E2 dans un modèle in vitro.

Middle Eocene Fe and Ca counts, Ca/Fe ratios, revised splices and astronomical age models form different Sites of IODP Exp342

Accurate age models are a tool of utmost important in paleoclimatology. Constraining the rate and pace of past climate change are at the core of paleoclimate research, as such knowledge is crucial to our understanding of the climate system. Indeed, it allows for the disentanglement of the various drivers of climate change. The scarcity of highly resolved sedimentary records from the middle Eocene (Bartonian - Lutetian Stages; 47.8 - 37.8 Ma) has led to the existence of the "Eocene astronomical time scale gap" and hindered the establishment of a comprehensive astronomical time scale (ATS) for the entire Cenozoic. Sediments from the Newfoundland Ridge drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 342 span the Eocene gap at an unprecedented stratigraphic resolution with carbonate bearing sediments. Moreover, these sediments exhibit cyclic lithological changes that allow for an astronomical calibration of geologic time. In this study, we use the dominant obliquity imprint in XRF-derived calcium-iron ratio series (Ca/Fe) from three sites drilled during IODP Expedition 342 (U1408, U1409, U1410) to construct a floating astrochronology. We then anchor this chronology to numerical geological time by tuning 173-kyr cycles in the amplitude modulation pattern of obliquity to an astronomical solution. This study is one of the first to use the 173-kyr obliquity amplitude cycle for astrochronologic purposes, as previous studies primarily use the 405-kyr long eccentricity cycle as a tuning target to calibrate the Paleogene geologic time scale. We demonstrate that the 173-kyr cycles in obliquity's amplitude are stable between 40 and 50 Ma, which means that one can use the 173-kyr cycle for astrochronologic calibration in the Eocene. Our tuning provides new age estimates for magnetochron reversals C18n.1n - C21r and a stratigraphic framework for key sites from Expedition 342 for the Eocene. Some disagreements emerge when we compare our tuning for the interval between C19r and C20r with previous tuning attempts from the South Atlantic. We therefore present a revision of the original astronomical interpretations for the latter records, so that the various astrochronologic age models for the middle Eocene in the North- and South-Atlantic are consistent.

Stable isotope record, calcium carbonate conentrations, and sea surface temperture reconstructions of sediment cores from the North Atlantic

We analyze five high-resolution time series spanning the last 1.65 m.y.: benthic foraminiferal delta18O and delta13O, percent CaCO3, and estimated sea surface temperature (SST) at North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project site 607 and percent CaCO3 at site 609. Each record is a multicore composite verified for continuity by splicing among multiple holes. These climatic indices portray changes in northern hemisphere ice sheet size and in North Atlantic surface and deep circulation. By tuning obliquity and precession components in the delta18O record to orbital variations, we have devised a time scale (TP607) for the entire Pleistocene that agrees in age with all K/Ar-dated magnetic reversals to within 1.5%. The Brunhes time scale is taken from Imbrie et al. [1984], except for differences near the stage 17/16 transition (0.70 to 0.64 Ma). All indicators show a similar evolution from the Matuyama to the Brunhes chrons: orbital eccentricity and precession responses increased in amplitude; those at orbital obliquity decreased. The change in dominance from obliquity to eccentricity occurred over several hundred thousand years, with fastest changes around 0.7 to 0.6 Ma. The coherent, in-phase responses of delta18O, delta13O, CaCO3 and SST at these rhythms indicate that northern hemisphere ice volume changes have controlled most of the North Atlantic surface-ocean and deep-ocean responses for the last 1.6 m.y. The delta13O, percent CaCO3, and SST records at site 607 also show prominent changes at low frequencies, including a prominent long-wavelength oscillation toward glacial conditions that is centered between 0.9 and 0.6 Ma. These changes appear to be associated neither with orbital forcing nor with changes in ice volume.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.