The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Border figure detection using a phase oscillator network with dynamical coupling

Oscillator networks have been developed in order to perform specific tasks related to image processing. Here we analytically investigate the existence of synchronism in a pair of phase oscillators that are short-range dynamically coupled. Then, we use these analytical results to design a network able of detecting border of black-and-white figures. Each unit composing this network is a pair of such phase oscillators and is assigned to a pixel in the image. The couplings among the units forming the network are also dynamical. Border detection emerges from the network activity.

Combining Legendre's Polynomials and Genetic Algorithm in the Solution of Nonlinear Initial-Value Problems

This work develops a method for solving ordinary differential equations, that is, initial-value problems, with solutions approximated by using Legendre's polynomials. An iterative procedure for the adjustment of the polynomial coefficients is developed, based on the genetic algorithm. This procedure is applied to several examples providing comparisons between its results and the best polynomial fitting when numerical solutions by the traditional Runge-Kutta or Adams methods are available. The resulting algorithm provides reliable solutions even if the numerical solutions are not available, that is, when the mass matrix is singular or the equation produces unstable running processes.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Direct Computation of Operational Matrices for Polynomial Bases

Several numerical methods for boundary value problems use integral and differential operational matrices, expressed in polynomial bases in a Hilbert space of functions. This work presents a sequence of matrix operations allowing a direct computation of operational matrices for polynomial bases, orthogonal or not, starting with any previously known reference matrix. Furthermore, it shows how to obtain the reference matrix for a chosen polynomial base. The results presented here can be applied not only for integration and differentiation, but also for any linear operation.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Fully Connected PLL Networks: How Filter Determines the Number of Nodes

Synchronization plays an important role in telecommunication systems, integrated circuits, and automation systems. Formerly, the masterslave synchronization strategy was used in the great majority of cases due to its reliability and simplicity. Recently, with the wireless networks development, and with the increase of the operation frequency of integrated circuits, the decentralized clock distribution strategies are gaining importance. Consequently, fully connected clock distribution systems with nodes composed of phase-locked loops (PLLs) appear as a convenient engineering solution. In this work, the stability of the synchronous state of these networks is studied in two relevant situations: when the node filters are first-order lag-lead low-pass or when the node filters are second-order low-pass. For first-order filters, the synchronous state of the network shows to be stable for any number of nodes. For second-order filter, there is a superior limit for the number of nodes, depending on the PLL parameters. Copyright (C) 2009 Atila Madureira Bueno et al.

Synchronization of Discrete-Time Chaotic Systems in Bandlimited Channels

Over the last couple of decades, many methods for synchronizing chaotic systems have been proposed with communications applications in view. Yet their performance has proved disappointing in face of the nonideal character of usual channels linking transmitter and receiver, that is, due to both noise and signal propagation distortion. Here we consider a discrete-time master-slave system that synchronizes despite channel bandwidth limitations and an allied communication system. Synchronization is achieved introducing a digital filter that limits the spectral content of the feedback loop responsible for producing the transmitted signal. Copyright (C) 2009 Marcio Eisencraft et al.

Sliding wear of weld layers with application to cane mill shaft rebuilding

Three welding procedures used to rebuild worn shafts in sugar cane mills were analysed: two submerged arc welding processes and one flux cored arc welding (FCAW) process. Sliding wear tests were in accordance with ASTM G 77 standard, using rings of welding material, blocks of bronze SAE 67, and oil as lubricant. The worn surfaces of rings and blocks were analysed by scanning electron microscopy to determine the wear mechanisms. High contact pressure, high operating temperature, and low relative speed were applied in sliding wear tests to match the conditions in sugar cane mills. Transferred material and evidence of adhesive junctions were detected. Additionally, hardened fragments produced abrasive grooves on the worn surfaces. The welding deposits that presented strong adhesion on the worn surface showed higher mass loss than the materials that presented more abrasive characteristics. Plastic mechanical properties were measured and related to the mass loss. The tested materials presented similar hardness but different yield stress and hardening coefficient. A relationship between wear, strain hardening coefficient, and yield stress was found. The welding deposit that presented the highest hardening coefficient showed the highest mass loss, with evidence of severe adhesion on the worn surface.

QTL mapping for yield components in a tropical maize population using microsatellite markers

QTL mapping provides usefull information for breeding programs since it allows the estimation of genomic locations and genetic effects of chromossomal regions related to the expression of quantitative traits. The objective of this study was to map QTL related to several agronomic important traits associated with grain yield: ear weight (EW), prolificacy (PROL), ear number (NE), ear length (EL) and diameter (ED), number of rows on the ear (NRE) and number of kernels per row on the ear (NKPR). Four hundred F-2:3 tropical maize progenies were evaluated in five environments in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The genetic map was previously estimated and had 117 microssatelite loci with average distance of 14 cM. Data was analysed using Composite Interval Mapping for each trait. Thirty six QTL were mapped and related to the expression of EW (2), PROL (3), NE (2), EL (5), ED (5), NRE (10), NKPR (5). Few QTL were mapped since there was high GxE interaction. Traits EW, PROL and EN showed high genetic correlation with grain yield and several QTL mapped to similar genomic regions, which could cause the observed correlation. However, further analysis using apropriate statistical models are required to separate linked versus pleiotropic QTL. Five QTL (named Ew1, Ne1, Ed3, Nre3 and Nre10) had high genetic effects, explaining from 10.8% (Nre3) to 16.9% (Nre10) of the phenotypic variance, and could be considered in further studies.

Potassium trifluoro[(Z)-3-methoxyprop-1-enyl]borate

In the title salt, K(+)center dot C(4)H(7)BF(3)O(-), the K atom is surrounded by six anions making close contacts through seven F [K center dot center dot center dot F = 2.779 (1)-3.048 (1) angstrom] and two O [K center dot center dot center dot O = 2.953 (2) and 3.127 (2) angstrom] atoms in a trivacant fac-vIC-9 icosahedral coordination geometry.

Potassium trifluoro[(Z)-3-(oxan-2-yloxy)prop-1-en-1-yl]borate monohydrate

The title compound, K(+)center dot C(8)H(13)BF(3)O(2)(-)center dot H(2)O, which was obtained from the reaction of a modified form of Z-vinylic telluride via a transmetalation reaction with n-BuLi, crystallizes as K(+) and C(8)H(13)BF(3)O(2)-ions along with a water molecule. The K(+) cation is surrounded by four anions, making close contacts with six F atoms at 2.659 (3)-2.906 (3) angstrom and with two O atoms at 2.806 (3) and 2.921 (3) angstrom in a distorted bicapped trigonal-prismatic geometry.

Intestinal Anti-Inflammatory Activity of Baccharis dracunculifolia in the Trinitrobenzenesulphonic Acid Model of Rat Colitis

Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae) is a Brazilian medicinal plant popularly used for its antiulcer and anti-inflammatory properties. This plant is the main botanical source of Brazilian green propolis, a natural product incorporated into food and beverages to improve health. The present study aimed to investigate the chemical profile and intestinal anti-inflammatory activity of B. dracunculifolia extract on experimental ulcerative colitis induced by trinitrobenzenosulfonic acid (TNBS). Colonic damage was evaluated macroscopically and biochemically through its evaluation of glutathione content and its myeloperoxidase (MPO) and alkaline phosphatase activities. Additional in vitro experiments were performed in order to test the antioxidant activity by inhibition of induced lipid peroxidation in the rat brain membrane. Phytochemical analysis was performed by HPLC using authentic standards. The administration of plant extract (5 and 50 mgkg(-1)) significantly attenuated the colonic damage induced by TNBS as evidenced both macroscopically and biochemically. This beneficial effect can be associated with an improvement in the colonic oxidative status, since plant extract prevented glutathione depletion, inhibited lipid peroxidation and reduced MPO activity. Caffeic acid, p-coumaric acid, aromadendrin-4-O-methyl ether, 3-prenyl-p-coumaric acid, 3,5-diprenyl-p-coumaric acid and baccharin were detected in the plant extract.

Assessment of the Mutagenic Activity of Extracts of Brazilian Propolis in Topical Pharmaceutical Formulations on Mammalian Cells In Vitro and In Vivo

Propolis possesses various biological activities such as antibacterial, antifungal, anti-inflammatory, anesthetic and antioxidant properties. A topically applied product based on Brazilian green propolis was developed for the treatment of burns. For such substance to be used more safely in future clinical applications, the present study evaluated the mutagenic potential of topical formulations supplemented with green propolis extract (1.2, 2.4 and 3.6%) based on the analysis of chromosomal aberrations and of micronuclei. In the in vitro studies, 3-h pulse (G(1) phase of the cell cycle) and continuous (20 h) treatments were performed. In the in vivo assessment, the animals were injured on the back and then submitted to acute (24 h), subacute (7 days) and subchronic (30 days) treatments consisting of daily dermal applications of gels containing different concentrations of propolis. Similar frequencies of chromosomal aberrations were observed for cultures submitted to 3-h pulse and continuous treatment with gels containing different propolis concentrations and cultures not submitted to any treatment. However, in the continuous treatment cultures treated with the 3.6% propolis gel presented significantly lower mitotic indices than the negative control. No statistically significant differences in the frequencies of micronuclei were observed between animals treated with gels containing different concentrations of propolis and the negative control for the three treatment times. Under the present conditions, topical formulations containing different concentrations of green propolis used for the treatment of burns showed no mutagenic effect in either test system, but 3.6% propolis gel was found to be cytotoxic in the in vitro test.