A data fusion approach of multiple maintenance data sources for real-world reliability modelling

A central tenet in the theory of reliability modelling is the quantification of the probability of asset failure. In general, reliability depends on asset age and the maintenance policy applied. Usually, failure and maintenance times are the primary inputs to reliability models. However, for many organisations, different aspects of these data are often recorded in different databases (e.g. work order notifications, event logs, condition monitoring data, and process control data). These recorded data cannot be interpreted individually, since they typically do not have all the information necessary to ascertain failure and preventive maintenance times. This paper presents a methodology for the extraction of failure and preventive maintenance times using commonly-available, real-world data sources. A text-mining approach is employed to extract keywords indicative of the source of the maintenance event. Using these keywords, a Naïve Bayes classifier is then applied to attribute each machine stoppage to one of two classes: failure or preventive. The accuracy of the algorithm is assessed and the classified failure time data are then presented. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated on a maintenance data set from an Australian electricity company.

Development and psychometric properties of the DCDDaily: a new test for clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living in children with developmental coordination disorder

Objective To develop the DCDDaily, an instrument for objective and standardized clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living (ADL) in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD), and to investigate its usability, reliability, and validity. Subjects Five to eight-year-old children with and without DCD. Main measures The DCDDaily was developed based on thorough review of the literature and extensive expert involvement. To investigate the usability (assessment time and feasibility), reliability (internal consistency and repeatability), and validity (concurrent and discriminant validity) of the DCDDaily, children were assessed with the DCDDaily and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test, and their parents filled in the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire. Results 459 children were assessed (DCD group, n = 55; normative reference group, n = 404). Assessment was possible within 30 minutes and in any clinical setting. For internal consistency, Cronbach’s α = 0.83. Intraclass correlation = 0.87 for test–retest reliability and 0.89 for inter-rater reliability. Concurrent correlations with Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test and questionnaires were ρ = −0.494, 0.239, and −0.284, p < 0.001. Discriminant validity measures showed significantly worse performance in the DCD group than in the control group (mean (SD) score 33 (5.6) versus 26 (4.3), p < 0.001). The area under curve characteristic = 0.872, sensitivity and specificity were 80%. Conclusions The DCDDaily is a valid and reliable instrument for clinical assessment of capacity in ADL, that is feasible for use in clinical practice.

Reliability Optimization using SLUMT

This paper is concerned with the reliability optimization of a spatially redundant system, subject to various constraints, by using nonlinear programming. The constrained optimization problem is converted into a sequence of unconstrained optimization problems by using a penalty function. The new problem is then solved by the conjugate gradient method. The advantages of this method are highlighted.

Performance reliability of high-maintenance systems

The time–history of the performance of a system is treated as a stochastic corrective process, in which deterioration due to aging is counteracted at brief maintenance checks. Using a diffusion approximation for the deterioration, simple models are proposed for describing maintenance either by component replacement or by performance restoration. Equilibrium solutions of the models show that the performance has a probability distribution with exponential tails: the uncritical use of Gaussians can grossly underestimate the probability of poor performance. The proposed models are supported by recent observational evidence on aircraft track-keeping errors, which are shown to follow the modified exponential distribution derived here. The analysis also brings out the relation between the deterioration characteristics of the system and the intensity of the maintenance effort required to achieve a given performance reliability.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

Liquid-liquid critical phenomena. The coexistence curve of n-heptane-acetic anhydride

The coexistence curve of the binary liquid mixture n-heptane-acetic anhydride has been determined by the observation of the transition temperatures of 76 samples over the range of compositions. The functional form of the difference in order parameter, in terms of either the mole fraction or the volume fraction, is consistent with theoretical predictions invoking the concept of universality at critical points. The average value of the order parameter, the diameter of the coexistence curve, shows an anomaly which can be described by either an exponent 1 - a, as predicted by various theories (where a is the critical exponent of the specific heat), or by an exponent 20 (where P is the coexistence curve exponent), as expected when the order parameter used is not the one the diameter of which diverges asymptotically as 1 - a.

Acoustic emission source location in composite structure by Voronoi construction using geodesic curve evolution

Conventional analytical/numerical methods employing triangulation technique are suitable for locating acoustic emission (AE) source in a planar structure without structural discontinuities. But these methods cannot be extended to structures with complicated geometry, and, also, the problem gets compounded if the material of the structure is anisotropic warranting complex analytical velocity models. A geodesic approach using Voronoi construction is proposed in this work to locate the AE source in a composite structure. The approach is based on the fact that the wave takes minimum energy path to travel from the source to any other point in the connected domain. The geodesics are computed on the meshed surface of the structure using graph theory based on Dijkstra's algorithm. By propagating the waves in reverse virtually from these sensors along the geodesic path and by locating the first intersection point of these waves, one can get the AE source location. In this work, the geodesic approach is shown more suitable for a practicable source location solution in a composite structure with arbitrary surface containing finite discontinuities. Experiments have been conducted on composite plate specimens of simple and complex geometry to validate this method.

The assessment of ecological condition in south-east Queensland, Australia: An evaluation of reliability across variable environments and surrogate efficacy for biodiversity values

Multimetric ecological condition assessment has become an important biodiversity management tool. This study was the first to examine the reliability of these ecological surrogates across variable environments, and the implications for surrogate efficacy. It was demonstrated that through strategic application and design of the multimetric ecological condition index, the effects of environmental gradients and disturbance regimes can be mitigated, and that ecological condition assessment may serve as a scientifically rigorous approach for conservation planning.

Multi-channel curve crossing problems: analytically solvable model

We have proposed a general method for finding the exact analytical solution for the multi-channel curve crossing problem in the presence of delta function couplings. We have analysed the case where aa potential energy curve couples to a continuum (in energy) of the potential energy curves.

Optimum Design of Bridge Abutments under Seismic Conditions: Reliability-Based Approach

The paper focuses on the reliability-based design optimization of gravity wall bridge abutments when subjected to active condition during earthquakes. An analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of bridge abutments is presented. Planar failure surface has been considered in conjunction with the pseudostatic limit equilibrium method for the calculation of the seismic active earth pressure. Analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of bridge abutments when subjected to earthquake loads. Reliability analysis is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure viz. sliding failure of the wall on its base, overturning failure about its toe (or eccentricity failure of the resultant force) and bearing failure of foundation soil below the base of wall. The properties of backfill and foundation soil below the base of abutment are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as horizontal seismic acceleration and shear wave velocity propagating through backfill soil are considered. The optimum proportions of the abutment needed to maintain the stability are obtained against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability.

The application of islanded photovoltaic cells and battery storage on the reliability of distribution networks

Renewable energy resources, in particularly PV and battery storage are increasingly becoming part of residential and agriculture premises to manage their electricity consumption. This thesis addresses the tremendous technical, financial and planning challenges for utilities created by these increases, by offering techniques to examine the significance of various renewable resources in electricity network planning. The outcome of this research should assist utilities and customers for adequate planning that can be financially effective.

Optimum design of cantilever sheet pile walls in sandy soils using inverse reliability approach

In this paper an approach for obtaining depth and section modulus of the cantilever sheet pile wall using inverse reliability method is described. The proposed procedure employs inverse first order reliability method to obtain the design penetration depth and section modulus of the steel sheet pile wall in order that the reliability of the wall against failure modes must meet a desired level of safety. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the effect of uncertainties in design parameters on the reliability of cantilever sheet pile walls. The analysis is performed by treating back fill soil properties, depth of the water table from the top of the sheet pile wall, yield strength of steel and section modulus of steel pile as random variables. Two limit states, viz., rotational and flexural failure of sheet pile wall are considered. The results using this approach are used to develop a set of reliability based design charts for different coefficients of variation of friction angle of the backfill (5%, 10% and 15%). System reliability considerations in terms of series and parallel systems are also studied.

Real Theta Characteristics And Automorphisms Of A Real Curve

Let X be a geometrically irreductble smooth projective cruve defined over R. of genus at least 2. that admits a nontrivial automorphism, sigma. Assume that X does not have any real points. Let tau be the antiholomorphic involution of the complexification lambda(C) of X. We show that if the action of sigma on the set S(X) of all real theta characteristics of X is trivial. then the order of sigma is even, say 2k and the automorphism tau o (sigma) over cap (lambda) of X-C has a fixed point, where (sigma) over cap is the automorphism of X x C-R defined by sigma We then show that there exists X with a real point and admitting a nontrivial automorphism sigma, such that the action of sigma on S(X) is trivial, while X/ not equal P-R(1) We also give an example of X with no real points and admitting a nontrivial automorphisim sigma such that the automorphism tau o (sigma) over cap (lambda) has a fixed point, the action of sigma on S(X) is trivial, and X/ not equal P-R(1)

Reliability Analysis of Torsional MEMS Varactor

This paper discusses reliability issues in torsional MEMS varactor. Self-actuation due to high ac signals is analyzed, and solutions are proposed. The mode of failure at high actuation voltages is analyzed and established through experiments. Issues like stiction due to high voltages and effect of high residual stress are studied experimentally.

Target reliability based design optimization of anchored cantilever sheet pile walls

In this study, the stability of anchored cantilever sheet pile wall in sandy soils is investigated using reliability analysis. Targeted stability is formulated as an optimization problem in the framework of an inverse first order reliability method. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of parameters influencing the stability of sheet pile wall. Backfill soil properties, soil - steel pile interface friction angle, depth of the water table from the top of the sheet pile wall, total depth of embedment below the dredge line, yield strength of steel, section modulus of steel sheet pile, and anchor pull are all treated as random variables. The sheet pile wall system is modeled as a series of failure mode combination. Penetration depth, anchor pull, and section modulus are calculated for various target component and system reliability indices based on three limit states. These are: rotational failure about the position of the anchor rod, expressed in terms of moment ratio; sliding failure mode, expressed in terms of force ratio; and flexural failure of the steel sheet pile wall, expressed in terms of the section modulus ratio. An attempt is made to propose reliability based design charts considering the failure criteria as well as the variability in the parameters. The results of the study are compared with studies in the literature.