Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Dietary fish oil is antihypertrophic but does not enhance postischemic myocardial function in female mice.

Clinically and experimentally, a case for omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) cardioprotection in females has not been clearly established. The goal of this study was to investigate whether dietary omega-3 PUFA supplementation could provide ischemic protection in female mice with an underlying genetic predisposition to cardiac hypertrophy. Mature female transgenic mice (TG) with cardiac-specific overexpression of angiotensinogen that develop normotensive cardiac hypertrophy and littermate wild-type (WT) mice were fed a fish oil-derived diet (FO) or PUFA-matched control diet (CTR) for 4 wk. Myocardial membrane lipids, ex vivo cardiac performance (intraventricular balloon) after global no-flow ischemia and reperfusion (15/30 min), and reperfusion arrhythmia incidence were assessed. FO diet suppressed cardiac growth by 5% and 10% in WT and TG, respectively (P < 0.001). The extent of mechanical recovery [rate-pressure product (RPP) = beats/min x mmHg] of FO-fed WT and TG hearts was similar (50 +/- 7% vs. 45 +/- 12%, 30 min reperfusion), and this was not significantly different from CTR-fed WT or TG. To evaluate whether systemic estrogen was masking a protective effect of the FO diet, the responses of ovariectomized (OVX) WT and TG mice to FO dietary intervention were assessed. The extent of mechanical recovery of FO-fed OVX WT and TG (RPP, 50 +/- 4% vs. 64 +/- 8%) was not enhanced compared with CTR-fed mice (RPP, 60 +/- 11% vs. 80 +/- 8%, P = 0.335). Dietary FO did not suppress the incidence of reperfusion arrhythmias in WT or TG hearts (ovary-intact mice or OVX). Our findings indicate a lack of cardioprotective effect of dietary FO in females, determined by assessment of mechanical and arrhythmic activity postischemia in a murine ex vivo heart model.

Antibacterial activity of Ocimum gratissimum L. essential oil

The essential oil (EO) of Ocimum gratissimum inhibited Staphylococcus aureus at a concentration of 0.75 mg/ml. The minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for Shigella flexineri, Salmonella enteritidis, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella sp., and Proteus mirabilis were at concentrations ranging from 3 to 12 mg/ml. The endpoint was not reached for Pseudomonas aeruginosa (>=24 mg/ml). The MICs of the reference drugs used in this study were similar to those presented in other reports. The minimum bactericidal concentration of EO was within a twofold dilution of the MIC for this organism. The compound that showed antibacterial activity in the EO of O. gratissimum was identified as eugenol and structural findings were further supported by gas chromatography/mass spectra retention time data. The structure was supported by spectroscopic methods.

Blunting the response to endotoxin in healthy subjects: effects of various doses of intravenous fish oil.

To test the dose response effect of infused fish oil (FO) rich in n-3 PUFAs on the inflammatory response to endotoxin (LPS) and on membrane incorporation of fatty acids in healthy subjects. Prospective, sequential investigation comparing three different FO doses. Three groups of male subjects aged 26.8 +/- 3.2 years (BMI 22.5 +/- 2.1). One of three FO doses (Omegaven10%) as a slow infusion before LPS: 0.5 g/kg 1 day before LPS, 0.2 g/kg 1 day before, or 0.2 g/kg 2 h before. Temperature, hemodynamic variables, indirect calorimetry and blood samples (TNF-alpha, stress hormones) were collected. After LPS temperature, ACTH and TNF-alpha concentrations increased in the three groups: the responses were significantly blunted (p < 0.0001) compared with the control group of the Pluess et al. trial. Cortisol was unchanged. Lowest plasma ACTH, TNF-alpha and temperature AUC values were observed after a single 0.2 g/kg dose of FO. EPA incorporation into platelet membranes was dose-dependent. Having previously shown that the response to LPS was reproducible, this study shows that three FO doses blunted it to various degrees. The 0.2 g/kg perfusion immediately before LPS was the most efficient in blunting the responses, suggesting LPS capture in addition to the systemic and membrane effects.

Elderly Return Migration from Britain to Ireland - A Preliminary Study

The National Council for the Elderly commissioned the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, in 1994, to undertake research and prepare a preliminary report for the Council, exploring the recent scale of, and background to, return migration to the Republic of Ireland amongst elderly Irish-born people living in Britain Download the Report here

Larvicidal activity of the essential oil from Lippia sidoides cham. against Aedes aegypti linn

The aim of this work was to study the larvicidal activity of Lippia sidoides essential oil against Aedes aegypti larvae. The essential oil and its hydrolate (saturated solution of essential oil in water) were obtained by vapor extraction and their chemical composition determined by GL-chromatography coupled to mass spectroscopy. Bioassays were run with the essential oil, pure and diluted hydrolate and with their main constituents thymol and carvacrol. The results obtained showed that L. sidoides essential oil and its hydrolate have larvicidal action against the mosquito A. aegypti, causing an almost instantaneous mortality. Thymol, an alkylated phenol derivative and one of the major components of L. sidoides essential oil, was identified as the active principle responsible for the larvicidal action, causing 100% larval mortality at the lowest tested concentration of 0.017% (w/v). These results suggest that the essential oil of L. sidoides is promising as larvicide against A. aegypti and could be useful in the search of newer, more selective, and biodegradable larvicidal natural compounds to be used in official combat programs and at home.

Activity of oil-formulated Beauveria bassiana against Triatoma sordida in peridomestic areas in central Brazil

Field tests were carried out during the rainy season of 2001/2002 in São Luís de Montes Belos, Goiás, Brazil, to evaluate the potential of the entomopathogenic fungus, Beauveria bassiana, against peridomestic Triatoma sordida. An oil-water formulation of the isolate CG 14 (Embrapa) was applied in triatomine infested hen houses of four farms at a final concentration of 10(6) conidia/cm². Numbers of T. sordida decreased over the next 25 days, after application of the fungus, and B. bassiana developed on dead insects in one hen house. A high number of B. bassiana colonies was detected in substrates collected in treated hen houses 24 h after application of CG 14. In the following three months the presenceof B. bassiana declined to values found before treatment.

Decoupled post-glacial history in mutualistic plant-insect interactions: insights from the yellow loosestrife (Lysimachia vulgaris) and its associated oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and M-fulvipes)

AimWe take a comparative phylogeographical approach to assess whether three species involved in a specialized oil-rewarding pollination system (i.e. Lysimachia vulgaris and two oil-collecting bees within the genus Macropis) show congruent phylogeographical trajectories during post-glacial colonization processes. Our working hypothesis is that within specialized mutualistic interactions, where each species relies on the co-occurrence of the other for survival and/or reproduction, partners are expected to show congruent evolutionary trajectories, because they are likely to have followed parallel migration routes and to have shared glacial refugia. LocationWestern Palaearctic. MethodsOur analysis relies on the extensive sampling of 104 Western Palaearctic populations (totalling 434, 159 and 74 specimens of Lysimachiavulgaris, Macropiseuropaea and Macropisfulvipes, respectively), genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism. Based on this, we evaluated the regional genetic diversity (Shannon diversity and allele rarity index) and genetic structure (assessed using structure, population networks, isolation-by-distance and spatial autocorrelation metrics) of each species. Finally, we compared the general phylogeographical patterns obtained. ResultsContrary to our expectations, the analyses revealed phylogeographical signals suggesting that the investigated organisms demonstrate independent post-glacial trajectories as well as distinct contemporaneous demographic parameters, despite their mutualistic interaction. Main conclusionsThe mutualistic partners investigated here are likely to be experiencing distinct and independent evolutionary dynamics because of their contrasting life-history traits (e.g. dispersal abilities), as well as distinct hubs and migration routes. Such conditions would prevent and/or erase any signature of co-structuring of lineages in space and time. As a result, the lack of phylogeographical congruence driven by differences in life-history traits might have arisen irrespective of the three species having shared similar Pleistocene glacial refugia.

Longitudinal evaluation of repellent activity of Ocimum gratissimum (Labiatae) volatile oil against Simulium damnosum

To determine the repellent activity of Ocimum gratissimum volatile oil against Simulium damnosum (blackflies), a 12 month (January-December 2003) field study was conducted in three onchocerciasis endemic communities (Idomido, Obio camp, and Ikot Adaha) in Ini Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. The result revealed that topical application of 20% (v/v) concentration of the oil with liquid paraffin as a base, reduced the biting rate of S. damnosum by 90.2, 81.6, and 79.7%, in Idomido, Obiocamp, and Ikot Adaha respectively. The oil gave protection against the bite of S. damnosum for at least 3 h. A total of 710 adults S. damnosum were caught by individuals treated with Ocimum oil, as against 4296 caught by the control group. When the flies caught by the treated individuals were dissected none of them was infected with microfilariae of Onchocerca volvulus. Human-vector contact and onchocerciasis transmission could be reduced by the topical application of the volatile oil during the peak biting periods of the vector.

The return of increased blood pressure after discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment is associated with an impaired post-ischemic skin blood flow response.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the post-ischemic skin blood flow response after withdrawal of antihypertensive therapy in hypertensive patients with normal blood pressure during treatment. DESIGN AND METHODS: Twenty hypertensive patients (group A) with a normal clinic blood pressure (<140/ 90 mmHg) receiving antihypertensive treatment (any monotherapy; one pill per day for at least 6 months) had their treatment discontinued. Before medication withdrawal and 2, 4, 12 and 24 weeks thereafter, the following measurements were made: clinic blood pressure, home blood pressure (three times per week, morning and evening) and skin blood flow response to a 5 min forearm arterial occlusion (using laser Doppler flowmetry). The patients were asked to perform an ambulatory blood pressure recording at any time if home blood pressure was > or =160/95 mmHg on two consecutive days, and treatment was initiated again, after determination of the skin hyperemic response, if daytime ambulatory blood pressure was > or =140/90 mmHg. The same studies were performed in 20 additional hypertensive individuals in whom antihypertensive treatment was not withdrawn (group B). The allocation of patients to groups A and B was random. RESULTS: The data fom 18 patients in group A who adhered strictly to the procedure were available for analysis. Seven of them had to start treatment again within the first 4 weeks of follow-up; four additional patients started treatment again during the next 8 weeks (group A1). The seven other patients remained untreated (group A2). The skin hyperemic response decreased significantly in patients in group A1 and returned to baseline values at the end of the study, when there were again receiving antihypertensive treatment. In patients in group A2 a significant attenuation of the hyperemic response was also observed. This impaired response was present even at the end of the 6 month follow-up, at which time the patients were still untreated but exhibited a significantly greater blood pressure than before drug discontinuation. The hyperemic response of patients who did not stop treatment (group B) did not change during the course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a decrease in the postischemic skin blood flow response after withdrawal of antihypertensive treatment in hypertensive patients. This impaired response may be due to the development of endothelial dysfunction, vascular remodeling, or both, and might contribute to the return of blood pressure to hypertensive values after withdrawal of antihypertensive therapy.

Chemistry, cytotoxicity and antileishmanial activity of the essential oil from Piper auritum

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important parasitic infections, but current treatments are unsatisfactory due to their toxicity, cost and resistance. Therefore, the development of new antileishmanial compounds is imperative. Many people who live in endemic areas use plants as an alternative to treat the disease. In this paper, we characterised the essential oil from Piper auritum, evaluated its cytotoxicity and determined its antileishmanial activity. The chromatogram obtained by gas chromatography revealed 60 peaks and we found that safrole was the most abundant compound, composing 87% of the oil. The oil was active against the promastigotes of Leishmania major, Leishmania mexicana, Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania donovani with a favourable selectivity index against peritoneal macrophages from BALB/c mice. The Piper-oil inhibited the growing of intracellular amastigotes of L. donovani with an IC50 value of 22.3 ± 1.8 μg/mL. This study demonstrates the usefulness of the essential oils as a promising alternative to treat leishmaniasis.

Minor compounds of olive oil have postprandial anti-inflammatory effects

High postprandial levels of TAG may further induce endothelial dysfunction and inflammation in subjects with high fasting levels of TAG, an effect that seems to be related to oxidative stress. The present study investigated whether minor compounds of olive oil with antioxidant activity decrease postprandial levels of soluble isoforms of intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (sVCAM-1), as surrogate markers of vascular inflammation, after a high-fat meal. A randomized crossover and blind trial on fourteen healthy and fourteen hypertriacylglycerolaemic subjects was performed. The study involved a 1-week adaptation lead-in period on a National Cholesterol Education Program Step I diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) containing 1125 mg polyphenols/kg and 350 mg tocopherols/kg, or refined olive oil (ROO) with no polyphenols or tocopherols. After a 12 h fast, the participants ate a high-fat meal enriched in EVOO or ROO (50 g/m2 body surface area), which on average provided 3700 kJ energy with a macronutrient profile of 72% fat, 22% carbohydrate and 6% protein. Blood samples drawn hourly over the following 8 h demonstrated a similar postprandial TAG response for both EVOO and ROO meals. However, in both healthy and hypertriacylglycerolaemic subjects the net incremental area under the curve for sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 were significantly lower after the EVOO meal. In conclusion,the consumption of EVOO with a high content of minor antioxidant compounds may have postprandial anti-inflammatory protective effects.