Explaining the multiparty systems of Western Europe prior to the adoption of proportional representation

The literature has difficulty explaining why the number of parties in majoritarian electoral systems often exceeds the two-party predictions associated with Duverger’s Law. To understand why this is the case, I examine several party systems in Western Europe before the adoption of proportional representation. Drawing from the social cleavage approach, I argue that the emergence of multiparty systems was because of the development of the class cleavage, which provided a base of voters sizeable enough to support third parties. However, in countries where the class cleavage became the largest cleavage, the class divide displaced other cleavages and the number of parties began to converge on two. The results show that the effect of the class cleavage was nonlinear, producing the greatest party system fragmentation in countries where class cleavages were present – but not dominant – and smaller in countries where class cleavages were either dominant or non-existent.

A study of patient attitudes towards fasting prior to intravenous sedation for dental treatment in a dental hospital department

INTRODUCTION: Intravenous sedation is the most commonly used method of sedation for the provision of adult dental care. However, disparity exists in pre-operative fasting times in use for patients throughout the United Kingdom.

AIMS: The aims of the study were to obtain information on the effects of existing extended pre-operative fasting regimens, to canvas patient opinions on the fasting process, and to record their positive and negative experiences associated with it.

METHODS: A prospective cross-sectional descriptive study using survey methodology was conducted of adult patients attending a dental hospital for operative treatment under intravenous sedation. Sixty-four questionnaires were distributed over a four-month period, beginning 2nd October 2007.

RESULTS: The surveyed patient pool consisted of 38 females and 14 males with a mean age of 32.4 years. The response rate achieved was 81.2%. Seventy-one per cent of patients indicated that normally they consumed something for breakfast, the most common items being tea and toast. Fifty-one per cent of patients indicated that they would wish to eat the same as normal prior to their appointment and 59% wished to drink as normal. Only 19% of respondents reported that they did not wish to eat anything, with 8% preferring not to drink anything at all. Seventy-nine per cent of the patients reported that they had experienced at least one adverse symptom after fasting and 42% had experienced two or more such symptoms. In general, those patients with more experience of sedation found fasting less unpleasant than those attending for the first time (P<0.05). In addition, one-quarter of all patients indicated that the fasting process had made them feel more nervous about their sedation appointment.

CONCLUSIONS: The extended fasting regimen prior to intravenous sedation appeared to affect patients' wellbeing, as the majority reported adverse symptoms.

Inference with multinomial data: why to weaken the prior strength

This paper considers inference from multinomial data and addresses the problem of choosing the strength of the Dirichlet prior under a mean-squared error criterion. We compare the Maxi-mum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and the most commonly used Bayesian estimators obtained by assuming a prior Dirichlet distribution with non-informative prior parameters, that is, the parameters of the Dirichlet are equal and altogether sum up to the so called strength of the prior. Under this criterion, MLE becomes more preferable than the Bayesian estimators at the increase of the number of categories k of the multinomial, because non-informative Bayesian estimators induce a region where they are dominant that quickly shrinks with the increase of k. This can be avoided if the strength of the prior is not kept constant but decreased with the number of categories. We argue that the strength should decrease at least k times faster than usual estimators do.

Research in Progress: Medical Research Council United Kingdom Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK)

The UK Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme(RASP-UK) will explore novel biomarker stratificationstrategies in severe asthma to improve clinicalmanagement and accelerate development of newtherapies. Prior asthma mechanistic studies have notstratified on inflammatory phenotype and theunderstanding of pathophysiological mechanisms inasthma without Type 2 cytokine inflammation is limited.RASP-UK will objectively assess adherence tocorticosteroids (CS) and examine a novel compositebiomarker strategy to optimise CS dose; this will alsoaddress what proportion of patients with severe asthmahave persistent symptoms without eosinophilic airwaysinflammation after progressive CS withdrawal. There will be interactive partnership with the pharmaceutical industry to facilitate access to stratified populations for novel therapeutic studies.

Time-dependent electron interference prior to ionization in the hydrogen atom and hydrogen molecular ion

We investigate electron dynamics in the hydrogen atom and the hydrogen molecular ion when exposed to long wavelength laser pulses yet having intensity insufficient to ionize the system. We find that the field is still able to drive the electron, leading to time-dependent interference effects.

Patterns and predictors of help-seeking contacts with health services and general practitioner detection of suicidality prior to suicide: a cohort analysis of suicides occurring over a two-year period

Background: Contact with primary care and psychiatric services prior to suicide may be considerable, presenting
opportunities for intervention. However, there is scant knowledge on the frequency, nature and determinants of
contact.
Method: Retrospective cohort study-an analysis of deaths recorded as suicide by the Northern Ireland Coroner’s
Office linked with data from General Practice patient records over a 2 year period
Results: Eighty-seven per cent of suicides were in contact with General Practice services in the 12 months before
suicide. The frequency of contact with services was considerable, particularly among patients with a common
mental disorder or substance misuse problems. A diagnosis of psychiatric problems was absent in 40 % of suicides.
Excluding suicide attempts, the main predictors of a noted general practitioner concern for patient suicidality are
male gender, frequency of consultations, diagnosis of mental illness and substance misuse.
Conclusions: Despite widespread and frequent contact, a substantial proportion of suicidal people were
undiagnosed and untreated for mental health problems. General Practitioner alertness to suicidality may be too
narrowly focused.

Um drama da crítica: Oscar Wilde, Walter Pater e Matthew Arnold, lidos por Fernando Pessoa

Tese de doutoramento, Estudos da Literatura e da Cultura (Teoria da Literatura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2014

Primum acconensis, deinde Tusculani episcopi : libri duo quorum prior orientalis, sive hierosolymitanae, alter occidentalis alter historiae nomine inscribitur ([Reprod.])

[Historia Hierosolymitana abbreviata (latin). 1597]