Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

GYAN: A methodology for rule extraction from artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) learning methods provide a robust and non-linear approach to approximating the target function for many classification, regression and clustering problems. ANNs have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide variety of practical problems. However, there are strong arguments as to why ANNs are not sufficient for the general representation of knowledge. The arguments are the poor comprehensibility of the learned ANN, and the inability to represent explanation structures. The overall objective of this thesis is to address these issues by: (1) explanation of the decision process in ANNs in the form of symbolic rules (predicate rules with variables); and (2) provision of explanatory capability by mapping the general conceptual knowledge that is learned by the neural networks into a knowledge base to be used in a rule-based reasoning system. A multi-stage methodology GYAN is developed and evaluated for the task of extracting knowledge from the trained ANNs. The extracted knowledge is represented in the form of restricted first-order logic rules, and subsequently allows user interaction by interfacing with a knowledge based reasoner. The performance of GYAN is demonstrated using a number of real world and artificial data sets. The empirical results demonstrate that: (1) an equivalent symbolic interpretation is derived describing the overall behaviour of the ANN with high accuracy and fidelity, and (2) a concise explanation is given (in terms of rules, facts and predicates activated in a reasoning episode) as to why a particular instance is being classified into a certain category.

The sample complexity of pattern classification with neural networks: the size of the weights is more important than the size of the network

Sample complexity results from computational learning theory, when applied to neural network learning for pattern classification problems, suggest that for good generalization performance the number of training examples should grow at least linearly with the number of adjustable parameters in the network. Results in this paper show that if a large neural network is used for a pattern classification problem and the learning algorithm finds a network with small weights that has small squared error on the training patterns, then the generalization performance depends on the size of the weights rather than the number of weights. For example, consider a two-layer feedforward network of sigmoid units, in which the sum of the magnitudes of the weights associated with each unit is bounded by A and the input dimension is n. We show that the misclassification probability is no more than a certain error estimate (that is related to squared error on the training set) plus A3 √((log n)/m) (ignoring log A and log m factors), where m is the number of training patterns. This may explain the generalization performance of neural networks, particularly when the number of training examples is considerably smaller than the number of weights. It also supports heuristics (such as weight decay and early stopping) that attempt to keep the weights small during training. The proof techniques appear to be useful for the analysis of other pattern classifiers: when the input domain is a totally bounded metric space, we use the same approach to give upper bounds on misclassification probability for classifiers with decision boundaries that are far from the training examples.

Neural network learning:theoretical foundations

This important work describes recent theoretical advances in the study of artificial neural networks. It explores probabilistic models of supervised learning problems, and addresses the key statistical and computational questions. Chapters survey research on pattern classification with binary-output networks, including a discussion of the relevance of the Vapnik Chervonenkis dimension, and of estimates of the dimension for several neural network models. In addition, Anthony and Bartlett develop a model of classification by real-output networks, and demonstrate the usefulness of classification with a "large margin." The authors explain the role of scale-sensitive versions of the Vapnik Chervonenkis dimension in large margin classification, and in real prediction. Key chapters also discuss the computational complexity of neural network learning, describing a variety of hardness results, and outlining two efficient, constructive learning algorithms. The book is self-contained and accessible to researchers and graduate students in computer science, engineering, and mathematics

Frequency response function based structural damage detection using artificial neural networks

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with frequency response functions (FRFs). This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a beam structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In practice, usage of all available FRF data as an input to artificial neural networks makes the training and convergence impossible. Therefore one of the data reduction techniques Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is introduced in the algorithm. In the proposed procedure, a large set of FRFs are divided into sub-sets in order to find the damage indices for different frequency points of different damage scenarios. The basic idea of this method is to establish features of damaged structure using FRFs from different measurement points of different sub-sets of intact structure. Then using these features, damage indices of different damage cases of the structure are identified after reconstructing of available FRF data using PCA. The obtained damage indices corresponding to different damage locations and severities are introduced as input variable to developed artificial neural networks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the finite element modal of a beam structure. The illustrated results show that the PCA based damage index is suitable and effective for structural damage detection and condition assessment of building structures.

Using strategic movement to calibrate a neural compass : a spiking network for tracking head direction in rats and robots

The head direction (HD) system in mammals contains neurons that fire to represent the direction the animal is facing in its environment. The ability of these cells to reliably track head direction even after the removal of external sensory cues implies that the HD system is calibrated to function effectively using just internal (proprioceptive and vestibular) inputs. Rat pups and other infant mammals display stereotypical warm-up movements prior to locomotion in novel environments, and similar warm-up movements are seen in adult mammals with certain brain lesion-induced motor impairments. In this study we propose that synaptic learning mechanisms, in conjunction with appropriate movement strategies based on warm-up movements, can calibrate the HD system so that it functions effectively even in darkness. To examine the link between physical embodiment and neural control, and to determine that the system is robust to real-world phenomena, we implemented the synaptic mechanisms in a spiking neural network and tested it on a mobile robot platform. Results show that the combination of the synaptic learning mechanisms and warm-up movements are able to reliably calibrate the HD system so that it accurately tracks real-world head direction, and that calibration breaks down in systematic ways if certain movements are omitted. This work confirms that targeted, embodied behaviour can be used to calibrate neural systems, demonstrates that ‘grounding’ of modeled biological processes in the real world can reveal underlying functional principles (supporting the importance of robotics to biology), and proposes a functional role for stereotypical behaviours seen in infant mammals and those animals with certain motor deficits. We conjecture that these calibration principles may extend to the calibration of other neural systems involved in motion tracking and the representation of space, such as grid cells in entorhinal cortex.

The use of artificial neural networks for identifying sustainable biodiesel feedstocks

Over the past few decades, biodiesel produced from oilseed crops and animal fat is receiving much attention as a renewable and sustainable alternative for automobile engine fuels, and particularly petroleum diesel. However, current biodiesel production is heavily dependent on edible oil feedstocks which are unlikely to be sustainable in the longer term due to the rising food prices and the concerns about automobile engine durability. Therefore, there is an urgent need for researchers to identify and develop sustainable biodiesel feedstocks which overcome the disadvantages of current ones. On the other hand, artificial neural network (ANN) modeling has been successfully used in recent years to gain new knowledge in various disciplines. The main goal of this article is to review recent literatures and assess the state of the art on the use of ANN as a modeling tool for future generation biodiesel feedstocks. Biodiesel feedstocks, production processes, chemical compositions, standards, physio-chemical properties and in-use performance are discussed. Limitations of current biodiesel feedstocks over future generation biodiesel feedstock have been identified. The application of ANN in modeling key biodiesel quality parameters and combustion performance in automobile engines is also discussed. This review has determined that ANN modeling has a high potential to contribute to the development of renewable energy systems by accelerating biodiesel research.

An Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) model for predicting biodiesel kinetic viscosity as a function of temperature and chemical compositions

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Predicting freeway pavement construction cost using a back-propagation neural network : a case study in Henan, China

The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.

Identification of New Zealand bats in flight from analysis of echolocation calls by artificial neural networks.

Time-expanded and heterodyned echolocation calls of the New Zealand long-tailed Chalinolobus tuberculatus and lesser short-tailed bat Mystacina tuberculata were recorded and digitally analysed. Temporal and spectral parameters were measured from time-expanded calls and power spectra generated for both time-expanded and heterodyned calls. Artificial neural networks were trained to classify the calls of both species using temporal and spectral parameters and power spectra as input data. Networks were then tested using data not previously seen. Calls could be unambiguously identified using parameters and power spectra from time-expanded calls. A neural network, trained and tested using power spectra of calls from both species recorded using a heterodyne detector set to 40 kHz (the frequency with the most energy of the fundamental of C. tuberculatus call), could identify 99% and 84% of calls of C. tuberculatus and M. tuberculata, respectively. A second network, trained and tested using power spectra of calls from both species recorded using a heterodyne detector set to 27 kHz (the frequency with the most energy of the fundamental of M. tuberculata call), could identify 34% and 100% of calls of C. tuberculatus and M. tuberculata, respectively. This study represents the first use of neural networks for the identification of bats from their echolocation calls. It is also the first study to use power spectra of time-expanded and heterodyned calls for identification of chiropteran species. The ability of neural networks to identify bats from their echolocation calls is discussed, as is the ecology of both species in relation to the design of their echolocation calls.

Acoustic identification of 12 species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

Acoustic identification of twelve species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

Implementation of Art1 and Art2 Artificial Neural Networks on Ring and Mesh Architectures

The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are being used to solve a variety of problems in pattern recognition, robotic control, VLSI CAD and other areas. In most of these applications, a speedy response from the ANNs is imperative. However, ANNs comprise a large number of artificial neurons, and a massive interconnection network among them. Hence, implementation of these ANNs involves execution of computer-intensive operations. The usage of multiprocessor systems therefore becomes necessary. In this article, we have presented the implementation of ART1 and ART2 ANNs on ring and mesh architectures. The overall system design and implementation aspects are presented. The performance of the algorithm on ring, 2-dimensional mesh and n-dimensional mesh topologies is presented. The parallel algorithm presented for implementation of ART1 is not specific to any particular architecture. The parallel algorithm for ARTE is more suitable for a ring architecture.