On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Investigation of escape and negative student behaviors related to Florida state high stakes test preparation in Miami-Dade County Public High Schools

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between pressure to perform on state mandated, high-stakes tests and the rate of student escape behavior defined as the number of school suspensions and absences. The state assigned grade of a school was used as a surrogate measure of pressure with the assumption that pressure increased as the school grade decreased. Student attendance and suspension data were gathered from all 33 of the regular public high schools in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The research questions were: Is the number of suspensions highest in the third quarter, when most FCAT preparation takes place for each of the 3 school years 2007-08 through 2009-10? How accurately does the high school's grade predict the number of suspensions and number of absences during each of the 4 school years 2005-06 through 2008-09? The research questions were answered using repeated measures analysis of variance for research question #1 and non-linear multiple regression for research question #2. No significant difference could be found between the numbers of suspensions in each of the grading periods nor was there a relationship between the number of suspensions and school grade. A statistically significant relationship was found between student attendance and school grade. When plotted, this relationship was found to be quadratic in nature and formed a loose inverted U for each of the four years during which data were collected. This indicated that students in very high and very low performing schools had low levels of absences while those in the midlevel of the distribution of school performance (C schools) had the greatest rates of absence. Identifying a relationship between the pressures associated with high stakes testing and student escape behavior suggests that it might be useful for building administrators to reevaluate test preparation activities and procedures being used in their building and to include anxiety reducing strategies. As a relationship was found, it sets the foundation for future studies to identify whether testing related activities are impacting some students emotionally and are causing unintended consequences of testing mandates.

Calcium Channel Blocker Use and Risk of Prostate Cancer by TMPRSS2:ERG Gene Fusion Status

BACKGROUND: Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) may affect prostate cancer (PCa) growth by various mechanisms including those related to androgens. The fusion of the androgen-regulated gene TMPRSS2 and the oncogene ERG (TMPRSS2:ERG or T2E) is common in PCa, and prostate tumors that harbor the gene fusion are believed to represent a distinct disease subtype. We studied the association of CCB use with the risk of PCa, and molecular subtypes of PCa defined by T2E status.

METHODS: Participants were residents of King County, Washington, recruited for population-based case-control studies (1993-1996 or 2002-2005). Tumor T2E status was determined by fluorescence in situ hybridization using tumor tissue specimens from radical prostatectomy. Detailed information on use of CCBs and other variables was obtained through in-person interviews. Binomial and polytomous logistic regression were used to generate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS: The study included 1,747 PCa patients and 1,635 age-matched controls. A subset of 563 patients treated with radical prostatectomy had T2E status determined, of which 295 were T2E positive (52%). Use of CCBs (ever vs. never) was not associated with overall PCa risk. However, among European-American men, users had a reduced risk of higher-grade PCa (Gleason scores ≥7: adjusted OR = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44-0.95). Further, use of CCBs was associated with a reduced risk of T2E positive PCa (adjusted OR = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.19-0.78), but was not associated with T2E negative PCa.

CONCLUSIONS: This study found suggestive evidence that use of CCBs is associated with reduced relative risks for higher Gleason score and T2E positive PCa. Future studies of PCa etiology should consider etiologic heterogeneity as PCa subtypes may develop through different causal pathways. 

Investigation of Escape and Negative Student Behaviors Related to Florida State High Stakes Test Preparation in Miami-Dade County Public High Schools, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between pressure to perform on state mandated, high-stakes tests and the rate of student escape behavior defined as the number of school suspensions and absences. The state assigned grade of a school was used as a surrogate measure of pressure with the assumption that pressure increased as the school grade decreased. Student attendance and suspension data were gathered from all 33 of the regular public high schools in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The research questions were: Is the number of suspensions highest in the third quarter, when most FCAT preparation takes place for each of the 3 school years 2007-08 through 2009-10? How accurately does the high school’s grade predict the number of suspensions and number of absences during each of the 4 school years 2005-06 through 2008-09? The research questions were answered using repeated measures analysis of variance for research question #1 and non-linear multiple regression for research question #2. No significant difference could be found between the numbers of suspensions in each of the grading periods nor was there a relationship between the number of suspensions and school grade. A statistically significant relationship was found between student attendance and school grade. When plotted, this relationship was found to be quadratic in nature and formed a loose inverted U for each of the four years during which data were collected. This indicated that students in very high and very low performing schools had low levels of absences while those in the midlevel of the distribution of school performance (C schools) had the greatest rates of absence. Identifying a relationship between the pressures associated with high stakes testing and student escape behavior suggests that it might be useful for building administrators to reevaluate test preparation activities and procedures being used in their building and to include anxiety reducing strategies. As a relationship was found, it sets the foundation for future studies to identify whether testing related activities are impacting some students emotionally and are causing unintended consequences of testing mandates.

Risk factors associated with negative in-vivo diagnostic results in bovine tuberculosis-infected cattle in Spain

BACKGROUND Despite great effort and investment incurred over decades to control bovine tuberculosis (bTB), it is still one of the most important zoonotic diseases in many areas of the world. Test-and-slaughter strategies, the basis of most bTB eradication programs carried out worldwide, have demonstrated its usefulness in the control of the disease. However, in certain countries, eradication has not been achieved due in part to limitations of currently available diagnostic tests. In this study, results of in-vivo and post-mortem diagnostic tests performed on 3,614 animals from 152 bTB-infected cattle herds (beef, dairy, and bullfighting) detected in 2007-2010 in the region of Castilla y León, Spain, were analyzed to identify factors associated with positive bacteriological results in cattle that were non-reactors to the single intradermal tuberculin test, to the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay, or to both tests applied in parallel (Test negative/Culture + animals, T-/C+). The association of individual factors (age, productive type, and number of herd-tests performed since the disclosure of the outbreak) with the bacteriology outcome (positive/negative) was analyzed using a mixed multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS The proportion of non-reactors with a positive post-mortem result ranged from 24.3% in the case of the SIT test to 12.9% (IFN-γ with 0.05 threshold) and 11.9% (95% CI 9.9-11.4%) using both tests in parallel. Older (>4.5 years) and bullfighting cattle were associated with increased odds of confirmed bTB infection by bacteriology, whereas dairy cattle showed a significantly lower risk. Ancillary use of IFN-γ assay reduced the proportion of T-/C + animals in high risk groups. CONCLUSIONS These results demonstrate the likelihood of positive bacteriological results in non-reactor cattle is influenced by individual epidemiological factors of tested animals. Increased surveillance on non-reactors with an increased probability of being false negative could be helpful to avoid bTB persistence, particularly in chronically infected herds. These findings may aid in the development of effective strategies for eradication of bTB in Spain.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Desquamation Is A Novel Phenomenon For Collective Prostate Epithelial Cell Deletion After Castration.

The mechanism underlying castration-induced prostate regression, which is a classical physiological concept translated into the therapeutic treatment of advanced prostate cancer, involves epithelial cell apoptosis. In searching for events and mechanisms contributing to prostate regression in response to androgen modulation, we have frequently observed the collective deletion of epithelial cells. This work was undertaken to characterize this phenomenon hereafter named desquamation and to verify its presence after 17β-estradiol (E2) administration. Electron microscopy revealed that the desquamating cells had preserved cell-cell junctions and collapsed nuclear contents. The TUNEL reaction was negative for these cells, which were also negative for cleaved caspases-8, -9, -3 and nuclear apoptosis-inducing factor. Detailed analyses revealed that the condensed chromatin was first affected detaching from the nuclear lamina, which was observable after lamin A immunohistochemistry, suggesting the lack of lamin A degradation. A search in animals treated with supraphysiological E2 employed as an alternative anti-androgen treatment revealed no desquamation. The combined treatment (Cas + E2 group) caused changes particular to each treatment, including desquamation. In conclusion, desquamation appeared as a novel phenomenon contributing to collective prostate epithelial cell deletion, distinct from the classical castration-induced apoptosis and particular to the androgen deprivation resulting from surgical castration, and should be considered as part of the mechanisms promoting organ regression.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

The Inadequacy Of The Y-axis Of Growth (sngn) For The Vertical Pattern Assessment In Patients With Sagittal Discrepancies.

The aim of this cephalometric study was to evaluate the influence of the sagittal skeletal pattern on the 'Y-axis of growth' measurement in patients with different malocclusions. Lateral head films from 59 patients (mean age 16y 7m, ranging from 11 to 25 years) were selected after a subjective analysis of 1630 cases. Sample was grouped as follows: Group 1 - class I facial pattern; group 2 - class II facial pattern; and Group 3 - class III facial pattern. Two angular measurements, SNGoGn and SNGn, were taken in order to determine skeletal vertical facial pattern. A logistic regression with errors distributed according to a binomial distribution was used to test the influence of the sagittal relationship (Class I, II, III facial patterns) on vertical diagnostic measurement congruence (SNGoGn and SNGn). RESULTS show that the probability of congruence between the patterns SNGn and SNGoGn was relatively high (70%) for group 1, but for groups II (46%) and III (37%) this congruence was relatively low. The use of SNGn appears to be inappropriate to determine the vertical facial skeletal pattern of patients, due to Gn point shifting throughout sagittal discrepancies. Clinical Significance: Facial pattern determined by SNGn must be considered carefully, especially when severe sagittal discrepancies are present.

Analysis Of The Contribution Of Immunologically-detectable Her2, Steroid Receptors And Of The Triple-negative" Tumor Status To Disease-free And Overall Survival Of Women With Epithelial Ovarian Cancer."

We assessed associations between steroid receptors including: estrogen-alpha, estrogen-beta, androgen receptor, progesterone receptor, the HER2 status and triple-negative epithelial ovarian cancer (ERα-/PR-/HER2-; TNEOC) status and survival in women with epithelial ovarian cancer. The study included 152 women with primary epithelial ovarian cancer. The status of steroid receptor and HER2 was determined by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free and overall survival were calculated and compared with steroid receptor and HER2 status as well as clinicopathological features using the Cox Proportional Hazards model. A mean follow-up period of 43.6 months (interquartile range=41.4 months) was achieved where 44% of patients had serous tumor, followed by mucinous (23%), endometrioid (9%), mixed (9%), undifferentiated (8.5%) and clear cell tumors (5.3%). ER-alpha staining was associated with grade II-III tumors. Progesterone receptor staining was positively associated with a Body Mass Index≥25. Androgen receptor positivity was higher in serous tumors. In stand-alone analysis of receptor contribution to survival, estrogen-alpha positivity was associated with greater disease-free survival. However, there was no significant association between steroid receptor expression, HER2 status, or TNEOC status, and overall survival. Although estrogen-alpha, androgen receptor, progesterone receptor and the HER2 status were associated with key clinical features of the women and pathological characteristics of the tumors, these associations were not implicated in survival. Interestingly, women with TNEOC seem to fare the same way as their counterparts with non-TNEOC.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Prevalence Of Urinary Incontinence And Its Association With Multimorbidity In Women Aged 50 Years Or Older: A Population-based Study.

To evaluate the prevalence and associated risk factors for urinary incontinence, as well as its association with multimorbidity among Brazilian women aged 50 or over. This was a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional population-based study including 622 women 50 years or older, conducted in the city of Campinas-SP-Brazil. The dependent variable was Urinary Incontinence (UI), defined as any complaint of urine loss. The independent variables were sociodemographic data, health-related habits, self-perception of health and functional capacity evaluation. Statistical analysis was carried out using the Chi-square test and Poisson regression. The mean age of the women was 64. UI was prevalent in 52.3% of these women: Mixed UI (26.6%), Urge UI (13.2%) and Stress UI (12.4%). Factors associated with a higher prevalence of UI were hypertension (OR 1.21, CI 1:01-1:47, P = 0.004), osteoarthritis (OR 1.24, CI 1:03-1:50, P = 0.022), physical activity ≥3 days/week (OR 1.21, CI 1:01-1:44, P = 0.039), BMI ≥ 25 at the time of the interview (OR 1.25, CI 1:04-1:49, P = 0.018), negative self-perception of health (OR 1.23, CI 1:06-1:44 P = 0.007) and limitations in daily living activities (PR 1:56 CI 1:16-2:10, P = 0.004). The prevalence of UI was high. Mixed incontinence was the most frequent type of UI. Many associated factors can be prevented or improved. Thus, health policies targeted at these combined factors could reduce their prevalence rate and possibly decrease the prevalence of UI. Neurourol. Urodynam. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Storage At Low Temperature Differentially Affects The Colour And Carotenoid Composition Of Two Cultivars Of Banana.

Different storage conditions can induce changes in the colour and carotenoid profiles and levels in some fruits. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of low temperature storage on the colour and carotenoid synthesis in two banana cultivars: Prata and Nanicão. For this purpose, the carotenoids from the banana pulp were determined by HPLC-DAD-MS/MS, and the colour of the banana skin was determined by a colorimeter method. Ten carotenoids were identified, of which the major carotenoids were all-trans-lutein, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene in both cultivars. The effect of the low temperatures was subjected to linear regression analysis. In cv. Prata, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene were significantly affected by low temperature (p<0.01), with negative estimated values (β coefficients) indicating that during cold storage conditions, the concentrations of these carotenoids tended to decrease. In cv. Nanicão, no carotenoid was significantly affected by cold storage (p>0.05). The accumulation of carotenoids in this group may be because the metabolic pathways using these carotenoids were affected by storage at low temperatures. The colour of the fruits was not negatively affected by the low temperatures (p>0.05).

High Prevalence Of Insulin Resistance Assessed By The Glucose Clamp Technique In Hormonal And Non-hormonal Contraceptive Users.

Objective To assess the prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) and associated factors in contraceptive users. Methods A total of 47 women 18 to 40 years of age with a body mass index (kg/m(2)) < 30, fasting glucose levels < 100 mg/dl and 2-hour glucose level < 140 mg/dl after a 75-g oral glucose load were submitted to a hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. The women were distributed in tertiles regarding M-values. The analysed variables were use of combined hormonal/non-hormonal contraception, duration of use, body composition, lipid profile, glucose levels and blood pressure. Results IR was detected in 19% of the participants. The women with low M-values presented significantly higher body fat mass, waist-to-hip ratio, fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and were nulligravida, showed > 1 year of contraceptive use and higher triglyceride levels. IR was more frequent among combined oral contraceptive users, however no association was observed after regression analysis. Conclusions The prevalence of IR was high among healthy women attending a family planning clinic independent of the contraceptive method used with possible long-term negative consequences regarding their metabolic and cardiovascular health. Although an association between hormonal contraception and IR could not be found this needs further research. Family planning professionals should be proactive counselling healthy women about the importance of healthy habits.