907 resultados para Prediction of scholastic success


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Prediction of queue waiting times of jobs submitted to production parallel batch systems is important to provide overall estimates to users and can also help meta-schedulers make scheduling decisions. In this work, we have developed a framework for predicting ranges of queue waiting times for jobs by employing multi-class classification of similar jobs in history. Our hierarchical prediction strategy first predicts the point wait time of a job using dynamic k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method. It then performs a multi-class classification using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) among all the classes of the jobs. The probabilities given by the SVM for the class predicted using k-NN and its neighboring classes are used to provide a set of ranges of predicted wait times with probabilities. We have used these predictions and probabilities in a meta-scheduling strategy that distributes jobs to different queues/sites in a multi-queue/grid environment for minimizing wait times of the jobs. Experiments with different production supercomputer job traces show that our prediction strategies can give correct predictions for about 77-87% of the jobs, and also result in about 12% improved accuracy when compared to the next best existing method. Experiments with our meta-scheduling strategy using different production and synthetic job traces for various system sizes, partitioning schemes and different workloads, show that the meta-scheduling strategy gives much improved performance when compared to existing scheduling policies by reducing the overall average queue waiting times of the jobs by about 47%.

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An energy approach within the framework of thermodynamics is used to model the fatigue process in plain concrete. Fatigue crack growth is an irreversible process associated with an irreversible entropy gain. A closed-form expression for entropy generated during fatigue in terms of energy dissipated is derived using principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. An increase in compliance is considered as a measure of damage accumulated during fatigue. The entropy at final fatigue failure is shown to be independent of loading and geometry and is proposed as a material property. A relationship between energy dissipated and number of cycles of fatigue loading is obtained. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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Numerical simulations were performed of experiments from a cascade of stator blades at three low Reynolds numbers representative of flight conditions. Solutions were assessed by comparing blade surface pressures, velocity and turbulence intensity along blade normals at several stations along the suction surface and in the wake. At Re = 210,000 and 380,000 the laminar boundary layer over the suction surface separates and reattaches with significant turbulence fluctuations. A new 3-equation transition model, the k-k(L)-omega model, was used to simulate this flow. Predicted locations of the separation bubble, and profiles of velocity and turbulence fluctuations on blade-normal lines at various stations along the blade were found to be quite close to measurements. Suction surface pressure distributions were not as close at the lower Re. The solution with the standard k-omega SST model showed significant differences in all quantities. At Re = 640,000 transition occurs earlier and it is a turbulent boundary layer that separates near the trailing edge. The solution with the Reynolds stress model was found to be quite close to the experiment in the separated region also, unlike the k-omega SST solution. Three-dimensional computations were performed at Re = 380,000 and 640,000. In both cases there were no significant differences between the midspan solution from 3D computations and the 2D solutions. However, the 3D solutions exhibited flow features observed in the experiments the nearly 2D structure of the flow over most of the span at 380,000 and the spanwise growth of corner vortices from the endwall at 640,000.

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Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

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Electronically nonadiabatic decomposition pathways of guanidium triazolate are explored theoretically. Nonadiabatically coupled potential energy surfaces are explored at the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level of theory. For better estimation of energies complete active space second order perturbation theories (CASPT2 and CASMP2) are also employed. Density functional theory (DFT) with B3LYP functional and MP2 level of theory are used to explore subsequent ground state decomposition pathways. In comparison with all possible stable decomposition products (such as, N-2, NH3, HNC, HCN, NH2CN and CH3NC), only NH3 (with NH2CN) and N-2 are predicted to be energetically most accessible initial decomposition products. Furthermore, different conical intersections between the S-1 and S-0 surfaces, which are computed at the CASSCF(14,10)/6-31G(d) level of theory, are found to play an essential role in the excited state deactivation process of guanidium triazolate. This is the first report on the electronically nonadiabatic decomposition mechanisms of isolated guanidium triazolate salt. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

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It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.