Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Arterial short-term travel time prediction using Bluetooth data

This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.

The Habitual Rhythms of Becoming-Involved: Insights into Participation Experiences in Urban Spaces by Children with Diverse Mobility

This chapter reports on a study that reveals the essence of participation in urban spaces by ten children who live with various physical conditions: Muscular Dystrophy, Cerebral Palsy, and Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases. These conditions affect muscle and movement differently resulting in diverse ways in which children move through space (personal mobility). The children at the time of the research were 9-12 years of age residing in South-east Queensland, Australia. The approach and methods selected for this study, interpretive phenomenological inquiry and grounded theory, were chosen for their capacity to capture the complexity and multiple interactions of the child’s urban living. The confronting and poignant accounts by children and their families of their experiences produced a new way of understanding the concept of participation, as a ‘journey of becoming involved.’ Their accounts of performing everyday routines (e.g. leaving home, getting in and out of the car, and entering places) in urban spaces (neighbourhood streets, schools, open spaces, shopping centres, and hospitals) revealed differences in the way settings were experienced. These differences were associated with the interplay between the body, space and context. Where interplays were problematic, explicit decisions about children’s involvement were made. These decisions were described in terms of ‘avoid going’, ‘pick and choose’, ‘discontinue’, ‘accept’, or ‘contest.’ What these decisions mean is some spaces are avoided, some journeys are discontinued, and some barriers encountered in journeys are normalised as everyday experiences, i.e. ‘tolerable discrimination’. These actions resulted in experiences of non-participation or partial–tokenistic participation. The key substantive contribution of the research lies in the identification of points in children’s journeys that shape participation experience. These points identify where future interventions in policy, programming and design can be made to make real and sustaining changes to lives of children and their families in geographies crucial to urban living.

Family Mobility : Reconciling Career Opportunities and Educational Strategy

Family mobility decisions reveal much about how the public and private realms of social life interact and change. This sociological study explores how contemporary families reconcile individual members’ career and education projects within the family unit over time and space, and unpacks the intersubjective constraints on workforce mobility. This Australian mixed methods study sampled Defence Force families and middle class professional families to illustrate how families’ educational projects are necessarily and deeply implicated in issues of workforce mobility and immobility, in complex ways. Defence families move frequently, often absorbing the stresses of moving through ‘viscous’ institutions as private troubles. In contrast, the selective mobility of middle class professional families and their ‘no go zones’ contribute to the public issue of poorly serviced rural communities. Families with different social, material and vocational resources at their disposal are shown to reflexively weigh the benefits and risks associated with moving differently. The book also explore how priorities shift as children move through educational phases. The families’ narratives offer empirical windows on larger social processes, such as the mobility imperative, the gender imbalance in the family’s intersubjective bargains, labour market credentialism, the social construction of place, and the family’s role in the reproduction of class structure.

Prediction of thermal expansion properties of carbon nanotubes using molecular dynamics simulations

The axial coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) of various carbon nanotubes (CNTs), i.e., single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and some multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), were predicted using molecular dynamics (MDs) simulations. The effects of two parameters, i.e., temperature and the CNT diameter, on CTE were investigated extensively. For all SWCNTs and MWCNTs, the obtained results clearly revealed that within a wide low temperature range, their axial CTEs are negative. As the diameter of CNTs decreases, this temperature range for negative axial CTEs becomes narrow, and positive axial CTEs appear in high temperature range. It was found that the axial CTEs vary nonlinearly with the temperature, however, they decrease linearly as the CNT diameter increases. Moreover, within a wide temperature range, a set of empirical formulations was proposed for evaluating the axial CTEs of armchair and zigzag SWCNTs using the above two parameters. Finally, it was found that the absolute value of the negative axial CTE of any MWCNT is much smaller than those of its constituent SWCNTs, and the average value of the CTEs of its constituent SWCNTs. The present fundamental study is very important for understanding the thermal behaviors of CNTs in such as nanocomposite temperature sensors, or nanoelectronics devices using CNTs.

Charge transport and density of trap states in balanced high mobility ambipolar organic thin-film transistors

We report on charge transport and density of trap states (trap DOS) in ambipolar diketopyrrolopyrrole-benzothiadiazole copolymer thin-film transistors. This semiconductor possesses high electron and hole field-effect mobilities of up to 0.6 cm 2/V-s. Temperature and gate-bias dependent field-effect mobility measurements are employed to extract the activation energies and trap DOS to understand its unique high mobility balanced ambipolar charge transport properties. The symmetry between the electron and hole transport characteristics, parameters and activation energies is remarkable. We believe that our work is the first charge transport study of an ambipolar organic/polymer based field-effect transistor with room temperature mobility higher than 0.1 cm 2/V-s in both electrons and holes.

High mobility top-gate and dual-gate polymer thin-film transistors based on diketopyrrolopyrrole-naphthalene copolymer

In this letter, the performance characteristics of top-gate and dual-gate thin-film transistors (TFTs) with active semiconductor layers consisting of diketopyrrolopyrrole-naphthalene copolymer are described. Optimized top-gate TFTs possess mobilities of up to 1 cm 2 /V s with low contact resistance and reduced hysteresis in air. Dual-gate devices possess higher drive currents as well as improved subthreshold and above threshold characteristics compared to single-gate devices. We also describe the reasons that dual-gate devices result in improved performance. The good stability of this polymer combined with their promising electrical properties make this material a very promising semiconductor for printable electronics.

Charge carrier velocity distributions in high mobility polymer field-effect transistors

In this letter, the velocity distributions of charge carriers in high-mobility polymer thin-film transistors (TFTs) with a diketopyrrolopyrrole- naphthalene copolymer (PDPP-TNT) semiconductor active layer are reported. The velocity distributions are found to be strongly dependent on measurement temperatures as well as annealing conditions. Considerable inhomogeneity is evident at low measurement temperatures and for low annealing temperatures. Such transient transport measurements can provide additional information about charge carrier transport in TFTs which are unavailable using steady-state transport measurements.

Charge-carrier velocity distributions in high-mobility polymer dual-gate thin-film transistors

We report charge-carrier velocity distributions in high-mobility polymer thin-film transistors (PTFTs) employing a dual-gate configuration. Our time-domain measurements of dual-gate PTFTs indicate higher effective mobility as well as fewer low-velocity carriers than in single-gate operation. Such nonquasi-static (NQS) measurements support and clarify the previously reported results of improved device performance in dual-gate devices by various groups. We believe that this letter demonstrates the utility of NQS measurements in studying charge-carrier transport in dual-gate thin-film transistors.

Charge transport study of high mobility polymer thin-film transistors based on thiophene substituted diketopyrrolopyrrole copolymers

In this paper, we report on the device physics and charge transport characteristics of high-mobility dual-gated polymer thin-film transistors with active semiconductor layers consisting of thiophene flanked DPP with thienylene-vinylene-thienylene (PDPP-TVT) alternating copolymers. Room temperature mobilities in these devices are high and can exceed 2 cm2 V-1 s-1. Steady-state and non-quasi-static measurements have been performed to extract key transport parameters and velocity distributions of charge carriers in this copolymer. Charge transport in this polymer semiconductor can be explained using a Multiple-Trap-and-Release or Monroe-type model. We also compare the activation energy vs. field-effect mobility in a few important polymer semiconductors to gain a better understanding of transport of DPP systems and make appropriate comparisons.

A high mobility P-type DPP-thieno[3,2-b]thiophene copolymer for organic thin-film transistors

A copolymer comprising 1,4-diketopyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole (DPP) and thieno[3,2-b]thiophene moieties, PDBT-co-TT, shows high hole mobility of up to 0.94 cm2 V-1 s-1 in organic thin-film transistors. The strong intermolecular interactions originated from π-π stacking and donor-acceptor interaction lead to the formation of interconnected polymer networks having an ordered lamellar structure, which have established highly efficient pathways for charge carrier transport.

High mobility diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP)-based organic semiconductor materials for organic thin film transistors and photovoltaics

In recent years, the electron-accepting diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) moiety has been receiving considerable attention for constructing donor-acceptor (D-A) type organic semiconductors for a variety of applications, particularly for organic thin film transistors (OTFTs) and organic photovoltaics (OPVs). Through association of the DPP unit with appropriate electron donating building blocks, the resulting D-A molecules interact strongly in the solid state through intermolecular D-A and π-π interactions, leading to highly ordered structures at the molecular and microscopic levels. The closely packed molecules and crystalline domains are beneficial for intermolecular and interdomain (or intergranular) charge transport. Furthermore, the energy levels can be readily adjusted, affording p-type, n-type, or ambipolar organic semiconductors with highly efficient charge transport properties in OTFTs. In the past few years, a number of DPP-based small molecular and polymeric semiconductors have been reported to show mobility close to or greater than 1 cm2 V -1 s-1. DPP-based polymer semiconductors have achieved record high mobility values for p-type (hole mobility: 10.5 cm2 V-1 s-1), n-type (electron mobility: 3 cm2 V-1 s-1), and ambipolar (hole/electron mobilities: 1.18/1.86 cm2 V-1 s-1) OTFTs among the known polymer semiconductors. Many DPP-based organic semiconductors have favourable energy levels and band gaps along with high hole mobility, which enable them as promising donor materials for OPVs. Power conversion efficiencies (PCE) of up to 6.05% were achieved for OPVs using DPP-based polymers, demonstrating their potential usefulness for the organic solar cell technology. This article provides an overview of the recent exciting progress made in DPP-containing polymers and small molecules that have shown high charge carrier mobility, around 0.1 cm2 V-1 s-1 or greater. It focuses on the structural design, optoelectronic properties, molecular organization, morphology, as well as performances in OTFTs and OPVs of these high mobility DPP-based materials.

Annealing-free high-mobility diketopyrrolopyrrole-quaterthiophene copolymer for solution-processed organic thin film transistors

A donor-acceptor polymer semiconductor, PDQT, comprising diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) and β-unsubstituted quaterthiophene (QT) for organic thin film transistors (OTFTs) is reported. This polymer forms ordered layer-by-layer lamellar packing with an edge-on orientation in thin films even without thermal annealing. The strong intermolecular interactions arising from the fused aromatic DPP moiety and the DPP-QT donor-acceptor interaction facilitate the spontaneous self-assembly of the polymer chains into close proximity and form a large π-π overlap, which are favorable for intermolecular charge hopping. The well-interconnected crystalline grains form efficient intergranular charge transport pathways. The desirable chemical, electronic, and morphological structures of PDQT bring about high hole mobility of up to 0.97 cm2/(V·s) in OTFTs with polymer thin films annealed at a mild temperature of 100 °C and similarly high mobility of 0.89 cm2/(V·s) for polymer thin films even without thermal annealing.

3,6-Di(furan-2-yl)pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4(2H,5H)-dione and bithiophene copolymer with rather disordered chain orientation showing high mobility in organic thin film transistors

Pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4(2H,5H)-dione or diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) is a useful electron-withdrawing fused aromatic moiety for the preparation of donor-acceptor polymers as active semiconductors for organic electronics. This study uses a DPP-furan-containing building block, 3,6-di(furan-2-yl)pyrrolo[3,4- c]pyrrole-1,4(2H,5H)-dione (DBF), to couple with a 2,2′-bithiophene unit, forming a new donor-acceptor copolymer, PDBFBT. Compared to its structural analogue, 3,6-di(thiophen-2-yl)pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4(2H,5H)-dione (DBT), DBF is found to cause blue shifts of the absorption spectra both in solution and in thin films and a slight reduction of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) energy level of the resulting PDBFBT. Despite the fact that its thin films are less crystalline and have a rather disordered chain orientation in the crystalline domains, PDBFBT shows very high hole mobility up to 1.54 cm 2 V-1 s-1 in bottom-gate, top-contact organic thin film transistors.

A furan-containing conjugated polymer for high mobility ambipolar organic thin film transistors

Furan substituted diketopyrrolopyrrole (DBF) combined with benzothiadiazole based polymer semiconductor PDPP-FBF has been synthesized and evaluated as an ambipolar semiconductor in organic thin-film transistors. Hole and electron mobilities as high as 0.20 cm 2 V -1 s -1 and 0.56 cm 2 V -1 s -1, respectively, are achieved for PDPP-FBF.