Mapped distribution of intertidal habitats in Australia between 1999 and 2014, link to data in ArcGIS format (29 MB)

Shorebirds have declined severely across the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Many species rely on intertidal habitats for foraging, yet the distribution and conservation status of these habitats across Australia remain poorly understood. Here, we utilised freely available satellite imagery to produce the first map of intertidal habitats across Australia. We estimated a minimum intertidal area of 9856 km**2, with Queensland and Western Australia supporting the largest areas. Thirty-nine percent of intertidal habitats were protected in Australia, with some primarily within marine protected areas (e.g. Queensland) and others within terrestrial protected areas (e.g. Victoria). In fact, three percent of all intertidal habitats were protected both by both marine and terrestrial protected areas. To achieve conservation targets, protected area boundaries must align more accurately with intertidal habitats. Shorebirds use intertidal areas to forage and supratidal areas to roost, so a coordinated management approach is required to account for movement of birds between terrestrial and marine habitats. Ultimately, shorebird declines are occurring despite high levels of habitat protection in Australia. There is a need for a concerted effort both nationally and internationally to map and understand how intertidal habitats are changing, and how habitat conservation can be implemented more effectively.

Using individual tracking data to validate the predictions of species distribution models

The authors would like to thank the College of Life Sciences of Aberdeen University and Marine Scotland Science which funded CP's PhD project. Skate tagging experiments were undertaken as part of Scottish Government project SP004. We thank Ian Burrett for help in catching the fish and the other fishermen and anglers who returned tags. We thank José Manuel Gonzalez-Irusta for extracting and making available the environmental layers used as environmental covariates in the environmental suitability modelling procedure. We also thank Jason Matthiopoulos for insightful suggestions on habitat utilization metrics as well as Stephen C.F. Palmer, and three anonymous reviewers for useful suggestions to improve the clarity and quality of the manuscript.

Modeling the distribution of crossovers and interference with mice DNA data

Chiasma and crossover are two related biological processes of great importance in the understanding genetic variation. The study of these processes is straightforward in organisms where all products of meiosis are recovered and can be observed. This is not the case in mammals. Our understanding of these processes depends on our ability to model them. In this study I describe the biological processes that underline chiasma and crossover as well as the two main inference problems associated with these processes: i) in mammals we only recover one of the four products of meiosis and, ii) in general, we do not observe where the crossovers actually happen, but we find an interval containing type-2 censored information. NPML estimate was proposed and used in this work and used to compare chromosome length and chromosome expansion through the crosses.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Inferences about Parameters of Trivariate Normal Distribution with Missing Data

Multivariate normal distribution is commonly encountered in any field, a frequent issue is the missing values in practice. The purpose of this research was to estimate the parameters in three-dimensional covariance permutation-symmetric normal distribution with complete data and all possible patterns of incomplete data. In this study, MLE with missing data were derived, and the properties of the MLE as well as the sampling distributions were obtained. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to evaluate the performance of the considered estimators for both cases when ρ was known and unknown. All results indicated that, compared to estimators in the case of omitting observations with missing data, the estimators derived in this article led to better performance. Furthermore, when ρ was unknown, using the estimate of ρ would lead to the same conclusion.

A NEW DC UPS FOR DC POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM IN DATA CENTER

In recent years, the 380V DC and 48V DC distribution systems have been extensively studied for the latest data centers. It is widely believed that the 380V DC system is a very promising candidate because of its lower cable cost compared to the 48V DC system. However, previous studies have not adequately addressed the low reliability issue with the 380V DC systems due to large amount of series connected batteries. In this thesis, a quantitative comparison for the two systems has been presented in terms of efficiency, reliability and cost. A new multi-port DC UPS with both high voltage output and low voltage output is proposed. When utility ac is available, it delivers power to the load through its high voltage output and charges the battery through its low voltage output. When utility ac is off, it boosts the low battery voltage and delivers power to the load form the battery. Thus, the advantages of both systems are combined and the disadvantages of them are avoided. High efficiency is also achieved as only one converter is working in either situation. Details about the design and analysis of the new UPS are presented. For the main AC-DC part of the new UPS, a novel bridgeless three-level single-stage AC-DC converter is proposed. It eliminates the auxiliary circuit for balancing the capacitor voltages and the two bridge rectifier diodes in previous topology. Zero voltage switching, high power factor, and low component stresses are achieved with this topology. Compared to previous topologies, the proposed converter has a lower cost, higher reliability, and higher efficiency. The steady state operation of the converter is analyzed and a decoupled model is proposed for the converter. For the battery side converter as a part of the new UPS, a ZVS bidirectional DC-DC converter based on self-sustained oscillation control is proposed. Frequency control is used to ensure the ZVS operation of all four switches and phase shift control is employed to regulate the converter output power. Detailed analysis of the steady state operation and design of the converter are presented. Theoretical, simulation, and experimental results are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed concepts.

Development of Novel Time-Domain Electromagnetic Methods for Offshore Groundwater Studies: A Data Application from Bat Yam, Israel

Recent marine long-offset transient electromagnetic (LOTEM) measurements yielded the offshore delineation of a fresh groundwater body beneath the seafloor in the region of Bat Yam, Israel. The LOTEM application was effective in detecting this freshwater body underneath the Mediterranean Sea and allowed an estimation of its seaward extent. However, the measured data set was insufficient to understand the hydrogeological configuration and mechanism controlling the occurrence of this fresh groundwater discovery. Especially the lateral geometry of the freshwater boundary, important for the hydrogeological modelling, could not be resolved. Without such an understanding, a rational management of this unexploited groundwater reservoir is not possible. Two new high-resolution marine time-domain electromagnetic methods are theoretically developed to derive the hydrogeological structure of the western aquifer boundary. The first is called Circular Electric Dipole (CED). It is the land-based analogous of the Vertical Electric Dipole (VED), which is commonly applied to detect resistive structures in the subsurface. Although the CED shows exceptional detectability characteristics in the step-off signal towards the sub-seafloor freshwater body, an actual application was not carried out in the extent of this study. It was found that the method suffers from an insufficient signal strength to adequately delineate the resistive aquifer under realistic noise conditions. Moreover, modelling studies demonstrated that severe signal distortions are caused by the slightest geometrical inaccuracies. As a result, a successful application of CED in Israel proved to be rather doubtful. A second method called Differential Electric Dipole (DED) is developed as an alternative to the intended CED method. Compared to the conventional marine time-domain electromagnetic system that commonly applies a horizontal electric dipole transmitter, the DED is composed of two horizontal electric dipoles in an in-line configuration that share a common central electrode. Theoretically, DED has similar detectability/resolution characteristics compared to the conventional LOTEM system. However, the superior lateral resolution towards multi-dimensional resistivity structures make an application desirable. Furthermore, the method is less susceptible towards geometrical errors making an application in Israel feasible. In the extent of this thesis, the novel marine DED method is substantiated using several one-dimensional (1D) and multi-dimensional (2D/3D) modelling studies. The main emphasis lies on the application in Israel. Preliminary resistivity models are derived from the previous marine LOTEM measurement and tested for a DED application. The DED method is effective in locating the two-dimensional resistivity structure at the western aquifer boundary. Moreover, a prediction regarding the hydrogeological boundary conditions are feasible, provided a brackish water zone exists at the head of the interface. A seafloor-based DED transmitter/receiver system is designed and built at the Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology at the University of Cologne. The first DED measurements were carried out in Israel in April 2016. The acquired data set is the first of its kind. The measured data is processed and subsequently interpreted using 1D inversion. The intended aim of interpreting both step-on and step-off signals failed, due to the insufficient data quality of the latter. Yet, the 1D inversion models of the DED step-on signals clearly detect the freshwater body for receivers located close to the Israeli coast. Additionally, a lateral resistivity contrast is observable in the 1D inversion models that allow to constrain the seaward extent of this freshwater body. A large-scale 2D modelling study followed the 1D interpretation. In total, 425 600 forward calculations are conducted to find a sub-seafloor resistivity distribution that adequately explains the measured data. The results indicate that the western aquifer boundary is located at 3600 m - 3700 m before the coast. Moreover, a brackish water zone of 3 Omega*m to 5 Omega*m with a lateral extent of less than 300 m is likely located at the head of the freshwater aquifer. Based on these results, it is predicted that the sub-seafloor freshwater body is indeed open to the sea and may be vulnerable to seawater intrusion.

Effect Of Platform Connection And Abutment Material On Stress Distribution In Single Anterior Implant-supported Restorations: A Nonlinear 3-dimensional Finite Element Analysis.

Although various abutment connections and materials have recently been introduced, insufficient data exist regarding the effect of stress distribution on their mechanical performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of different abutment materials and platform connections on stress distribution in single anterior implant-supported restorations with the finite element method. Nine experimental groups were modeled from the combination of 3 platform connections (external hexagon, internal hexagon, and Morse tapered) and 3 abutment materials (titanium, zirconia, and hybrid) as follows: external hexagon-titanium, external hexagon-zirconia, external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, internal hexagon-zirconia, internal hexagon-hybrid, Morse tapered-titanium, Morse tapered-zirconia, and Morse tapered-hybrid. Finite element models consisted of a 4×13-mm implant, anatomic abutment, and lithium disilicate central incisor crown cemented over the abutment. The 49 N occlusal loading was applied in 6 steps to simulate the incisal guidance. Equivalent von Mises stress (σvM) was used for both the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the implant and abutment in all the groups and the maximum (σmax) and minimum (σmin) principal stresses for the numerical comparison of the zirconia parts. The highest abutment σvM occurred in the Morse-tapered groups and the lowest in the external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, and internal hexagon-hybrid groups. The σmax and σmin values were lower in the hybrid groups than in the zirconia groups. The stress distribution concentrated in the abutment-implant interface in all the groups, regardless of the platform connection or abutment material. The platform connection influenced the stress on abutments more than the abutment material. The stress values for implants were similar among different platform connections, but greater stress concentrations were observed in internal connections.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Cephalometric And Anthropometric Data Of Obstructive Apnea In Different Age Groups.

Patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome usually present with changes in upper airway morphology and/or body fat distribution, which may occur throughout life and increase the severity of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome with age. To correlate cephalometric and anthropometric measures with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome severity in different age groups. A retrospective study of cephalometric and anthropometric measures of 102 patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome was analyzed. Patients were divided into three age groups (≥20 and <40 years, ≥40 and <60 years, and ≥60 years). Pearson's correlation was performed for these measures with the apnea-hypopnea index in the full sample, and subsequently by age group. The cephalometric measures MP-H (distance between the mandibular plane and the hyoid bone) and PNS-P (distance between the posterior nasal spine and the tip of the soft palate) and the neck and waist circumferences showed a statistically significant correlation with apnea-hypopnea index in both the full sample and in the ≥40 and <60 years age group. These variables did not show any significant correlation with the other two age groups (<40 and ≥60 years). Cephalometric measurements MP-H and PNS-P and cervical and waist circumferences correlated with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome severity in patients in the ≥40 and <60 age group.

Glycosaminoglycan distribution in the rat uterine cervix during the estrous cycle

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the amount of glycosaminoglycans in the uterine cervix during each phase of the rat estrous cycle. DESIGN: Based on vaginal smears, forty female, regularly cycling rats were divided into four groups (n = 10 for each group): GI - proestrous, GII - estrous, GIII - metaestrous and GIV - diestrous. Animals were sacrificed at each phase of the cycle, and the cervix was immediately removed and submitted to biochemical extraction and determination of sulfated glycosaminoglycans and hyaluronic acid. The results were analyzed by ANOVA followed by the Bonferroni post-hoc test. RESULTS: The uterine cervix had the highest amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans and dermatan sulfate during the estrous phase (8.90 ± 0.55 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001; and 8.86 ± 0.57 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001). In addition, there was more heparan sulfate at the cervix during the proestrous phase (0.185 ± 0.03 mg/g of cetonic extract) than during any other phase (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the concentration of hyaluronic acid in the uterine cervix during the estrous cycle. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans may be influenced by hormonal fluctuations related to the estrous cycle, with dermatan sulfate and heparan sulfate being the glycosaminoglycans most sensitive to hormonal change.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.