Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Grass Pollen Counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the South-West and Turku in the North-East, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (p<0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)

Sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis) ecology and management in the North Atlantic

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências do Mar, especialidade em Ecologia Marinha.

Critical reappraisal of Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic Central and North Atlantic, Caribbean and Mediterranean evolution

(l) The Pacific basin (Pacific area) may be regarded as moving eastwards like a double zip fastener relative to the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area): opening in the East and closing in the West. This movement is tracked by a continuous mountain belt, the collision ages of which increase westwards. (2) The relative movements between the Pacific area and the Pangaea area in the W-E/E-W direction are generated by tidal forces (principle of hypocycloid gearing), whereby the lower mantle and the Pacific basin or area (Pacific crust = roof of the lower mantle?) rotate somewhat faster eastwards around the Earth's spin axis relative to the upper mantle/crust system with the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area) (differential rotation). (3) These relative West to East/East to West displacements produce a perpetually existing sequence of distinct styles of opening and closing ocean basins, exemplified by the present East to West arrangement of ocean basins around the globe (Oceanic or Wilson Cycle: Rift/Red Sea style; Atlantic style; Mediterranean/Caribbean style as eastwards propagating tongue of the Pacific basin; Pacific style; Collision/Himalayas style). This sequence of ocean styles, of which the Pacific ocean is a part, moves eastwards with the lower mantle relative to the continents and the upper-mantle/crust of the Pangaea area. (4) Similarly, the collisional mountain belt extending westwards from the equator to the West of the Pacific and representing a chronological sequence of collision zones (sequential collisions) in the wake of the passing of the Pacific basin double zip fastener, may also be described as recording the history of oceans and their continental margins in the form of successive Wilson Cycles. (5) Every 200 to 250 m.y. the Pacific basin double zip fastener, the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle and the eastwards growing collisional mountain belt in their wake complete one lap around the Earth. Two East drift lappings of 400 to 500 m.y. produce a two-lap collisional mountain belt spiral around a supercontinent in one hemisphere (North or South Pangaea). The Earth's history is subdivided into alternating North Pangaea growth/South Pangaea breakup eras and South Pangaea growth/North Pangaea breakup eras. Older North and South Pangaeas and their collisional mountain belt spirals may be reconstructed by rotating back the continents and orogenic fragments of a broken spiral (e.g. South Pangaea, Gondwana) to their previous Pangaea growth era orientations. In the resulting collisional mountain belt spiral, pieced together from orogenic segments and fragments, the collision ages have to increase successively towards the West. (6) With its current western margin orientated in a West-East direction North America must have collided during the Late Cretaceous Laramide orogeny with the northern margin of South America (Caribbean Andes) at the equator to the West of the Late Mesozoic Pacific. During post-Laramide times it must have rotated clockwise into its present orientation. The eastern margin of North America has never been attached to the western margin of North Africa but only to the western margin of Europe. (7) Due to migration eastwards of the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle, relative to a distinct plate tectonic setting of an ocean, a continent or continental margin, a future or later evolutionary style at the Earth's surface is always depicted in a setting simultaneously developed further to the West and a past or earlier style in a setting simultaneously occurring further to the East. In consequence, ahigh probability exists that up to the Early Tertiary, Greenland (the ArabiaofSouth America?) occupied a plate tectonic setting which is comparable to the current setting of Arabia (the Greenland of Africa?). The Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary Eureka collision zone (Eureka orogeny) at the northern margin of the Greenland Plate and on some of the Canadian Arctic Islands is comparable with the Middle to Late Tertiary Taurus-Bitlis-Zagros collision zone at the northern margin of the Arabian Plate.

Palynology and foraminiferal geochemistry of the Lower Pleistocene Olduvai Subchron (ca. 1.8 Ma) in DSDP Hole 603C, western North Atlantic

Marine palynology and benthic and planktonic foraminiferal geochemistry are combined to reveal long- and short-term (Milankovitch-scale) paleoceanographic changes across the upper half of the Olduvai Subchron (ca. 1.86--1.77 Ma, lower Pleistocene) in DSDP Hole 603C from the lower New Jersey continental rise. Planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios reveal annual sea-surface temperatures between 14.5° and 25°C, whereas modern values vary between 16° and 20°e. Despite evidence of downslope transport in much of the studied interval, dinoflagellate cyst and acritarch assemblages appear to reflect fluctuating temperate to subtropical water masses. These assemblages comprise both neritic and oceanic species, and are marked by a transition upsection from warm conditions, dominated by Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Polysphaeridium zoharyi and Cymatiosphaera? invaginata, to cooler conditions dominated by Filisphaera filifera. Combining dinoflagellate cyst proxies with planktonic foraminiferal geochemistry allows downslope transport events to be recognized during glacial episodes, and events dominated by intensified bottom-water circulation during interglacial episodes. Sixtytwo in-situ dinoflagellate cyst and acritarch taxa were recorded including several not previously described.

CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC PALEOCEANOGRAPHY DURING THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE (ca. 726–603 ka): INSIGHTS FROM THE DINOFLAGELLATE CYST RECORD

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313, located at the northern boundary of the subtropical gyre in the central North Atlantic, lies within the southern part of the ice-rafted debris belt. Seventy-three palynological samples were studied from an uninterrupted interval ca. 726–603 ka (upper Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 18 through lower MIS 15) to resolve conflicting paleoceanographic interpretations. Glacial stages were characterized by high productivity surface waters reflecting a southward shift of the Arctic Front. Sea surface salinities (SSSs) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were obtained by transfer functions using the Modern Analogue Technique. The lowest SSTs of 9ºC (±1.3) and 10ºC (±1.3) were recorded in glacial MIS 16 and MIS 18 respectively. However, these reconstructions are influenced by abundant heterotrophic taxa and may reflect elevated nutrient levels rather than lowered temperatures. Reworked palynomorphs uniquely indicate a Cretaceous as well as Paleozoic provenance for the first Heinrich-like events.

The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Alkyl nitrates in outflow from North America over the North Atlantic during Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors 2004

This paper is based on alkyl nitrate measurements made over the North Atlantic as part of the International Consortium for Research on Atmospheric Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). The focus is on the analysis of air samples collected on the UK BAe-146 aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) project, but air samples collected on board the NASA DC-8 and NOAA WP-3D aircraft as part of a Lagrangian experiment are also used. The ratios between the alkyl nitrates and their parent hydrocarbons are compared with those expected from chemical theory. Further, a box model is run to investigate the temporal evolution of the alkyl nitrates in three Lagrangian case studies and compared to observations. The air samples collected during ITOP do not appear to be strongly influenced by oceanic sources, but rather are influenced by emissions from the N.E. United States and from Alaskan fires. There also appears to be a widespread common source of ethyl nitrate and 1-propyl nitrate other than from their parent hydrocarbons. The general agreement between the alkyl nitrate data and photochemical theory suggests that during the first few days of transport from the source region, photochemical production of alkyl nitrates, and thus ozone, had taken place. The observations in the more photochemically processed air masses are consistent with the alkyl nitrate production reactions no longer dominating the peroxy radical self/cross reactions. Further, the results also suggest that the rates of photochemical processing in the Alaskan smoke plumes were small.

A new Rossby Wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper proposes the hypothesis that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wave–breaking events over the North Atlantic. These events lead to synoptic situations similar to midlatitude blocking that are referred to as high-latitude blocking episodes. A positive NAO is envisaged as being a description of periods in which these episodes are infrequent and can be considered as a basic, unblocked situation. A negative NAO is a description of periods in which episodes occur frequently. A similar, but weaker, relationship exists between wave breaking over the Pacific and the west Pacific pattern. Evidence is given to support this hypothesis by using a two-dimensional potential-vorticity-based index to identify wave breaking at various latitudes. This is applied to Northern Hemisphere winter data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the events identified are then related to the NAO. Certain dynamical precursors are identified that appear to increase the likelihood of wave breaking. These suggest mechanisms by which variability in the tropical Pacific, and in the stratosphere, could affect the NAO.

Lagrangian analysis of low level anthropogenic plume processing across the North Atlantic

The photochemical evolution of an anthropogenic plume from the New-York/Boston region during its transport at low altitudes over the North Atlantic to the European west coast has been studied using a Lagrangian framework. This plume, originally strongly polluted, was sampled by research aircraft just off the North American east coast on 3 successive days, and 3 days downwind off the west coast of Ireland where another aircraft re-sampled a weakly polluted plume. Changes in trace gas concentrations during transport were reproduced using a photochemical trajectory model including deposition and mixing effects. Chemical and wet deposition processing dominated the evolution of all pollutants in the plume. The mean net O3 production was evaluated to be -5 ppbv/day leading to low values of O3 by the time the plume reached Europe. Wet deposition of nitric acid was responsible for an 80% reduction in this O3 production. If the plume had not encountered precipitation, it would have reached the Europe with O3 levels up to 80-90 ppbv, and CO levels between 120 and 140 ppbv. Photochemical destruction also played a more important role than mixing in the evolution of plume CO due to high levels of both O3 and water vapour showing that CO cannot always be used as a tracer for polluted air masses, especially for plumes transported at low altitudes. The results also show that, in this case, an important increase in the O3/CO slope can be attributed to chemical destruction of CO and not to photochemical O3 production as is often assumed.