Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model where both the depreciation rate and growth are endogenous and procyclical. We find that the model s predictions become consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates.

Long-Term Monitoring of Ecological Conditions In Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary: Comparison of soft-bottom benthic assemblages and contaminant levels in sediments and biota in Spring 2000 and 2005

As part of an ongoing program of benthic sampling and related assessments of sediment quality at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) off the coast of Georgia, a survey of soft-bottom benthic habitats was conducted in spring 2005 to characterize condition of macroinfaunal assemblages and levels of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota relative to a baseline survey carried out in spring 2000. Distribution and abundance of macrobenthos were related foremost to sediment type (median particle size, % gravel), which in turn varied according to bottom-habitat mesoscale features (e.g., association with live bottom versus flat or rippled sand areas). Overall abundance and diversity of soft-bottom benthic communities were similar between the two years, though dominance patterns and relative abundances of component species were less repeatable. Seasonal summer pulses of a few taxa (e.g., the bivalve Ervilia sp. A) observed in 2000 were not observed in 2005. Concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota, though detectable in both years, were consistently at low, background levels and no exceedances of sediment probable bioeffect levels or FDA action levels for edible fish or shellfish were observed. Near-bottom dissolved oxygen levels and organic-matter content of sediments also have remained within normal ranges. Highly diverse benthic assemblages were found in both years, supporting the premise that GRNMS serves as an important reservoir of marine biodiversity. A total of 353 taxa (219 identified to species) were collected during the spring 2005 survey. Cumulatively, 588 taxa (371 identified to species) have been recorded in the sanctuary from surveys in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2005. Species Accumulation Curves indicate that the theoretical maximum should be in excess of 600 species. Results of this study will be of value in advancing strategic science and management goals for GRNMS, including characterization and long-term monitoring of sanctuary resources and processes, as well as supporting evolving interests in ecosystem-based management of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Xaverian College: Seeing the long term benefit of personalised learning with bespoke VLE

Xaverian College has created a bespoke web-based solution for the academic, pastoral, managerial and administrative requirements of the College that is accessible to all staff and students. Their VLE/ILP intranet system is cutting edge as it offers a remarkable degree of integration because of its holistic approach and is very ‘student-friendly’.

Cannabis use and involuntary admission may mediate long-term adherence in first-episode psychosis patients: a prospective longitudinal study

Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.

Long-Term Evolution Of Delayed Ettringite And Gypsum In Portland Cement Mortars Under Sulfate Erosion

The magnitude evolution of ettringite and gypsum in hydrated Portland cement mortars due to sulfate attack was detected by X-ray powder diffraction. The influences of sulfate concentration and water-to-cement ratio on the evolution of ettringite and gypsum were investigated. Experimental results show that the magnitude of ettringite formation in sodium sulfate solution follows a three-stage process, namely, the 'penetration period', 'enhance period of strength', and 'macro-crack period'. The cracking of concrete materials is mainly attributed to the effect of ettringite. The gypsum formations occurred in two stages, the 'latent period' and the 'accelerated period'. The gypsum formation including ettringite formation was relative to the linear expansion of mortars to some extend. Both water-to-cement ratio and sulfate concentration play important roles in the evolution of ettringite and gypsum. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of long term exploitation by the gill net fishery on the multispecies fish stocks in Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1969-1997

The findings are presented of an assessment made of the gillnet fishery in Kainji Lake, Nigeria from 1969 to the present, on the basis of data sets from commercial and experimental gillnet fishing, with the purpose to detect trends in some key fishery monitoring indicators. During this period, there has been an increase in the number of small meshed nets in the fishery resulting in a shift in the mode to lower mesh sizes; consequently, the average mesh size declined gradually in the fishery. This trend is found to be directly correlated with the decline in the CPUE and mean weight of the fish species. It is argued that the observed trend in CPUE and mean weight is forcing the fishermen to switch effort to gears such as traps which have very small meshes and can indescriminately take all sizes of the fish. It is shown that the catch composition by weight of Citharinus citharus, Lates niloticus and tilapias declined in the gillnet fishery in the late 70's and early 80's. Recent data, from 1994 to 1996, however indicates that C. citharus is recovering, but with declining mean weight. This suggests that the exploitation pattern is shifting to the smaller fish through the use of small meshed nets. In general, however, there has not been drastic changes in species bio-diversity in the Lake as a result of predatory effect and ecosystem overfishing as has happened in other great African Lakes. The species composition since lake formation continued to be dominated by fewer that 20 species. The potential yield for the lake has been estimated to be 32,166 tonnes (excluding clupeids) and the required optimum fishing effort to be 1,814 fishing canoes. In view of the relative stability of the species diversity in the lake and the current fish production level, it is proposed here that this MSY be adopted for all species. This would be achieved with the current effort level in the lake assuming that the efficiency of the fishermen and their gears do not improve. It should be reviewed after 10 or more years of catch and effort data collection. (PDF contains 65 pages)

Kurzinformation zum EU - Projekt: "Mechanisms influencing long term trends in reproductive success and recruitment of Baltic cod : implications for fisheries management"

In July 1994 an internationally coordinated and EU financed multidisciplinary research project about Baltic cod recruitment was started. The primary goals are to identify and describe dominant biotic and abiotic processes affecting the developmental success of early stages and the maturation of cod in the Central Baltic, to incorporate these processes into recruitment models in order to enhance prediction of future stock fluctuations due to environmental pertubations, species interactions and fisheries management directives as a prerequisite for an integrated fish stock assessment in the Central Baltic and to evaluate the feasibility and possible effects of stock enhancement programs on stock and recruitment and providing the biological basis for assessing their economic value.

Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

Long-term natural acidification of upland sites in Cumbria: Evidence from post-glacial lake sediments

Studies by the Freshwater Biological Association over the last 25 years have supplied data relevant to the levels of acidity in local soils and water before the onset of industrial pollution and current interest in acid rain. This article reviews published analysis from cores of lake sediments, in or near the catchment of the River Duddon. Electron spin resonance spectra of humic acids and iodine values confirm evidence from pollen analysis for a history of progressive acidification of the source material of lake sediments since before 5000 radiocarbon years, in upland catchments of the Lake District. Processes involved included: removal of basic ions from soils by rainfall, the effects of which were intensified by removal by man of deciduous forest; acidification of soils and waters by decomposition products of Calluna and further acidification of waters by Sphagnum species which colonized habitats where drainage became impeded by paludification processes.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.