Assessment of candidemia-attributable mortality in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis

[EN] Introduction: Candidemia in critically ill patients is usually a severe and life-threatening condition with a high crude mortality. Very few studies have focused on the impact of candidemia on ICU patient outcome and attributable mortality still remains controversial. This study was carried out to determine the attributable mortality of ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted of all consecutive non-neutropenic adult patients admitted for at least seven days to 36 ICUs in Spain, France, and Argentina between April 2006 and June 2007. The probability of developing candidemia was estimated using a multivariate logistic regression model. Each patient with ICU-acquired candidemia was matched with two control patients with the nearest available Mahalanobis metric matching within the calipers defined by the propensity score. Standardized differences tests (SDT) for each variable before and after matching were calculated. Attributable mortality was determined by a modified Poisson regression model adjusted by those variables that still presented certain misalignments defined as a SDT > 10%. Results: Thirty-eight candidemias were diagnosed in 1,107 patients (34.3 episodes/1,000 ICU patients). Patients with and without candidemia had an ICU crude mortality of 52.6% versus 20.6% (P < 0.001) and a crude hospital mortality of 55.3% versus 29.6% (P = 0.01), respectively. In the propensity matched analysis, the corresponding figures were 51.4% versus 37.1% (P = 0.222) and 54.3% versus 50% (P = 0.680). After controlling residual confusion by the Poisson regression model, the relative risk (RR) of ICU- and hospital-attributable mortality from candidemia was RR 1.298 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.98) and RR 1.096 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.69), respectively. Conclusions: ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients is not associated with an increase in either ICU or hospital mortality.

Constraints on mantle melting from major and trace element systematics in residual abyssal peridotites

ZusammenfassungDie Bildung von mittelozeanischen Rückenbasalten (MORB) ist einer der wichtigsten Stoffflüsse der Erde. Jährlich wird entlang der 75.000 km langen mittelozeanischen Rücken mehr als 20 km3 neue magmatische Kruste gebildet, das sind etwa 90 Prozent der globalen Magmenproduktion. Obwohl ozeanische Rücken und MORB zu den am meisten untersuchten geologischen Themenbereichen gehören, existieren weiterhin einige Streit-fragen. Zu den wichtigsten zählt die Rolle von geodynamischen Rahmenbedingungen, wie etwa Divergenzrate oder die Nähe zu Hotspots oder Transformstörungen, sowie der absolute Aufschmelzgrad, oder die Tiefe, in der die Aufschmelzung unter den Rücken beginnt. Diese Dissertation widmet sich diesen Themen auf der Basis von Haupt- und Spurenelementzusammensetzungen in Mineralen ozeanischer Mantelgesteine.Geochemische Charakteristika von MORB deuten darauf hin, dass der ozeanische Mantel im Stabilitätsfeld von Granatperidotit zu schmelzen beginnt. Neuere Experimente zeigen jedoch, dass die schweren Seltenerdelemente (SEE) kompatibel im Klinopyroxen (Cpx) sind. Aufgrund dieser granatähnlichen Eigenschaft von Cpx wird Granat nicht mehr zur Erklärung der MORB Daten benötigt, wodurch sich der Beginn der Aufschmelzung zu geringeren Drucken verschiebt. Aus diesem Grund ist es wichtig zu überprüfen, ob diese Hypothese mit Daten von abyssalen Peridotiten in Einklang zu bringen ist. Diese am Ozeanboden aufgeschlossenen Mantelfragmente stellen die Residuen des Aufschmelz-prozesses dar, und ihr Mineralchemismus enthält Information über die Bildungs-bedingungen der Magmen. Haupt- und Spurenelementzusammensetzungen von Peridotit-proben des Zentralindischen Rückens (CIR) wurden mit Mikrosonde und Ionensonde bestimmt, und mit veröffentlichten Daten verglichen. Cpx der CIR Peridotite weisen niedrige Verhältnisse von mittleren zu schweren SEE und hohe absolute Konzentrationen der schweren SEE auf. Aufschmelzmodelle eines Spinellperidotits unter Anwendung von üblichen, inkompatiblen Verteilungskoeffizienten (Kd's) können die gemessenen Fraktionierungen von mittleren zu schweren SEE nicht reproduzieren. Die Anwendung der neuen Kd's, die kompatibles Verhalten der schweren SEE im Cpx vorhersagen, ergibt zwar bessere Resultate, kann jedoch nicht die am stärksten fraktionierten Proben erklären. Darüber hinaus werden sehr hohe Aufschmelzgrade benötigt, was nicht mit Hauptelementdaten in Einklang zu bringen ist. Niedrige (~3-5%) Aufschmelzgrade im Stabilitätsfeld von Granatperidotit, gefolgt von weiterer Aufschmelzung von Spinellperidotit kann jedoch die Beobachtungen weitgehend erklären. Aus diesem Grund muss Granat weiterhin als wichtige Phase bei der Genese von MORB betrachtet werden (Kapitel 1).Eine weitere Hürde zum quantitativen Verständnis von Aufschmelzprozessen unter mittelozeanischen Rücken ist die fehlende Korrelation zwischen Haupt- und Spuren-elementen in residuellen abyssalen Peridotiten. Das Cr/(Cr+Al) Verhältnis (Cr#) in Spinell wird im Allgemeinen als guter qualitativer Indikator für den Aufschmelzgrad betrachtet. Die Mineralchemie der CIR Peridotite und publizierte Daten von anderen abyssalen Peridotiten zeigen, dass die schweren SEE sehr gut (r2 ~ 0.9) mit Cr# der koexistierenden Spinelle korreliert. Die Auswertung dieser Korrelation ergibt einen quantitativen Aufschmelz-indikator für Residuen, welcher auf dem Spinellchemismus basiert. Damit kann der Schmelzgrad als Funktion von Cr# in Spinell ausgedrückt werden: F = 0.10×ln(Cr#) + 0.24 (Hellebrand et al., Nature, in review; Kapitel 2). Die Anwendung dieses Indikators auf Mantelproben, für die keine Ionensondendaten verfügbar sind, ermöglicht es, geochemische und geophysikalischen Daten zu verbinden. Aus geodynamischer Perspektive ist der Gakkel Rücken im Arktischen Ozean von großer Bedeutung für das Verständnis von Aufschmelzprozessen, da er weltweit die niedrigste Divergenzrate aufweist und große Transformstörungen fehlen. Publizierte Basaltdaten deuten auf einen extrem niedrigen Aufschmelzgrad hin, was mit globalen Korrelationen im Einklang steht. Stark alterierte Mantelperidotite einer Lokalität entlang des kaum beprobten Gakkel Rückens wurden deshalb auf Primärminerale untersucht. Nur in einer Probe sind oxidierte Spinellpseudomorphosen mit Spuren primärer Spinelle erhalten geblieben. Ihre Cr# ist signifikant höher als die einiger Peridotite von schneller divergierenden Rücken und ihr Schmelzgrad ist damit höher als aufgrund der Basaltzusammensetzungen vermutet. Der unter Anwendung des oben erwähnten Indikators ermittelte Schmelzgrad ermöglicht die Berechnung der Krustenmächtigkeit am Gakkel Rücken. Diese ist wesentlich größer als die aus Schweredaten ermittelte Mächtigkeit, oder die aus der globalen Korrelation zwischen Divergenzrate und mittels Seismik erhaltene Krustendicke. Dieses unerwartete Ergebnis kann möglicherweise auf kompositionelle Heterogenitäten bei niedrigen Schmelzgraden, oder auf eine insgesamt größere Verarmung des Mantels unter dem Gakkel Rücken zurückgeführt werden (Hellebrand et al., Chem.Geol., in review; Kapitel 3).Zusätzliche Informationen zur Modellierung und Analytik sind im Anhang A-C aufgeführt

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Life Cycle Assessment of Peach Nectar: a comparative analysis between conventional and bioenergy-from-waste integrated food chains

Modern food systems are characterized by a high energy intensity as well as by the production of large amounts of waste, residuals and food losses. This inefficiency presents major consequences, in terms of GHG emissions, waste disposal, and natural resource depletion. The research hypothesis is that residual biomass material could contribute to the energetic needs of food systems, if recovered as an integrated renewable energy source (RES), leading to a sensitive reduction of the impacts of food systems, primarily in terms of fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In order to assess these effects, a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted to compare two different food systems: a fossil fuel-based system and an integrated system with the use of residual as RES for self-consumption. The food product under analysis has been the peach nectar, from cultivation to end-of-life. The aim of this LCA is twofold. On one hand, it allows an evaluation of the energy inefficiencies related to agro-food waste. On the other hand, it illustrates how the integration of bioenergy into food systems could effectively contribute to reduce this inefficiency. Data about inputs and waste generated has been collected mainly through literature review and databases. Energy balance, GHG emissions (Global Warming Potential) and waste generation have been analyzed in order to identify the relative requirements and contribution of the different segments. An evaluation of the energy “loss” through the different categories of waste allowed to provide details about the consequences associated with its management and/or disposal. Results should provide an insight of the impacts associated with inefficiencies within food systems. The comparison provides a measure of the potential reuse of wasted biomass and the amount of energy recoverable, that could represent a first step for the formulation of specific policies on the integration of bioenergies for self-consumption.

Numerical methods for the dispersion analysis of Guided Waves

The use of guided ultrasonic waves (GUW) has increased considerably in the fields of non-destructive (NDE) testing and structural health monitoring (SHM) due to their ability to perform long range inspections, to probe hidden areas as well as to provide a complete monitoring of the entire waveguide. Guided waves can be fully exploited only once their dispersive properties are known for the given waveguide. In this context, well stated analytical and numerical methods are represented by the Matrix family methods and the Semi Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) methods. However, while the former are limited to simple geometries of finite or infinite extent, the latter can model arbitrary cross-section waveguides of finite domain only. This thesis is aimed at developing three different numerical methods for modelling wave propagation in complex translational invariant systems. First, a classical SAFE formulation for viscoelastic waveguides is extended to account for a three dimensional translational invariant static prestress state. The effect of prestress, residual stress and applied loads on the dispersion properties of the guided waves is shown. Next, a two-and-a-half Boundary Element Method (2.5D BEM) for the dispersion analysis of damped guided waves in waveguides and cavities of arbitrary cross-section is proposed. The attenuation dispersive spectrum due to material damping and geometrical spreading of cavities with arbitrary shape is shown for the first time. Finally, a coupled SAFE-2.5D BEM framework is developed to study the dispersion characteristics of waves in viscoelastic waveguides of arbitrary geometry embedded in infinite solid or liquid media. Dispersion of leaky and non-leaky guided waves in terms of speed and attenuation, as well as the radiated wavefields, can be computed. The results obtained in this thesis can be helpful for the design of both actuation and sensing systems in practical application, as well as to tune experimental setup.

Laser shock peening treatment to control and moderate fatigue crack growth in aircraft structure based on residual stress engineering approach

Laser Shock Peening (LSP) is a surface enhancement treatment which induces a significant layer of beneficial compressive residual stresses of up to several mm underneath the surface of metal components in order to improve the detrimental effects of the crack growth behavior rate in it. The aim of this thesis is to predict the crack growth behavior in metallic specimens with one or more stripes which define the compressive residual stress area induced by the Laser Shock Peening treatment. The process was applied as crack retardation stripes perpendicular to the crack propagation direction with the object of slowing down the crack when approaching the peened stripes. The finite element method has been applied to simulate the redistribution of stresses in a cracked model when it is subjected to a tension load and to a compressive residual stress field, and to evaluate the Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) in this condition. Finally, the Afgrow software is used to predict the crack growth behavior of the component following the Laser Shock Peening treatment and to detect the improvement in the fatigue life comparing it to the baseline specimen. An educational internship at the “Research & Technologies Germany – Hamburg” department of AIRBUS helped to achieve knowledge and experience to write this thesis. The main tasks of the thesis are the following: •To up to date Literature Survey related to “Laser Shock Peening in Metallic Structures” •To validate the FE model developed against experimental measurements at coupon level •To develop design of crack growth slowdown in Centered Cracked Tension specimens based on residual stress engineering approach using laser peened strip transversal to the crack path •To evaluate the Stress Intensity Factor values for Centered Cracked Tension specimens after the Laser Shock Peening treatment via Finite Element Analysis •To predict the crack growth behavior in Centered Cracked Tension specimens using as input the SIF values evaluated with the FE simulations •To validate the results by means of experimental tests

Geomorphological and statistical analysis on Ravenna dune fields changes, based on Terrestrial Laser Technology

Coastal sand dunes represent a richness first of all in terms of defense from the sea storms waves and the saltwater ingression; moreover these morphological elements constitute an unique ecosystem of transition between the sea and the land environment. The research about dune system is a strong part of the coastal sciences, since the last century. Nowadays this branch have assumed even more importance for two reasons: on one side the born of brand new technologies, especially related to the Remote Sensing, have increased the researcher possibilities; on the other side the intense urbanization of these days have strongly limited the dune possibilities of development and fragmented what was remaining from the last century. This is particularly true in the Ravenna area, where the industrialization united to the touristic economy and an intense subsidence, have left only few dune ridges residual still active. In this work three different foredune ridges, along the Ravenna coast, have been studied with Laser Scanner technology. This research didn’t limit to analyze volume or spatial difference, but try also to find new ways and new features to monitor this environment. Moreover the author planned a series of test to validate data from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS), with the additional aim of finalize a methodology to test 3D survey accuracy. Data acquired by TLS were then applied on one hand to test some brand new applications, such as Digital Shore Line Analysis System (DSAS) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to prove their efficacy in this field; on the other hand the author used TLS data to find any correlation with meteorological indexes (Forcing Factors), linked to sea and wind (Fryberger's method) applying statistical tools, such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

Analysis of aircraft load spectrum by means of flight simulator

Damage tolerance analysis is a quite new methodology based on prescribed inspections. The load spectra used to derive results of these analysis strongly influence the final defined inspections programs that for this reason must be as much as possible representative of load acting on the considered structural component and at the same time, obtained reducing both cost and time. The principal purpose of our work is in improving the actual condition developing a complete numerical Damage Tolerance analysis, able to prescribe inspection programs on typical aircraft critical components, respecting DT regulations, starting from much more specific load spectrum then those actually used today. In particular, these more specific load spectrum to design against fatigue have been obtained through an appositively derived flight simulator developed in a Matlab/Simulink environment. This dynamic model has been designed so that it can be used to simulate typical missions performing manually (joystick inputs) or completely automatic (reference trajectory need to be provided) flights. Once these flights have been simulated, model’s outputs are used to generate load spectrum that are then processed to get information (peaks, valleys) to perform statistical and/or comparison consideration with other load spectrum. However, also much more useful information (loads amplitude) have been extracted from these generated load spectrum to perform the previously mentioned predictions (Rainflow counting method is applied for this purpose). The entire developed methodology works in a complete automatic way, so that, once some specified input parameters have been introduced and different typical flights have been simulated both, manually or automatically, it is able to relate the effects of these simulated flights with the reduction of residual strength of the considered component.

Body mass index, hormone replacement therapy, and endometrial cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.

Factors predicting prognosis and recurrence in patients with esophago-gastric adenocarcinoma and histopathological response with less than 10 % residual tumor

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant treatment is an accepted standard approach for treating locally advanced esophago-gastric adenocarcinomas. Despite a response of the primary tumor, a significant percentage dies from tumor recurrence. The aim of this retrospective exploratory study from two academic centers was to identify predictors of survival and recurrence in histopathologically responding patients. METHODS: Two hundred thirty one patients with adenocarcinomas (esophagus: n = 185, stomach: n = 46, cT3/4, cN0/+, cM0) treated with preoperative chemotherapy (n = 212) or chemoradiotherapy (n = 19) followed by resection achieved a histopathological response (regression 1a: no residual tumor (n = 58), and regression 1b < 10 % residual tumor (n = 173)). RESULTS: The estimated median overall survival was 92.4 months (5-year survival, 56.6 %) for all patients. For patients with regression 1a, median survival is not reached (5-year survival, 71.6 %) compared to patients with regression 1b with 75.3 months median (5-year survival, 52.2 %) (p = 0.031). Patients with a regression 1a had lymph node metastases in 19.0 versus 33.7 % in regression 1b. The ypT-category (p < 0.001), the M-category (p = 0.005), and the type of treatment (p = 0.04) were found to be independent prognostic factors in R0-resected patients. The recurrence rate was 31.7 % (n = 66) (local, 39.4 %; peritoneal carcinomatosis, 25.7 %; distant metastases, 50 %). Recurrence was predicted by female gender (p = 0.013), ypT-category (p = 0.007), and M-category (p = 0.003) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Response of the primary tumor does not guarantee recurrence-free long-term survival, but histopathological complete responders have better prognosis compared to partial responders. Established prognostic factors strongly influence the outcome, which could, in the future, be used for stratification of adjuvant treatment approaches. Increasing the rate of histopathological complete responders is a valid endpoint for future clinical trials investigating new drugs.

Rates of disease progression according to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy regimen: a collaborative analysis of 12 prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: No large clinical end-point trials have been conducted comparing regimens among human immunodeficiency virus type 1-positive persons starting antiretroviral therapy. We examined clinical progression according to initial regimen in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, which is based on 12 European and North American cohort studies. METHODS: We analyzed progression to death from any cause and to AIDS or death (AIDS/death), comparing efavirenz (EFV), nevirapine (NVP), nelfinavir, idinavir, ritonavir (RTV), RTV-boosted protease inhibitors (PIs), saquinavir, and abacavir. We also compared nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor pairs: zidovudine/lamivudine (AZT/3TC), stavudine (D4T)/3TC, D4T/didanosine (DDI), and others. RESULTS: A total of 17,666 treatment-naive patients, 55,622 person-years at risk, 1,617 new AIDS events, and 895 deaths were analyzed. Compared with EFV, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AIDS/death was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.60) for NVP, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01-1.71) for RTV, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.15-1.81) for RTV-boosted PIs. For death, the adjusted HR for NVP was 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.36). The adjusted HR for death for D4T/3TC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.14-1.59), compared with AZT/3TC. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes may vary across initial regimens. Results are observational and may have been affected by bias due to unmeasured or residual confounding. There is a need for large, randomized, clinical end-point trials.

Late-onset manifestation of antenatal Bartter syndrome as a result of residual function of the mutated renal Na+-K+-2Cl- co-transporter

Genetic defects of the Na+-K+-2Cl- (NKCC2) sodium potassium chloride co-transporter result in severe, prenatal-onset renal salt wasting accompanied by polyhydramnios, prematurity, and life-threatening hypovolemia of the neonate (antenatal Bartter syndrome or hyperprostaglandin E syndrome). Herein are described two brothers who presented with hyperuricemia, mild metabolic alkalosis, low serum potassium levels, and bilateral medullary nephrocalcinosis at the ages of 13 and 15 yr. Impaired function of sodium chloride reabsorption along the thick ascending limb of Henle's loop was deduced from a reduced increase in diuresis and urinary chloride excretion upon application of furosemide. Molecular genetic analysis revealed that the brothers were compound heterozygotes for mutations in the SLC12A1 gene coding for the NKCC2 co-transporter. Functional analysis of the mutated rat NKCC2 protein by tracer-flux assays after heterologous expression in Xenopus oocytes revealed significant residual transport activity of the NKCC2 p.F177Y mutant construct in contrast to no activity of the NKCC2-D918fs frameshift mutant construct. However, coexpression of the two mutants was not significantly different from that of NKCC2-F177Y alone or wild type. Membrane expression of NKCC2-F177Y as determined by luminometric surface quantification was not significantly different from wild-type protein, pointing to an intrinsic partial transport defect caused by the p.F177Y mutation. The partial function of NKCC2-F177Y, which is not negatively affected by NKCC2-D918fs, therefore explains a mild and late-onset phenotype and for the first time establishes a mild phenotype-associated SLC12A1 gene mutation.

Model Checking for ROC Regression Analysis

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a prominent tool for characterizing the accuracy of continuous diagnostic test. To account for factors that might invluence the test accuracy, various ROC regression methods have been proposed. However, as in any regression analysis, when the assumed models do not fit the data well, these methods may render invalid and misleading results. To date practical model checking techniques suitable for validating existing ROC regression models are not yet available. In this paper, we develop cumulative residual based procedures to graphically and numerically assess the goodness-of-fit for some commonly used ROC regression models, and show how specific components of these models can be examined within this framework. We derive asymptotic null distributions for the residual process and discuss resampling procedures to approximate these distributions in practice. We illustrate our methods with a dataset from the Cystic Fibrosis registry.

Influence of residual pockets on progression of periodontitis and tooth loss: results after 11 years of maintenance

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the significance of residual probing pocket depth (PPD) as a predictive parameter for periodontal disease progression and tooth loss. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of residual PPD >or=5 mm and bleeding on probing (BOP) after active periodontal therapy (APT) on the progression of periodontitis and tooth loss. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort, 172 patients were examined after APT and supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) for 3-27 years (mean 11.3 years). Analyses were conducted using information at site, tooth and patient levels. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and progression of periodontitis was investigated using multilevel logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The number of residual PPD increased during SPT. Compared with PPDor=7 mm 37.9 and 64.2, respectively. At patient level, heavy smoking, initial diagnosis, duration of SPT and PPD>or=6 mm were risk factors for disease progression, while PPD>or=6 mm and BOP>or=30% represented a risk for tooth loss. CONCLUSION: Residual PPD>or=6 mm represent an incomplete periodontal treatment outcome and require further therapy.

Residual oculomotor and exploratory deficits in patients with recovered hemineglect

Several studies on hemineglect have reported that patients recover remarkably well when assessed with neuropsychological screening tests, however, they show deficits on novel or complex tasks. We investigated whether such deficits can be revealed with eye movement analysis, applying two basic oculomotor tasks as well as two exploratory tasks. Eye movements were recorded in eight hemineglect patients at least eleven months after right-hemisphere brain damage had occurred. Sixteen healthy volunteers participated in the control group. Regarding the basic oculomotor tasks, only the overlap task revealed residual deficits in patients, suggesting that a directional deficit in disengaging attention persisted during recovery. Further residual deficits were evident in the exploratory tasks. When everyday scenes were explored, patients showed a bias in early orienting towards the ipsilateral hemispace. In a search task, they demonstrated the same orienting bias as well as a non-directional deficit concerning search times. Moreover, patients preferentially fixated in the contralateral hemispace, but did not benefit from this asymmetry in terms of search times, i.e. they did not detect contralateral targets faster than ipsilateral ones. This suggests a dissociation between oculomotor processes and attentional ones. In conclusion, we have identified behavioural aspects that seem to recover slower than others. A disengagement deficit and biases in early orienting have been the most pronounced residual oculomotor deficits.