High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Social-cognitive and perceived environment influences associated with physical activity in older Australians

Background, Regular physical activity in older adults can facilitate healthy aging, improve functional capacity, and prevent disease. However, factors associated with physical inactivity in older populations are poorly understood. This study attempts to identify social-cognitive and perceived environmental influences associated with physical activity participation in older populations. Methods. In a randomly selected sample of 449 Australian adults age 60 and older, we assessed self-reported physical activity and a range of social-cognitive and perceived environmental factors. Respondents were classified as sufficiently active and inactive based on energy expenditure estimates (kcal/week) derived from self-reported physical activity. Two logistic regression models, with and without self-efficacy included, were conducted to identify modifiable independent predictors of physical activity. Results. Significantly more males than females were physically active. Physical activity participation was related to age with a greater proportion of those age 65-69 being active than those age 60-64 or 70 or older. High self-efficacy, regular participation of friends and family, finding footpaths safe for walking, and access to local facilities were significantly associated with being active. Conclusion. Identifying predictors of physical activity in older populations, particularly social support, facility access, and neighbourhood safety, can inform the development of policy and intervention strategies to promote the health of older people. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

The serotonin transporter gene and Parkinson's disease

Dysfunction in the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) system and reduced serotonin concentrations have been reported in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Serotonin concentrations in neural tissue are controlled by a presynaptic serotonin transporter protein that is encoded by a single gene. Therefore, we investigated whether a polymorphic region in the serotonin transporter gene is associated with PD. Three variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) elements of the serotonin transporter gene were detected by polymerase chain reaction, those with 9, 10, 11 and 12 copies of the repeat element. The 10-copy VNTR element was significantly less common in patients with PD than controls in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences between patients (n = 198) and controls (n = 200) in the distribution frequencies of 9-and 12-copy alleles and combined genotypes (odds ratio = 1.20; p = 1.71). A positive family history of PD was a strong predictor of disease risk (odds ratio = 2.98; 95% confidence interval 1.51-5.87; p = 0.001). Although slight differences were observed between patient and control groups, these data suggest that defects in serotonin concentrations in patients with PD are unlikely to be due to polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene in this large Australian cohort; however, the inverse association observed with the 10-copy allele warrants further investigation. Copyright (C) 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity

Background. International research indicates that blue-collar employees typically exhibit lower rates of leisure-time physical activity. While lack of time and work demands are commonly reported barriers to activity, the extent to which time-at-work mediates the relationship between occupation and leisure-time physical activity is unclear. This study investigated the association between occupation, time spent in paid employment, and participation in leisure-time physical activity. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 1995 Australian Health Survey, focusing on employed persons ages 18-64 years (n = 24,454), Occupation was coded as per the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations and collapsed into three categories (professional, white-collar, blue-collar). Hours worked was categorized into eight levels, ranging from 1-14 to more than 50 h per week. Participation in leisure-time physical activity was categorized as either insufficient or sufficient for health, consistent with recommended levels of energy expenditure (1600 METS-min/fortnight). The relationship between occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity was examined using logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately for male and female, and the results are presented as a series of models that successively adjust for a range of potential covariates: age, living arrangement, smoking status, body mass index, and self-reported health. Results. Individuals in blue-collar occupations were approximately 50% more likely to be classified as insufficiently active. This occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity was not explained by hours worked. There was a suggested relationship between hours worked and leisure-time physical activity; however, this differed between men and women, and was difficult to interpret. Conclusions. Occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity cannot be explained by hours worked. Therefore, reports that work constitutes a barrier to participation should be explored further. Identification of the factors contributing to occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity will add to our understanding of why population subgroups differ in their health risk profiles, and assist in the development of health promotion strategies to reduce rates of sedentariness and health inequalities. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Cervical screening in migrants to Australia

Objective: To examine differentials and time trends in self-reported Pap test rates by migrant status from the 1989/90 and 1995 Australian National Health Surveys (NHS). Method: Unit record data for females with the variables of interest were extracted from the 1989/90 and 1995 NHS and combined. The dichotomous outcome variables were 'ever had a Pap test and 'had a Pap test within three years'. The principal study factor was country-of-birth, but language spoken at home (English or not) was also examined. The indirect age-standardised screening ratio was used to calculate proportions of 'ever had a Pap test' and 'had a Pap test within three years' and differences were tested statistically using logistic regression analysis for each year of survey by migrant status. Results: Odds ratios for rates of reporting 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly lower in women born in southern Europe, Italy, other countries, southern Asia, Middle East, Greece and South-East Asia compared with Australian-born. Reported rates of 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly higher in the 1995 NHS (p

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Initial results of ultrasound screening for aneurysm of the abdominal aorta in Western Australia: relevance for endoluminal treatment of aneurysm disease

Background. Increased life expectancy in men during the last thirty years is largely due to the decrease in mortality from cardiovascular disease in the age group 29-69 yr. This change has resulted in a change in the disease profile of the population with conditions such as aneurysm of the abdominal aorta (AAA) becoming more prevalent. The advent of endoluminal treatment for AAA has encouraged prophylactic intervention and fuelled the argument to screen for the disease. The feasibility of inserting an endoluminal graft is dependent on the morphology and growth characteristics of the aneurysm. This study used data from a randomized controlled trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in men aged 65-83 yr in Western Australia for the purpose of determining the norms of the living anatomy in the pressurized infrarenal aorta. Aims. To examine (1) the diameters of the infra-renal aorta in aneurysmal and non-aneurysmal cases, (2) the implications for treatment modalities, with particular reference to endoluminal grafting, which is most dependent on normal and aneurysmal morphology, and (3) any evidence to support the notion that northern Europeans are predisposed to aneurysmal disease. Methods. Using ultrasound, a randomized control trial was established in Western Australia to assess the value of a screening program in males aged 65-83 yr, The infra-renal aorta was defined as aneurysmal if the maximum diameter was 30 mm or more. Aortic diameter was modelled both as a continuous tin mm) and as a binary outcome variable, for those men who had an infra-renal diameter of 30 mm or more. ANOVA and linear regression were used for modelling aortic diameter as a continuum, while chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used in comparing men with and without the diagnosis of AAA. Findings. By December 1998, of 19.583 men had been invited to undergo ultrasound screening for AAA, 12.203 accepted the invitation (corrected response fraction 70.8%). The prevalence of AAA increased with age from 4.8% at 65 yr to 10.8% at 80 yr (chi (2) = 77.9, df = 3, P<0.001). The median (IQR) diameter for the non-aneurysmal group was 21.4 mm (3.3 mm) and there was an increase (<chi>(2) = 76.0, df = 1, P<0.001) in the diameter of the infra-renal aorta with age. Since 27 mm is the 95th centile for the non-aneurysmal infra-renal aorta, a diameter of 30 mm or more is justified as defining an aneurysm. The risk of AAA was higher in men of Australian (OR = 1.0) and northern European origin (OR = 1.0, 95%CL: 0.9. 1.2) compared with those of Mediterranean origin (OR = 0.5, 99%CL: 0.4, 0.7). Conclusion. Although screening has not yet been shown to reduce mortality from AAA. these population-based data assist the understanding of aneurysmal disease and the further development and use of endoluminal grafts for this condition. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery.

Variation in cervical cancer screening by region, socio-economic, migrant and Indigenous status in women in New South Wales

The purpose of this study was to estimate the extent of association of cervical screening in NSW women with socio-economic status (SES), rurality, and proportions of non-English speaking background (NESB) and Indigenous status. Data on women who had at least one Pap test over two years (January 1998-December 1999) were obtained from the NSW Pap test Register. Each local government area (LGA) was allocated to categories of population proportions of NESB and Indigenous status, a rurality classification based on population density and remoteness, and to an SES quintile. The odds ratios (OR) of having a Pap test were estimated and confounding adjusted by multiple logistic regression analysis. Implied Pap test rates in urban NESB and in rural Indigenous women were estimated from the modelled estimates. The adjusted OR for a Pap test in large rural centres (1.14) was significantly higher than those for metropolitan or capital city residents (0.9 and 1.0 respectively). Adjusted OR for a Pap test in other rural centres (0.73) and other remote areas (0.64) were significantly lower than those for metropolitan or capital city residents. In urban populations the lowest OR were in areas with both low SES and high proportion of NESB. The lowest OR for Pap screening in rural populations occurred in the most remote areas with the highest proportion of Indigenous women. For urban NESB women the biennial Pap test rate was estimated as 50%, and for rural Indigenous women 29%, compared with the NSW average of 59%.

No association between the deficit syndrome in psychosis and summer birth in the Southern Hemisphere

Recent studies have shown that individuals with schizophrenia who are born in summer have an increased odds of have deficit syndrome versus nondeficit syndrome. This study extends this work to examiningthis issue in patients from the Southern Hemisphere. Data which included OPCRITrSCAN items and demographic information was obtained for Australian-born cases from the Australian National Mental Health Survey. Followingpreviously published methods, cases were assigned to the deficit group Žns153.or non-deficit groupŽns228.. A logistic regression analysis was used to ascertain whether beingborn in summer ŽDecember, January, February.in the Southern Hemisphere altered the odds of havingdeficit syndrome. There was no association between summer birth and odds of havingdeficit versus non-deficit schizophrenia ŽOdds Ratios0.75, 95% CI 0.49–1.16.. Based on our previous work showingthat the size of the winterrspringbirth excess in schizophrenia is reduced in the Southern Hemisphere, we speculate that factors that influence the association between summer birth and non-deficit syndrome may also vary across geography andror latitude. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Finger and A-B ridge count, and fluctuating asymmetry in psychosis: A catchment area case-control study

Dermatoglyphic measures are of interest to schizophrenia research because they serve as persistent markers of deviant development in foetal life. Several studies have reported alterations in A–B ridge counts, total finger ridge counts and measures related to asymmetry in schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to assess these measures in an Australian catchment area, case-control study. Individuals with psychosisŽns246.were drawn from a catchment-area prevalence study, and well controlsŽns229. were recruited from the same area. Finger and palm prints were taken usingan inkless technique and all dermatoglyphic measures were assessed by a trained rater blind to case status. The dermatoglyphic measures Žfinger ridge count, A–B ridge count, and their derived asymmetry measures. were divided into quartiles based on the distribution of these variables in controls. The main analysis Žlogistic regression controlled for age and sex.examined all psychotic disorders, with planned subgroup analyses comparing controls with Ž1. nonaffective psychosis Žschizophrenia, delusional disorder, schizophreniform psychosis, atypical psychosis.andŽ2. affective psychosis Ždepression with psychosis, bipolar disorder, schizoaffective psychosis.. There were no statistically significant alterations in the odds of havinga psychotic disorder for any of the dermatoglyphic measures. The results did not change when we examined affective and nonaffective psychosis separately. The dermatoglyphic features that distinguish schizophreniar psychosis in other studies were not identified in this Australian study. Regional variations in these findings may provide clues to differential ethnicrgenetic and environmental factors that are associated with schizophrenia. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Colonization and risk factors for Brachyspira aalborgi and Brachyspira pilosicoli in humans and dogs on tea estates in Assam, India

The prevalence of colonization with the anaerobic intestinal spirochaetes Brachyspira aalborgi and Brachyspira pilosicoli was investigated in humans (n = 316) and dogs (n = 101) living on three tea estates in Assam, India. Colonization was detected using PCR on DNA from faeces. Nineteen (6%) human faecal samples contained B. aalborgi DNA, 80 (25.3%) contained B. pilosicoli DNA, and 10 (3.2%) contained DNA from both species. One canine sample contained DNA from B. pilosicoli. Significant factors for B. aalborgi colonization in logistic regression were: infection of family members with B. aalborgi (P < 0.001), being a resident of Balipara (P = 0.03), and use of water treatment (P = 0.03). For B. pilosicoli, significant factors were: other family members being positive for B. pilosicoli (P < 0.001), water obtained from a well (P = 0.006), water treatment (P = 0.03), and not having visited a doctor in the previous 12 months (P = 0.03).

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatic Steatosis, Obesity, and the Metabolic Syndrome Are Independently and Additively Associated With Increased Systemic Inflammation

Objective-The goal of this study was to assess the independent and collective associations of hepatic steatosis, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome with elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels. Methods and Results-We evaluated 2388 individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease between December 2004 and December 2006. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasound, and the metabolic syndrome was defined using National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria. The cut point of >= 3 mg/L was used to define high hs-CRP. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the independent and collective associations of hepatic steatosis, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome with high hs-CRP. Steatosis was detected in 32% of participants, 23% met criteria for metabolic syndrome, and 17% were obese. After multivariate regression, hepatic steatosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.07; 95% CI 1.68 to 2.56), obesity (OR 3.00; 95% CI 2.39 to 3.80), and the metabolic syndrome (2.39; 95% CI 1.88 to 3.04) were all independently associated with high hs-CRP. Combinations of these factors were associated with an additive increase in the odds of high hs-CRP, with individuals with 1, 2, and 3 factors having ORs for high hs-CRP of 1.92 (1.49 to 2.48), 3.38 (2.50 to 4.57), and 4.53 (3.23 to 6.35), respectively. Conclusion-Hepatic steatosis, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome are independently and additively associated with increased odds of high hs-CRP levels. (Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2011; 31: 1927-1932.)

Coronary Calcification Is Associated With Lower Bone Formation Rate in CKD Patients Not Yet in Dialysis Treatment

Vascular calcification is a strong prognostic marker of mortality in hemodialysis patients and has been associated with bone metabolism disorders in this population. In earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD), vascular calcification also has been documented. This study evaluated the association between coronary artery calcification (CAC) and bone histomorphometric parameters in CKD predialysis patients assessed by multislice coronary tomography and by undecalcified bone biopsy. CAC was detected in 33 (66%) patients, and their median calcium score was 89.7 (0.4-2299.3 AU). The most frequent bone histologic alterations observed included low trabecular bone volume, increased eroded and osteoclast surfaces, and low bone-formation rate (BFR/BS). Multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes, showed that BFR/BS was independently associated with the presence of coronary calcification [p=.009; odd ratio (OR) = 0.15; 95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.036-0.619] This study showed a high prevalence of CAC in asymptomatic predialysis CKD patients. Also, there was an independent association of low bone formation and CAC in this population. In conclusion, our results provide evidence that low bone-formation rate constitutes another nontraditional risk factor for cardiovascular disease in CKD patients. 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy: A post hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter observational study

Objectives: To describe current practice for the discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting and to identify variables associated with successful discontinuation. The approach to discontinue continuous renal replacement therapy may affect patient outcomes. However, there is lack of information on how and under what conditions continuous renal replacement therapy is discontinued. Design: Post hoc analysis of a prospective observational study. Setting. Fifty-four intensive care units in 23 countries. Patients: Five hundred twenty-nine patients (52.6%) who survived initial therapy among 1006 patients treated with continuous renal replacement therapy. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results., Three hundred thirteen patients were removed successfully from continuous renal replacement therapy and did not require any renal replacement therapy for at least 7 days and were classified as the ""success"" group and the rest (216 patients) were classified as the ""repeat-RRT"" (renal replacement therapy) group. Patients in the ""success"" group had lower hospital mortality (28.5% vs. 42.7%, p < .0001) compared with patients in the ""repeat-RRT"" group. They also had lower creatinine and urea concentrations and a higher urine output at the time of stopping continuous renal replacement therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy identified urine output (during the 24 hrs before stopping continuous renal replacement therapy: odds ratio, 1.078 per 100 mL/day increase) and creatinine (odds ratio, 0.996 per mu mol/L increase) as significant predictors of successful cessation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy was 0.808 for urine output and 0.635 for creatinine. The predictive ability of urine output was negatively affected by the use of diuretics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.671 with diuretics and 0.845 without diuretics). Conclusions. We report on the current practice of discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting. Urine output at the time of initial cessation (if continuous renal replacement therapy was the most important predictor of successful discontinuation, especially if occurring without the administration of diuretics. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2576-2582)