Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

Sources, sinks, and transatlantic transport of North African dust aerosol: a multimodel analysis and comparison with remote sensing data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Analysis of incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region plasma

A procedure is presented for fitting incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma, using theoretical spectra previously predicted. It is found that values of the shape distortion factor D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian distribution, and ion temperatures can be deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20°. The procedure can be used with one or both of two sets of assumptions. These concern the validity of the adopted model for the line-of-sight ion velocity distribution in the one case or for the full three-dimensional ion velocity distribution function in the other. The distribution function employed was developed to describe the line-of-sight velocity distribution for large aspect angles, but both experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the form of the field-perpendicular distribution can also describe the distribution at more general aspect angles. The assumption of this form for the line-of-sight velocity distribution at a general aspect angle enables rigorous derivation of values of the one-dimensional, line-of-sight ion temperature. With some additional assumptions (principally that the field-parallel distribution is always Maxwellian and there is a simple relationship between the ion temperature anisotropy and the distortion of the field-perpendicular distribution from a Maxwellian), fits to data for large aspect angles enable determination of line-of-sight temperatures at all aspect angles and hence, of the average ion temperature and the ion temperature anisotropy. For small aspect angles, the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight ion temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution function and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.

Model predictions of the occurrence of non-Maxwellian plasmas, and analysis of their effects on EISCAT data

The recent identification of non-thermal plasmas using EISCAT data has been made possible by their occurrence during large, short-lived flow bursts. For steady, yet rapid, ion convection the only available signature is the shape of the spectrum, which is unreliable because it is open to distortion by noise and sampling uncertainty and can be mimicked by other phenomena. Nevertheless, spectral shape does give an indication of the presence of non-thermal plasma, and the characteristic shape has been observed for long periods (of the order of an hour or more) in some experiments. To evaluate this type of event properly one needs to compare it to what would be expected theoretically. Predictions have been made using the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model developed at University College London and the University of Sheffield to show where and when non-Maxwellian plasmas would be expected in the auroral zone. Geometrical and other factors then govern whether these are detectable by radar. The results are applicable to any incoherent scatter radar in this area, but the work presented here concentrates on predictions with regard to experiments on the EISCAT facility.

Precise analysis of array usage in scientific programs

The automatic transformation of sequential programs for efficient execution on parallel computers involves a number of analyses and restructurings of the input. Some of these analyses are based on computing array sections, a compact description of a range of array elements. Array sections describe the set of array elements that are either read or written by program statements. These sections can be compactly represented using shape descriptors such as regular sections, simple sections, or generalized convex regions. However, binary operations such as Union performed on these representations do not satisfy a straightforward closure property, e.g., if the operands to Union are convex, the result may be nonconvex. Approximations are resorted to in order to satisfy this closure property. These approximations introduce imprecision in the analyses and, furthermore, the imprecisions resulting from successive operations have a cumulative effect. Delayed merging is a technique suggested and used in some of the existing analyses to minimize the effects of approximation. However, this technique does not guarantee an exact solution in a general setting. This article presents a generalized technique to precisely compute Union which can overcome these imprecisions.

Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis.

Wear of Ball Attachments After 1 to 8 Years of Clinical Use: A Qualitative Analysis

The purpose of this study was to analyze and compare scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observations of ball attachments that had been worn by patients during three periods of clinical use. One hundred forty-four specimens of ball anchor attachments (gold alloy matrix and titanium patrix) were studied by SEM after periods of approximately 1, 3.5, and 8 years of clinical use. Twenty new attachment components were examined as controls. SEM images revealed signs of mechanical wear for the ball attachments studied. The surfaces of the titanium patrix were associated primarily with roughening after short-term use, whereas surfaces of the gold alloy matrix showed wear, roughening, and loss of microscopic material in the form of flakes. Severe mechanical wear on both surfaces was noted after longer periods of use. The mechanical changes were not correlated with patient-mediated observations regarding the time-dependent retentive efficacy of the attachments. One year of clinical wear appeared to have limited effect on the ball attachment tested. Conversely, longer periods of use led to marked modifications in shape of the matrix and patrix components. Int J Prosthodont 2011;24:270-272.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Cladistic analysis of continuous modularized traits provides phylogenetic signals in Homo evolution

Evolutionary novelties in the skeleton are usually expressed as changes in the timing of growth of features intrinsically integrated at different hierarchical levels of development(1). As a consequence, most of the shape- traits observed across species do vary quantitatively rather than qualitatively(2), in a multivariate space(3) and in a modularized way(4,5). Because most phylogenetic analyses normally use discrete, hypothetically independent characters(6), previous attempts have disregarded the phylogenetic signals potentially enclosed in the shape of morphological structures. When analysing low taxonomic levels, where most variation is quantitative in nature, solving basic requirements like the choice of characters and the capacity of using continuous, integrated traits is of crucial importance in recovering wider phylogenetic information. This is particularly relevant when analysing extinct lineages, where available data are limited to fossilized structures. Here we show that when continuous, multivariant and modularized characters are treated as such, cladistic analysis successfully solves relationships among main Homo taxa. Our attempt is based on a combination of cladistics, evolutionary- development- derived selection of characters, and geometric morphometrics methods. In contrast with previous cladistic analyses of hominid phylogeny, our method accounts for the quantitative nature of the traits, and respects their morphological integration patterns. Because complex phenotypes are observable across different taxonomic groups and are potentially informative about phylogenetic relationships, future analyses should point strongly to the incorporation of these types of trait.

Head shape evolution in Tropidurinae lizards: does locomotion constrain diet?

Different components of complex integrated systems may be specialized for different functions, and thus the selective pressures acting on the system as a whole may be conflicting and can ultimately constrain organismal performance and evolution. The vertebrate cranial system is one of the most striking examples of a complex system with several possible functions, being associated to activities as different as locomotion, prey capture, display and defensive behaviours. Therefore, selective pressures on the cranial system as a whole are possibly complex and may be conflicting. The present study focuses on the influence of potentially conflicting selective pressures (diet vs. locomotion) on the evolution of head shape in Tropidurinae lizards. For example, the expected adaptations leading to flat heads and bodies in species living on vertical structures may conflict with the need for improved bite performance associated with the inclusion of hard or tough prey into the diet, a common phenomenon in Tropidurinae lizards. Body size and six variables describing head shape were quantified in preserved specimens of 23 species, and information on diet and substrate usage was obtained from the literature. No phylogenetic signal was observed in the morphological data at any branch length tested, suggesting adaptive evolution of head shape in Tropidurinae. This pattern was confirmed by both factor analysis and independent contrast analysis, which suggested adaptive co-variation between the head shape and the inclusion of hard prey into the diet. In contrast to our expectations, habitat use did not constrain or drive head shape evolution in the group.

A new species of Lauromacromia (Odonata: Corduliidae) from Southeastern Brazil, with a cladistic analysis of the genus and comments on Neotropical dragonfly biogeography

Lauromacromia melanica sp. nov. from Conceicao da Barra municipality, Espirito Santo State, Brazil, is described and illustrated based on two males (both in MNRJ n degrees 135). The new species is similar to L. picinguaba differing from it mainly by the absence of pale spots on S3-6 and by the ellipsoid shape of metepisternal pale stripe. A key for males of all species of the genus is provided. A cladistic analysis encompassing 43 external morphological male characters carried out in two distinct procedures, the first with all characters unordered and the second with two or three state characters ordered. The unordered analysis generated only one most-parsimonious tree (66 steps of length, CI = 0.69, RI = 0.62). The hypothesis of monophyly of Lauromacromia is supported and includes three groups, one formed by the Atlantic Forest species (L. melanica sp. nov. + L. picinguaba), and another by the Cerrado species (L. flaviae + (L. bedei + L. luismoojeni)), and L. dubitalis, positioned in polytomy with these two groups. The ordered analysis also generated only one most-parsimonious tree (68 steps of length, CI = 0.70, RI = 0.67), which maintained the monophyly of Lauromacromia but L. dubitalis positioned basally as sister-group to the Atlantic Forest + Cerrado species groups. The geographic distribution of Lauromacromia is updated with a new record of L. luismoojeni based on one adult male (Brazil: Mato Grosso do Sul State) and probable first Brazilian records for L. dubitalis (Amazonas and Para States) based on two larvae. A vicariance hypothesis is proposed to explain spatial evolution of Lauromacromia, and based on current biogeographical classifications we consider Gomphomacromia and Rialla apart from Neotropical biota. Some aspects of biology and ecology of Lauromacromia are also discussed.

Immunohistochemical analysis of neuron types in the mouse small intestine

The definition of the nerve cell types of the myenteric plexus of the mouse small intestine has become important, as more researchers turn to the use of mice with genetic mutations to analyze roles of specific genes and their products in enteric nervous system function and to investigate animal models of disease. We have used a suite of antibodies to define neurons by their shapes, sizes, and neurochemistry in the myenteric plexus. Anti-Hu antibodies were used to reveal all nerve cells, and the major subpopulations were defined in relation to the Hu-positive neurons. Morphological Type II neurons, revealed by anti-neurofilament and anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide antibodies, represented 26% of neurons. The axons of the Type II neurons projected through the circular muscle and submucosa to the mucosa. The cell bodies were immunoreactive for choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), and their terminals were immunoreactive for vesicular acetylcholine transporter (VAChT). Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) occurred in 29% of nerve cells. Most were also immunoreactive for vasoactive intestinal peptide, but they were not tachykinin (TK)-immunoreactive, and only 10% were ChAT-immunoreactive. Numerous NOS terminals occurred in the circular muscle. We deduced that 90% of NOS neurons were inhibitory motor neurons to the muscle (26% of all neurons) and 10% (3% of all neurons) were interneurons. Calretinin immunoreactivity was found in a high proportion of neurons (52%). Many of these had TK immunoreactivity. Small calretinin neurons were identified as excitatory neurons to the longitudinal muscle (about 20% of neurons, with ChAT/calretinin/+/- TK chemical coding). Excitatory neurons to the circular muscle (about 10% of neurons) had the same coding. Calretinin immunoreactivity also occurred in a proportion of Type II neurons. Thus, over 90% of neurons in the myenteric plexus of the mouse small intestine can be currently identified by their neurochemistry and shape.

Topological multi-contour decomposition for image analysis and image retrieval

Successful classification, information retrieval and image analysis tools are intimately related with the quality of the features employed in the process. Pixel intensities, color, texture and shape are, generally, the basis from which most of the features are Computed and used in such fields. This papers presents a novel shape-based feature extraction approach where an image is decomposed into multiple contours, and further characterized by Fourier descriptors. Unlike traditional approaches we make use of topological knowledge to generate well-defined closed contours, which are efficient signatures for image retrieval. The method has been evaluated in the CBIR context and image analysis. The results have shown that the multi-contour decomposition, as opposed to a single shape information, introduced a significant improvement in the discrimination power. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Medical image retrieval based on complexity analysis

Texture is one of the most important visual attributes used in image analysis. It is used in many content-based image retrieval systems, where it allows the identification of a larger number of images from distinct origins. This paper presents a novel approach for image analysis and retrieval based on complexity analysis. The approach consists of a texture segmentation step, performed by complexity analysis through BoxCounting fractal dimension, followed by the estimation of complexity of each computed region by multiscale fractal dimension. Experiments have been performed with MRI database in both pattern recognition and image retrieval contexts. Results show the accuracy of the method and also indicate how the performance changes as the texture segmentation process is altered.

Multiscale Curvature Analysis of Asphaltic Aggregate Particles

A new method for characterization and analysis of asphaltic mixtures aggregate particles is reported. By relying on multiscale representation of the particles, curvature estimation, and discriminant analysis for optimal separation of the categories of mixtures, a particularly effective and comprehensive methodology is obtained. The potential of the methodology is illustrated with respect to three important types of particles used in asphaltic mixtures, namely basalt, gabbro, and gravel. The obtained results show that gravel particles are markedly distinct from the other two types of particles, with the gabbro category resulting with intermediate geometrical properties. The importance of each considered measurement in the discrimination between the three categories of particles was also quantified in terms of the adopted discriminant analysis.