Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Learning on human resources management in the radiology residency program

Objective To investigate the process of learning on human resource management in the radiology residency program at Escola Paulista de Medicina – Universidade Federal de São Paulo, aiming at improving radiologists' education. Materials and Methods Exploratory study with a quantitative and qualitative approach developed with the faculty staff, preceptors and residents of the program, utilizing a Likert questionnaire (46), taped interviews (18), and categorization based on thematic analysis. Results According to 71% of the participants, residents have clarity about their role in the development of their activities, and 48% said that residents have no opportunity to learn how to manage their work in a multidisciplinary team. Conclusion Isolation at medical records room, little interactivity between sectors with diversified and fixed activities, absence of a previous culture and lack of a training program on human resources management may interfere in the development of skills for the residents' practice. There is a need to review objectives of the medical residency in the field of radiology, incorporating, whenever possible, the commitment to the training of skills related to human resources management thus widening the scope of abilities of the future radiologists.

Solutions in radiology services management: a literature review

AbstractObjective:The present study was aimed at reviewing the literature to identify solutions for problems observed in radiology services.Materials and Methods:Basic, qualitative, exploratory literature review at Scopus and SciELO databases, utilizing the Mendeley and Illustrator CC Adobe softwares.Results:In the databases, 565 papers – 120 out of them, pdf free – were identified. Problems observed in the radiology sector are related to procedures scheduling, humanization, lack of training, poor knowledge and use of management techniques, and interaction with users. The design management provides the services with interesting solutions such as Benchmarking, CRM, Lean Approach, ServiceBlueprinting, continued education, among others.Conclusion:Literature review is an important tool to identify problems and respective solutions. However, considering the small number of studies approaching management of radiology services, this is a great field of research for the development of deeper studies.

Analysis of translational errors in frame-based and frameless cranial radiosurgery using an anthropomorphic phantom

Abstract Objective: To evaluate three-dimensional translational setup errors and residual errors in image-guided radiosurgery, comparing frameless and frame-based techniques, using an anthropomorphic phantom. Materials and Methods: We initially used specific phantoms for the calibration and quality control of the image-guided system. For the hidden target test, we used an Alderson Radiation Therapy (ART)-210 anthropomorphic head phantom, into which we inserted four 5mm metal balls to simulate target treatment volumes. Computed tomography images were the taken with the head phantom properly positioned for frameless and frame-based radiosurgery. Results: For the frameless technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.22 ± 0.04 mm for setup errors and 0.14 ± 0.02 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 0.28 mm and 0.16 mm, respectively. For the frame-based technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.73 ± 0.14 mm for setup errors and 0.31 ± 0.04 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 1.15 mm and 0.63 mm, respectively. Conclusion: The mean values, standard deviations, and combined uncertainties showed no evidence of a significant differences between the two techniques when the head phantom ART-210 was used.

Least squares regression with errors in both variables: case studies

Analytical curves are normally obtained from discrete data by least squares regression. The least squares regression of data involving significant error in both x and y values should not be implemented by ordinary least squares (OLS). In this work, the use of orthogonal distance regression (ODR) is discussed as an alternative approach in order to take into account the error in the x variable. Four examples are presented to illustrate deviation between the results from both regression methods. The examples studied show that, in some situations, ODR coefficients must substitute for those of OLS, and, in other situations, the difference is not significant.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

Thermal and air conditions inside animal facilities change during the day due to the influence of the external environment. For statistical and geostatistical analyses to be representative, a large number of points spatially distributed in the facility area must be monitored. This work suggests that the time variation of environmental variables of interest for animal production, monitored within animal facility, can be modeled accurately from discrete-time records. The aim of this study was to develop a numerical method to correct the temporal variations of these environmental variables, transforming the data so that such observations are independent of the time spent during the measurement. The proposed method approached values recorded with time delays to those expected at the exact moment of interest, if the data were measured simultaneously at the moment at all points distributed spatially. The correction model for numerical environmental variables was validated for environmental air temperature parameter, and the values corrected by the method did not differ by Tukey's test at 5% significance of real values recorded by data loggers.

Neutron tomography using projection data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation for nondestructive evaluation

This work present the application of a computer package for generating of projection data for neutron computerized tomography, and in second part, discusses an application of neutron tomography, using the projection data obtained by Monte Carlo technique, for the detection and localization of light materials such as those containing hydrogen, concealed by heavy materials such as iron and lead. For tomographic reconstructions of the samples simulated use was made of only six equal projection angles distributed between 0º and 180º, with reconstruction making use of an algorithm (ARIEM), based on the principle of maximum entropy. With the neutron tomography it was possible to detect and locate polyethylene and water hidden by lead and iron (with 1cm-thick). Thus, it is demonstrated that thermal neutrons tomography is a viable test method which can provide important interior information about test components, so, extremely useful in routine industrial applications.

Carte de l'ancien et du nouveau monde, suivant une projection nouvelle

Nimeketiedot nimiönkehyksissä

Allgemeine Welt-Karte in Mercator's Projection zur Übersicht der Deutschen Consulate : Deutscher Seeverkehrs-Linien und des Welt-Postvereins

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Characteristic Approach to Predicting Analysts’ Forecast Errors in the Finnish Market

Extensive literature shows that analysts’ forecasts and recommendations are often biased. Thus, it is important for the financial market to be able to recognize this bias to be able to correctly valuate public companies. This thesis uses characteristic approach, which was introduced by So (2013, pp. 615-640), to forecast analysts’ forecast errors and tests if predictable forecast error is fully incorporated into share prices. Data is collected of listed Finnish companies. Thesis’ timeframe spans over ten years from 2004 to 2013 consisting of 788 firm-years. Although there is earlier evidence that the characteristic approach is able to predict analysts’ forecast errors, no support for this is found in the Finnish market. This thesis contributes to the current knowledge by showing that the characteristic approach does not work universally as such but requires development to work especially in the smaller markets.

Errors in nonword repetition: bridging short- and long-term memory

According to the working memory model, the phonological loop is the component of working memory specialized in processing and manipulating limited amounts of speech-based information. The Children's Test of Nonword Repetition (CNRep) is a suitable measure of phonological short-term memory for English-speaking children, which was validated by the Brazilian Children's Test of Pseudoword Repetition (BCPR) as a Portuguese-language version. The objectives of the present study were: i) to investigate developmental aspects of the phonological memory processing by error analysis in the nonword repetition task, and ii) to examine phoneme (substitution, omission and addition) and order (migration) errors made in the BCPR by 180 normal Brazilian children of both sexes aged 4-10, from preschool to 4th grade. The dominant error was substitution [F(3,525) = 180.47; P < 0.0001]. The performance was age-related [F(4,175) = 14.53; P < 0.0001]. The length effect, i.e., more errors in long than in short items, was observed [F(3,519) = 108.36; P < 0.0001]. In 5-syllable pseudowords, errors occurred mainly in the middle of the stimuli, before the syllabic stress [F(4,16) = 6.03; P = 0.003]; substitutions appeared more at the end of the stimuli, after the stress [F(12,48) = 2.27; P = 0.02]. In conclusion, the BCPR error analysis supports the idea that phonological loop capacity is relatively constant during development, although school learning increases the efficiency of this system. Moreover, there are indications that long-term memory contributes to holding memory trace. The findings were discussed in terms of distinctiveness, clustering and redintegration hypotheses.

Relationship between Brazilian airline pilot errors and time of day

Flight safety is one of the most important and frequently discussed issues in aviation. Recent accident inquiries have raised questions as to how the work of flight crews is organized and the extent to which these conditions may have been contributing factors to accidents. Fatigue is based on physiologic limitations, which are reflected in performance deficits. The purpose of the present study was to provide an analysis of the periods of the day in which pilots working for a commercial airline presented major errors. Errors made by 515 captains and 472 copilots were analyzed using data from flight operation quality assurance systems. To analyze the times of day (shifts) during which incidents occurred, we divided the light-dark cycle (24:00) in four periods: morning, afternoon, night, and early morning. The differences of risk during the day were reported as the ratio of morning to afternoon, morning to night and morning to early morning error rates. For the purposes of this research, level 3 events alone were taken into account, since these were the most serious in which company operational limits were exceeded or when established procedures were not followed. According to airline flight schedules, 35% of flights take place in the morning period, 32% in the afternoon, 26% at night, and 7% in the early morning. Data showed that the risk of errors increased by almost 50% in the early morning relative to the morning period (ratio of 1:1.46). For the period of the afternoon, the ratio was 1:1.04 and for the night a ratio of 1:1.05 was found. These results showed that the period of the early morning represented a greater risk of attention problems and fatigue.

Perceptions of intergroup bias : the roles of social projection and meta-stereotypes

Underlying intergroup perceptions include processes of social projection (perceiving personal traitslbeliefs in others, see Krueger 1998) and meta-stereotyping (thinking about other groups' perceptions of one's own group, see Vorauer et aI., 1998). Two studies were conducted to investigate social projection and meta-stereotypes in the domain of White-Black racial relations. Study 1, a correlational study, examined the social projection of prejudice and 'prejudiced' meta-stereotypes among Whites. Results revealed that (a) Whites socially projected their intergroup attitudes onto other Whites (and Blacks) [i.e., Whites higher in prejudice against Blacks believed a large percentage of Whites (Blacks) are prejudiced against Blacks (Whites), whereas Whites low in prejudice believed a smaller percentage of Whites (Blacks) are prejudiced]; (b) Whites held the meta:..stereotype that their group (Whites) is viewed by Blacks to be prejudiced; and (c) prejudiced meta-stereotypes may be formed through the social projection of intergroup attitudes (result of path-model tests). Further, several correlates of social projection and meta-stereotypes were identified, including the finding that feeling negatively stereotyped by an outgroup predicted outgroup avoidance through heightened intergroup anxiety. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings, investigating the social projection of ingroup favouritism and meta- and other-stereotypes about ingroup favouritism. These processes were examined experimentally using an anticipated intergroup contact paradigm. The goal was to understand the experimental conditions under which people would display the strongest social projection of intergroup attitudes, and when experimentally induced meta-stereotypes (vs. other-stereotypes; beliefs about the group 11 preferences of one's outgroup) would be most damaging to intergroup contact. White participants were randomly assigned to one of six conditions and received (alleged) feedback from a previously completed computer-based test. Depending on condition, this information suggested that: (a) the participant favoured Whites over Blacks; (b) previous White participants favoured Whites over Blacks; (c) the participant's Black partner favoured Blacks over Whites; (d) previous Black participants favoured Blacks over Whites; (e) the participant's Black partner viewed the participant to favour Whites over Blacks; or (£) Black participants previously participating viewed Whites to favour Whites over Blacks. In a defensive reaction, Whites exhibited enhanced social projection of personal intergroup attitudes onto their ingroup under experimental manipulations characterized by self-concept threat (i.e., when the computer revealed that the participant favoured the ingroup or was viewed to favour the ingroup). Manipulated meta- and otherstereotype information that introduced intergroup contact threat, on the other hand, each exerted a strong negative impact on intergroup contact expectations (e.g., anxiety). Personal meta-stereotype manipulations (i.e., when the participant was informed that her/ his partner thinks s/he favours the ingroup) exerted an especially negative impact on intergroup behaviour, evidenced by increased avoidance of the upcoming interracial interaction. In contrast, personal self-stereotype manipulations (i.e., computer revealed that one favoured the ingroup) ironically improved upcoming intergroup contact expectations and intentions, likely due to an attempt to reduce the discomfort of holding negative intergroup attitudes. Implications and directions for future research are considered.