Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Pulmonary Embolism Mortality in Brazil from 1989 to 2010: Gender and Regional Disparities

Abstract Background: A significant variation in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends have been documented around the world. We investigated the trends in mortality rate from PE in Brazil over a period of 21 years and its regional and gender differences. Methods: Using a nationwide database of death certificate information we searched for all cases with PE as the underlying cause of death between 1989 and 2010. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We calculated age-, gender- and region-specific mortality rates for each year, using the 2000 Brazilian population for direct standardization. Results: Over 21 years the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) fell 31% from 3.04/100,000 to 2.09/100,000. In every year between 1989 and 2010, the ASMR was higher in women than in men, but both showed a significant declining trend, from 3.10/100,000 to 2.36/100,000 and from 2.94/100,000 to 1.80/100,000, respectively. Although all country regions showed a decline in their ASMR, the largest fall in death rates was concentrated in the highest income regions of the South and Southeast Brazil. The North and Northeast regions, the lowest income areas, showed a less marked fall in death rates and no distinct change in the PE mortality rate in women. Conclusions: Our study showed a reduction in the PE mortality rate over two decades in Brazil. However, significant variation in this trend was observed amongst the five country regions and between genders, pointing to possible disparities in health care access and quality in these groups.

Mortality from Circulatory System Diseases and Malformations in Children in the State of Rio de Janeiro

Abstract Background: The epidemiological profile of mortality in a population is important for the institution of measures to improve health care and reduce mortality Objective: To estimate mortality rates and the proportional mortality from cardiovascular diseases and malformations of the circulatory system in children and adolescents. Methods: This is a descriptive study of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, malformations of the circulatory system, from all causes, ill-defined causes and external causes in children and adolescents in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1996 to 2012. Populations were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE) and deaths obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS)/Ministry of Health. Results: There were 115,728 deaths from all causes, 69,757 in males. The annual mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 2.7/100,000 in men and 2.6/100,000 in women. The annual mortality from malformations of the circulatory system was 7.5/100,000 in men and 6.6/100,000 in women. Among the specific causes of circulatory diseases, cardiomyopathies had the highest rates of annual proportional mortality, and from malformations of the circulatory system, it occurred due to unspecified malformations of the circulatory system, at all ages and in both genders. Conclusion: Mortality from malformations of the circulatory system was most striking in the first years of life, while cardiovascular diseases were more relevant in adolescents. Low access to prenatal diagnosis or at birth probably prevented the proper treatment of malformations of the circulatory system.

Trends in Mortality Rate from Cardiovascular Disease in Brazil, 1980-2012

Abstract Background: Studies have questioned the downward trend in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in recent years. Objective: to analyze recent trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in the Brazilian population. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by the direct method, using as reference the world population of 2000. We analyzed trends in mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke in women and men in the periods of 1980-2006 and 2007-2012. Results: there was a decrease in CVD mortality and stroke in women and men for both periods (p < 0.001). Annual mortality variations for periods 1980-2006 and 2007-2012 were, respectively: CVD (total): -1.5% and -0.8%; CVD men: -1.4% and -0.6%; CVD women: -1.7% and -1.0%; DIC (men): -1.1% and 0.1%; stroke (men): -1.7% and -1.4%; DIC (women): -1.5% and 0.4%; stroke (women): -2.0% and -1.9%. From 1980 to 2006, there was a decrease in IHD mortality in men and women (p < 0.001), but from 2007 to 2012, changes in IHD mortality were not significant in men [y = 151 + 0.04 (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.779)] and women [y = 88-0.54 (R2 = 0.24; p = 0.320). Conclusion: Trend in mortality from IHD stopped falling in Brazil from 2007 to 2012.

Perioperative Morbidität und Mortalität bei Patienten mit einem BMI über 50kg/m2 : Indikation für ein abgestuftes Therapiekonzept

Magdeburg, Univ., Med. Fak., Diss., 2013

Lineare versus zirkuläre Gastrojejunostomie bei Roux-en-Y-Magenbypass : Einfluss auf die perioperative Morbidität und die Gewichtsreduktion ; Analyse der Daten der Qualitätssicherungsstudie für operative Therapie der Adipositas 2005 - 2010

Magdeburg, Univ., Med. Fak., Diss., 2014

A Multi-state model for the analysis of functional decline and mortality of frail elderly patients

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi, que correspon a un projecte de recerca sobre la pèrdua funcional i la mortalitat de persones grans fràgils, és construir un procés de supervivència predictiu que tingui en compte l’evolució funcional i nutricional dels pacients al llarg del temps. En aquest estudi ens enfrontem a l’anàlisi de dades de supervivència i mesures repetides però els mètodes estadístics habituals per al tractament conjunt d’aquest tipus de dades no són apropiats en aquest cas. Com a alternativa utilitzem els models de supervivència multi-estats per avaluar l’associació entre mortalitat i recuperació, o no, dels nivells funcionals i nutricionals considerats normals. Després d’estimar el model i d’identificar els factors pronòstics de mortalitat és possible obtenir un procés predictiu que permet fer prediccions de la supervivència dels pacients en funció de la seva història concreta fins a un determinat moment. Això permet realitzar un pronòstic més precís de cada grup de pacients, la qual cosa pot ser molt útil per als professionals sanitaris a l’hora de prendre decisions clíniques.

Perioperative antiplatelet therapy.

Aspirin is recommended as a lifelong therapy that should never be interrupted for patients with cardiovascular dis- ease. Clopidogrel therapy is mandatory for six weeks after placement of bare-metal stents, three to six months after myocardial infarction, and at least 12 months after placement of drug-eluting stents. Because of the hypercoagulable state induced by surgery, early withdrawal of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease increases the risk of postoperative myocardial infarction and death five- to 10-fold in stented patients who are on continuous dual antiplatelet therapy. The shorter the time between revascularization and surgery, the higher the risk of adverse cardiac events. Elective surgery should be postponed beyond these periods, whereas vital, semiurgent, or urgent operations should be performed under continued dual antiplatelet therapy. The risk of surgical hemorrhage is increased approximately 20 percent by aspirin or clopidogrel alone, and 50 percent by dual antiplatelet therapy. The present clinical data suggest that the risk of a cardiovascular event when stopping antiplatelet agents preoperatively is higher than the risk of surgical bleeding when continuing these drugs, except during surgery in a closed space (e.g., intracranial, posterior eye chamber) or surgeries associated with massive bleeding and difficult hemostasis.

Perioperative stress in dogs underwent elective surgery: evaluation of the antioxidant activity

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Department of Biological Science a la University of Lincoln, a la Gran Bretanya, entre octubre i desembre del 2006. L'objectiu del present assaig va ser desciure les respostes antioxidants d'estrès en gossos sotmesos a cirurgia electiva, en condicions de pràctica clínica normals, durant les fases de preoperatori i postoperatori.Setze gossos van ser sotmesos a orquiectomia o ovariohisterectomia electives, utilitzant un protocol quirúrgic estàndard. Durant les fases preoperatoria i postoperatoria, cada animal va ser confinat a la Unitat de Cures Intensives, temps durant el qual es va estudiar la seva resposta antioxidant. Els valors obtinguts a diferents temps van ser comparats amb el valor basal, que s'havia obtingut del mateix animal estant aquest en el seu ambient habitual. No es van detectar variacions significants causades per l'estrès perioperatori. Els valors màxims es van observar durant la fase preoperatoria, just després que l'animal fós confinat a la Unitat de Cures Intensives, moment en el que l'estrès percebut era degut a les amenaces psicològiques de una àrea restringida i de la manipulació per persones desonegudes. L'abscència de variacions significants podrien ser degudes al sistema i el temps d'emmagatzement de les mostres. En humana s'han descrit les alteracions en l'activitat dels antioxidants sèrics després d'un mes d'emmagatzematent. Per definir l'estabilitat, després de la recollida de mostres, de l'activitat dels antioxidants en sèrum de gos és necessari realitzar més estudis.

Body-mass index and mortality.

Comment on: Prospective Studies Collaboration, Whitlock G, Lewington S et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083-96. PMID: 19299006.

Old age mortality: a state of the art

This Phd research report aims to obtain a better understanding of the recent changes in mortality of the elderly population in developed countries. It’s essence will be a critical thinking, without performing empirical work, which means that the analysis and concepts of the actual demographic literature will form the main body of this work. There are two central questions: Which age and cause specific mortality trends caused these recent changes in the life expectancy?Did the increase in life expectancy of the elderly population accelerate, continue or decline in recent years?”

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in young adults: recent trends in Europe.

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.