Dynamic Models under Uncertainty for Large-Scale Enterprise Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Degrees of freedom and motor planning in purposive movement

This paper presents empirical evidence suggesting that healthy humans can perform a two degree of freedom visuo-motor pursuit tracking task with the same response time delay as a one degree of freedom task. In contrast, the time delay of the response is influenced markedly by the nature of the motor synergy required to produce it. We suggest a conceptual account of this evidence based on adaptive model theory, which combines theories of intermittency from psychology and adaptive optimal control from engineering. The intermittent response planning stage has a fixed period. It possesses multiple optimal trajectory generators such that multiple degrees of freedom can be planned concurrently, without requiring an increase in the planning period. In tasks which require unfamiliar motor synergies, or are deemed to be incompatible, internal adaptive models representing movement dynamics are inaccurate. This means that the actual response which is produced will deviate from the one which is planned. For a given target-response discrepancy, corrective response trajectories of longer duration are planned, consistent with the principle of speed-accuracy trade-off. Compared to familiar or compatible tasks, this results in a longer response time delay and reduced accuracy. From the standpoint of the intermittency approach, the findings of this study help make possible a more integral and predictive account of purposive action. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving learning in undergraduate control engineering courses using context-based learning models

Control Engineering is an essential part of university electrical engineering education. Normally, a control course requires considerable mathematical as well as engineering knowledge and is consequently regarded as a difficult course by many undergraduate students. From the academic point of view, how to help the students to improve their learning of the control engineering knowledge is therefore an important task which requires careful planning and innovative teaching methods. Traditionally, the didactic teaching approach has been used to teach the students the concepts needed to solve control problems. This approach is commonly adopted in many mathematics intensive courses; however it generally lacks reflection from the students to improve their learning. This paper addresses the practice of action learning and context-based learning models in teaching university control courses. This context-based approach has been practised in teaching several control engineering courses in a university with promising results, particularly in view of student learning performances.

Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning

Data on the occurrence of species are widely used to inform the design of reserve networks. These data contain commission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be present) and omission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be absent), and the rates of the two types of error are inversely related. Point locality data can minimize commission errors, but those obtained from museum collections are generally sparse, suffer from substantial spatial bias and contain large omission errors. Geographic ranges generate large commission errors because they assume homogenous species distributions. Predicted distribution data make explicit inferences on species occurrence and their commission and omission errors depend on model structure, on the omission of variables that determine species distribution and on data resolution. Omission errors lead to identifying networks of areas for conservation action that are smaller than required and centred on known species occurrences, thus affecting the comprehensiveness, representativeness and efficiency of selected areas. Commission errors lead to selecting areas not relevant to conservation, thus affecting the representativeness and adequacy of reserve networks. Conservation plans should include an estimation of commission and omission errors in underlying species data and explicitly use this information to influence conservation planning outcomes.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal production planning for PCB assembly

It is indisputable that printed circuit boards (PCBs) play a vital role in our daily lives. With the ever-increasing applications of PCBs, one of the crucial ways to increase a PCB manufacturer’s competitiveness in terms of operation efficiency is to minimize the production time so that the products can be introduced to the market sooner. Optimal Production Planning for PCB Assembly is the first book to focus on the optimization of the PCB assembly lines’ efficiency. This is done by: • integrating the component sequencing and the feeder arrangement problems together for both the pick-and-place machine and the chip shooter machine; • constructing mathematical models and developing an efficient and effective heuristic solution approach for the integrated problems for both types of placement machines, the line assignment problem, and the component allocation problem; and • developing a prototype of the PCB assembly planning system. The techniques proposed in Optimal Production Planning for PCB Assembly will enable process planners in the electronics manufacturing industry to improve the assembly line’s efficiency in their companies. Graduate students in operations research can familiarise themselves with the techniques and the applications of mathematical modeling after reading this advanced introduction to optimal production planning for PCB assembly.

Management processes in marketing planning

There has been concern in the literature about the adequacy of the traditional model of marketing planning, which focuses on what decisions should be made and not on how to make them. The aim of this article is a new conceptualisation that proposes key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context. The motives for this conceptualisation are to contribute to understanding by advancing the traditional model of marketing planning, to stimulate academic and practitioner debate about how marketing planning decisions are made, and to initiate new directions in marketing planning research. Two new competing models of marketing planning are developed, which address key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context, and research directions are proposed.

The impact of performance measurement in strategic planning

Purpose – To investigate the impact of performance measurement in strategic planning process. Design/methodology/approach – A large scale survey was conducted online with Warwick Business School alumni. The questionnaire was based on the Strategic Development Process model by Dyson. The questionnaire was designed to map the current practice of strategic planning and to determine its most influential factors on the effectiveness of the process. All questions were close ended and a seven-point Likert scale used. The independent variables were grouped into four meaningful factors by factor analysis (Varimax, coefficient of rotation 0.4). The factors produced were used to build regression models (stepwise) for the five assessments of strategic planning process. Regression models were developed for the totality of the responses, comparing SMEs and large organizations and comparing organizations operating in slowly and rapidly changing environments. Findings – The results indicate that performance measurement stands as one of the four main factors characterising the current practice of strategic planning. This research has determined that complexity coming from organizational size and rate of change in the sector creates variation in the impact of performance measurement in strategic planning. Large organizations and organizations operating in rapidly changing environments make greater use of performance measurement. Research limitations/implications – This research is based on subjective data, therefore the conclusions do not concern the impact of strategic planning process' elements on the organizational performance achievements, but on the success/effectiveness of the strategic planning process itself. Practical implications – This research raises a series of questions about the use and potential impact of performance measurement, especially in the categories of organizations that are not significantly influenced by its utilisation. It contributes to the field of performance measurement impact. Originality/value – This research fills in the gap literature concerning the lack of large scale surveys on strategic development processes and performance measurement. It also contributes in the literature of this field by providing empirical evidences on the impact of performance measurement upon the strategic planning process.

Raising the bar for systematic conservation planning

Mathematical methods in systematic conservation planning (SCP) represent a significant step toward cost-effective, transparent allocation of resources for biodiversity conservation. However, research demonstrates important consequences of uncertainties in SCP. Current research often relies on simplified case studies with unknown forms and amounts of uncertainty and low statistical power for generalizing results. Consequently, conservation managers have little evidence for the true performance of conservation planning methods in their own complex, uncertain applications. SCP needs to build evidence for predictive models of error and robustness to multiple, simultaneous uncertainties across a wide range of problems of known complexity. Only then can we determine true performance rather than how a method appears to perform on data with unknown uncertainty.

The influence of utilising government initiatives, servicing foreign MNCs and internationalisation on strategic planning process of local companies in Singapore

This research focuses on two groups of local companies; namely, high-growth local companies and other local companies, to examine and compare the influence of utilising governmental initiatives, servicing foreign MNCs and internationalisation on their strategic planning process. The theme of this thesis argues that the approach of an organisation towards strategic planning is not only determined by the internal influences; namely, its firm size and the planning behaviour and attitude of an entrepreneur, as revealed in the literature, but it can also be affected by external influences. The theoretical contribution of this research determines this unique situation in Singapore, and tests the robustness of the conventional models of planning in smaller companies. As a result of the external influences, this study reveals that local companies are more likely to undertake a much more formal strategic planning than the conventional Western literature and models would indicate. High-growth local companies, in comparison, however, had undertaken a more formal and rigorous strategic planning process than other local companies.

An examination of the appropriateness of the contemporary strategic management models for the Greek small manufacturing enterprises

The starting point of the project was the observation that strategic management is absent in small businesses. The first objective of the project was to examine the reasons causing this situation in Greece, the second one, to examine the appropriateness of the contemporary models of strategic planning for the Greek S.M.E.s, and the third to examine the appropriateness of the alternative approaches to strategic management for the Greek S.M.E.s. The term appropriateness includes (a) the ability of managers to use the models and (b) the ability of the models to assist the managers. The results of the research indicate that none of the two above conditions exists, hence, it is suggested that the contemporary models of strategic management are inappropriate for the Greek S.M.E.s. Many previous research projects on the topic suggest that since the strategic decision making process in S.M.E.s is informal, the whole process is absent or ineffective. Current trends in S.M.E.s' strategic management do not consider the informality of the strategic decision making process as a kind of managerial illness, but as a managerial characteristic. The use of sophisticated data collection and analytical methods does not indicate successful strategic decisions, but it indicates the method large firms use to manage their strategy. According to the literature review, the S.M.E.s' managers avoid the use of the contemporary models of strategic management, because they do not have the knowledge, the resources or the time. Another thesis, expressed by some firms' specialists, suggests that small firms are different from large ones, hence their practice of strategic management should not follow the large firm's prototypes.

A knowledge-based system for process planning in a seamless steel tube plant

The thesis describes the work carried out to develop a prototype knowledge-based system 'KBS-SETUPP' to generate process plans for the manufacture of seamless tubes. The work is specifically related to a plant in which hollows are made from solid billets using a rotary piercing process and then reduced to required size and finished properties using the fixed plug cold drawing process. The thesis first discusses various methods of tube production in order to give a general background of tube manufacture. Then a review of the automation of the process planning function is presented in terms of its basic sub-tasks and the techniques and suitability of a knowledge-based system is established. In the light of such a review and a case study, the process planning problem is formulated in the domain of seamless tube manufacture, its basic sub-tasks are identified and capabilities and constraints of the available equipment in the specific plant are established. The task of collecting and collating the process planning knowledge in seamless tube manufacture is discussed and is mostly fulfilled from domain experts, analysing of existing manufacturing records specific to plant, textbooks and applicable Standards. For the cold drawing mill, tube-drawing schedules have been rationalised to correspond with practice. The validation of such schedules has been achieved by computing the process parameters and then comparing these with the drawbench capacity to avoid over-loading. The existing models cannot be simulated in the computer program as such, therefore a mathematical model has been proposed which estimates the process parameters which are in close agreement with experimental values established by other researchers. To implement the concepts, a Knowledge-Based System 'KBS- SETUPP' has been developed on Personal Computer using Turbo- Prolog. The system is capable of generating process plans, production schedules and some additional capabilities to supplement process planning. The system generated process plans have been compared with the actual plans of the company and it has been shown that the results are satisfactory and encouraging and that the system has the capabilities which are useful.