Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm bad for your health and well-being?

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to investigate whether screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) causes health-related quality of life to change in men or their partners. Methods: A cross-sectional case-control comparison was undertaken of men aged 65-83 years living in Perth, Western Australia, using questionnaires incorporating three validated instruments (Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36, EuroQol EQ-5D and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) as well as several independent questions about quality of life. The 2009 men who attended for ultrasound scans of the abdominal aorta completed a short prescreening questionnaire about their perception of their general health. Four hundred and ninety-eight men (157 with an AAA and 341 with a normal aorta) were sent two questionnaires for completion 12 months after screening, one for themselves and one for their partner, each being about the quality of life of the respondent. Results: Men with an AAA were more limited in performing physical activities than those with a normal aorta (t-test of means P = 0.04). After screening, men with an AAA were significantly less likely to have current pain or discomfort than those with a normal aorta (multivariate odds ratio: 0.5; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.3-0.9) and reported fewer visits to their doctor. The mean level of self-perceived general health increased for all men from before to after screening (from 63.4 to 65.4). Conclusions: Apart from physical functioning, screening was not associated with decreases in health and well-being. A high proportion of men rated their health over the year after screening as being either the same or improved, regardless of whether or not they were found to have an AAA.

The policy cycle and vernacular globalization: a case study of the creation of Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City

This article examines the policy cycle and vernacular globalization in the context of higher education reform in Vietnam. Through an analysis of the development of the Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City as part of the post-1986 reconstruction of Vietnamese higher education, the article considers the complex interrelationship between globalized policy discourses, national interests and history in Vietnam, and the specific politics of policy implementation within one institution. Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City was created through an amalgamation of a number of smaller universities, and against the backdrop of social and economic restructuring aimed at promoting industrialization and a market orientation within socialist governance. The article reveals the dynamic tension between these local and global influences on higher education policy and practice, and more specifically, the dilemmas associated with top-down policy implementation when a new organization consists of older organizations with powerful provenance and reputations. In so doing the article demonstrates the necessity to globalize policy theory.

A compact shock-assisted free-piston driver for impulse facilities

A free-piston driver that employs entropy-raising shock processes with diaphragm rupture has been constructed, which promises significant theoretical advantages over isentropic compression. Results from a range of conditions with helium and argon driver gases are reported. Significant performance gains were achieved in some test cases. Heat losses are shown to have a strong effect on driver processes. Measurements compare well with predictions from a quasi-one-dimensional numerical code.

Health technology diffusion in developing countries: a case study of CT scanners in Brazil

Background The development of products and services for health care systems is one of the most important phenomena to have occurred in the field of health care over the last 50 years. It generates significant commercial, medical and social results. Although much has been done to understand how health technologies are adopted and regulated in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the situation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we examine the institutional environment in which decisions are made regarding the adoption of expensive medical devices into the Brazilian health care system. Methods We used a case study strategy to address our research question. The empirical work relied on in-depth interviews (N = 16) with representatives of a wide range of actors and stakeholders that participate in the process of diffusion of CT (computerized tomography) scanners in Brazil, including manufacturers, health care organizations, medical specialty societies, health insurance companies, regulatory agencies and the Ministry of Health. Results The adoption of CT scanners is not determined by health policy makers or third-party payers of public and private sectors. Instead, decisions are primarily made by administrators of individual hospitals and clinics, strongly influenced by both physicians and sales representatives of the medical industry who act as change agents. Because this process is not properly regulated by public authorities, health care organizations are free to decide whether, when and how they will adopt a particular technology. Conclusions Our study identifies problems in how health care systems in LMICs adopt new, expensive medical technologies, and suggests that a set of innovative approaches and policy instruments are needed in order to balance the institutional and professional desire to practise a modern and expensive medicine in a context of health inequalities and basic health needs.

Changes in plasma free fatty acid levels in septic patients are associated with cardiac damage and reduction in heart rate variability

Free fatty acids (FFAs) have been shown to produce alteration of heart rate variability (HRV) in healthy and diabetic individuals. Changes in HRV have been described in septic patients and in those with hyperglycemia and elevated plasma FFA levels. We studied if sepsis-induced heart damage and HRV alteration are associated with plasma FFA levels in patients. Thirty-one patients with sepsis were included. The patients were divided into two groups: survivors(n = 12) and nonsurvivors (n = 19). The following associations were investigated: (a) troponin I elevation and HRV reduction and (b) clinical evolution and HRV index, plasma troponin, and plasma FFA levels. Initial measurements of C-reactive protein and gravity Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scores were similar in both groups. Overall, an increase in plasma troponin level was related to increased mortality risk. From the first day of study, the nonsurvivor group presented a reduced left ventricular stroke work systolic index and a reduced low frequency (LF) that is one of HRV indexes. The correlation coefficient for LF values and troponin was r(2) = 0.75 (P < 0.05). All patients presented elevated plasma FFA levels on the first day of the study (5.11 +/- 0.53 mg/mL), and this elevation was even greater in the nonsurvivor group compared with the survivors (6.88 +/- 0.13 vs. 3.85 +/- 0.48 mg/mL, respectively; P < 0.05). Cardiac damage was confirmed by measurement of plasma troponin I and histological analysis. Heart dysfunction was determined by left ventricular stroke work systolic index and HRV index in nonsurvivor patients. A relationship was found between plasma FFA levels, LFnu index, troponin levels, and histological changes. Plasma FFA levels emerged as possible cause of heart damage in sepsis.

(18)F-FDG PET After 2 Cycles of ABVD Predicts Event-Free Survival in Early and Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma

Our objective was to assess the prognostic value of (18)F-FDG PET after 2 cycles of chemotherapy using doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients overall and in subgroups of patients with early and advanced stages and with low and high risks according to the International Prognostic Score (IPS). Methods: One hundred fifteen patients with newly diagnosed HL were prospectively included in the study. All underwent standard ABVD therapy followed by consolidation radiotherapy in cases of bulky disease. After 2 cycles of ABVD, the patients were evaluated with PET (PET2). Prognostic analysis compared the 3-y event-free survival (EFS) rate to the PET2 results, clinical data, and IPS. Results: Of the 104 evaluated patients, 93 achieved complete remission after first-line therapy. During a median follow-up of 36 mo, relapse or disease progression was seen in 22 patients. Treatment failure was seen in 16 of the 30 PET2-positive patients and in only 6 of the 74 PET2-negative patients. PET2 was the only significant prognostic factor. The 3-y EFS was 53.4% for PET2-positive patients and 90.5% for PET2-negative ones (P < 0.001). When patients were categorized according to low or high IPS risk and according to early or advanced stage of disease, PET2 was also significantly associated with treatment outcome. Conclusion: PET2 is an accurate and independent predictor of EFS in HL. A negative interim (18)F-FDG PET result is highly predictive of treatment success in overall HL patients, as well as in subgroups with early or advanced-stage disease and with low or high IPS risk.

Increased arterial stiffness in nonobese women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) without comorbidities: one more characteristic inherent to the syndrome?

Background Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is associated with adverse metabolic effects. Some cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers are increased in women with PCOS. However, early markers of atherosclerosis are also associated with obesity and insulin resistance, which are related to PCOS. These markers may result either directly from PCOS or indirectly as a consequence of the comorbidities associated with the syndrome. Context To assess the presence of early CVD markers in young, nonobese women with PCOS. Patients Forty women with PCOS and 50 healthy women with regular menstrual cycles, matched for age and body mass index (BMI). Measurements The following CVD markers were assessed by ultrasonography: common carotid artery (CCA) stiffness index (beta), distensibility and intima-media thickness (IMT), and brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD). Inflammatory markers, including interleukin (IL)-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, homocysteine, C-reactive protein (CRP), glycaemia, lipid profile and insulin, were also assessed. Results CCA beta was higher in PCOS than in control women (3 center dot 72 +/- 0 center dot 96 vs. 3 center dot 36 +/- 0 center dot 96, P = 0 center dot 04) and CCA distensibility was lower (0 center dot 31 +/- 0 center dot 08 vs. 0 center dot 35 +/- 0 center dot 09 mmHg(-1), P = 0 center dot 02). Waist circumference, total testosterone and the Free Androgen Index (FAI) were higher in PCOS patients than in controls (78 center dot 2 +/- 10 center dot 0 vs. 71 center dot 5 +/- 7 center dot 2 cm, P = 0 center dot 001; 88 center dot 1 +/- 32 center dot 4 vs. 57 center dot 1 +/- 21 center dot 2 ng/dl, P < 0 center dot 01; 12 center dot 7 +/- 15 center dot 7%vs. 4 center dot 7 +/- 2 center dot 3%, P < 0 center dot 01, respectively), while SHBG was reduced (37 center dot 9 +/- 19 center dot 1 vs. 47 center dot 8 +/- 18 center dot 3 nmol/l, P = 0 center dot 01). The remaining variables did not differ between the groups. Conclusions Young women with PCOS exhibit changes in vascular elasticity even in the absence of classical risk factors for CVD, such as hypertension and obesity.

Ecological aspects of the free-living ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on animal trails within Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil

In a recent ecological study of the ticks on animal trails within an area of Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil, Amblyomma aureolatum, A. brasiliense, A. incisum, A. ovale and Haemaphysalis juxtakochi were found questing on the vegetation. Most of the ticks recorded by a small, man-made dam on the forest border were A. dubitatum but a few A. brasiliense and A. cajennense, one A. incisum and one H. juxtakochi were also found. The seasonal activity of the ticks indicated that A. incisum and A. brasiliense had one generation/year. On the animal trails, most tick species and stages quested on the vegetation at a height of 30-40 cm above ground level. The questing larvae and adults of A. incisum tended to be found higher, however, with the greatest numbers recorded 40-50 cm (larvae) or 60-70 cm (adults) above ground level. Most of the adult ticks (81.1% -100%), nymphs (78.6%-100%) and larval clusters (100%) found on a forest trail remained questing at the same location over a 24-h period. Carbon-dioxide traps in the rainforest attracted, 50% of the ticks observed questing on the nearby vegetation and, curiously, the CO(2) traps set deep in the forest attracted far fewer ticks than similar traps set by the dam. The ecological relationships between the ticks, their hosts and the rainforest environment are discussed.

Genotyping of Cryptosporidium spp. from free-living wild birds from Brazil

In wild and domestic birds, cryptosporidiosis is often associated with infections by Cryptosporidium galli, Cryptosporidium baileyi and Cryptosporidium meleagridis. In addition to these species, a number of avian Cryptosporidium species yet to be fully characterized are commonly found among exotic and wild avian isolates. The present study aimed to detect and identify samples of Cryptosporidium spp. from free-living wild birds, in order to contribute to the knowledge of the variability of this parasite in the free-living population of Brazil. Stool samples were collected from 242 birds, with the following proportions of individuals: 50 Emberizidae (20.7%), 112 Psittacidae (46.3%), 44 Cardinalidae (18.2%), 12 Turdidae (5.0%), eight Ramphastidae (3.3%), seven Icteridae (2.9%), three Estrilididae (1.2%), two Contigidae (0.8%), two Thraupidae (0.8%) and two Fringilidae (0.8%). Among the 242 fecal samples from wild birds, 16(6.6%) were positive for the presence of oocysts of Cryptosporidium. Molecular characterization of the 16 samples of Cryptosporidium, were performed with phylogenetic reconstructions employing 292 positions of 18S rDNA. None of the samples of birds was characterized as C meleagridis. C gall was identified in one rufous-bellied thrush (Turdus rufiventris), five green-winged saltators (Saltator similis), one slate-coloured seedeater (Sporophila schistacea), one goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) and three saffron finches (Sicalis flaveola). One goldfinch isolate, one buff-fronted seedeater (Sporophila frontalis), one red-cowled cardinal (Paroaria dominicana) and one other saffron finch (S. flaveola) were identified as C. baileyi. Avian genotype II was found in an isolate from a white-eyed parakeet (Aratinga leucophthalma). Clinical symptoms of cryptosporidiosis in birds have already been described and the number of wild birds which were shedding parasites was high. Therefore, further epidemiological research and disease surveillance of birds in the wild is warranted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SEROLOGIC SURVEY FOR SELECTED INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN FREE-RANGING BRAZILIAN TAPIRS (TAPIRUS TERRESTRIS) IN THE CERRADO OF CENTRAL BRAZIL

From September 2000 to January 2002, a serologic survey was conducted in a population of free-ranging Brazilian tapirs (Tapirus terrestris) inhabiting Emas National Park and surrounding areas in Goias state. central Brazil, as part of an ecologic study. Ten tapirs were immobilized with a tiletamine-zolazepam combination. and blood samples were collected. All sera were negative for Leptospira spp.. Brucella abortus, and equine infectious anemia; and one of 10 animals was positive for Toxoplasma goudii. This report represents the first serologic survey for selected infectious diseases in a free-ranging population or Brazilians tapirs in central Brazil.

An analysis of accommodation needs of adults with an intellectual disability in Toowoomba and surrounding areas

Introduction The objective of this study was to analyse the accommodation needs of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years in Toowoomba and contiguous shires. In 2004, a group of carers established Toowoomba Intellectual Disability Support Association (TIDSA) to address the issue of the lack of supported accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 and the concerns of ageing carers. The Centre for Rural and Remote Area Health (CRRAH) was engaged by TIDSA to ascertain this need and undertook a research project funded by the Queensland Gambling Community Benefit Fund. While data specifically relating to people with intellectual disability and their carers are difficult to obtain, the Australian Bureau of Statistics report that carers of people with a disability are more likely to be female and at least 65 years of age. Projections by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) show that disability rates are increasing and carer rates are decreasing. Thus the problem of appropriate support to the increasing number of ageing carers and those who they care for will be a major challenge to policy makers and is an issue of immediate concern. In general, what was once the norm of accommodating people with intellectual disability in large institutions is now changing to accommodating into community-based residences (Annison, 2000; Young, Ashman, Sigafoos, & Grevell, 2001). However, in Toowoomba and contiguous shires, TIDSA have noted that the availability of suitable accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years is declining with no new options available in an environment of increasing demand. Most effort seemed to be directed towards crisis provision. Method This study employed two phases of data gathering, the first being the distribution of a questionnaire through local service providers and upon individual request to the carers of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18. The questionnaire comprised of Likert-type items intended to measure various aspects of current and future accommodation issues. Most questions were followed with space for free-response comments to provide the opportunity for carers to further clarify and expand on their responses. The second phase comprised semi-structured interviews conducted with ten carers and ten people with intellectual disability who had participated in the Phase One questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and subjected to content analysis where major themes were explored. Results Age and gender Carer participants in this study totalled 150. The mean age of these carers was 61.5 years and ranged from 40 – 91 years. Females comprised 78% of the sample (mean age = 61.49; range from 40-91) and 22% were male (mean age = 61.7 range from 43-81). The mean age of people with intellectual disability in our study was 37.2 years ranging from 18 – 79 years with 40% female (mean age = 39.5; range from 19-79) and 60% male (mean age = 35.6; range from 18-59). The average age of carers caring for a person over the age of 18 who is living at home is 61 years. The average age of the carer who cares for a person who is living away from home is 62 years. The overall age range of both these groups of carers is between 40 and 81 years. The oldest group of carers (mean age = 70 years) were those where the person with intellectual disability lives away from home in a large residential facility. Almost one quarter of people with an intellectual disability who currently live at home is cared for by one primary carer and this is almost exclusively a parent.

A servicing strategy for items sold under warranty

When repairable items sold under warranty fail, the rectification action taken by the manufacturer can be either a repair or a replacement, In this paper a new repair-replacement strategy is proposed for the manufacturer when the items are sold with a non-renewing free replacement warranty policy. The strategy involves splitting the warranty period into two intervals where only repairs are carried out, separated by a third interval with at most one replacement.

Noise-free scattering of the quantized electromagnetic field from a dispersive linear dielectric

We study the scattering of the quantized electromagnetic field from a linear, dispersive dielectric using the scattering formalism for quantum fields. The medium is modeled as a collection of harmonic oscillators with a number of distinct resonance frequencies. This model corresponds to the Sellmeir expansion, which is widely used to describe experimental data for real dispersive media. The integral equation for the interpolating field in terms of the in field is solved and the solution used to find the out field. The relation between the ill and out creation and annihilation operators is found that allows one to calculate the S matrix for this system. In this model, we find that there are absorption bands, but the input-output relations are completely unitary. No additional quantum-noise terms are required.

Volunteerism and government policy in infant welfare in Queensland, Australia, 1931-1961: Working round the ban

Whereas in other Australian states voluntary organizations set up and managed infant health clinics and state governments only later became involved, in order to resolve conflicts or raise standards, Queensland began with government control. From the start, these well-baby clinics were established and maintained by the state government, whose policy precluded any involvement by the voluntary sector in baby clinic management or other aspects of the work of the Maternal and Child Welfare section of the Department of Health and Home Affairs. One organization, the Mothercraft Association of Queensland, attempted to contribute to maternal-infant welfare in the years 1931-1961. This article will discuss how the association worked in a way that was complementary to the government's work, and non-confrontationist, to achieve some of its goals.