Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

The impact of maternal control on children’s anxious cognitions, behaviours and affect: an experimental study

Controlling parenting is associated with child anxiety however the direction of effects remains unclear. The present study implemented a Latin-square experimental design to assess the impact of parental control on children’s anxious affect, cognitions and behaviour. A non-clinical sample of 24 mothers of children aged 4-5 years were trained to engage in (a) controlling and (b) autonomy-granting behaviours in interaction with their child during the preparation of a speech. When mothers engaged in controlling parenting behaviours, children made more negative predictions about their performance prior to delivering their speech and reported feeling less happy about the task, and this was moderated by child trait anxiety. In addition, children with higher trait anxiety displayed a significant increase in observed child anxiety in the controlling condition. The pattern of results was maintained when differences in mothers’ levels of negativity and habitual levels of control were accounted for. These findings are consistent with theories that suggest that controlling parenting is a risk factor in the development of childhood anxiety.

Neurofuzzy design and model construction of nonlinear dynamical processes from data

A common problem in many data based modelling algorithms such as associative memory networks is the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, a new two-stage neurofuzzy system design and construction algorithm (NeuDeC) for nonlinear dynamical processes is introduced to effectively tackle this problem. A new simple preprocessing method is initially derived and applied to reduce the rule base, followed by a fine model detection process based on the reduced rule set by using forward orthogonal least squares model structure detection. In both stages, new A-optimality experimental design-based criteria we used. In the preprocessing stage, a lower bound of the A-optimality design criterion is derived and applied as a subset selection metric, but in the later stage, the A-optimality design criterion is incorporated into a new composite cost function that minimises model prediction error as well as penalises the model parameter variance. The utilisation of NeuDeC leads to unbiased model parameters with low parameter variance and the additional benefit of a parsimonious model structure. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach for high dimensional inputs.

An experimental manipulation of responsibility in children: a test of the inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder

The objective of this study was to investigate whether Salkovskis (1985) inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) applied to children. In an experimental design, 81 children aged 9– 12 years were randomly allocated to three conditions: an inflated responsibility group, a moderate responsibility group, and a reduced responsibility group. In all groups children were asked to sort sweets according to whether or not they contained nuts. At baseline the groups did not differ on children’s self reported anxiety, depression, obsessive-compulsive symptoms or on inflated responsibility beliefs. The experimental manipulation successfully changed children’s perceptions of responsibility. During the sorting task time taken to complete the task, checking behaviours, hesitations, and anxiety were recorded. There was a significant effect of responsibility level on the behavioural variables of time taken, hesitations and check; as perceived responsibility increased children took longer to complete the task and checked and hesitated more often. There was no between-group difference in children’s self reported state anxiety. The results offer preliminary support for the link between inflated responsibility and increased checking behaviours in children and add to the small but growing literature suggesting that cognitive models of OCD may apply to children.

Os efeitos das reclamações online na lealdade dos consumidores: um estudo experimental

In an environment of constant change, technological developments, market competition and more informed consumers, the search for a lasting relationship through the conquest of loyalty has become the objective of companies. However, several authors suggest that this loyalty can be affected by negative comments available on the internet. Therefore, this dissertation has as objective to examine if the complaints are available on the internet impact the loyalty to a brand of mobile phone. The research used as the basis the Expanded NCSB model suggest by Johnson et al. (2001), studying five prominent drives of loyalty: image/brand reputation, affective commitment, calculative commitment, perceived value and trust, beyond the satisfaction construct as moderator variable. The research method adopted was the experimental design which included 285 undergraduate students, with the trial which included 285 undergraduate students, with the field study of the mobile industry, specifically, the brands of cell phones. The research approach was quantitative and methods were descriptive statistics, factor analysis, cluster analysis, linear regression and non-parametric test of Wilcoxon for data analysis. Of the 16 hypothesis stemmed from the research model proposed, 12 were confirmed. The results showed that the complaint available on the internet, here represented by the available on the site Reclame Aqui, may impact consumer perceptions about brand loyalty, as well as its antecedents, being that these complaints can affect all the consumers, regardless of historical satisfaction with the brand. It also noted the positive relationship between the independent variables trust, image/brand reputation, perceived value, affective commitment and calculative commitment and the dependent variable - loyalty, even when considering the data obtained after exposure to the complaint. However, no unanimous conclusion that the relationship between these variables was strongest in the group with satisfactory experience. At the first moment of the research, the trust was the most important variable for the formation of loyalty. However, after exposure to treatment, the image/brand reputation, was more relevant. Contributions of the study, limitations and recommendations for future researches are approached in the present investigation

Encapsulation of Local Anesthetic Bupivacaine in Biodegradable Poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) Nanospheres: Factorial Design, Characterization and Cytotoxicity Studies

Local anesthetic agents cause temporary blockade of nerve impulses productiong insensitivity to painful stimuli in the area supplied by that nerve. Bupivacaine (BVC) is an amide-type local anesthetic widely used in surgery and obstetrics for sustained peripheral and central nerve blockade. in this study, we prepared and characterized nanosphere formulations containing BVC. To achieve these goals, BVC loaded poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) nanospheres (NS) were prepared by nanopreciptation and characterized with regard to size distribution, drug loading and cytotoxicity assays. The 2(3-1) factorial experimental design was used to study the influence of three different independent variables on nanoparticle drug loading. BVC was assayed by HPLC, the particle size and zeta potential were determined by dynamic light scattering. BVC was determined using a combined ultrafiltration-centrifugation technique. The results of optimized formulations showed a narrow size distribution with a polydispersivity of 0.05%, an average diameter of 236.7 +/- 2.6 nm and the zeta potential -2.93 +/- 1,10 mV. In toxicity studies with fibroblast 3T3 cells, BVC loaded-PLGA-NS increased cell viability, in comparison with the effect produced by free BVC. In this way, BVC-loaded PLGA-NS decreased BVC toxicity. The development of BVC formulations in carriers such as nanospheres could offer the possibility of controlling drug delivery in biological systems, prolonging the anesthetic effect and reducing toxicity.

Interações comunicativas entre uma professora e um aluno com transtorno invasivo do desenvolvimento na escola regular

Inclusion of students with autism in regular education settings is a topic that has not been much explored by the national scientific literature. This matter is complex and, due to the extent of various aspects involved, it is essential to delimitate a focus of investigation. The direction taken by this study was to evaluate the effects of an intervention program in the communicative interactions between a student with autism and his teacher in a regular classroom. Data were collected in an elementary private school, located in the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte during the 2010 academic school year. The study included a teacher and a non-vocal, 10-year-old student diagnosed with autism. A quasi-experimental A-B research design was employed. During the intervention program the teacher was trained to use Naturalistic Teaching Strategies and Alternative and Augmentative Communication (AAC) resources to increase the frequency of interactions with the student during three classroom routines (entry time, snack and pedagogical activity). The results indicated qualitative and quantitative changes in the interactions of the dyad after the implementation of the intervention program. The student began to use pictograms to communicate with the teacher in two of the three routines investigated. The frequency of AAC use was also observed in the teacher‟s repertoire, especially when the student failed to understand gestures and words. The teacher positively evaluated the intervention program

Efeitos de um programa de intervenção precoce baseado no modelo mais que palavras - HANEN, para crianças menores de três anos com risco de autismo

In the last decades, studies on early intervention involving children with autism have suggested that there is no single intervention model capable of addressing the needs of all individuals in the spectrum. The role of parents as active intervention agents is, however, highly recommended. The More Than Words-HANEN Program has been specifically created for parents of children, under five years of age, who are in the autism spectrum. This intervention aims at improving the social competence and language comprehension of the child, as well as their parents empowerment. Until now only three studies have been performed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the HMTW program. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the effects of an early intervention program inspired on HMTW model on the level of caregiver responsiveness and child communication skills. The present study adds to the existing research literature on family-centered early intervention that uses a developmental paradigm. A two year boy in risk for autism, his mother and nanny took part in this investigation, which was carried out in the child´s home in Mossoró, Rio Grande do Norte. The caretakers were given one fifty-two hours of training, divided into thirteen weekly meetings. A quasi-experimental A-B-C design (baselineintervention- follow-up) showed improvement in the caretakers level of responsiveness and meaningful social-communicative gains in the child´s response

Estudo da secagem do feijão verde (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp) - análise experimental do processo combinado leito fixo/leito de jorro

Green bean is considered as one of most traditional Brazilian Northeast dishes. Green beans drying preliminary experiments show that combine processes, fixed-bed/spouted bed, resulted in dehydrated beans with uniform humidity and the recovery of the beans properties after their rehydration. From this assays was defined an initial humidity suited for the spouted bed process. A fixed-bed pre-drying process until a level of 40% humidity gave the best results. The spouted bed characteristic hydrodynamic curves were presented for different beans loads, where changes in the respective beans physical properties were evidenced during the fluidynamic assay, due simultaneous drying process. One 22 factorial experimental design was carried out with three repetition in the central point, considering as entry variables: drying air velocity and temperature. The response variables were the beans brakeage, water fraction evaporated during 20 and 50 minutes of drying and the humidity ratio. They are presented still the modeling of the drying of the green beans in fine layer in the drier of tray and the modeling of the shrinking of the beans of the drying processes fixed-bed and spouted bed

Comparação entre planejamento estatístico experimental e análise dimensional em operações de mistura e separação para sistema óleo-água

This work aims to determine a better methodology to help predicting some operational parameters to a new design of mixer-settler on treating wastewater produced by petroleum industry, called MDIF (Misturador-Decantador à Inversão de Fases/ Mixer-Settler based on Phase Inversion MSPI). The data from this research were obtained from the wastewater treatment unit, called MSPI-TU, installed on a wastewater treatment plant (WTP) of PETROBRAS/UO-RNCE. The importance in determining the better methodology to predict the results of separation and extraction efficiency of the equipment, contributes significantly to determine the optimum operating variables for the control of the unit. The study was based on a comparison among the experimental efficiency (E) obtained by operating MSPI-TU, the efficiency obtained by experimental design equation (Eplan) from the software Statistica Experimental Design® (version 7.0), and the other obtained from a modeling equation based on a dimensional analysis (Ecalc). The results shows that the experimental design equation gives a good prediction of the unit efficiencies with better data reliability, regarding to the condition before a run operation. The average deviation between the proposed by statistic planning model equation and experimental data was 0.13%. On the other hand, the efficiency calculated by the equation which represents the dimensional analysis, may result on important relative deviations (up 70%). Thus, the experimental design is confirmed as a reliable tool, with regard the experimental data processing of the MSPI-TU

Efeitos do treino em esteira com suporte parcial de peso e do método de facilitação neuromuscular proprioceptiva na marcha hemiparética: estudo comparativo

Objective: To compare the effects of the treadmill training with partial body-weight support (TPBWS) and Proprioceptive Neuromuscular Facilitation (PNF) method on gait of subjects with chronic stroke. Design: Quasi-experimental study. Setting: Laboratorial research. Participants: Twenty-three subjects (13 men and 10 women), with a mean age of 56,7 ± 8,0 years and a mean time since the onset of the stroke of 27,7 ± 20,3 months, and able to walk with personal assistance or assistive devices. Interventions: Two experimental groups underwent gait training based on PNF method (PNF group, n=11) or using the TPBWS - Gait Trainer System 2, Biodex, USA (TPBWS group, n=12), for three weekly sessions, during four weeks. Measures: Evaluation of motor function - using the Stroke Rehabilitation Assessment of Movement (STREAM) and the motor subscale of the Functional Independence Measure (motor FIM) -, and kinematic gait analyze with the Qualisys System (Qualisys Medical AB, Gothenburg, Sweden) were carried out before and after the interventions. Results: Increases in the STREAM scores (F=49.189, P<0.001) and in motor FIM scores (F=7.093, P=0.016), as well as improvement in symmetry ratio (F=7.729, P=0.012) were observed for both groups. Speed, stride length and double-support time showed no change after training. Differences between groups were observed only for the maximum ankle dorsiflexion over the swing phase (F=6.046, P=0.024), which showed an increase for the PNF group. Other angular parameters remain unchanged. Conclusion: Improvement in motor function and in gait symmetry was observed for both groups, suggesting similarity of interventions. The cost-effectiveness of each treatment should be considered for your choice

Comparison of the univariate and multivariate methods in the optimization of experimental conditions for determining Cu, Pb, Ni and Cd in biodiesel by GFAAS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Benzocaine loaded biodegradable poly-(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) nanocapsules: factorial design and characterization

Local anesthetics are able to induce pain relief since they bind to the sodium channel of excitable membranes, blocking the influx of sodium ions and the propagation of the nervous impulse. Benzocaine (BZC) is a local anesthetic that presents limited application in topical formulations due to its low water-solubility. This study aimed to develop polymeric nanocapsules as a drug delivery system for the local anesthetic benzocaine (BZC). To do so, BZC loaded poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) nanocapsules were prepared using the nanoprecipitation method and were characterized. The factorial experimental design was used to study the influence of four different independent variables oil response to nanocapsules drug loading. The physical characteristics of PLGA nanocapsules were evaluated by analyzing the particle size, the polydispersion index and the zeta potential, using a particle size analyzer. The results of the optimized formulation showed a size distribution with a polydispersity index of 0.12. an average diameter of 123 nm, zeta potential of -33.6 mV and a drug loading of more than 69%. The release profiles showed a significant difference in the release behavior for the pure drug in solution when compared with that containing benzocaine loaded PLGA nanocapsules. Thus, the prepared nonocapsules described here may be of clinical importance in both the processes of stabilization and delivery of benzocaine for pain treatment. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinantes da evolução do peso e altura em crianças de 3 meses a 6 anos assistidas em creche: Análise por modelo linear não hierarquizado em ensaio quase-experimental

Objective. To assess factors determining growth in a group of children between 3 months and 6 years old enrolled in a public municipal (i.e., government-supported, not private) day-care center, in comparison to a group of children with similar characteristics but who were not enrolled in the center. Methods. A quasi-experimental study was designed to observe 444 children aged 3 to 72 months from a low-income neighborhood in the city of Sorocaba, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Two groups were studied: 164 children enrolled in a local municipal day-care center (intervention group) and 280 not receiving care at the center (nonintervention, comparison group) but instead being cared for at home. Both groups were seen four times over a period of 16 months. At each observation session, the children's weight and height were measured. Information was also collected on the mother's sociodemographic characteristics and the illnesses she had suffered as well as the child's weight and other health characteristics at birth, the child's illnesses in the 15 days before each observation, and any hospitalizations. Results. The children in both groups were from low-income families, with 65% of the families having an average monthly income below US$ 100; 80% of the mothers had received 8 years of schooling or less. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that at the first observation (just before enrollment in the day-care center), birth weight was the only factor that explained the nutritional differences between the two groups. Subsequent analyses showed that being in day care was the factor that best explained the differences between the groups, especially in terms of the adequacy of weight for age, after controlling for birthweight, sex, age at the beginning of the study, and illnesses in the 15 days before an observation session. The nutritional impact of the intervention was significant as early as 3 months after being enrolled in day care. Conclusions. The nutritional benefits of the care provided at the center outweighed the negative effects sometimes seen in such centers, such as the greater morbidity that children in day-care centers often experience in comparison to children receiving care at home.

Intervenção educativa de prevenção primária ao tabagismo em escola pública

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC