Approximating fractional derivatives through the generalized mean

This paper addresses the calculation of fractional order expressions through rational fractions. The article starts by analyzing the techniques adopted in the continuous to discrete time conversion. The problem is re-evaluated in an optimization perspective by tacking advantage of the degree of freedom provided by the generalized mean formula. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Licensing in an international market

We study the effects of entry of a foreign firm on domestic welfare in the presence of licensing, when the entrant is technologically superior to the incumbent. We show that foreign entry increases domestic welfare for sufficiently large technological differences between the firms under both fixed-fee licensing and royalty licensing.

Is it possible to remove polymeric nanoparticles from aqueous paints during the activated sludge treatment?

The market for emulsion polymers (latexes) is large and growing at the expense of other manufacturing processes that emit higher amounts of volatile organic solvents. The paint industry is not an exception and solvent-borne paints have been gradually substituted by aqueous paints. In their life-cycle, much of the aqueous paint used for architectural or decorative purposes will eventually be discharged into wastewater treatment facilities, where its polymeric nanoparticles (mainly acrylic and styrene-acrylic) can work as xenobiotics to the microbial communities present in activated sludge. It is well established that these materials are biocompatible at macroscopic scale. But is their behaviour the same at nanoscale? What happens to the polymeric nanoparticles during the activated sludge process? Do nanoparticles agregate and are discharged together with the sludge or remain in emulsion? How do microorganisms interact with these nanoparticles? Are nanoparticles degradated by them? Are they adsorbed? Are these nanoparticles toxic to the microbial community? To study the influence of these xenobiotics in the activated sludge process, an emulsion of cross-linked poly(butyl methacrylate) nanoparticles of ca. 50 nm diameter was produced and used as model compound. Activated sludge from a wastewater treatment plant was tested by the OCDE’s respiration inhibition test using several concentrations of PBMA nanoparticles. Particle aggregation was followed by Dynamic Light Scattering and microorganism surfaces were observed by Atomic Force Microscopy. Using sequential batch reactors (SBRs) and continuous reactors, both inoculated with activated sludge, the consumption of carbon, ammonia, nitrite and nitrate was monitored and compared, in the presence and absence of nanoparticles. No particles were detected in all treated waters by Dynamic Light Scattering. This can either mean that microorganisms can efficiently remove all polymer nanoparticles or that nanoparticles tend to aggregate and be naturally removed by precipitation. Nevertheless respiration inhibition tests demonstrated that microorganisms consume more oxygen in the presence of nanoparticles, which suggests a stress situation. It was also observed a slight decrease in the efficiency of nitrification in the presence of nanoparticles. AFM images showed that while the morphology of some organisms remained the same both in the presence and absence of nanoparticles, others assumed a rough surface with hilly like shapes of ca. 50 nm when exposed to nanoparticles. Nanoparticles are thus likely to be either incorporated or adsorbed at the surface of some organisms, increasing the overall respiration rate and decreasing nitrification efficiency. Thus, despite its biocompatibility at macroscopic scale, PBMA is likely to be no longer innocuous at nanoscale.

How market power affects the behaviour of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead electricity market?

The integration of large amounts of wind energy in power systems raises important operation issues such as the balance between power demand and generation. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are seen as one solution for this issue, avoiding the need for wind power curtailments. However, the behavior of a PSH unit might differ considerably when it operates in a liberalized market with some degree of market power. In this regard, a new approach for the optimal daily scheduling of a PSH unit in the day-ahead electricity market was developed and presented in this paper, in which the market power is modeled by a residual inverse demand function with a variable elasticity. The results obtained show that increasing degrees of market power of the PSH unit correspond to decreasing levels of storage and, therefore, the capacity to integrate wind power is considerably reduced under these circumstances.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

The portuguese pharmaceutial market in the near future - A time series exploration approach

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Designing market-based instruments for biodiversity conservation: learning with the Australian experience and evaluating Portugal's potential

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

App mobile “My Corine de Farme”

Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Previsão de diagramas de carga via Holt-Winters com três sazonalidades

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Determinantes da estrutura de capitais do setor do calçado em Portugal

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Characterisation of noisy speech channels in 2G and 3G mobile networks

As the wireless cellular market reaches competitive levels never seen before, network operators need to focus on maintaining Quality of Service (QoS) a main priority if they wish to attract new subscribers while keeping existing customers satisfied. Speech Quality as perceived by the end user is one major example of a characteristic in constant need of maintenance and improvement. It is in this topic that this Master Thesis project fits in. Making use of an intrusive method of speech quality evaluation, as a means to further study and characterize the performance of speech codecs in second-generation (2G) and third-generation (3G) technologies. Trying to find further correlation between codecs with similar bit rates, along with the exploration of certain transmission parameters which may aid in the assessment of speech quality. Due to some limitations concerning the audio analyzer equipment that was to be employed, a different system for recording the test samples was sought out. Although the new designed system is not standard, after extensive testing and optimization of the system's parameters, final results were found reliable and satisfactory. Tests include a set of high and low bit rate codecs for both 2G and 3G, where values were compared and analysed, leading to the outcome that 3G speech codecs perform better, under the approximately same conditions, when compared with 2G. Reinforcing the idea that 3G is, with no doubt, the best choice if the costumer looks for the best possible listening speech quality. Regarding the transmission parameters chosen for the experiment, the Receiver Quality (RxQual) and Received Energy per Chip to the Power Density Ratio (Ec/N0), these were subject to speech quality correlation tests. Final results of RxQual were compared to those of prior studies from different researchers and, are considered to be of important relevance. Leading to the confirmation of RxQual as a reliable indicator of speech quality. As for Ec/N0, it is not possible to state it as a speech quality indicator however, it shows clear thresholds for which the MOS values decrease significantly. The studied transmission parameters show that they can be used not only for network management purposes but, at the same time, give an expected idea to the communications engineer (or technician) of the end-to-end speech quality consequences. With the conclusion of the work new ideas for future studies come to mind. Considering that the fourth-generation (4G) cellular technologies are now beginning to take an important place in the global market, as the first all-IP network structure, it seems of great relevance that 4G speech quality should be subject of evaluation. Comparing it to 3G, not only in narrowband but also adding wideband scenarios with the most recent standard objective method of speech quality assessment, POLQA. Also, new data found on Ec/N0 tests, justifies further research studies with the intention of validating the assumptions made in this work.