System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Three-dimensional finite element thermal analysis of dental tissues irradiated with Er,Cr:YSGG laser

In the present study, a finite element model of a half-sectioned molar tooth was developed in order to understand the thermal behavior of dental hard tissues (both enamel and dentin) under laser irradiation. The model was validated by comparing it with an in vitro experiment where a sound molar tooth was irradiated by an Er,Cr:YSGG pulsed laser. The numerical tooth model was conceived to simulate the in vitro experiment, reproducing the dimensions and physical conditions of the typical molar sound tooth, considering laser energy absorption and calculating the heat transfer through the dental tissues in three dimensions. The numerical assay considered the same three laser energy densities at the same wavelength (2.79 mu m) used in the experiment. A thermographic camera was used to perform the in vitro experiment, in which an Er, Cr: YSGG laser (2.79 mu m) was used to irradiate tooth samples and the infrared images obtained were stored and analyzed. The temperature increments in both the finite element model and the in vitro experiment were compared. The distribution of temperature inside the tooth versus time plotted for two critical points showed a relatively good agreement between the results of the experiment and model. The three dimensional model allows one to understand how the heat propagates through the dentin and enamel and to relate the amount of energy applied, width of the laser pulses, and temperature inside the tooth. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics. [DOI: 10.1063/1.2953526]

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

PRECESSING JETS AND X-RAY BUBBLES FROM NGC 1275 (3C 84) IN THE PERSEUS GALAXY CLUSTER: A VIEW FROM THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

The Perseus galaxy cluster is known to present multiple and misaligned pairs of cavities seen in X-rays, as well as twisted kiloparsec-scale jets at radio wavelengths; both morphologies suggest that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) jet is subject to precession. In this work, we performed three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between a precessing AGN jet and the warm intracluster medium plasma, whose dynamics are coupled to a Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter gravitational potential. The AGN jet inflates cavities that become buoyantly unstable and rise up out of the cluster core. We found that under certain circumstances precession can originate multiple pairs of bubbles. For the physical conditions in the Perseus cluster, multiple pairs of bubbles are obtained for a jet precession opening angle >40 degrees acting for at least three precession periods, reproducing both radio and X-ray maps well. Based on such conditions, assuming that the Bardeen-Peterson effect is dominant, we studied the evolution of the precession opening angle of this system. We were able to constrain the ratio between the accretion disk and the black hole angular momenta as 0.7-1.4. We were also able to constrain the present precession angle to 30 degrees-40 degrees, as well as the approximate age of the inflated bubbles to 100-150 Myr.

Nilpotent noncommutativity and renormalization

We analyze renormalizability properties of noncommutative (NC) theories with a bifermionic NC parameter. We introduce a new four-dimensional scalar field model which is renormalizable at all orders of the loop expansion. We show that this model has an infrared stable fixed point (at the one-loop level). We check that the NC QED (which is one-loop renormalizable with a usual NC parameter) remains renormalizable when the NC parameter is bifermionic, at least to the extent of one-loop diagrams with external photon legs. Our general conclusion is that bifermionic noncommutativity improves renormalizability properties of NC theories.

Support vector machines for detecting age-related changes in running kinematics

Age-related changes in running kinematics have been reported in the literature using classical inferential statistics. However, this approach has been hampered by the increased number of biomechanical gait variables reported and subsequently the lack of differences presented in these studies. Data mining techniques have been applied in recent biomedical studies to solve this problem using a more general approach. In the present work, we re-analyzed lower extremity running kinematic data of 17 young and 17 elderly male runners using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification approach. In total, 31 kinematic variables were extracted to train the classification algorithm and test the generalized performance. The results revealed different accuracy rates across three different kernel methods adopted in the classifier, with the linear kernel performing the best. A subsequent forward feature selection algorithm demonstrated that with only six features, the linear kernel SVM achieved 100% classification performance rate, showing that these features provided powerful combined information to distinguish age groups. The results of the present work demonstrate potential in applying this approach to improve knowledge about the age-related differences in running gait biomechanics and encourages the use of the SVM in other clinical contexts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of physical and geometrical parameters on three-dimensional load transfer mechanism at tunnel face

Three-dimensional discretizations used in numerical analyses of tunnel construction normally include excavation step lengths much shorter than tunnel cross-section dimensions. Simulations have usually worked around this problem by using excavation steps that are much larger than the actual physical steps used in a real tunnel excavation. In contrast, the analyses performed in this study were based on finely discretized meshes capable of reproducing the excavation lengths actually used in tunnels, and the results obtained for internal forces are up to 100% greater than those found in other analyses available in the literature. Whereas most reports conclude that internal forces depend on support delay length alone, this study shows that geometric path dependency (reflected by excavation round length) is very strong, even considering linear elasticity. Moreover, many other solutions found in the literature have also neglected the importance of the relative stiffness between the ground mass and support structure, probably owing to the relatively coarse meshes used in these studies. The analyses presented here show that relative stiffness may account for internal force discrepancies in the order of 60%. A dimensionless expression that takes all these parameters into account is presented as a good approximation for the load transfer mechanism at the tunnel face.

THE VANISHING DISCOUNT APPROACH FOR THE AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This work is concerned with the existence of an optimal control strategy for the long-run average continuous control problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In Costa and Dufour (2008), sufficient conditions were derived to ensure the existence of an optimal control by using the vanishing discount approach. These conditions were mainly expressed in terms of the relative difference of the alpha-discount value functions. The main goal of this paper is to derive tractable conditions directly related to the primitive data of the PDMP to ensure the existence of an optimal control. The present work can be seen as a continuation of the results derived in Costa and Dufour (2008). Our main assumptions are written in terms of some integro-differential inequalities related to the so-called expected growth condition, and geometric convergence of the post-jump location kernel associated to the PDMP. An example based on the capacity expansion problem is presented, illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.

Structured lipids obtained by chemical interesterification of olive oil and palm stearin

Interesterification of palm stearin (PS) with liquid vegetable oils could yield a good solid fat stock that may impart desirable physical properties, because PS is a useful source of vegetable hard fat, providing beta` stable solid fats Dietary ingestion of olive oil (OO) has been reported to have physiological benefits such as lowering serum cholesterol levels Fat blends, formulated by binary blends of palm stearin and olive oil in different ratios, were subjected to chemical interesterification with sodium methoxide The original and interesterified blends were examined for fatty acid and triacylglycerol composition, melting point, solid fat content (SFC) and consistency. Interestenfication caused rearrangement of triacylglycerol species, reduction of trisaturated and triunsaturated triacylglycerols content and increase in diunsaturated-monosaturated triacylglycerols of all blends, resulting in lowering of melting point and solid fat content The incorporation of OO to PS reduced consistency, producing more plastic blends The mixture and chemical interesterification allowed obtaining fats with various degrees of plasticity, increasing the possibilities for the commercial use of palm stearin and olive oil (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Effects of chemical interesterification on physicochemical properties of blends of palm stearin and palm olein

Chemical interesterification is an important technological option for the production of fats targeting commercial applications. Fat blends, formulated by binary blends of palm stearin and palm olein in different ratios, were subjected to chemical interesterification. The following determinations, before and after the interesterification reactions, were done: fatty acid composition, softening point, melting point, solid fat content and consistency. For the analytical responses a multiple regression statistical model was applied. This study has shown that blending and chemical interesterifications are an effective way to modify the physical and chemical properties of palm stearin, palm olein and their blends. The mixture and chemical interesterification allowed obtaining fats with various degrees of plasticity, increasing the possibilities for the commercial use of palm stearin and palm olein. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zero trans fats from soybean oil and fully hydrogenated soybean oil: Physico-chemical properties and food applications

Blends of soybean oil (50) and fully hydrogenated soybean oil (FHSBO), with 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% FHSBO (w/w) content were interesterified under the following conditions: 0.4% sodium methoxide, 500 rpm stirring, 100 degrees C, 20 min. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, melting point, solid fat content (SFC) and consistency. Interesterification caused considerable rearrangement of triacylglycerol species, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in monounsaturated and diunsaturated triacylglycerols, resulting in lowering of respective melting points. The interesterified blends displayed reduced SFC at all temperatures and more linear melting profiles as compared with the original blends. Yield values showed increased plasticity in the blends after the reaction. Isosolid diagrams before and after the reaction showed no eutectic interactions. The 90:10, 80:20, 70:30 and 60:40 interesterified SO:FHSBO blends displayed characteristics suited to application, respectively, as liquid shortening, table margarine, baking/confectionery fat and all-purpose shortenings/biscuit-filing base. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Novel Nonparametric Density Estimator

We present a novel nonparametric density estimator and a new data-driven bandwidth selection method with excellent properties. The approach is in- spired by the principles of the generalized cross entropy method. The pro- posed density estimation procedure has numerous advantages over the tra- ditional kernel density estimator methods. Firstly, for the first time in the nonparametric literature, the proposed estimator allows for a genuine incor- poration of prior information in the density estimation procedure. Secondly, the approach provides the first data-driven bandwidth selection method that is guaranteed to provide a unique bandwidth for any data. Lastly, simulation examples suggest the proposed approach outperforms the current state of the art in nonparametric density estimation in terms of accuracy and reliability.

Determination of coalescence kernels for high-shear granulation using DEM simulations

Discrete element method (DEM) modeling is used in parallel with a model for coalescence of deformable surface wet granules. This produces a method capable of predicting both collision rates and coalescence efficiencies for use in derivation of an overall coalescence kernel. These coalescence kernels can then be used in computationally efficient meso-scale models such as population balance equation (PBE) models. A soft-sphere DEM model using periodic boundary conditions and a unique boxing scheme was utilized to simulate particle flow inside a high-shear mixer. Analysis of the simulation results provided collision frequency, aggregation frequency, kinetic energy, coalescence efficiency and compaction rates for the granulation process. This information can be used to bridge the gap in multi-scale modeling of granulation processes between the micro-scale DEM/coalescence modeling approach and a meso-scale PBE modeling approach.

Thermal effects in the evolution of initially layered mantle material

A simplified model for anisotropic mantle convection based on a novel class of rheologies, originally developed for folding instabilities in multilayered rock (MUHLHAUS et al., 2002), is extended ¨ through the introduction of a thermal anisotropy dependent on the local layering. To examine the effect of the thermal anisotropy on the evolution of mantle material, a parallel implementation of this model was undertaken using the Escript modelling toolkit and the Finley finite-element computational kernel (DAVIES et al., 2004). For the cases studied, there appears too little if any effect. For comparative purposes, the effects of anisotropic shear viscosity and the introduced thermal anisotropy are also presented. These results contribute to the characterization of viscous anisotropic mantle convection subject to variation in thermal conductivities and shear viscosities.