Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Evidence-based polytherapies and long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction in very old subjects compared with elderly and adults: a nested case-control study

Background: Clinical trials have demonstrated that selected secondary prevention medications for patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) reduce mortality. Yet, these medications are generally underprescribed in daily practice, and older people are often absent from drug trials. Objectives: To examine the relationship between adherence to evidence-based (EB) drugs and post-AMI mortality, focusing on the effects of single therapy and polytherapy in very old patients (≥80 years) compared with elderly and adults (<80 years). Methods: Patients hospitalised for AMI between 01/01/2008 and 30/06/2011 and resident in the Local Health Authority of Bologna were followed up until 31/12/2011. Medication adherence was calculated as the proportion of days covered for filled prescriptions of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), β-blockers, antiplatelet drugs, and statins. We adopted a risk set sampling method, and the adjusted relationship between medication adherence (PDC≥75%) and mortality was investigated using conditional multiple logistic regression. Results: The study population comprised 4861 patients. During a median follow-up of 2.8 years, 1116 deaths (23.0%) were observed. Adherence to the 4 EB drugs was 7.1%, while nonadherence to any of the drugs was 19.7%. For both patients aged ≥80 years and those aged <80 years, rate ratios of death linearly decreased as the number of EB drugs taken increased. There was a significant inverse relationship between adherence to each of 4 medications and mortality, although its magnitude was higher for ACEIs/ARBs (adj. rate ratio=0.60, 95%CI=0.52–0.69) and statins (0.60, 0.50–0.72), and lower for β-blockers (0.75, 0.61–0.92) and antiplatelet drugs (0.73, 0.63–0.84). Conclusions: The beneficial effect of EB polytherapy on long-term mortality following AMI is evident also in nontrial older populations. Given that adherence to combination therapies is largely suboptimal, the implementation of strategies and initiatives to increase the use of post-AMI secondary preventive medications in old patients is crucial.

Validation of a new method to assess the long-term Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Activity using hair glucocorticoids as biomarkers. - Studies on pigs and laboratory Sprague-Dawley Rats

The evaluation of chronic activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is critical for determining the impact of chronic stressful situations. The potential use of hair glucocorticoids as a non-invasive, retrospective, biomarker of long term HPA activity is of great interest, and it is gaining acceptance in humans and animals. However, there are still no studies in literature examining hair cortisol concentration in pigs and corticosterone concentration in laboratory rodents. Therefore, we developed and validated, for the first time, a method for measuring hair glucocorticoids concentration in commercial sows and in Sprague-Dawley rats. Our preliminary data demonstrated: 1) a validated and specific washing protocol and extraction assay method with a good sensitivity in both species; 2) the effect of the reproductive phase, housing conditions and seasonality on hair cortisol concentration in sows; 3) similar hair corticosterone concentration in male and female rats; 4) elevated hair corticosterone concentration in response to chronic stress manipulations and chronic ACTH administration, demonstrating that hair provides a good direct index of HPA activity over long periods than other indirect parameters, such adrenal or thymus weight. From these results we believe that this new non-invasive tool needs to be applied to better characterize the overall impact in livestock animals and in laboratory rodents of chronic stressful situations that negatively affect animals welfare. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to improve this methodology and maybe to develop animal models for chronic stress of high interest and translational value in human medicine.

Impact of long-term corticosteroid therapy on the distribution pattern of lower limb atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE: Ectopic calcification and mediacalcinosis can be promoted by corticosteroid use. Aim of the present investigation is to describe macrovascular disease features in patients with long-term corticosteroid therapy and symptomatic lower limb peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). METHODS: A consecutive series of 2783 patients undergoing clinical and angiographic work-up of PAD were screened for long-term (>5 years) corticosteroid use (group A). Comparison was performed to a randomly selected age-, sex- and risk factor-matched PAD control cohort from the same series without corticosteroid use (group B). Patients with diabetes mellitus or severe renal failure were excluded. Arterial calcification was evaluated by qualitative assessment on radiographic images. Severity of atherosclerotic lesions was analysed from angiographic images using a semi-quantitative score (Bollinger score). RESULTS: In general, 12 patients (5 males, mean age 78.5 +/- 9.0 years) with 15 ischaemic limbs qualified to be enrolled in group A and were compared to 23 matching control patients (6 2 males, mean age 79.5 +/- 6 years) with 32 ischaemic limbs. Incompressibility of ankle arteries determined by measurement of the ankle-brachial index was seen in 12 limbs (80%) in group A compared to 3 limbs (9%) in group B (p = 0.0009). No significant difference was found comparing group A and B for segmental calcification, whereas comparison of the atherosclerotic burden using the angiographic severity score showed a significantly higher score at the infragenicular arterial level in group A (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that the long-term corticosteroid therapy is associated with a distally accentuated, calcifying peripheral atherosclerosis inducing arterial incompressibility. This occlusion pattern is comparable to patients with renal failure or diabetes. Further research is required to support our observations.

Corpus callosum index and long-term disability in multiple sclerosis patients

Prediction of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is essential. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement of brain volume may be of predictive value but sophisticated MRI techniques are often inaccessible in clinical practice. The corpus callosum index (CCI) is a normalized measurement that reflects changes of brain volume. We investigated medical records and 533 MRI scans at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up of 169 MS patients (mean age 42 +/- 11 years, 86% relapsing-remitting MS, time since first relapse 11 +/- 9 years). CCI at diagnosis was 0.345 +/- 0.04 and correlated with duration of disease (p = 0.002; r = -0.234) and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score at diagnosis (r = -0.428; p < 0.001). Linear regression analyses identified age, duration of disease, relapse rate and EDSS at diagnosis as independent predictors for disability after mean of 7.1 years (Nagelkerkes' R:0.56). Annual CCI decrease was 0.01 +/- 0.02 (annual tissue loss: 1.3%). In secondary progressive MS patients, CCI decrease was double compared to that in relapsing-remitting MS patients (p = 0.04). There was a trend of greater CCI decrease in untreated patients compared to those who received disease modifying drugs (p = 0.2). CCI is an easy to use MRI marker for estimating brain atrophy in patients with MS. Brain atrophy as measured with CCI was associated with disability progression but it was not an independent predictor of long-term disability.

Endocarditis due to Tropheryma whipplei: rapid detection, limited genetic diversity, and long-term clinical outcome in a local experience

The characteristic features of Whipple's disease include abdominal pain, diarrhoea, wasting, and arthralgias, with the causative agent, Tropheryma whipplei, being detected mainly in intestinal biopsies. PCR technology has led to the identification of T. whipplei in specimens from various other locations, including the central nervous system and the heart. T. whipplei is now recognized as one of the causes of culture-negative endocarditis, and endocarditis can be the only manifestation of the infection with T. whipplei. Although it is considered a rare disease, the true incidence of endocarditis due to T. whipplei is not clearly established. With the increasing use of molecular methods, it is likely that T. whipplei will be more frequently identified. Questions also remain about the genetic variability of T. whipplei strains, optimal diagnostic procedures and therapeutic options. In the present study, we provide clinical data on four new patients with documented endocarditis due to T. whipplei in the context of the available published literature. There was no clinical involvement of the gastrointestinal tract. Genetic analysis of the T. whipplei strains with DNA isolated from the excised heart valves revealed little to no genetic variability. In a selected case, we describe acridine orange staining for early detection of the disease, prompting early adaptation of the antibiotic therapy. We provide long-term follow-up data on the patients. In our hands, an initial 2-week course of intravenous antibiotics followed by cotrimoxazole for at least 1 year was a suitable treatment option for T. whipplei endocarditis.

A comparison of acute and long-term effects of industrial multiwalled carbon nanotubes on human lung and immune cells in vitro

The close resemblance of carbon nanotubes to asbestos fibers regarding their high aspect ratio, biopersistence and reactivity increases public concerns on the widespread use of these materials. The purpose of this study was not only to address the acute adverse effects of industrially produced multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) on human lung and immune cells in vitro but also to further understand if their accumulation and biopersistence leads to long-term consequences or induces adaptive changes in these cells. In contrast to asbestos fibers, pristine MWCNTs did not induce overt cell death in A549 lung epithelial cells and Jurkat T lymphocytes after acute exposure to high doses of this material (up to 30 g/ml). Nevertheless, very high levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and decreased metabolic activity were observed which might affect long-term viability of these cells. However, the continuous presence of low amounts of MWCNTs (0.5 g/ml) for 6 months did not have major adverse long-term effects although large amounts of nanotubes accumulated at least in A549 cells. Moreover, MWCNTs did not appear to induce adaptive mechanisms against particle stress in long-term treated A549 cells. Our study demonstrates that despite the high potential for ROS formation, pristine MWCNTs can accumulate and persist within cells without having major long-term consequences or inducing adaptive mechanisms.

Long-term comparison of everolimus-eluting and sirolimus-eluting stents for coronary revascularization

Objectives This study sought to compare the unrestricted use of everolimus-eluting stents (EES) with sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Background It is unclear whether there are differences in safety and efficacy between EES and SES during long-term follow-up. Methods Using propensity score matching, clinical outcome was compared among 1,342 propensity score–matched pairs of patients treated with EES and SES. The primary outcome was a composite of death, MI, and target vessel revascularization. Results The median follow-up was 1.5 years with a maximum of 3 years. The primary outcome occurred in 14.9% of EES- and 18.0% of SES-treated patients up to 3 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 1.00, p = 0.056). All-cause mortality (6.0% vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.25, p = 0.59) was similar, risks of myocardial infarction (MI) (3.3% vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.92, p = 0.017), and target vessel revascularization (7.0% vs. 9.6%, HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.99, p = 0.039) were lower with EES than SES. Definite stent thrombosis (ST) (HR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.75, p = 0.01) was less frequent among patients treated with EES. The reduced rate of MI with EES was explained in part by the lower risk of definite ST and the corresponding decrease in events associated with ST (HR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.75, p = 0.013). Conclusions The unrestricted use of EES appears to be associated with improved clinical long-term outcome compared with SES. Differences in favor of EES are driven in part by a lower risk of MI associated with ST.

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

Long-term consequences of an intensive care unit stay in older critically ill patients: design of a longitudinal study

Background Modern methods in intensive care medicine often enable the survival of older critically ill patients. The short-term outcomes for patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs), such as survival to hospital discharge, are well documented. However, relatively little is known about subsequent long-term outcomes. Pain, anxiety and agitation are important stress factors for many critically ill patients. There are very few studies concerned with pain, anxiety and agitation and the consequences in older critically ill patients. The overall aim of this study is to identify how an ICU stay influences an older person's experiences later in life. More specific, this study has the following objectives: (1) to explore the relationship between pain, anxiety and agitation during ICU stays and experiences of the same symptoms in later life; and (2) to explore the associations between pain, anxiety and agitation experienced during ICU stays and their effect on subsequent health-related quality of life, use of the health care system (readmissions, doctor visits, rehabilitation, medication use), living situation, and survival after discharge and at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Methods/Design A prospective, longitudinal study will be used for this study. A total of 150 older critically ill patients in the ICU will participate (ICU group). Pain, anxiety, agitation, morbidity, mortality, use of the health care system, and health-related quality of life will be measured at 3 intervals after a baseline assessment. Baseline measurements will be taken 48 hours after ICU admission and one week thereafter. Follow-up measurements will take place 6 months and 12 months after discharge from the ICU. To be able to interpret trends in scores on outcome variables in the ICU group, a comparison group of 150 participants, matched by age and gender, recruited from the Swiss population, will be interviewed at the same intervals as the ICU group. Discussion Little research has focused on long term consequences after ICU admission in older critically ill patients. The present study is specifically focussing on long term consequences of stress factors experienced during ICU admission.

Leukocyte- and Platelet-Rich Fibrin (L-PRF) for Long-Term Delivery of Growth Factor in Rotator Cuff Repair: Review, Preliminary Results and Future Directions

Surgical repair of the rotator cuff repair is one of the most common procedures in orthopedic surgery. Despite it being the focus of much research, the physiological tendon-bone insertion is not recreated following repair and there is an anatomic non-healing rate of up to 94%. During the healing phase, several growth factors are upregulated that induce cellular proliferation and matrix deposition. Subsequently, this provisional matrix is replaced by the definitive matrix. Leukocyte- and platelet-rich fibrin (L-PRF) contain growth factors and has a stable dense fibrin matrix. Therefore, use of LPRF in rotator cuff repair is theoretically attractive. The aim of the present study was to determine 1) the optimal protocol to achieve the highest leukocyte content; 2) whether L-PRF releases growth factors in a sustained manner over 28 days; 3) whether standard/gelatinous or dry/compressed matrix preparation methods result in higher growth factor concentrations. 1) The standard L-PRF centrifugation protocol with 400 x g showed the highest concentration of platelets and leukocytes. 2) The L-PRF clots cultured in medium showed a continuous slow release with an increase in the absolute release of growth factors TGF-β1, VEGF and MPO in the first 7 days, and for IGF1, PDGF-AB and platelet activity (PF4=CXCL4) in the first 8 hours, followed by a decrease to close to zero at 28 days. Significantly higher levels of growth factor were expressed relative to the control values of normal blood at each culture time point. 3) Except for MPO and the TGFβ-1, there was always a tendency towards higher release of growth factors (i.e., CXCL4, IGF-1, PDGF-AB, and VEGF) in the standard/gelatinous- compared to the dry/compressed group. L-PRF in its optimal standard/gelatinous-type matrix can store and deliver locally specific healing growth factors for up to 28 days and may be a useful adjunct in rotator cuff repair.

Early molecular and cytogenetic response is predictive for long-term progression-free and overall survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)

In the face of competing first-line treatment options for CML, early prediction of prognosis on imatinib is desirable to assure favorable survival or otherwise consider the use of a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients (pts) were investigated to correlate molecular and cytogenetic response at 3 and 6 months with progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS). The persistence of BCR-ABL transcript levels >10% according to the international scale (BCR-ABL(IS)) at 3 months separated a high-risk group (28% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) from a group with >1-10% BCR-ABL(IS) (41% of pts; 5-year OS: 94%; P=0.012) and from a group with 1% BCR-ABL(IS) (31% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.004). Cytogenetics identified high-risk pts by >35% Philadelphia chromosome-positive metaphases (Ph+, 27% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) compared with 35% Ph+ (73% of pts; 5-year OS: 95%; P=0.036). At 6 months, >1% BCR-ABL(IS) (37% of pts; 5-year OS: 89%) was associated with inferior survival compared with 1% (63% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P<0.001) and correspondingly >0% Ph+ (34% of pts; 5-year OS: 91%) compared with 0% Ph+ (66% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.015). Treatment optimization is recommended for pts missing these landmarks.

Effects of doxorubicin cancer therapy on autophagy and the ubiquitin-proteasome system in long-term cultured adult rat cardiomyocytes

The clinical use of anthracyclines in cancer therapy is limited by dose-dependent cardiotoxicity that involves cardiomyocyte injury and death. We have tested the hypothesis that anthracyclines affect protein degradation pathways in adult cardiomyocytes. To this aim, we assessed the effects of doxorubicin (Doxo) on apoptosis, autophagy and the proteasome/ubiquitin system in long-term cultured adult rat cardiomyocytes. Accumulation of poly-ubiquitinated proteins, increase of cathepsin-D-positive lysosomes and myofibrillar degradation were observed in Doxo-treated cardiomyocytes. Chymotrypsin-like activity of the proteasome was initially increased and then inhibited by Doxo over a time-course of 48 h. Proteasome 20S proteins were down-regulated by higher doses of Doxo. The expression of MURF-1, an ubiquitin-ligase specifically targeting myofibrillar proteins, was suppressed by Doxo at all concentrations measured. Microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3B (LC3)-positive punctae and both LC3-I and -II proteins were induced by Doxo in a dose-dependent manner, as confirmed by using lentiviral expression of green fluorescence protein bound to LC3 and live imaging. The lysosomotropic drug chloroquine led to autophagosome accumulation, which increased with concomitant Doxo treatment indicating enhanced autophagic flux. We conclude that Doxo causes a downregulation of the protein degradation machinery of cardiomyocytes with a resulting accumulation of poly-ubiquitinated proteins and autophagosomes. Although autophagy is initially stimulated as a compensatory response to cytotoxic stress, it is followed by apoptosis and necrosis at higher doses and longer exposure times. This mechanism might contribute to the late cardiotoxicity of anthracyclines by accelerated aging of the postmitotic adult cardiomyocytes and to the susceptibility of the aging heart to anthracycline cancer therapy.

The long-term mechanical integrity of non-reinforced PEEK-OPTIMA polymer for demanding spinal applications: experimental and finite-element analysis

Polyetheretherketone (PEEK) is a novel polymer with potential advantages for its use in demanding orthopaedic applications (e.g. intervertebral cages). However, the influence of a physiological environment on the mechanical stability of PEEK has not been reported. Furthermore, the suitability of the polymer for use in highly stressed spinal implants such as intervertebral cages has not been investigated. Therefore, a combined experimental and analytical study was performed to address these open questions. A quasi-static mechanical compression test was performed to compare the initial mechanical properties of PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a dry, room-temperature and in an aqueous, 37 degrees C environment (n=10 per group). The creep behaviour of cylindrical PEEK polymer specimens (n=6) was measured in a simulated physiological environment at an applied stress level of 10 MPa for a loading duration of 2000 hours (12 weeks). To compare the biomechanical performance of different intervertebral cage types made from PEEK and titanium under complex loading conditions, a three-dimensional finite element model of a functional spinal unit was created. The elastic modulus of PEEK polymer specimens in a physiological environment was 1.8% lower than that of specimens tested at dry, room temperature conditions (P<0.001). The results from the creep test showed an average creep strain of less than 0.1% after 2000 hours of loading. The finite element analysis demonstrated high strain and stress concentrations at the bone/implant interface, emphasizing the importance of cage geometry for load distribution. The stress and strain maxima in the implants were well below the material strength limits of PEEK. In summary, the experimental results verified the mechanical stability of the PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a simulated physiological environment, and over extended loading periods. Finite element analysis supported the use of PEEK-OPTIMA for load-bearing intervertebral implants.

Long-term outcome after structural failure of rotator cuff repairs

BACKGROUND: In a previous study, twenty consecutive patients with a rerupture of the rotator cuff, as documented with magnetic resonance imaging, were found to have significantly less pain and better function and strength, compared with the preoperative state, at 3.2 years postoperatively. It was the purpose of this study to determine the clinical and structural outcomes of these reruptures in the same twenty patients after a longer period of follow-up. METHODS: At a mean of 7.6 years postoperatively, the twenty patients were reexamined clinically and with standard radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging with use of the same clinical, radiographic, and magnetic resonance imaging criteria as were utilized in the review at 3.2 years. The mean age at the time of final follow-up was sixty-six years. RESULTS: Nineteen of the twenty patients continued to be either very satisfied or satisfied with the outcome. The relative Constant score averaged 88% and was not significantly different from the score at 3.2 years, which averaged 83%. The mean scores for pain, function, and strength also had not changed significantly. Overall, the twenty reruptures had not increased in size, and eight of them had healed structurally at the time of the 7.6-year follow-up. Seven of these eight reruptures had been of the supraspinatus tendon only, and seven had been smaller than 400 mm(2) at 3.2 years. Twelve reruptures persisted, and five were larger than the preoperative tear. Fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus muscle progressed significantly (p = 0.015) and the acromiohumeral distance decreased significantly (p = 0.006) between the two follow-up periods. Neither fatty infiltration of the supraspinatus and subscapularis muscles nor glenohumeral osteoarthritis progressed significantly. CONCLUSIONS: At an average of 7.6 years, the clinical outcomes after structural failure of rotator cuff repairs remained significantly improved over the preoperative state in terms of pain, function, strength, and patient satisfaction. Overall, the reruptures that had been present at 3.2 years did not increase in size. We also found that reruptures of the supraspinatus that had been smaller than 400 mm(2) had the potential to heal.