When males are more inclined to stay at home :Insights into the partial migration of a pelagic seabird provided by geolocators and isotopes

Partial migration has never been studied in pelagic seabirds, but investigating old unresolved questions in new contexts can provide useful fresh insights. We used geolocators and stable isotopes to investigate this phenomenon in a migratory pelagic seabird, the Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea). Although most birds migrated to the southern hemisphere, 8.1% of studied birds (N = 172) remained close to the breeding colony (Selvagem Grande, Madeira, Portugal), foraging within the Canary current. Almost all resident birds were males, while age or body size did not predict migratory status. Despite displaying a high repeatability (R = 0.72) in the choice of wintering area, residency was not a fixed strategy and individuals could switch between migrating and staying in the Canary current in different years. The predictions resulting from the “body size” and the “social dominance” hypotheses, in which larger individuals or dominant individuals, respectively, remain closer to the breeding areas, were not supported by our data. Resident males were able to occupy the nesting burrows much earlier than migratory males and arrival time in this species is known to affect the probability of engaging in a reproductive attempt. The selective pressure to arrive early at the colony is therefore the most likely explanation for the maintenance of this partial migration system.

Estimating the demand curve for sustainable use of pesticides from contingent-valuation data

Stated-preference valuation techniques are often used to assess consumers' willingness-to-pay for food items produced in farming systems that adopt a sustainable use of pesticides (SUP). We propose an innovative valuation methodology in which dichotomous-choice contingent valuation is used to estimate the demand curve (price-quantity relationship) for such food items where price means price premium for the SUP output, quantity is the probability of choosing SUP and the conventional food product is kept available in the market at the current market price. This methodology can be used to evaluate market differentiation as a policy option to promote the SUP. The methodology is tested with data from a sample of urban consumers of fruits and vegetables in Portugal. The estimated demand curve is used to define the price level maximizing the total premium revenue for the SUP sector as a whole. This optimal level of the price premium is €77.55 (or 163% of the value of the monthly basket of fruits and vegetables at current prices). Adopting the optimal price premium will decrease the number of consumers of SUP food by 54%. The reduction is even higher for low income consumers (80%) leaving them more exposed to the risks of pesticide use.

The role of perceived housing quality and perceived choice to recovery: An ecological perspective on a housing first program in Lisbon

This study explores, from an ecological perspective, the relationship between perceived housing quality and the perception of choice, and between perceived choice and recovery of 45 Housing First Lisbon participants. For this purpose, we used a quantitative method and applied three instruments that report perceived housing quality, perceived choice and severe mental illness recovery. The findings reveal a significant and positive association between perceived housing quality and perceived choice, and between perceived choice and recovery, with choice being predicted by housing quality and recovery predicted by choice. These results reinforce the scientific evidence regarding the success of housing first models as a consumer choice-driven intervention, addressing pertinent environmental factors that contribute to housing stability. The study demonstrates that recovery processes can be maximized through services that empower their consumers by allowing them to choose and control the priority and order of the support services received.

Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Integrated pest management and the (un)sustainable use of pesticides

Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

“A long-term mortality analysis of subsidized firms in rural areas: an empirical study in the Portuguese Alentejo region”

Studies have demonstrated that public policies to support private firms’ investment have the ability to promote entrepreneurship, but the sustainability of subsidized firms has not often been analysed. This paper aims to examine this dimension specifically through evaluating the mortality of subsidized firms in the long-term. The analysis focuses on a case study of the LEADER+ Programme in the Alentejo region of Portugal. With this purpose, the paper examines the activity status (active or not active) of 154 private, rural, for-profit firms in Alentejo that had received a subsidy to support investment between 2002 and 2008 under the LEADER+ Programme. The methodology is based on binary choice models in order to study the probability of these firms still being active. The explanatory variables used are the following: (1) the characteristics of entrepreneurs and managers’ strategic decisions, (2) firm profile and characteristics, (3) regional economic environment. Data assessment showed that the cumulative mortality rate of firms on 31st December 2013 is over 20 %. Interpretation of the regression model revealed that he probability of firms’ survival increases with higher investment, firm age and regional business concentration, whereas the number of applications made by firms has a negative impact on their survival. So it seems that for subsidized firms the amount of investment is as important as its frequency.

The Selection Process of Applications to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System: Who Gets Financial Support?

Public policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation play a vital role when firms have difficulties in accessing external finance. However, some authors have found evidence of long-term inefficiency in subsidized firms (Bernini and Pelligrini, 2011; Cerqua and Pelligrini, 2014) and ineffectiveness of public funds (Jorge and Suárez, 2011). The aim of the paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process of applications to public financial support for stimulating innovation. Using a binary choice model, we investigate which factors influence the probability of obtaining public support for an innovative investment. The explanatory variables are connected to firm profile, the characteristics of the project and the macroeconomic environment. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation.Incentive System (PIIS) and on the applications managed by the Alentejo Regional Operational Program in the period 2007 – 2013. The results show that the selection process is more focused on the expected impact of the project than on the firm’s past performance. Factors that influence the credit risk and the decision to grant a bank loan do not seem to influence the government evaluator regarding the funding of some projects. Past activities in R&D do not significantly affect the probability of having an application approved under the PIIS, whereas an increase in the number of patents and the number of skilled jobs are both relevant factors. Nevertheless, some evidence of firms’ short-term inefficiency was found, in that receiving public financial support is linked to a smaller increase in productivity compared to non-approved firm applications. At the macroeconomic level, periods with a higher cost of capital in financial markets are linked to a greater probability of getting an application for public support approved, which could be associated with the effectiveness of public support in correcting market failings.

Determinants of European tourism demand in a demographic ageing society

This study identifies the senior European tourists determinants that explained their decisions to go on holidays. The empirical study was conducted among European tourists by applying a logit model. The model intends to explain the determinants related to the decision to go on holidays since the probability of a senior European tourist taking holidays in a country depends on a mix of motives as previous travel experience and demographic characteristics. Policy and theoretical implications are derived for contributing to the discussion between demographic variables and tourism demand choice patterns.

Determinants of European tourism demand in a demographic ageing society

This study identifies the senior European tourists determinants that explained their decisions to go on holidays. The empirical study was conducted among European tourists by applying a logit model. The model intends to explain the determinants related to the decision to go on holidays since the probability of a senior European tourist taking holidays in a country depends on a mix of motives as previous travel experience and demographic characteristics. Policy and theoretical implications are derived for contributing to the discussion between demographic variables and tourism demand choice patterns.

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Optimal allocation of a cross-connection and sectionalizers in distribution systems

In this paper, the placement of sectionalizers, as well as, a cross-connection is optimally determined so that the objective function is minimized. The objective function employed in this paper consists of two main parts, the switch cost and the reliability cost. The switch cost is composed of the cost of sectionalizers and cross-connection and the reliability cost is assumed to be proportional to a reliability index, SAIDI. To optimize the allocation of sectionalizers and cross-connection problem realistically, the cost related to each element is considered as discrete. In consequence of binary variables for the availability of sectionalizers, the problem is extremely discrete. Therefore, the probability of local minimum risk is high and a heuristic-based optimization method is needed. A Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) is employed in this paper to deal with this discrete problem. Finally, a testing distribution system is used to validate the proposed method.

Validation of the Flinders decision : making questionnaire in course decision making by students

The Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (DMQ; Mann, 1982) was designed to measure decision making coping patterns identified by Janis and Mann (1977). The validity of four DMQ Scales (vigilance, defensive avoidance, hypervigilance, and decision self-esteem) were tested as predictors of students' course and career decision making. Students administered the DMQ scales were also measured on independence of choice, satisfaction, and planfulness relating to their university course and on planfulness and options relating to their future employment. Two samples were studied. In study 1, 40 students residing in a university college were the subjects. In Study 2, 42 second-year students who completed the DMQ one year earlier constituted the subjects. Modest but significant correlations were found in both samples between DMQ scores and measures of course and career decision making. The findings lend support to the validity of the DMQ as an instrument for measuring decision making behaviour.

Prognosis of bearing failure based on health state estimation

This paper proposes a new prognosis model based on the technique for health state estimation of machines for accurate assessment of the remnant life. For the evaluation of health stages of machines, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed to obtain the probability of each health state. Two case studies involving bearing failures were used to validate the proposed model. Simulated bearing failure data and experimental data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used to train and test the model. The result obtained is very encouraging and shows that the proposed prognostic model produces promising results and has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.