971 resultados para MATHEMATICAL MODELING


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Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number (R0) estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration. © 2013 Laporta et al.

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Purpose: The aim of this study was to verify whether there is an association between anaerobic running capacity (ARC) values, estimated from two-parameter models, and maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) in army runners. Methods: Eleven, trained, middle distance runners who are members of the armed forces were recruited for the study (20 ± 1 years). They performed a critical velocity test (CV) for ARC estimation using three mathematical models and an MAOD test, both tests were applied on a motorized treadmill. Results: The MAOD was 61.6 ± 5.2 mL/kg (4.1 ± 0.3 L). The ARC values were 240.4 ± 18.6 m from the linear velocity-inverse time model, 254.0 ± 13.0 m from the linear distance-time model, and 275.2 ± 9.1 m from the hyperbolic time-velocity relationship (nonlinear 2-parameter model), whereas critical velocity values were 3.91 ± 0.07 m/s, 3.86 ± 0.08 m/s and 3.80 ± 0.09 m/s, respectively. There were differences (P < 0.05) for both the ARC and the CV values when compared between velocity-inverse time linear and nonlinear 2-parameter mathematical models. The different values of ARC did not significantly correlate with MAOD. Conclusion: In conclusion, estimated ARC did not correlate with MAOD, and should not be considered as an anaerobic measure of capacity for treadmill running. © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA