900 resultados para Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk)


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China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

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Key topics: Since the birth of the Open Source movement in the mid-80's, open source software has become more and more widespread. Amongst others, the Linux operating system, the Apache web server and the Firefox internet explorer have taken substantial market shares to their proprietary competitors. Open source software is governed by particular types of licenses. As proprietary licenses only allow the software's use in exchange for a fee, open source licenses grant users more rights like the free use, free copy, free modification and free distribution of the software, as well as free access to the source code. This new phenomenon has raised many managerial questions: organizational issues related to the system of governance that underlie such open source communities (Raymond, 1999a; Lerner and Tirole, 2002; Lee and Cole 2003; Mockus et al. 2000; Tuomi, 2000; Demil and Lecocq, 2006; O'Mahony and Ferraro, 2007;Fleming and Waguespack, 2007), collaborative innovation issues (Von Hippel, 2003; Von Krogh et al., 2003; Von Hippel and Von Krogh, 2003; Dahlander, 2005; Osterloh, 2007; David, 2008), issues related to the nature as well as the motivations of developers (Lerner and Tirole, 2002; Hertel, 2003; Dahlander and McKelvey, 2005; Jeppesen and Frederiksen, 2006), public policy and innovation issues (Jullien and Zimmermann, 2005; Lee, 2006), technological competitions issues related to standard battles between proprietary and open source software (Bonaccorsi and Rossi, 2003; Bonaccorsi et al. 2004, Economides and Katsamakas, 2005; Chen, 2007), intellectual property rights and licensing issues (Laat 2005; Lerner and Tirole, 2005; Gambardella, 2006; Determann et al., 2007). A major unresolved issue concerns open source business models and revenue capture, given that open source licenses imply no fee for users. On this topic, articles show that a commercial activity based on open source software is possible, as they describe different possible ways of doing business around open source (Raymond, 1999; Dahlander, 2004; Daffara, 2007; Bonaccorsi and Merito, 2007). These studies usually look at open source-based companies. Open source-based companies encompass a wide range of firms with different categories of activities: providers of packaged open source solutions, IT Services&Software Engineering firms and open source software publishers. However, business models implications are different for each of these categories: providers of packaged solutions and IT Services&Software Engineering firms' activities are based on software developed outside their boundaries, whereas commercial software publishers sponsor the development of the open source software. This paper focuses on open source software publishers' business models as this issue is even more crucial for this category of firms which take the risk of investing in the development of the software. Literature at last identifies and depicts only two generic types of business models for open source software publishers: the business models of ''bundling'' (Pal and Madanmohan, 2002; Dahlander 2004) and the dual licensing business models (Välimäki, 2003; Comino and Manenti, 2007). Nevertheless, these business models are not applicable in all circumstances. Methodology: The objectives of this paper are: (1) to explore in which contexts the two generic business models described in literature can be implemented successfully and (2) to depict an additional business model for open source software publishers which can be used in a different context. To do so, this paper draws upon an explorative case study of IdealX, a French open source security software publisher. This case study consists in a series of 3 interviews conducted between February 2005 and April 2006 with the co-founder and the business manager. It aims at depicting the process of IdealX's search for the appropriate business model between its creation in 2000 and 2006. This software publisher has tried both generic types of open source software publishers' business models before designing its own. Consequently, through IdealX's trials and errors, I investigate the conditions under which such generic business models can be effective. Moreover, this study describes the business model finally designed and adopted by IdealX: an additional open source software publisher's business model based on the principle of ''mutualisation'', which is applicable in a different context. Results and implications: Finally, this article contributes to ongoing empirical work within entrepreneurship and strategic management on open source software publishers' business models: it provides the characteristics of three generic business models (the business model of bundling, the dual licensing business model and the business model of mutualisation) as well as conditions under which they can be successfully implemented (regarding the type of product developed and the competencies of the firm). This paper also goes further into the traditional concept of business model used by scholars in the open source related literature. In this article, a business model is not only considered as a way of generating incomes (''revenue model'' (Amit and Zott, 2001)), but rather as the necessary conjunction of value creation and value capture, according to the recent literature about business models (Amit and Zott, 2001; Chresbrough and Rosenblum, 2002; Teece, 2007). Consequently, this paper analyses the business models from these two components' point of view.

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

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Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater in South East Queensland (SEQ). A total of 84 rainwater samples were analysed for the presence of faecal indicators (using culture based methods) and zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogens using binary and quantitative PCR (qPCR). The concentrations of Salmonella invA, and Giardia lamblia β-giradin genes ranged from 65-380 genomic units/1000 mL and 9-57 genomic units/1000 mL of water, respectively. After converting gene copies to cell/cyst number, the risk of infection from G. lamblia and Salmonella spp. associated with the use of rainwater for bi-weekly garden hosing was calculated to be below the threshold value of 1 extra infection per 10,000 persons per year. However, the estimated risk of infection from drinking the rainwater daily was 44-250 (for G. lamblia) and 85-520 (for Salmonella spp.) infections per 10,000 persons per year. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically discussed. Nevertheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

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Background: The Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) is a valid nutrition screening tool in the acute hospital setting but has not been assessed in residential aged care facilities. The aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether the MST could be a useful nutrition screening tool when compared with a full nutrition assessment by Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) in the residential aged care setting. ----- Methods: Two hundred and eighty-five residents (29% male; mean age: 84 ± 9 years) from eight residential aged care facilities in Australia participated. A secondary analysis of data collected during a nutrition intervention study was conducted. The MST consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. While the MST was not specifically applied, weight loss and appetite information was available and an estimated MST score (0-5) calculated. Nutritional status was assessed by a research assistant trained in using SGA. ----- Results: Malnutrition prevalence was 42.8% (122 malnourished out of 285 residents). Compared to the SGA, the MST was an effective predictor of nutritional risk (sensitivity = 83.6%, specificity = 65.6%, positive predictive value = 0.65, negative predictive value =0.84). ----- Conclusions: The components of the MST have acceptable sensitivity and specificity suggesting it can play a valuable role in quickly identifying malnutrition risk in the residential aged care setting. Further prospective research using the MST tool against a broader array of objective and subjective nutritional parameters is required to confirm its validity as a screening tool in aged care settings.

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We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

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China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

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A total of 214 rainwater samples from 82 tanks were collected in urban Southeast Queensland (SEQ) in Australia and analysed for the zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogen using real-time binary PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to potential pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater. Of the 214 samples tested, 10.7%, 9.8%, and 5.6%, and 0.4% samples were positive for Salmonella invA, Giardia lamblia β-giardin , Legionella pneumophila mip, and Campylobacter jejuni mapA genes. Cryptosporidium parvum could not be detected. The estimated numbers of viable Salmonella spp., G. lamblia β-giradin, and L. pneumophila genes ranged from 1.6 × 101 to 9.5 × 101 cells, 1.4 × 10-1 to 9.0 × 10-1 cysts, and 1.5 × 101 to 4.3 × 101 per 1000 ml of water, respectively. Six risk scenarios were considered from exposure to Salmonella spp., G. lamblia and L. pneumophila. For Salmonella spp., and G. lamblia, these scenarios were: (1) liquid ingestion due to drinking of rainwater on a daily basis (2) accidental liquid ingestion due to garden hosing twice a week (3) aerosol ingestion due to showering on a daily basis, and (4) aerosol ingestion due to hosing twice a week. For L. pneumophila, these scenarios were: (5) aerosol inhalation due to showering on a daily basis, and (6) aerosol inhalation due to hosing twice a week. The risk of infection from Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila associated with the use of rainwater for showering and garden hosing was calculated to be well below the threshold value of one extra infection per 10,000 persons per year in urban SEQ. However, the risk of infection from ingesting Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia via drinking exceeds this threshold value, and indicates that if undisinfected rainwater were ingested by drinking, then the gastrointestinal diseases of Salmonellosis and Giardiasis is expected to range from 5.0 × 100 to 2.8 × 101 (Salmonellosis) and 1.0 × 101 to 6.4 × 101 (Giardiasis) cases per 10,000 persons per year, respectively. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically examined. Nonetheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

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It is widely contended that we live in a „world risk society‟, where risk plays a central and ubiquitous role in contemporary social life. A seminal contributor to this view is Ulrich Beck, who claims that our world is governed by dangers that cannot be calculated or insured against. For Beck, risk is an inherently unrestrained phenomenon, emerging from a core and pouring out from and under national borders, unaffected by state power. Beck‟s focus on risk's ubiquity and uncontrollability at an infra-global level means that there is a necessary evenness to the expanse of risk: a "universalization of hazards‟, which possess an inbuilt tendency towards globalisation. While sociological scholarship has examined the reach and impact of globalisation processes on the role and power of states, Beck‟s argument that economic risk is without territory and resistant to domestic policy has come under less appraisal. This is contestable: what are often described as global economic processes, on closer inspection, reveal degrees of territorial embeddedness. This not only suggests that "global‟ flows could sometimes be more appropriately explained as international, regional or even local processes, formed from and responsive to state strategies – but also demonstrates what can be missed if we overinflate the global. This paper briefly introduces two key principles of Beck's theory of risk society and positions them within a review of literature debating the novelty and degree of global economic integration and its impact on states pursuing domestic economic policies. In doing so, this paper highlights the value for future research to engage with questions such as "is economic risk really without territory‟ and "does risk produce convergence‟, not so much as a means of reducing Beck's thesis to a purely empirical analysis, but rather to avoid limiting our scope in understanding the complex relationship between risk and state.

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Background: Waist circumference has been identified as a valuable predictor of cardiovascular risk in children. The development of waist circumference percentiles and cut-offs for various ethnic groups are necessary because of differences in body composition. The purpose of this study was to develop waist circumference percentiles for Chinese children and to explore optimal waist circumference cut-off values for predicting cardiovascular risk factors clustering in this population.----- ----- Methods: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured in 5529 children (2830 boys and 2699 girls) aged 6-12 years randomly selected from southern and northern China. Blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose were obtained in a subsample (n = 1845). Smoothed percentile curves were produced using the LMS method. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was used to derive the optimal age- and gender-specific waist circumference thresholds for predicting the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors.----- ----- Results: Gender-specific waist circumference percentiles were constructed. The waist circumference thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67% to 83%. The odds ratio of a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors among boys and girls with a higher value than cut-off points was 10.349 (95% confidence interval 4.466 to 23.979) and 8.084 (95% confidence interval 3.147 to 20.767) compared with their counterparts.----- ----- Conclusions: Percentile curves for waist circumference of Chinese children are provided. The cut-off point for waist circumference to predict cardiovascular risk factors clustering is at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively.

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The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

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Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Latin American online purchase behaviour with a specific focus on the influence of perceived risk and trust. While studies of this nature have been conducted quite extensively in developed countries, their application in developing countries, such as Latin America is limited. Our study addresses this gap in the literature with an empirical study conducted in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The authors develop and test a proposed model of the influence of consumer’s perceptions of risk and trust on their attitudes and intentions to purchase on the Internet. An online survey method is used. The sample consists of 176 Chilean consumers who have made at least one purchase online. The data is analysed using structural equation modelling technique (SEM). Findings: The analysis revealed that of the perceived risk and trust factors examined, trust in third party assurances and a cultural environment of trust had the strongest positive influence on intentions to continuing purchasing online. Perceived risk had an inverse relationship with attitude and consumers’ attitude has a positive influence on intentions to purchase online. Trust in online vendors and a propensity to trust were both insignificant. Practical implications: Practically, these results identity which risk and trust beliefs towards purchasing online have the most effect thereby providing insights into how companies should seek to mitigate perceptions of risk to encourage new and return purchasers. Additionally, this research shows that consumers in a Latin American country, recognised as a collectivist, high risk avoidance culture, are willing to make purchases online despite the risks involved. Originality/value: The study and its results is one of few available that consider a Latin American context. The value of the findings provides insights into the specific risk and trust factors that influence Chilean consumers when considering purchasing online. The tested model adds value not only to the literature on Latin American consumer behaviour but also provides guidance for companies offering online retailing facilities in these less developed countries.

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The principles relating to the passing of risk under a contract for the sale of real property would seem to have been long settled. The rule under the general law is that the risk of loss of the subject matter under a contract for the sale of real property passes to the buyer upon the creation of a valid and binding contract. This article considers the origin of that rule, how it developed with the growth of equity, and advances the view that it is anomalous in a modern context of property dealings. In doing so, the article adverts to the variety of statutory mechanisms used to subvert the rule, few of which are of practical value. It concludes that the rule is outmoded in many respects and suggests a number of reforms which might be implemented nationally to bring consistency and simplicity to the issue of damage or destruction of improvements which are the subject of a land contract.