The psychology of containment : mis/representing emotional and behavioural difficulties in Australian schools

The number of students in special schools has increased at a rapid rate in some Australian states, due in part to increased enrolment under the categories of emotional disturbance (ED) and behaviour disorder (BD). Nonetheless, diagnostic distinctions between ED and BD are unclear. Moreover, despite international findings that students with particular backgrounds are over-represented in special schools, little is known about the backgrounds of students entering such settings in Australia. This study examined the government school enrolment data from New South Wales, the most populous of the Australian states. Linear and quadratic trends were used to describe the numbers and ages of students enrolled in special schools in the ED and BD categories. Changes between 1997 and 2007 were observed. Results showed an over-representation of boys that increased across the decade and a different pattern across age for boys and girls. Consistent with international findings, these results indicate that trends in special school placements are unrelated to disability prevalence in the population. Rather, it is suggested that schools act to preserve time and resources for others by removing their more challenging students: most typically, boys.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

Degradation of hydroxycinnamic acid mixtures in aqueous sucrose solutions by the Fenton process

The degradation efficiencies and behaviors of caffeic acid (CaA), p-coumaric acid (pCoA) and ferulic acid (FeA) in aqueous sucrose solutions containing the mixture of these hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs) mixtures were studied by the Fenton oxidation process. Central composite design and multi-response surface methodology were used to evaluate and optimize the interactive effects of process parameters. Four quadratic polynomial models were developed for the degradation of each individual acid in the mixture and the total HCAs degraded. Sucrose was the most influential parameter that significantly affected the total amount of HCA degraded. Under the conditions studied there was < 0.01% loss of sucrose in all reactions. The optimal values of the process parameters for a 200 mg/L HCA mixture in water (pH 4.73, 25.15 °C) and sucrose solution (13 mass%, pH 5.39, 35.98 °C) were 77% and 57% respectively. Regression analysis showed goodness of fit between the experimental results and the predicted values. The degradation behavior of CaA differed from those of pCoA and FeA, where further CaA degradation is observed at increasing sucrose and decreasing solution pH. The differences (established using UV/Vis and ATR-FTIR spectroscopy) were because, unlike the other acids, CaA formed a complex with Fe(III) or with Fe(III) hydrogen-bonded to sucrose, and coprecipitated with lepidocrocite, an iron oxyhydroxide.

Efficient minimax strategies for square loss games

We consider online prediction problems where the loss between the prediction and the outcome is measured by the squared Euclidean distance and its generalization, the squared Mahalanobis distance. We derive the minimax solutions for the case where the prediction and action spaces are the simplex (this setup is sometimes called the Brier game) and the \ell_2 ball (this setup is related to Gaussian density estimation). We show that in both cases the value of each sub-game is a quadratic function of a simple statistic of the state, with coefficients that can be efficiently computed using an explicit recurrence relation. The resulting deterministic minimax strategy and randomized maximin strategy are linear functions of the statistic.

A modified Density-Based Scanning Algorithm with Noise for spatial travel pattern analysis from Smart Card AFC data

Smart Card Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data has been extensively exploited to understand passenger behavior, passenger segment, trip purpose and improve transit planning through spatial travel pattern analysis. The literature has been evolving from simple to more sophisticated methods such as from aggregated to individual travel pattern analysis, and from stop-to-stop to flexible stop aggregation. However, the issue of high computing complexity has limited these methods in practical applications. This paper proposes a new algorithm named Weighted Stop Density Based Scanning Algorithm with Noise (WS-DBSCAN) based on the classical Density Based Scanning Algorithm with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to detect and update the daily changes in travel pattern. WS-DBSCAN converts the classical quadratic computation complexity DBSCAN to a problem of sub-quadratic complexity. The numerical experiment using the real AFC data in South East Queensland, Australia shows that the algorithm costs only 0.45% in computation time compared to the classical DBSCAN, but provides the same clustering results.

Multi-rotor with suspended load: System dynamics and control toolbox

There is an increasing demand for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to carry suspended loads as this can provide significant benefits to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction. The load impact on the underlying system dynamics should not be neglected as significant feedback forces may be induced on the vehicle during certain flight manoeuvres. The constant variation in operating point induced by the slung load also causes conventional controllers to demand increased control effort. Much research has focused on standard multi-rotor position and attitude control with and without a slung load. However, predictive control schemes, such as Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), have not yet been fully explored. To this end, we present a novel controller for safe and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung load in three dimensions. The paper describes a System Dynamics and Control Simulation Toolbox for use with MATLAB/SIMULINK which includes a detailed simulation of the multi-rotor and slung load as well as a predictive controller to manage the nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. It is demonstrated that the controller simultaneously tracks specified waypoints and actively damps large slung load oscillations. A linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) is derived and control performance is compared. Results show the improved performance of the predictive controller for a larger flight envelope, including aggressive manoeuvres and large slung load displacements. The computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementations.

In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

A robust optimization approach for index tracking problem

Index tracking is an investment approach where the primary objective is to keep portfolio return as close as possible to a target index without purchasing all index components. The main purpose is to minimize the tracking error between the returns of the selected portfolio and a benchmark. In this paper, quadratic as well as linear models are presented for minimizing the tracking error. The uncertainty is considered in the input data using a tractable robust framework that controls the level of conservatism while maintaining linearity. The linearity of the proposed robust optimization models allows a simple implementation of an ordinary optimization software package to find the optimal robust solution. The proposed model of this paper employs Morgan Stanley Capital International Index as the target index and the results are reported for six national indices including Japan, the USA, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and France. The performance of the proposed models is evaluated using several financial criteria e.g. information ratio, market ratio, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The preliminary results demonstrate that the proposed model lowers the amount of tracking error while raising values of portfolio performance measures.

Assessing acculturation over time: A four-year prospective study of Asian American young adults

Acculturation is commonly defined as a dynamic and multidimensional process in which individuals and groups change over time when coming into contact with another culture. Despite the emphasis on acculturation as a process of change over time, few researchers have directly assessed this hypothesis. The current study first identifies and then examines "stable" and "dynamic" dimensions of acculturation within a 4-year prospective study of 433 first- and second-generation Chinese- and Korean-American college students. Separate growth model analyses revealed significant linear change for first-generation students toward greater U.S. acculturation. In comparison, tests of linear and quadratic change for second-generation students were not significant. When stratifying by gender, acculturation increased for women but there was no significant change in acculturation for men. While all students reported increases in alcohol consumption over the study period, changes in acculturation predicted changes in alcohol consumption only for women. Chinese men showed greater increases in alcohol consumption than Korean men but there was no effect for ethnicity among women. There was significant individual variability in the models, which underscores the importance of examining change prospectively through within and between person analyses. The findings highlight the importance of examining acculturation changes over time for different migrant groups with implications for further development of acculturation measures, research methodologies, and health interventions. More prospective research designs of acculturation are needed to examine changes in health behavior and overall adaptation across migrant groups at varying stages of development.

Tracking adversarial targets

We study linear control problems with quadratic losses and adversarially chosen tracking targets. We present an efficient algorithm for this problem and show that, under standard conditions on the linear system, its regret with respect to an optimal linear policy grows as O(log^2 T), where T is the number of rounds of the game. We also study a problem with adversarially chosen transition dynamics; we present an exponentiallyweighted average algorithm for this problem, and we give regret bounds that grow as O(sqtr p T).

Model selection with misspecified spatial covariance structure

Spatial data analysis has become more and more important in the studies of ecology and economics during the last decade. One focus of spatial data analysis is how to select predictors, variance functions and correlation functions. However, in general, the true covariance function is unknown and the working covariance structure is often misspecified. In this paper, our target is to find a good strategy to identify the best model from the candidate set using model selection criteria. This paper is to evaluate the ability of some information criteria (corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and residual information criterion (RIC)) for choosing the optimal model when the working correlation function, the working variance function and the working mean function are correct or misspecified. Simulations are carried out for small to moderate sample sizes. Four candidate covariance functions (exponential, Gaussian, Matern and rational quadratic) are used in simulation studies. With the summary in simulation results, we find that the misspecified working correlation structure can still capture some spatial correlation information in model fitting. When the sample size is large enough, BIC and RIC perform well even if the the working covariance is misspecified. Moreover, the performance of these information criteria is related to the average level of model fitting which can be indicated by the average adjusted R square ( [GRAPHICS] ), and overall RIC performs well.

Paraxial-wave optics and relativistic front description .1. The scalar theory

With the extension of the work of the preceding paper, the relativistic front form for Maxwell's equations for electromagnetism is developed and shown to be particularly suited to the description of paraxial waves. The generators of the Poincaré group in a form applicable directly to the electric and magnetic field vectors are derived. It is shown that the effect of a thin lens on a paraxial electromagnetic wave is given by a six-dimensional transformation matrix, constructed out of certain special generators of the Poincaré group. The method of construction guarantees that the free propagation of such waves as well as their transmission through ideal optical systems can be described in terms of the metaplectic group, exactly as found for scalar waves by Bacry and Cadilhac. An alternative formulation in terms of a vector potential is also constructed. It is chosen in a gauge suggested by the front form and by the requirement that the lens transformation matrix act locally in space. Pencils of light with accompanying polarization are defined for statistical states in terms of the two-point correlation function of the vector potential. Their propagation and transmission through lenses are briefly considered in the paraxial limit. This paper extends Fourier optics and completes it by formulating it for the Maxwell field. We stress that the derivations depend explicitly on the "henochromatic" idealization as well as the identification of the ideal lens with a quadratic phase shift and are heuristic to this extent.

Two-dimensional phase transitions at electrochemical interfaces

A two-state Ising model has been applied to the two-dimensional condensation of tymine at the mercury-water interface. The model predicts a quadratic dependence of the transition potential on temperature and on the logarithm of the adsorbate concentration. Both predictions have been confirmed experimentally.

Some Methods for Summarizing Survivorship Data in Nonstandard Situations

One difficulty in summarising biological survivorship data is that the hazard rates are often neither constant nor increasing with time or decreasing with time in the entire life span. The promising Weibull model does not work here. The paper demonstrates how bath tub shaped quadratic models may be used in such a case. Further, sometimes due to a paucity of data actual lifetimes are not as certainable. It is shown how a concept from queuing theory namely first in first out (FIFO) can be profitably used here. Another nonstandard situation considered is one in which lifespan of the individual entity is too long compared to duration of the experiment. This situation is dealt with, by using ancilliary information. In each case the methodology is illustrated with numerical examples.