Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

Integrated approach to healthcare quality management:a case study

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to develop an integrated quality management model, which identifies problems, suggests solutions, develops a framework for implementation and helps evaluate performance of health care services dynamically. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses logical framework analysis (LFA), a matrix approach to project planning for managing quality. This has been applied to three acute healthcare services (Operating room utilization, Accident and emergency, and Intensive care) in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Findings - The paper finds that LFA is an effective method of quality management of hospital-based healthcare services. Research limitations/implications - This paper shows LFA application in three service processes in one hospital. However, ideally this is required to be tested in several hospitals and other services as well. Practical implications - In the paper the proposed model can be practised in hospital-based healthcare services for improving performance. Originality/value - The paper shows that quality improvement in healthcare services is a complex and multi-dimensional task. Although various quality management tools are routinely deployed for identifying quality issues in health care delivery and corrective measures are taken for superior performance, there is an absence of an integrated approach, which can identify and analyze issues, provide solutions to resolve those issues, develop a project management framework (planning, monitoring, and evaluating) to implement those solutions in order to improve process performance. This study introduces an integrated and uniform quality management tool. It integrates operations with organizational strategies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

The use of computing technology in highway construction contractor companies as a Total Jobsite Management Tool (TJMT)

The integration of automation (specifically Global Positioning Systems (GPS)) and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) through the creation of a Total Jobsite Management Tool (TJMT) in construction contractor companies can revolutionize the way contractors do business. The key to this integration is the collection and processing of real-time GPS data that is produced on the jobsite for use in project management applications. This research study established the need for an effective planning and implementation framework to assist construction contractor companies in navigating the terrain of GPS and ICT use. An Implementation Framework was developed using the Action Research approach. The framework consists of three components, as follows: (i) ICT Infrastructure Model, (ii) Organizational Restructuring Model, and (iii) Cost/Benefit Analysis. The conceptual ICT infrastructure model was developed for the purpose of showing decision makers within highway construction companies how to collect, process, and use GPS data for project management applications. The organizational restructuring model was developed to assist companies in the analysis and redesign of business processes, data flows, core job responsibilities, and their organizational structure in order to obtain the maximum benefit at the least cost in implementing GPS as a TJMT. A cost-benefit analysis which identifies and quantifies the cost and benefits (both direct and indirect) was performed in the study to clearly demonstrate the advantages of using GPS as a TJMT. Finally, the study revealed that in order to successfully implement a program to utilize GPS data as a TJMT, it is important for construction companies to understand the various implementation and transitioning issues that arise when implementing this new technology and business strategy. In the study, Factors for Success were identified and ranked to allow a construction company to understand the factors that may contribute to or detract from the prospect for success during implementation. The Implementation Framework developed as a result of this study will serve to guide highway construction companies in the successful integration of GPS and ICT technologies for use as a TJMT.

Does management capacity increase organizational performance? An empirical analysis of public housing agencies

Since the 1990s, scholars have paid special attention to public management’s role in theory and research under the assumption that effective management is one of the primary means for achieving superior performance. To some extent, this was influenced by popular business writings of the 1980s as well as the reinventing literature of the 1990s. A number of case studies but limited quantitative research papers have been published showing that management matters in the performance of public organizations. ^ My study examined whether or not management capacity increased organizational performance using quantitative techniques. The specific research problem analyzed was whether significant differences existed between high and average performing public housing agencies on select criteria identified in the Government Performance Project (GPP) management capacity model, and whether this model could predict outcome performance measures in a statistically significant manner, while controlling for exogenous influences. My model included two of four GPP management subsystems (human resources and information technology), integration and alignment of subsystems, and an overall managing for results framework. It also included environmental and client control variables that were hypothesized to affect performance independent of management action. ^ Descriptive results of survey responses showed high performing agencies with better scores on most high performance dimensions of individual criteria, suggesting support for the model; however, quantitative analysis found limited statistically significant differences between high and average performers and limited predictive power of the model. My analysis led to the following major conclusions: past performance was the strongest predictor of present performance; high unionization hurt performance; and budget related criterion mattered more for high performance than other model factors. As to the specific research question, management capacity may be necessary but it is not sufficient to increase performance. ^ The research suggested managers may benefit by implementing best practices identified through the GPP model. The usefulness of the model could be improved by adding direct service delivery to the model, which may also improve its predictive power. Finally, there are abundant tested concepts and tools designed to improve system performance that are available for practitioners designed to improve management subsystem support of direct service delivery.^

The Use of Conceptual Business Model in Managing Information Technology Projects

The business model of an organization is an important strategic tool for its success, and should therefore be understood by business professionals and information technology professionals. By this context and considering the importance of information technology in contemporary business models, this article aims to verify the use of the business model components in the information technology (IT) projects management process in enterprises. To achieve this goal, this exploratory research has investigated the use of the Business Model concept in the information technology projects management, by a survey applied to 327 professionals from February to April 2012. It was observed that the business model concept, as well as its practices or its blocks, are not so well explored in its whole potential, possibly because it is relatively new. One of the benefits of this conceptual tool is to provide an understanding in terms of the core business for different areas, enabling a higher level of knowledge in terms of the essential activities of the enterprise IT professionals and the business area.

Using AHP and the IPMA Competence Baseline in the project managers selection process

This paper proposes the joint use of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the ICB (IPMA Competence Baseline), as a tool for the decision-making process of selecting the most suitable managers for projects. A hierarchical structure, comprising the IPMA’s ICB 3.0 contextual, behavioural and technical competence elements, is constructed for the selection of project managers. It also describes the AHP implementation, illustrating the whole process with an example using all the 46 ICB competence elements as model criteria. This tool can be of high interest to decision-makers because it allows comparing the candidates for managing a project using a systematic and rigorous process with a rich set of proven criteria.

Continuous Delivery : Utmaningar ett förvaltningsuppdrag kan stå inför vid en övergång till Continuous Delivery

Continuous delivery (CD) is a software engineering approach where the focus lays on creating a short delivery cycle by automating parts of the deployment pipeline which includes build, deploy-, test and release process. CD is based on that during development should be possible to always automatically generate a release based on the source code in its current state. One of CD's many advantages is that through continuous releases it allows you to get a quick feedback loop leading to faster and more efficient implementation of new functions, at the same time fixing errors. Although CD has many advantages, there are also several challenges a maintenance management project must manage in the transition to CD. These challenges may differ depending on the maturity level for a maintenance management project and what strengths and weaknesses the project has. Our research question was: "What challenges can a maintenance management project face in transition to Continuous delivery?" The purpose of this study is to describe Continuous delivery and the challenges a maintenance management project may face during a transition to Continuous delivery. A descriptive case study has been carried out with the data collection methods of interviews and documents. A situation analysis was created based on the collected data in a shape of a process model that represent the maintenance management projects release process. The processmodel was used as the basis of SWOT analysis and analysis by Rehn et al's Maturity Model. From these analyzes we found challenges of a maintenance management project may face in the transition to CD. The challenges are about customers and the management's attitude towards a transition to CD. But the biggest challenge is about automation of the deployment pipeline steps.

Maturidade de escritório de gerenciamento de projetos: o caso do Ministério Público do Rio Grande do Norte

The research aimed to evaluate the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, on the model PMO Maturity Cube. It was based on a theoretical framework that includes project management, project management office and maturity of the project management office. The research was classified as to the purpose as exploratory and descriptive. According to the methods used was a case study, and how to approach is qualitative and quantitative. The research unit was the prosecutor of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, by two guys who represent all of the participants in the project management office of the institution. These subjects were chosen because they act with the office since the foundation of the same, having the knowledge necessary to deepen the research required, and experience with projects and work experience in the area. Data were collected through an adaptation of the evaluation form for the amplitude corporate developed and presented to the scientific environment for Pinto, Cota and Levin (2010). The results revealed that the level of maturity in the current strategic approach is 77%, and 97% desired; tactical approach in current is 66% and 97% desired, and the current operational approach is 78%, and 100% desired. He pointed out that several factors influence the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Prosecutor and the recurrent related to information technology, regarding the storage and sharing of information. Concluded that the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte is advanced

Diseño Oficina de Proyectos (PMO) más adecuada para INVERCONST S.A.S.

El presente documento contiene el diseño de una oficina de proyectos tipo básica para la empresa Inverconst S. A. S., como respuesta a la necesidad que tiene la empresa de articular sus proyectos con la estrategia organizacional, a través de proyectos administrados y gestionados de manera ordenada, con procesos de gestión repetibles y estandarizados, facilitando compartir recursos, metodologías, herramientas y técnicas en pro de proyectos exitosos -- El anterior propósito no implica una oficina de proyectos que deteriore la estructura financiera o la gestión de proyectos actual de la empresa -- Para el diseño de esta PMO fue necesario conocer cómo Inverconst S. A. S. gestiona sus proyectos actualmente, evaluando su nivel de madurez por medio del modelo OPM3® -- Esta información permitió definir y seleccionar el tipo de PMO más conveniente acorde con la situación actual – Así mismo, después de analizar diferentes metodologías en gestión de proyectos se diseñó una PMO que gestionara sus proyectos bajo los lineamientos del Project Management Institute (PMI®)

An examination of the usefulness of single-species biomass models for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries

Nile perch (Lates niloticus), tilapia (Oreochromis spp), dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, silver cyprinid), and haplochromines (Tribe Haplochromini) form the backbone of the commercial fishery on Lake Victoria. These fish stocks account for about 70% of the total catch in the three riparian states Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. The lake fisheries have been poorly managed, in part due to inadequate scientific analysis and management advice. The overall objective of this project was to model the stocks of the commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria with the view of determining reference points and current stock status. The Schaefer biomass model was fitted to available data for each stock (starting in the 1960s or later) in the form of landings, catch per unit effort, acoustic survey indices, and trawl survey indices. In most cases, the Schaefer model did not fit all data components very well, but attempts were made to find the best model for each stock. When the model was fitted to the Nile perch data starting from 1996, the estimated current biomass is 654 kt (95% CI 466–763); below the optimum of 692 kt and current harvest rate is 38% (33–73%), close to the optimum of 35%. At best, these can be used as tentative guidelines for the management of these fisheries. The results indicate that there have been strong multispecies interactions in the lake ecosystem. The findings from our study can be used as a baseline reference for future studies using more complex models, which could take these multispecies interactions into account.

THE FEASIBILITY OF USING WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGY FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF DREDGING PROJECTS

The research investigates the feasibility of using web-based project management systems for dredging. To achieve this objective the research assessed both the positive and negative aspects of using web-based technology for the management of dredging projects. Information gained from literature review and prior investigations of dredging projects revealed that project performance, social, political, technical, and business aspects of the organization were important factors in deciding to use web-based systems for the management of dredging projects. These factors were used to develop the research assumptions. An exploratory case study methodology was used to gather the empirical evidence and perform the analysis. An operational prototype of the system was developed to help evaluate developmental and functional requirements, as well as the influence on performance, and on the organization. The evidence gathered from three case study projects, and from a survey of 31 experts, were used to validate the assumptions. Baselines, representing the assumptions, were created as a reference to assess the responses and qualitative measures. The deviation of the responses was used to evaluate for the analysis. Finally, the conclusions were assessed by validating the assumptions with the evidence, derived from the analysis. The research findings are as follows: 1. The system would help improve project performance. 2. Resistance to implementation may be experienced if the system is implemented. Therefore, resistance to implementation needs to be investigated further and more R&D work is needed in order to advance to the final design and implementation. 3. System may be divided into standalone modules in order to simplify the system and facilitate incremental changes. 4. The QA/QC conceptual approach used by this research needs to be redefined during future R&D to satisfy both owners and contractors. Yin (2009) Case Study Research Design and Methods was used to develop the research approach, design, data collection, and analysis. Markus (1983) Resistance Theory was used during the assumptions definition to predict potential problems to the implementation of web-based project management systems for the dredging industry. Keen (1981) incremental changes and facilitative approach tactics were used as basis to classify solutions, and how to overcome resistance to implementation of the web-based project management system. Davis (1989) Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used to assess the solutions needed to overcome the resistances to the implementation of web-base management systems for dredging projects.