Stable-Isotope Time Series and Precipitation Origin from Firn-Core and Snow Samples, Altai Glaciers, Siberia

In the summers of 2001 and 2002, glacio-climatological research was performed at 4110-4120 m a.s.l. on the Belukha snow/firn plateau, Siberian Altai. Hundreds of samples from snow pits and a 21 m snow/firn core were collected to establish the annual/seasonal/monthly depth-accumulation scale, based on stable-isotope records, stratigraphic analyses and meteorological and synoptic data. The fluctuations of water stable-isotope records show well-preserved seasonal variations. The delta(18)O and delta D relationships in precipitation, snow pits and the snow/firn core have the same slope to the covariance as that of the global meteoric water line. The origins of precipitation nourishing the Belukha plateau were determined based on clustering analysis of delta(18)O and d-excess records and examination of synoptic atmospheric patterns. Calibration and validation of the developed clusters occurred at event and monthly timescales with about 15% uncertainty. Two distinct moisture sources were shown: oceanic sources with d-excess < 12 parts per thousand, and the Aral-Caspian closed drainage basin sources with d-excess > 12 parts per thousand. Two-thirds of the annual accumulation was from oceanic precipitation, of which more than half had isotopic ratios corresponding to moisture evaporated over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation from the Arctic/Pacific Ocean had the lowest deuterium excess, contributing one-tenth to annual accumulation.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

The Career Satisfaction Scale: Longitudinal measurement invariance and latent growth analysis

The present research analyses the adequacy of the widely used Career Satisfaction Scale (CSS; Greenhaus, Parasuraman, & Wormley, 1990) for measuring change over time. We used data of a sample of 1,273 professionals over a 5-year time period. First, we tested longitudinal measurement invariance of the CSS. Second, we analysed changes in career satisfaction by means of multiple indicator latent growth modelling (MLGM). Results revealed that the CSS can be reliably used in mean change analyses. Altogether, career satisfaction was relatively stable over time; however, we found significant variance in intra-individual growth trajectories and a negative correlation between the initial level of and changes in career satisfaction. Professionals who were initially highly satisfied became less satisfied over time. Theoretical and practical implications with respect to the construct of career satisfaction and its development over time (i.e., alpha, beta, and gamma change) are discussed.

The Moderating Role of Electoral Pressure on Congressional Ideological Polarization: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis

Reelection and self-interest are recurring themes in the study of our congressional leaders. To date, many studies have already been done on the trends between elections, party affiliation, and voting behavior in Congress. However, because a plethora of data has been collected on both elections and congressional voting, the ability to draw a connection between the two provides a very reasonable prospect. This project analyzes whether voting shifts in congressional elections have an effect on congressional voting. Will a congressman become ideologically more polarized when his electoral margins increase? Essentially, this paper assumes that all congressmen are ideologically polarized, and it is elections which serve to reel congressmen back toward the ideological middle. The election and ideological data for this study, which spans from the 56th to the 107th Congress, finds statistically significant relationships between these two variables. In fact, congressman pay attention to election returns when voting in Congress. When broken down by party, Democrats are more exhibitive of this phenomenon, which suggest that Democrats may be more likely to intrinsically follow the popular model of representation. Meanwhile, it can be hypothesized that insignificant results for Republicans indicate that Republicans may follow a trustee model of representation.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Atmospheric and seawater carbon dioxide at time series station DYFAMED

A time series of fCO2, SST, and fluorescence data was collected between 1995 and 1997 by a CARIOCA buoy moored at the DyFAMed station (Dynamique des Flux Atmospheriques en Mediterranée) located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. On seasonal timescales, the spring phytoplankton bloom decreases the surface water fCO2 to approximately 290 µatm, followed by summer heating and a strong increase in fCO2 to a maximum of approximately 510 µatm. While the DELTA fCO2 shows strong variations on seasonal timescales, the annual average air-sea disequilibrium is only 2 µatm. Temperature-normalized fCO2 shows a continued decrease in dissolved CO2 throughout the summer and fall at a rate of approximately 0.6 µatm/d. The calculated annual air-sea CO2 transfer rate is -0.10 to -0.15 moles CO2 m-2 y-1, with these low values reflecting the relatively weak wind speed regime and small annual air-sea fCO2 disequilibrium. Extrapolating this rate over the whole Mediterranean Sea would lead to a flux of approximately -3 * 10**12 to -4.5 * 10**12 grams C/y, in good agreement with other estimates. An analysis of the effects of sampling frequency on annual air-sea CO2 flux estimates showed that monthly sampling is adequate to resolve the annual CO2 flux to within approximately ±10 - 18% at this site. Annual flux estimates made using temperature-derived fCO2 based on the measured fCO2-SST correlations are in agreement with measurement-based calculations to within ± 7-10% (depending on the gas transfer parameterization used), and suggest that annual CO2 flux estimates may be reasonably well predicted in this region from satellite or model-derived SST and wind speed information.

Collection of data on particulate and dissolved soil phosphorus in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, time series since 2002)

This data set contains two time series of measurements of dissolved phosphorus (organic, inorganic and total with a biweekly resolution) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus with a seasonal resolution. In addition, data on phosphorus from soil samples measured in 2007 and fractionated by different acid-extrations (Hedley fractions) are provided. All data measured at the main experiment plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment; see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. 1. Dissolved phosphorus in soil solution: Suction plates installed on the field site in 10, 20, 30 and 60 cm depth were used to sample soil pore water. Cumulatively extracted soil solution was collected every two weeks from October 2002 to May 2006. The biweekly samples from 2002, 2003 and 2004 were analyzed for dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (PO4P) and dissolved total phosphorus (TDP) by Continuous Flow Analyzer (CFA SAN ++, SKALAR [Breda, The Netherlands]). 2. Seasonal values of dissolved inorganic phosphorus in soil solution were calculated as volume-weighted mean values of the biweekly measurements (spring = March to May, summer = June to August, fall = September to November, winter = December to February). 3. Phosphorus fractions in soil: Five independent soil samples per plot were taken in a depth of 0-15 cm using a soil corer with an inner diameter of 1 cm. The five samples per plot were combined to one composite sample per plot. A four-step sequential P fractionation (Hedley fractions) was applied and concentrations of P fractions in soil were measured photometrically (molybdenum blue-reactive P) with a Continuous Flow Analyzer (Bran&Luebbe, Germany).

Absorption coefficients of particulate matter and chlorophyll a concentrations at time series station OLIPAC

Spectral absorption coefficients of total particulate matter ap (lambda) were determined using the in vitro filter technique. The present analysis deals with a set of 1166 spectra, determined in various oceanic (case 1) waters, with field chl a concentrations ([chl]) spanning 3 orders of magnitude (0.02-25 mg/m**3). As previously shown [Bricaud et al., 1995, doi:10.1029/95JC00463] for the absorption coefficients of living phytoplankton a phi (lamda), the ap (labda) coefficients also increase nonlinearly with [chl]. The relationships (power laws) that link ap (lambda) and a phi (lambda) to [chl] show striking similarities. Despite large fluctuations, the relative contribution of nonalgal particles to total absorption oscillates around an average value of 25-30% throughout the [chl] range. The spectral dependence of absorption by these nonalgal particles follows an exponential increase toward short wavelengths, with a weakly variable slope (0.011 ± 0.0025/nm). The empirical relationships linking ap (lambda) to ([chl]) can be used in bio-optical models. This parameterization based on in vitro measurements leads to a good agreement with a former modeling of the diffuse attenuation coefficient based on in situ measurements. This agreement is worth noting as independent methods and data sets are compared. It is stressed that for a given ([chl]), the ap (lambda) coefficients show large residual variability around the regression lines (for instance, by a factor of 3 at 440 nm). The consequences of such a variability, when predicting or interpreting the diffuse reflectance of the ocean, are examined, according to whether or not these variations in ap are associated with concomitant variations in particle scattering. In most situations the deviations in ap actually are not compensated by those in particle scattering, so that the amplitude of reflectance is affected by these variations.

MARECHIARA-mesozooplankton long-term time-series at the fixed coastal station in the Gulf of Naples: abundance and biomass, data for the years 1984-2006

The MARECHIARA-mesozooplankton dataset contains mesozooplankton data collected in the ongoing time-series at Sation MC (40°48.5' N, 14°15' E) in the Gulf of Naples. This dataset spans over the period 1984-2006 and contains data of mesozooplankton abundance and species composition as well as biomass (as dry weight). Mesozooplankton was regularly sampled in 1984-1990 and 1995-2006, only a few samples were collected in 1991-1992 and no samples in 1993-1994. During the first period of the series sampling frequency was fortnightly, and weekly since 1995.

Time-series of seagrass and land cover maps from 1972 to 2010, in South East Queensland, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

Long term global archives of high-moderate spatial resolution, multi-spectral satellite imagery are now readily accessible, but are not being fully utilised by management agencies due to the lack of appropriate methods to consistently produce accurate and timely management ready information. This work developed an object-based remote sensing approach to map land cover and seagrass distribution in an Australian coastal environment for a 38 year Landsat image time-series archive (1972-2010). Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery were used without in situ field data input (but still using field knowledge) to produce land and seagrass cover maps every year data were available, resulting in over 60 map products over the 38 year archive. Land cover was mapped annually using vegetation, bare ground, urban and agricultural classes. Seagrass distribution was also mapped annually, and in some years monthly, via horizontal projected foliage cover classes, sand and deep water. Land cover products were validated using aerial photography and seagrass maps were validated with field survey data, producing several measures of accuracy. An average overall accuracy of 65% and 80% was reported for seagrass and land cover products respectively, which is consistent with other studies in the area. This study is the first to show moderate spatial resolution, long term annual changes in land cover and seagrass in an Australian environment, created without the use of in situ data; and only one of a few similar studies globally. The land cover products identify several long term trends; such as significant increases in South East Queensland's urban density and extent, vegetation clearing in rural and rural-residential areas, and inter-annual variation in dry vegetation types in western South East Queensland. The seagrass cover products show that there has been a minimal overall change in seagrass extent, but that seagrass cover level distribution is extremely dynamic; evidenced by large scale migrations of higher seagrass cover levels and several sudden and significant changes in cover level. These mapping products will allow management agencies to build a baseline assessment of their resources, understand past changes and help inform implementation and planning of management policy to address potential future changes.