Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Pro-poor growth and social programmes in Brazil

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contributions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as propoor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between growth patterns and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, we assess the contribution of different income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more pro-poor social security benefits.

Linkages between growth, poverty and the labour market

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contributions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages growth patterns, and labour market performances. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate, hours of work, the labour force participation rate, and productivity. The proposed methodology are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance.

Regional or educational disparities? a counterfactual exercise

This work investigates the impact of schooling Oil income distribution in statesjregions of Brazil. Using a semi-parametric model, discussed in DiNardo, Fortin & Lemieux (1996), we measure how much income diíferences between the Northeast and Southeast regions- the country's poorest and richest - and between the states of Ceará and São Paulo in those regions - can be explained by differences in schooling leveIs of the resident population. Using data from the National Household Survey (PNAD), we construct counterfactual densities by reweighting the distribution of the poorest region/state by the schooling profile of the richest. We conclude that: (i) more than 50% of the income di:fference is explained by the difference in schooling; (ii) the highest deciles of the income distribution gain more from an increase in schooling, closely approaching the wage distribution of the richest region/state; and (iii) an increase in schooling, holding the wage structure constant, aggravates the wage disparity in the poorest regions/ states.

Evidence of eligibility manipulation for conditional cash transfer programs

This paper assesses whether eligibility for conditional cash transfer programs have been manipulated, as well as the impact of this phenomenon on time allocation within households. To perform this analysis, we use data from the 2006 PNAD (Brazilian national household survey) and investigate the eligibility manipulation for the Bolsa Família (Family Stipend) program during this time period. The program assists families with a monthly per capita income of around R$120.00 (US$60.00). By applying the tests developed by McCrary (2008), we find suggestive evidence that individuals manipulate their income by voluntarily reducing their labor supply in order to become eligible to the program. Moreover, the reduction in labor supply is greater among women, especially single or divorced mothers. This evidence raises some concern about the unintended consequences related to the eligibility criteria utilized by Bolsa Família, as well as the program’s impact on individuals living in extreme poverty.

Linkages between pro-poor growth, social programmes and labour market : the recent Brazilian experience

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contlibutions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between three dimensions: growth pattems, labour market performances. and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate. hours of work, the labour force participation rate. and productivity. We also assess the contribution of different nonlabour income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more propoor social security benefits.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

Três ensaios em economia da educação

Essa tese é composta por três artigos na área de Economia da Educação que buscam investigar a questão do ensino médio técnico no Brasil. O primeiro e segundo artigos se inserem na literatura de avaliação de impacto dos tipos de ensino médio realizado, o de formação geral ou técnica, sobre os resultados do mercado de trabalho. Esse é um tema cada vez mais explorado em estudos empíricos internacionais, mas que ainda merece atenção dos pesquisadores no Brasil, seja para preencher lacunas no que se refere à identificação do efeito causal dessa política, seja porque o ensino técnico profissionalizante tenha se tornado alvo de maiores investimentos públicos nos últimos anos. Dessa forma, os dois artigos têm o propósito de estimar o efeito causal das habilidades técnicas adquiridas nos cursos técnicos de nível médio sobre os salários dos trabalhadores, no entanto se diferem pela fonte de dados utilizada. No primeiro artigo são utilizados os dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (IBGE) de 2007 e nossa contribuição está na estratégia de identificação do efeito causal, ao resolver o problema de auto seleção com o método de duplas diferenças (DD). Diversos testes de robustez foram realizados para dar suporte ao impacto positivo e estatisticamente significante que encontramos das habilidades técnicas sobre os salários, embora este seja restrito ao subgrupo de trabalhadores com no máximo o ensino médio completo. No segundo artigo foram utilizadas duas fontes de dados ainda não exploradas para esse fim, os microdados do ENEM (Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio) entre os anos de 2004 e 2006 e os dados da RAIS (Relação Anual de Informações Sociais) de 2009 a 2012 identificados por indivíduo (CPF). Por ser possível observar as notas dos jovens ao final do ensino médio, conseguimos separar os impactos do ensino médio técnico nos salários relacionados às habilidades técnicas específicas obtidas nos cursos técnicos, daqueles relacionados às habilidades gerais dos indivíduos (cognitivas ou não). Implementamos a estratégia de duplas diferenças e mais uma vez encontramos impacto positivo sobre os salários anuais dos jovens que concluíram o ensino médio técnico. Dessa vez nossos resultados são positivos tanto para os jovens que pararam seus estudos no ensino médio como para aqueles que concluíram o ensino superior. Verificamos a existência de heterogeneidade do efeito por região do país e nos quartis de distribuição de notas médias por escola no ENEM, indicando que os efeitos são crescentes com a qualidade oferecida pelas escolas. O terceiro artigo tem por objetivo estudar o mercado de trabalho no que diz respeito às ocupações tipicamente preenchidas por profissionais com nível médio técnico e analisar os diferenciais de salários dessas ocupações. A partir das ideias desenvolvidas no estudo, almejamos que ele seja orientador de políticas que relacionem educação técnica com demandas do mercado, com a finalidade de melhorar o matching entre formação e emprego. Entre as contribuições deste artigo estão a identificação e classificação das ocupações típicas de nível médio técnico pelo diferencial de salários, a correspondência entre as ocupações e as formações técnicas, a análise da atual oferta de vagas nos cursos correspondentes e o destaque para os cursos que parecem necessitar de maiores investimentos para o suprir as necessidades de mais profissionais.

Inquérito epidemiológico sobre teníase em população do programa saúde da família no município de Uberaba, MG

Foi realizado inquérito para avaliar alguns aspectos epidemiológicos da teníase em 100.144 indivíduos do Programa Saúde da Família. Foram identificados 185 (0,2%) indivíduos com antecedentes de teníase. Destes, 112 (60,5%) receberam tratamento com praziquantel. em 97 (86,6%) dos casos, houve eliminação de proglotes que corresponderam a Taenia saginata e Taenia solium em 36 (37,1%) e 4 (4,1%), respectivamente.

Violência entre parceiros íntimos e álcool: prevalência e fatores associados

Objective. To estimate physical violence between intimate partners and to examine the association between violence and sociodemographic variables, use of alcohol, and other related factors.Method. This epidemiologic survey included a stratified probabilistic sample representative of the population from the city of São Paulo in economic and educational terms. The Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) questionnaire was employed. The sampling unit was the home, where all individuals older than 18 years were candidates for interview. The final sample included 1 631 people. Statistical analysis employed the Rao Scott test and logistic regression.Results. The response rate was 74.5%. Most participants were female (58.8%), younger than 40 years of age (52%), or had 5 to 12 years of schooling. of the overall group, 5.4% reported having been victims of physical violence by an intimate partner and 5.4% declared having been aggressors of intimate partners in the past 2 years. Most men declared that none of those involved had ingested alcohol at the moment of aggression. Most women reported that nobody or only the man had drunk. Being a victim or an aggressor was associated with younger age and having a heavy-drinking partner. Women suffered more serious aggression, requiring medical care, and expressed more anger and disgust at aggression than men.Conclusions. The results underscore the importance of the association between alcohol use and risk of aggression between intimate partners, and may contribute to the design of public policies aimed to control this situation.

Condição periodontal, perda dentária e diferenças socioeconômicas em adultos e idosos brasileiros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

NATIONWIDE ESTIMATES OF BLACKBIRDS AND STARLINGS

An estimated 538 million blackbirds and Starlings are found in the United States, based on the national cooperative blackbird/Starling winter roost survey conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service during the 1974-75 winter period of December 20-February 15. Ap- proximately 74% or 398 million of these blackbirds and Starlings occurred in the Eastern States, including the tier from Minnesota to Louisiana; 26% or 139 million birds were in the West. The national roosting population in 1974-75 was composed of 11 species (Table 1) in the following approximate proportions: 38% Red-winged Blackbirds; 22% Common Grackles; 20% Starlings; 18% Brown-headed Cowbirds; 2% Brewer’s Blackbirds; and less than 1% six species combined (Rusty Blackbirds, Boat-tailed Grackles, Great-tailed Grackles, Tri-colored Black- birds, Yellow-headed Blackbirds, and Bronzed Cowbirds). (Some 2 million robins also were reported in the 1974-75 survey, though not solicited and therefore not tabulated, from 20 of the blackbird roosts in the Southeast.) The 1974-75 species proportions are similar to those found in the last nationwide winter survey (1969-70). In the 1963-64 national winter survey, Redwings made up 33% and Common Grackles 31% of the total population.

Social phobia in Brazilian university students: Prevalence, under-recognition and academic impairment in women

Background: Despite the fact that public speaking is a common academic activity and that social phobia has been associated with lower educational achievement and impaired academic performance, little research has examined the prevalence of social phobia in college students. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of social phobia in a large sample of Brazilian college students and to examine the academic impact of this disorder. Methods: The Social Phobia Inventory (SPIN) and the MINI-SPIN, used as the indicator of social phobia in the screening phase, were applied to 2319 randomly selected students from two Brazilian universities. For the second phase (diagnostic confirmation), four psychiatrists and one clinical psychologist administered the SCID-IV to subjects with MINI-SPIN scores of 6 or higher. Results: The prevalence of social phobia among the university students was 11.6%. Women with social phobia had significantly lower grades than those without the disorder. Fear of public speaking was the most common social fear. Only two of the 237 students with social phobia (0.8%) had previously received a diagnosis of social phobia and were under treatment. Limitations: Social phobia comorbidities were not evaluated in this study. The methods of assessment employed by the universities (written exams) may mask the presence of social phobia. This was not a population-based study, and thus the results are not generalizable to the entire population with social phobia. Conclusion: Preventive strategies are recommended to reduce the under-recognition and the adverse impact of social phobia on academic performance and overall quality of life of university students. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social phobia in obsessive-compulsive disorder: Prevalence and correlates

Background: Social Phobia (SP) is an anxiety disorder that frequently co-occurs with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD); however, studies that evaluate clinical factors associated with this specific comorbidity are rare. The aim was to estimate the prevalence of SP in a large multicenter sample of OCD patients and compare the characteristics of individuals with and without SP. Method: A cross-sectional study with 1001 patients of the Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders using several assessment instruments, including the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders. Univariate analyses were followed by logistic regression. Results: Lifetime prevalence of SP was 34.6% (N=346). The following variables remained associated with SP comorbidity after logistic regression: male sex, lower socioeconomic status, body dysmorphic disorder, specific phobia, dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, agoraphobia, Tourette syndrome and binge eating disorder. Limitations: The cross-sectional design does not permit the inference of causal relationships; some retrospective information may have been subject to recall bias; all patients were being treated in tertiary services, therefore generalization of the results to other samples of OCD sufferers should be cautious. Despite the large sample size, some hypotheses may not have been confirmed due to the small number of cases with these characteristics (type 2 error). Conclusion: SP is frequent among OCD patients and co-occurs with other disorders that have common phenomenological features. These findings have important implications for clinical practice, indicating the need for broader treatment approaches for individuals with this profile. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parent psychopathology and offspring mental disorders: results from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background Associations between specific parent and offspring mental disorders are likely to have been overestimated in studies that have failed to control for parent comorbidity. Aims To examine the associations of parent with respondent disorders. Method Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health Surveys (n = 51 507). Respondent disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and parent disorders with informant-based Family History Research Diagnostic Criteria interviews. Results Although virtually all parent disorders examined (major depressive, generalised anxiety, panic, substance and antisocial behaviour disorders and suicidality) were significantly associated with offspring disorders in multivariate analyses, little specificity was found. Comorbid parent disorders had significant sub-additive associations with offspring disorders. Population-attributable risk proportions for parent disorders were 12.4% across all offspring disorders, generally higher in high- and upper-middle-than low-/lower-middle-income countries, and consistently higher for behaviour (11.0-19.9%) than other (7.1-14.0%) disorders. Conclusions Parent psychopathology is a robust non-specific predictor associated with a substantial proportion of offspring disorders.