Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

Risk sensitivity in a motor task with speed-accuracy trade-off.

When a racing driver steers a car around a sharp bend, there is a trade-off between speed and accuracy, in that high speed can lead to a skid whereas a low speed increases lap time, both of which can adversely affect the driver's payoff function. While speed-accuracy trade-offs have been studied extensively, their susceptibility to risk sensitivity is much less understood, since most theories of motor control are risk neutral with respect to payoff, i.e., they only consider mean payoffs and ignore payoff variability. Here we investigate how individual risk attitudes impact a motor task that involves such a speed-accuracy trade-off. We designed an experiment where a target had to be hit and the reward (given in points) increased as a function of both subjects' endpoint accuracy and endpoint velocity. As faster movements lead to poorer endpoint accuracy, the variance of the reward increased for higher velocities. We tested subjects on two reward conditions that had the same mean reward but differed in the variance of the reward. A risk-neutral account predicts that subjects should only maximize the mean reward and hence perform identically in the two conditions. In contrast, we found that some (risk-averse) subjects chose to move with lower velocities and other (risk-seeking) subjects with higher velocities in the condition with higher reward variance (risk). This behavior is suboptimal with regard to maximizing the mean number of points but is in accordance with a risk-sensitive account of movement selection. Our study suggests that individual risk sensitivity is an important factor in motor tasks with speed-accuracy trade-offs.

Trade secrets: a ten year overview of the illegal import of sea turtle products into the United States

For more than 25 years all sea turtle products have been prohibited from international commerce by the 170-member nations of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). Sea turtles continue to be threatened by direct take (including poaching) and illegal trade despite multi-national protection efforts. Although take may contribute significantly to sea turtle decline, illegal take is difficult to measure since there are few quantified records associated with legal fisheries and fewer still for illegal take (poaching). We can, however, quantify one portion of the illegal sea turtle trade by determining how many illegal products were seized at United States ports of entry over a recent 10-year period. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) oversees the import and export of wildlife and wildlife products, ensuring that wildlife trade complies with United States laws and international treaties. Additionally, the USFWS has legal authority to target suspected illegal wildlife activity through undercover and field investigations. In an effort to assess the scale of illegal sea turtle take and trade, we have conducted a 10-year (1994 – 2003) review of the law enforcement database maintained by the USFWS. This database tracks the number and type of wildlife cases, the quantity of seized products, and the penalties assessed against violators. These data are minimum estimates of the sea turtle products passing through the United States borders, as smuggled wildlife is oftentimes not detected.

Long-term changes in the equatorial Pacific trade winds [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Past work has shown that surface zonal equatorial wind stress, zonally integrated from one side of the Pacific to the other, is the key variable for estimating long-term El Niño behavior in the eastern Pacific. ... We used detrended COADS pressure in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific and post-1960 detrended Florida State University equatorial wind stress zonally averaged across the Pacific to verify this relationship.

Socio-economic implications of the fish export trade in Uganda

Implications of the fish export trade on the people and the fisheries resource of Lake Victoria, Uganda were examined. Eight fish processing factories and ninety fishers were analyzed in terms of socio-economic characteristics of fishers and the economic characteristics of fish factories. Results indicated that industrial fish processors in Uganda are presently the main link between the artisanal fisher-folk and the overseas export markets. Their entry into the market has stabilized and expanded the fisher-folk market and average earnings. Fishers attributed improvement in incomes and living standards (76%) to positive changes in the fish market (78%) in the last 5 years (1994-1999). Ugandan fisher-folk communities are not seriously affected by the Nile perch exports (73%) because they normally have easy access to cheap fish at prices much less than urban prices and; depend mainly on alternative fish species of less export value. The price of Nile perch influences positively the price of Tilapia

Survey of the regional fish trade

Fish export trade,both regional and international, has significantly contributed to uganda's economic growth and to the livehoods of many Ugandans in terms of revenue and employment. while there is substantive information on local and international fish trade on which decsions could be based to appropriately develop the trade,informatrion on regional fish export trade is lacking and where avaliable,it has not been adequately documented. This report contains the findings of the survey on regional fish trade at the border district of West Nile,South/Western and Eastern regions key markets and selected fish supply beaches on Lake Victoria.