Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Quantifying the importance of galactic cosmic rays in cloud microphysical processes

Galactic Cosmic Rays are one of the major sources of ion production in the troposphere and stratosphere. Recent studies have shown that ions form electrically charged clusters which may grow to become cloud droplets. Aerosol particles charge by the attachment of ions and electrons. The collision efficiency between a particle and a water droplet increases, if the particle is electrically charged, and thus aerosol-cloud interactions can be enhanced. Because these microphysical processes may change radiative properties of cloud and impact Earth's climate it is important to evaluate these processes' quantitative effects. Five different models developed independently have been coupled to investigate this. The first model estimates cloud height from dew point temperature and the temperature profile. The second model simulates the cloud droplet growth from aerosol particles using the cloud parcel concept. In the third model, the scavenging rate of the aerosol particles is calculated using the collision efficiency between charged particles and droplets. The fourth model calculates electric field and charge distribution on water droplets and aerosols within cloud. The fifth model simulates the global electric circuit (GEC), which computes the conductivity and ionic concentration in the atmosphere in altitude range 0–45 km. The first four models are initially coupled to calculate the height of cloud, boundary condition of cloud, followed by growth of droplets, charge distribution calculation on aerosols and cloud droplets and finally scavenging. These models are incorporated with the GEC model. The simulations are verified with experimental data of charged aerosol for various altitudes. Our calculations showed an effect of aerosol charging on the CCN concentration within the cloud, due to charging of aerosols increase the scavenging of particles in the size range 0.1 µm to 1 µm.

Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula: a data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system

Large changes in the extent of northern subtropical arid regions during the Holocene are attributed to orbitally forced variations in monsoon strength and have been implicated in the regulation of atmospheric trace gas concentrations on millenial timescales. Models that omit biogeophysical feedback, however, are unable to account for the full magnitude of African monsoon amplification and extension during the early to middle Holocene (˜9500–5000 years B.P.). A data set describing land-surface conditions 6000 years B.P. on a 1° × 1° grid across northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has been prepared from published maps and other sources of palaeoenvironmental data, with the primary aim of providing a realistic lower boundary condition for atmospheric general circulation model experiments similar to those performed in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The data set includes information on the percentage of each grid cell occupied by specific vegetation types (steppe, savanna, xerophytic woods/scrub, tropical deciduous forest, and tropical montane evergreen forest), open water (lakes), and wetlands, plus information on the flow direction of major drainage channels for use in large-scale palaeohydrological modeling.

Lattice Boltzmann method for simulating the viscous flow in large distensible blood vessels

A lattice Boltzmann method for simulating the viscous flow in large distensible blood vessels is presented by introducing a boundary condition for elastic and moving boundaries. The mass conservation for the boundary condition is tested in detail. The viscous flow in elastic vessels is simulated with a pressure-radius relationship similar to that of the Pulmonary blood vessels. The numerical results for steady flow agree with the analytical prediction to very high accuracy, and the simulation results for pulsatile flow are comparable with those of the aortic flows observed experimentally. The model is expected to find many applications for studying blood flows in large distensible arteries, especially in those suffering from atherosclerosis. stenosis. aneurysm, etc.

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.

DAMPED WAVE EQUATIONS WITH FAST GROWING DISSIPATIVE NONLINEARITIES

Let a > 0, Omega subset of R(N) be a bounded smooth domain and - A denotes the Laplace operator with Dirichlet boundary condition in L(2)(Omega). We study the damped wave problem {u(tt) + au(t) + Au - f(u), t > 0, u(0) = u(0) is an element of H(0)(1)(Omega), u(t)(0) = v(0) is an element of L(2)(Omega), where f : R -> R is a continuously differentiable function satisfying the growth condition vertical bar f(s) - f (t)vertical bar <= C vertical bar s - t vertical bar(1 + vertical bar s vertical bar(rho-1) + vertical bar t vertical bar(rho-1)), 1 < rho < (N - 2)/(N + 2), (N >= 3), and the dissipativeness condition limsup(vertical bar s vertical bar ->infinity) s/f(s) < lambda(1) with lambda(1) being the first eigenvalue of A. We construct the global weak solutions of this problem as the limits as eta -> 0(+) of the solutions of wave equations involving the strong damping term 2 eta A(1/2)u with eta > 0. We define a subclass LS subset of C ([0, infinity), L(2)(Omega) x H(-1)(Omega)) boolean AND L(infinity)([0, infinity), H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega)) of the `limit` solutions such that through each initial condition from H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) passes at least one solution of the class LS. We show that the class LS has bounded dissipativeness property in H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) and we construct a closed bounded invariant subset A of H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega), which is weakly compact in H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) and compact in H({I})(s)(Omega) x H(s-1)(Omega), s is an element of [0, 1). Furthermore A attracts bounded subsets of H(0)(1)(Omega) x L(2)(Omega) in H({I})(s)(Omega) x H(s-1)(Omega), for each s is an element of [0, 1). For N = 3, 4, 5 we also prove a local uniqueness result for the case of smooth initial data.

Radiation properties of coil-coated steel in building envelope surfaces and the influence on building thermal performance

Recent studies have shown that the optical properties of building exterior surfaces are important in terms of energy use and thermal comfort. While the majority of the studies are related to exterior surfaces, the radiation properties of interior surfaces are less thoroughly investigated. Development in the coil-coating industries has now made it possible to allocate different optical properties for both exterior and interior surfaces of steel-clad buildings. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the influence of surface radiation properties with the focus on the thermal emittance of the interior surfaces, the modeling approaches and their consequences in the context of the building energy performance and indoor thermal environment. The study consists of both numerical and experimental investigations. The experimental investigations include parallel field measurements on three similar test cabins with different interior and exterior surface radiation properties in Borlänge, Sweden, and two ice rink arenas with normal and low emissive ceiling in Luleå, Sweden. The numerical methods include comparative simulations by the use of dynamic heat flux models, Building Energy Simulation (BES), Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a coupled model for BES and CFD. Several parametric studies and thermal performance analyses were carried out in combination with the different numerical methods. The parallel field measurements on the test cabins include the air, surface and radiation temperatures and energy use during passive and active (heating and cooling) measurements. Both measurement and comparative simulation results indicate an improvement in the indoor thermal environment when the interior surfaces have low emittance. In the ice rink arenas, surface and radiation temperature measurements indicate a considerable reduction in the ceiling-to-ice radiation by the use of low emittance surfaces, in agreement with a ceiling-toice radiation model using schematic dynamic heat flux calculations. The measurements in the test cabins indicate that the use of low emittance surfaces can increase the vertical indoor air temperature gradients depending on the time of day and outdoor conditions. This is in agreement with the transient CFD simulations having the boundary condition assigned on the exterior surfaces. The sensitivity analyses have been performed under different outdoor conditions and surface thermal radiation properties. The spatially resolved simulations indicate an increase in the air and surface temperature gradients by the use of low emittance coatings. This can allow for lower air temperature at the occupied zone during the summer. The combined effect of interior and exterior reflective coatings in terms of energy use has been investigated by the use of building energy simulation for different climates and internal heat loads. The results indicate possible energy savings by the smart choice of optical properties on interior and exterior surfaces of the building. Overall, it is concluded that the interior reflective coatings can contribute to building energy savings and improvement of the indoor thermal environment. This can be numerically investigated by the choice of appropriate models with respect to the level of detail and computational load. This thesis includes comparative simulations at different levels of detail.

Scope for further analytical solutions for constant flux infiltration into a semi-infinite soil profile or redistribution in a finite soil profile.

We attempt to generate new solutions for the moisture content form of the one-dimensional Richards' [1931] equation using the Lisle [1992] equivalence mapping. This mapping is used as no more general set of transformations exists for mapping the one-dimensional Richards' equation into itself. Starting from a given solution, the mapping has the potential to generate an infinite number of new solutions for a series of nonlinear diffusivity and hydraulic conductivity functions. We first seek new analytical solutions satisfying Richards' equation subject to a constant flux surface boundary condition for a semi-infinite dry soil, starting with the Burgers model. The first iteration produces an existing solution, while subsequent iterations are shown to endlessly reproduce this same solution. Next, we briefly consider the problem of redistribution in a finite-length soil. In this case, Lisle's equivalence mapping is generalized to account for arbitrary initial conditions. As was the case for infiltration, however, it is found that new analytical solutions are not generated using the equivalence mapping, although existing solutions are recovered.

Integral approach and numerical improvement to calculate the carbon concentration profiles in carburising process

In the present work, the carbon diffusion in steel, where the carbon diffusivity varies with the carbon content, was solved with the integral methods under the third boundary condition. The variation of carbon diffusivity in steel with the carbon content was described with two different functions ie. linear dependence and exponential dependence. The integral approximation for both cases was improved with the numerical computation to more accurately predict the carbon profiles. The integral solution is more accurate than the formulation based on the assumption of a constant diffusivity or those based on the assumption of a constant diffusivity and/or constant carbon content at part surface. It is also more easily used in practice than the numerical method to describe the carburising process and predict the carbon content at steel surface and carbon profiles in treated layer.

Transient responses of a wetting film to mechanical and electrical perturbations

This article reports real-time observations and detailed modeling of the transient response of thin aqueous films bounded by a deformable surface to external mechanical and electrical perturbations. Such films, tens to hundreds of nanometers thick, are confined between a molecularly smooth mica plate and a deformable mercury/electrolyte interface on a protuberant drop at a sealed capillary tube. When the mercury is negatively charged, the water forms a wetting film on mica, stabilized by electrical double layer forces. Mechanical perturbations are produced by driving the mica plate toward or by retracting the mica plate from the mercury surface. Electrical perturbations are applied to change the electrical double layer interaction between the mica and the mercury by imposing a step change of the bias voltage between the mercury and the bulk electrolyte. A theoretical model has been developed that can account for these observations quantitatively. Comparison between experiments and theory indicates that a no-slip hydrodynamic boundary condition holds at the molecularly smooth mica/electrolyte surface and at the deformable mercury/electrolyte interface. An analysis of the transient response based on the model elucidates the complex interplay between disjoining pressure, hydrodynamic forces, and surface deformations. This study also provides insight into the mechanism and process of droplet coalescence and reveals a novel, counterintuitive mechanism that can lead to film instability and collapse when an attempt is made to thicken the film by pulling the bounding mercury and mica phases apart.

Integral approach and numerical improvement to calculate carbon concentration profiles in carburising

The carbon diffusion in steel, where the carbon diffusivity varies with the carbon content, was solved with the integral methods under the third boundary condition. The variation of carbon diffusivity in steel with the carbon content was described with two different functions, linear dependence and exponential dependence. The integral approximation for both cases was improved with the numerical computation to more accurately predict the carbon profiles. The integral solution is more accurate than the formulation based on the assumption of a constant diffusivity or those based on the assumption of a constant diffusivity and/or constant carbon content at part surface. It is also more easily used in practice than the numerical method to describe the carburising process and predict the carbon content at steel surface and carbon profiles in treated layer.

Consumer perceptions of bundles and time-limited promotion deals: Do contracts matter?

Marketers use various types of deals to positively influence consumers' product evaluations. Across two experiments, we manipulated print advertisements to examine whether the commonly used deal content of both bundling and time-limited promotions affect consumers' perceived confusion, risk and value. In study 1, the influence of this content was tested in the context of a 2-year telecommunications (telco) contract. Here, consumers associated a three-item bundle with greater perceived value than a single item, but perceived value was reduced and risk heightened when it was only available for a limited time. We speculate that this is because of the long-term nature of the contract. Study 2 removed the contract restriction, examining the bundling of a video game console and game(s), again with a time-limited promotion. However, in this context, we failed to locate any interaction effects. It appears that consumers further appraise the drawbacks of a long-term telco contract when accompanied by a time-limited promotion and may perceive the switching costs for study 1 three-item telco bundle to be particularly risky. Our studies represent the first empirical investigation of the effect on consumers' perceptions of offering a bundle in conjunction with a time-limited promotion. Testing these effects in contract and no contract conditions adds to the contribution of our studies by delineating a boundary condition. From a managerial perspective, our findings are thought-provoking in respect to information integration, or how consumers process different deal content together.

Does liquidity constraints matter for Ricardian equivalence?

The paper analysis a general equilibrium model with two periods, several households and a government that has to finance some expenditures in the first period. Households may have some private information either about their type (adverse selection) or about some action levei chosen in the first period that affects the probability of certain states of nature in the second period (moral hazard). Trade of financiai assets are intermediated by a finite collection of banks. Banks objective functions are determined in equilibrium by shareholders. Due to private information it may be optimal for the banks to introduce constraints in the set of available portfolios for each household as wellas household specific asset prices. In particular, households may face distinct interest rates for holding the risk-free asset. The government finances its expenditures either by taxing households in the first period or by issuing bonds in the first period and taxing households in the second period. Taxes may be state-dependent. Suppose government policies are neutml: i) government policies do not affect the distribution of wealth across households; and ii) if the government decides to tax a household in the second period there is a portfolio available for the banks that generates the Mme payoff in each state of nature as the household taxes. Tben, Ricardian equivalence holds if and only if an appropriate boundary condition is satisfied. Moreover, at every free-entry equilibrium the boundary condition is satisfied and thus Ricardian equivalence holds. These results do not require any particular assumption on the banks' objective function. In particular, we do not assume banks to be risk neutral.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.