Pollen and grain size records in abyssal sediments of the northwest Pacific Ocean as proxies of Plio-Pleistocene climate change /

A distinctive period of global change occurred during the PUocene between the warm Miocene and subsequent Quaternary cooling. Samples from Ocean Drilling Project Site 11 79 (-5586 mbsl, 41°4'N, 159°57'E), Site 881 (-5765 mbsl, 47°6.133'N, 161°29.490'E) and Site 882 (-3255 mbsl, 50°22'N, 167°36'E) were studied to determine the magnitude and composition ofterrigenous flux to the western mid-latitude North Pacific and its relation to climate change in East Asia since the mid-Pliocene. Dust-sized particles (including pollen), sourced from the arid regions and loess plateaus in East Asia are entrained by prevailing westerly winds and transported to the midlatitude northwest North Pacific Ocean. This is recorded by peaks in the total concentration of pollen and spores, as well as the mean grain size of allochthonous and autochthonous silicate material in abyssal marine sediments. Aridification of the Asian interior due to the phased uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau created the modem East Asian Monsoon system dominated by a strengthening of the winter monsoon. The winter monsoon is further enhanced during glacials due to the expansion of desert and steppe environments at the expense ofwoodlands and forests recorded by the composition of palynological assemblages. The late Pliocene-Pleistocene glacials at ODP Sites 1 179, 881, and 882 are characterized by increases in grain size, magnetic susceptibility, pollen and spore concentrations around 3.5-3.3, 2.6-2.4, 1.7-1.6, and 0.9-0.7 Ma (ages based on magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic datums). The peaks during these times are relatively rich in pollen taxa derived primarily from steppe and boreal vegetation zones, recording cool, dry climates. The overall size increase of sediment and abundance of terrestrial palynomorphs record enhanced wind strength. The increase in magnitude of pollen and spore concentrations as well as grain size record global cooling and Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The peaks in grain size as well as pollen and spore abundance in marine sediments correlate with the mean grain size of loess in East Asia, consistent with the deflation of unarmoured surfaces during glacials. The transport of limiting nutrients to marine environments enhanced sea surface productivity and increased the rate of sediment accumulation.

DINOFLAGELLATE CYSTS FROM THE LATEST MIOCENE THROUGH MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, ODP SITE 1000: BIOSTRATIGRAPHY, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, AND SHOALING OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN SEAWAY

This is the first detailed study of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) and acritarchs for the latest Miocene–Middle Pleistocene of Ocean Drilling Program Site 1000 in the Caribbean Sea. Well-preserved and moderately diverse dinocysts and other palynomorphs reflect the interplay between neritic (carbonate-platform sourced) and oceanic species. The dinocyst biostratigraphy is tied to an existing marine isotope stratigraphy for the interval 5.5–2.2 Ma. For the interval 5.5–3.8 Ma, palynological samples are coupled to published sea-surface temperature estimates based on planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca. Changes in dinocyst assemblage composition are noted at ca. 4.6 Ma when shoaling of the Central American Seaway caused a temperature rise in the Caribbean, ca. 3.8–3.6 Ma, during the cold Marine Isotope Stage M2 when pronounced warming occurred, at ca. 2.7 Ma where possible weak cooling may reflect the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, and in the Middle Pleistocene presumably reflecting global cooling and sea-level fall.

Phylogénie moléculaire du genre Salix L. (Salicaceae) en Amérique du Nord

La culture de saules (Salix sp.) est une pratique courante en Europe et en Amérique du Nord pour produire de la biomasse végétale. Cependant, le développement d’outils moléculaires est très récent. De plus, la phylogénie des saules est incomplète. Il y a un manque d’information pour les programmes de sélection d'espèces indigènes et pour la compréhension de l’évolution du genre. Le genre Salix inclut 500 espèces réparties principalement dans les régions tempérées et boréo-arctique de l’hémisphère nord. Nous avons obtenu l’ensemble des espèces retrouvées naturellement en Amérique (121 indigènes et introduites). Dans un premier temps, nous avons développé de nouveaux outils moléculaires et méthodes : extraction d’ADN, marqueurs microsatellites et gènes nucléaires. Puis, nous avons séquencé deux gènes chloroplastiques (matK et rbcL) et la région ITS. Les analyses phylogénétiques ont été réalisées selon trois approches : parcimonie, maximum de vraisemblance et Bayésienne. L’arbre d’espèces obtenu a un fort support et divise le genre Salix en deux sous-genres, Salix et Vetrix. Seize espèces ont une position ambiguë. La diversité génétique du sous-genre Vetrix est plus faible. Une phylogénie moléculaire complète a été établie pour les espèces américaines. D’autres analyses et marqueurs sont nécessaires pour déterminer les relations phylogénétiques entre certaines espèces. Nous affirmons que le genre Salix est divisé en deux clades.

Relevé spectroscopique et étude des propriétés physiques des étoiles naines blanches à moins de 40 parsecs du Soleil

Les étoiles naines blanches représentent la fin de l’évolution de 97% des étoiles de notre galaxie, dont notre Soleil. L’étude des propriétés globales de ces étoiles (distribution en température, distribution de masse, fonction de luminosité, etc.) requiert l’élaboration d’ensembles statistiquement complets et bien définis. Bien que plusieurs relevés d’étoiles naines blanches existent dans la littérature, la plupart de ceux-ci souffrent de biais statistiques importants pour ce genre d’analyse. L’échantillon le plus représentatif de la population d’étoiles naines blanches demeure à ce jour celui défini dans un volume complet, restreint à l’environnement immédiat du Soleil, soit à une distance de 20 pc (∼ 65 années-lumière) de celui-ci. Malheureusement, comme les naines blanches sont des étoiles intrinsèquement peu lumineuses, cet échantillon ne contient que ∼ 130 objets, compromettant ainsi toute étude statistique significative. Le but de notre étude est de recenser la population d’étoiles naines blanches dans le voisinage solaire a une distance de 40 pc, soit un volume huit fois plus grand. Nous avons ainsi entrepris de répertorier toutes les étoiles naines blanches à moins de 40 pc du Soleil à partir de SUPERBLINK, un vaste catalogue contenant le mouvement propre et les données photométriques de plus de 2 millions d’étoiles. Notre approche est basée sur la méthode des mouvements propres réduits qui permet d’isoler les étoiles naines blanches des autres populations stellaires. Les distances de toutes les candidates naines blanches sont estimées à l’aide de relations couleur-magnitude théoriques afin d’identifier les objets se situant à moins de 40 pc du Soleil, dans l’hémisphère nord. La confirmation spectroscopique du statut de naine blanche de nos ∼ 1100 candidates a ensuite requis 15 missions d’observations astronomiques sur trois grands télescopes à Kitt Peak en Arizona, ainsi qu’une soixantaine d’heures allouées sur les télescopes de 8 m des observatoires Gemini Nord et Sud. Nous avons ainsi découvert 322 nouvelles étoiles naines blanches de plusieurs types spectraux différents, dont 173 sont à moins de 40 pc, soit une augmentation de 40% du nombre de naines blanches connues à l’intérieur de ce volume. Parmi ces nouvelles naines blanches, 4 se trouvent probablement à moins de 20 pc du Soleil. De plus, nous démontrons que notre technique est très efficace pour identifier les étoiles naines blanches dans la région peuplée du plan de la Galaxie. Nous présentons ensuite une analyse spectroscopique et photométrique détaillée de notre échantillon à l’aide de modèles d’atmosphère afin de déterminer les propriétés physiques de ces étoiles, notamment la température, la gravité de surface et la composition chimique. Notre analyse statistique de ces propriétés, basée sur un échantillon presque trois fois plus grand que celui à 20 pc, révèle que nous avons identifié avec succès les étoiles les plus massives, et donc les moins lumineuses, de cette population qui sont souvent absentes de la plupart des relevés publiés. Nous avons également identifié plusieurs naines blanches très froides, et donc potentiellement très vieilles, qui nous permettent de mieux définir le côté froid de la fonction de luminosité, et éventuellement l’âge du disque de la Galaxie. Finalement, nous avons aussi découvert plusieurs objets d’intérêt astrophysique, dont deux nouvelles étoiles naines blanches variables de type ZZ Ceti, plusieurs naines blanches magnétiques, ainsi que de nombreux systèmes binaires non résolus.

Phylogénie et biogéographie du genre Bauhinia s.l. (Leguminosae)

Bauhinia s.l. est le plus vaste genre de la tribu des Cercideae (Ceasalpinioideae, Leguminoseae), avec plus de 300 espèces. Il présente une distribution pantropicale et une grande variabilité morphologique. Ces deux caractéristiques ont limité les études taxonomiques sur le genre complet, résultant en plusieurs études taxonomiques de certains groupes seulement. En 1987, Wunderlin et al. proposent une vaste révision taxonomique de la tribu des Cercideae, basée sur des données morphologiques, et divisent le genre Bauhinia en quatre sous-genres. En 2005, Lewis et Forest publient une nouvelle classification préliminaire basée sur des données moléculaires, mais sur un échantillonnage taxonomique restreint. Leurs conclusions remettent en question le monophylétisme du genre Bauhinia et suggèrent plutôt la reconnaissance de huit genres au sein du grade Bauhinia s.l. Afin de vérifier les hypothèses de Lewis et Forest, et obtenir une vision plus claire de l’histroire de Bauhinia s.l., nous avons séquencé deux régions chloroplastiques (trnL-trnF et matK-trnK) et deux régions nucléaires (Leafy et Legcyc) pour un vaste échantillonnage représentatif des Cercideae. Une première phylogénie de la tribu a tout d’abord été réalisée à partir des séquences de trnL-trnF seulement et a confirmé le non-monoplylétisme de Bauhinia s.l., avec l’inclusion du genre Brenierea, traditionnellement reconnu comme genre frère de Bauhinia s.l. Afin de ne pas limiter notre vision de l’histoire évolutive des Cercideae à un seul type de données moléculaires et à une seule région, une nouvelle série d’analyse a été effectuée, incluant toutes les séquences chloroplastiques et nucléaires. Une phylogénie individuelle a été reconstruite pour chacune des régions du génome, et un arbre d’espèce ainsi qu’un arbre de supermatrice ont été reconstruits. Bien que certaines contradictions apparaissent entre les phylogénies, les grandes lignes de l’histoire des Cercideae ont été résolues. Bauhinia s.l. est divisée en deux lignées : les groupes Phanera et Bauhinia. Le groupe Bauhinia est constitué des genres Bauhinia s.s., Piliostigma et Brenierea. Le groupe Phanera est constitué des genres Gigasiphon, Tylosema, Lysiphyllum, Barklya, Phanera et Schnella. Les genres Cercis, Adenolobus et Griffonia sont les groupes-frères du clade Bauhinia s.l. Au minimum un événement de duplication de Legcyc a été mis en évidence pour la totalité de la tribu des Cercideae, excepté Cercis, mais plusieurs évènements sont suggérés à la fois par Legcyc et Leafy. Finalement, la datation et la reconstruction des aires ancestrales de la tribu ont été effectuées. La tribu est datée de 49,7 Ma et est originaire des régions tempérées de l’hémisphère nord, probablement autour de la mer de Thétys. La tribu s’est ensuite dispersée vers les régions tropicales sèches de l’Afrique, où la séparation des groupes Bauhinia et Phanera a eu lieu. Ces deux groupes se sont ensuite dispersés en parallèle vers l’Asie du sud-est au début du Miocène. À la même période, une dispersion depuis l’Afrique de Bauhinia s.s. a permis la diversification des espèces américaines de ce genre, alors que le genre Schnella (seul genre américain du groupe Phanera) est passé par l’Australie afin de rejoindre le continent américain. Cette dispersion vers l’Australie sera également à l’origine des genres Lysiphyllum et Barklya

Southern Hemispheric Features and their Teleconnection with Indian Summer Monsoon

This thesis entitled southern hemispheric features and their Teleconnection with indian summer monsoon.Southern hemisphere is entirely distinct from the northern hemisphere in many aspects, which is well reflected in atmospheric and oceanic properties.The thesis consists of eight chapters, in which the first chapter contains an overview of southern hemisphere. In this chapter, variability in southern hemisphere is described along with Indian summer monsoon and its teleconnection. The different types of data sets used and various methodologies adopted in the present thesis were described in Chapter 2. The period of climate shift and the magnitude of anomalies after the climate shift, which extended from troposphere to stratopause level, were investigated in detail and presented in chapter 3. Chapter 4 depicts the recent trend and variability in southern stratosphere. The higher order variability during various months and the frequency of extremity is included in this chapter.Climatology of divergence and convergence after the documented shift is reported in chapter 5.Southern extratropical connection to Indian summer monsoon through the modulation of SAM is presented in Chapter 6.Chapter 7 deals with the modulation of SAM‐Monsoon link through North Atlantic Oscillation.

Local Hadley circulation over the Asian monsoon region associated with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation

The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), a major interannual variation phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific region, is the result of strong ocean-atmosphere coupling over the Asian-Australian monsoon area. Along with other meteorological and oceanographic parameters, the tropical circulation also exhibits interannual oscillations. Even though the TBO is the result of strong air–sea interaction, the circulation cells during TBO years are, as yet, not well understood. In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the interannual variability of the mean meridional circulation and local monsoon circulation over south Asia in connection with the TBO. The stream function computed from the zonal mean meridional wind component of NCEP=NCAR reanalysis data for the years 1950–2003 is used to represent the meanmeridional circulation. Mean meridional mass transport in the topics reverses from a weak monsoon to a strong monsoon in the presence of ENSO, but in normal TBO yearsmean transport remains weak across the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional temperature gradient, which drives the mean meridional circulation, also shows no reversal during the normal TBO cycle. The local Hadley circulation over the monsoon area follows the TBO cycle with anomalous ascent (descent) in strong (weak) monsoon years. During normal TBO years, the Equatorial region and Indian monsoon areas exhibit opposite local Hadley circulation anomalies

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal

For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.

Global observations and forecast skill

The impact of selected observing systems on forecast skill is explored using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40) system. Analyses have been produced for a surface-based observing system typical of the period prior to 1945/1950, a terrestrial-based observing system typical of the period 1950-1979 and a satellite-based observing system consisting of surface pressure and satellite observations. Global prediction experiments have been undertaken using these analyses as initial states, and which are available every 6 h, for the boreal winters of 1990/1991 and 2000/2001 and the summer of 2000, using a more recent version of the ECMWF model. The results show that for 500-hPa geopotential height, as a representative field, the terrestrial system in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is only slightly inferior to the control system, which makes use of all observations for the analysis, and is also more accurate than the satellite system. There are indications that the skill of the terrestrial system worsens slightly and the satellite system improves somewhat between 1990/1991 and 2000/2001. The forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by the satellite information and this dominance is larger in the latter period. The overall skill is only slightly worse than that of the Northern Hemisphere. In the tropics (20 degrees S-20 degrees N), using the wind at 850 and 250 hPa as representative fields, the information content in the terrestrial and satellite systems is almost equal and complementary. The surface-based system has very limited skill restricted to the lower troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Predictability calculations show a potential for a further increase in predictive skill of 1-2 d in the extratropics of both hemispheres, but a potential for a major improvement of many days in the tropics. As well as the Eulerian perspective of predictability, the storm tracks have been calculated from all experiments and validated for the extratropics to provide a Lagrangian perspective.

Storm tracks and climate change

Extratropical and tropical transient storm tracks are investigated from the perspective of feature tracking in the ECHAM5 coupled climate model for the current and a future climate scenario. The atmosphere-only part of the model, forced by observed boundary conditions, produces results that agree well with analyses from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), including the distribution of storms as a function of maximum intensity. This provides the authors with confidence in the use of the model for the climate change experiments. The statistical distribution of storm intensities is virtually preserved under climate change using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario until the end of this century. There are no indications in this study of more intense storms in the future climate, either in the Tropics or extratropics, but rather a minor reduction in the number of weaker storms. However, significant changes occur on a regional basis in the location and intensity of storm tracks. There is a clear poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere with consequences of reduced precipitation for several areas, including southern Australia. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less distinct, but there are also indications of a poleward shift, a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track, and a strengthening of the storm track north of the British Isles. The tropical storm tracks undergo considerable changes including a weakening in the Atlantic sector and a strengthening and equatorward shift in the eastern Pacific. It is suggested that some of the changes, in particular the tropical ones, are due to an SST warming maximum in the eastern Pacific. The shift in the extratropical storm tracks is shown to be associated with changes in the zonal SST gradient in particular for the Southern Hemisphere.

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP

The aim of this paper is essentially twofold: first, to describe the use of spherical nonparametric estimators for determining statistical diagnostic fields from ensembles of feature tracks on a global domain, and second, to report the application of these techniques to data derived from a modern general circulation model. New spherical kernel functions are introduced that are more efficiently computed than the traditional exponential kernels. The data-driven techniques of cross-validation to determine the amount elf smoothing objectively, and adaptive smoothing to vary the smoothing locally, are also considered. Also introduced are techniques for combining seasonal statistical distributions to produce longer-term statistical distributions. Although all calculations are performed globally, only the results for the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January, February) and Southern Hemisphere winter (June, July, August) cyclonic activity are presented, discussed, and compared with previous studies. Overall, results for the two hemispheric winters are in good agreement with previous studies, both for model-based studies and observational studies.

A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves

Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.

The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast.