Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Carta abierta sobre el litigio Artigue Patiño : réplica /

The author's commentary on two books published by E. Cabezas relating to the Artigue-Patiño litigation.

Circuit Court of the United States, district of Nebraska, the Kansas Pacific Railway Company, and the Denver Pacific Railway and Telegraph Company, vs. the Union Pacific Railroad Company : in equity /

Cover title.

In the Circuit Court of the United States, district of Nebraska, the Kansas Pacific Railway Company, and the Denver Pacific Railway and Telegraph Company, vs. the Union Pacific Railway Company : in equity /

Cover title.

Treasury decisions under tariff and navigation laws, etc.

Mode of access: Internet.

Treasury decisions under customs and other laws.

Vols. for <1904>-1926 include also decisions of the United States Board of General Appraisers.

Before the Interstate Commerce Commission : City of Spokane ... [and others], petitioners and complainants, vs. Northern Pacific Railway Company ... [and others], defendants; Canadian Pacific Railway Company ... [and others], defendants by order of commission; Pacific Coast Jobbers & Manufacturers' Association ... [and others], intervenors : reply brief of petitioners and complainants /

Cover title.

American cases on contract : arranged in accordance with the analysis of Anson on contract ... /

Mode of access: Internet.

Report on strengthening federal credit management /

Item 854

Xing an xin bian /

On double leaves, oriental style, in 3 cases.

Cases on the law of mortgages,

Mode of access: Internet.

Oscar Wilde : poems in prose and private letters ; including an intimate preface by his biographer, Frank Harris.

Includes facsimile of letter by Oscar Wilde in his handwriting.

A selection of cases on constitutional law,

"To accompany The general principles of constitutional law. By Thomas M. Cooley."

Biographie universelle, ancienne et moderne : ou, Histoire, par ordre alphabétique, de la vie publique et privée de tous les hommes qui se sont fait remarquer par leurs écrits, leurs actions, leurs talents, leurs vertus ou leurs crimes.

An account of the publishers litigation with Dedot frères regarding the use of the title "Biographie universelle": "La Biographie universelle et la contrefacon". v. 12. p. [ix]-xxvii.

Synopsis of the decisions of the Treasury Department on the construction of the tariff, navigation, and other laws for the year ended ...

Vols. for 1891-1897 include decisions of the United States Board of General Appraisers.