Accounting information and the prediction of farm viability

Until recently farm management made little use of accounting and agriculture has been largely excluded from the scope of accounting standards. This article examines the current use of accounting in agriculture and points theneed to establish accounting standards for agriculture. Empirical evidence shows that accounting can make a significant contribution to agricultural management and farm viability and could also be important for other agents involved in agricultural decision making. Existing literature on failureprediction models and farm viability prediction studies provide the starting point for our research, in which two dichotomous logit models were applied to subsamples of viable and unviable farms in Catalonia, Spain. The firstmodel considered only non-financial variables, while the other also considered financial ones. When accounting variables were added to the model, a significant reduction in deviance was observed.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

To use it or not to use it: differences between adolescent males carrying a weapon and those using it in a fight

Purpose Data indicate that 19% of male adolescents living in Switzerland carried a weapon in the last 12 months. The main objective of this research is to compare the characteristics of male adolescents carrying a weapon and having used it in a fight from those who have carried but not used it in the previous 12 months. Methods Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) data base, a survey including 7,548[3,710 males] in-school adolescents aged 16-20 years in Switzerland. Only males declaring having carried a weapon (N = 711; 19.2% of the sample) were included in the analysis. Three groups were created: those not having used a weapon (WO; N = 538 subjects), those having used a weapon in a fight once or twice (W12; N = 127), and those having used a weapon in a fight 3 or more times (W3+; N = 46). Multinomial logistic regression was performed to compare the 3 groups on individual, family, school, and social factors using WO as the reference category. Analyses were performed with STATA9. Results are presented as relative risk ratios (RRR). Results W12 males were significantly more likely to perceive their puberty as advanced compared to their peers (RRR: 2.1), to be foreign born (RRR: 2.6), to live in an urban environment (RRR: 1.9), to be in vocational school (RRR: 4.7), to have a poor school connectedness (RRR: 1.8), to skip classes (RRR: 2.1) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 5.3). W3+ males were significantly more likely to be foreign born (RRR: 3.6) and to live in an urban environment (RRR: 2.4), to be current users of illegal drugs other than cannabis (RRR: 3.8) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 4.1). No differences were found between groups for tobacco, alcohol, or cannabis use. Conclusions Within a national sample of Swiss youth aged 16-20 years, almost one fifth of male adolescents have carried a weapon in the previous 12 months. Nevertheless, most of them (75.7%) have never used a weapon in a fight. Whether they carry a weapon for defense purposes or as a manly behavior remains to be elucidated. However, urban foreign-born adolescents who quarrel while intoxicated are the most at risk of using a weapon in a fight, and therefore culturally-sensitive prevention approaches need to be developed to decrease violence in this specific population of youth. Having school problems or using illegal drugs other than cannabis seem to differentiate between those who use it in a fight occasionally (once or twice) and those who do it more often.

Importancia de la información contable para el análisis y predicción de la viabilidad de las explotaciones agrícolas

Spanish and Western agriculture show a continuous decrease in the numberof farms. One of the main factors for this trend is the economicnon-viability of many of the existing farms. In addition, interrelationshipof agriculture with other industries is growing. Thus, policymakers, banks,creditors and other stakeholders are interested in predicting farm viability.The aim of this paper is to provide empirical evidence that the use ofaccounting-based information could significantly improve understandingand prediction of various degrees of farm viability. Two multinomial logitmodels were applied to a sample of farms of Catalonia, Spain. One modelincluded non-accounting-based variables, while the other also consideredaccounting-based variables. It was found that accounting added significantinformation to predict various degrees of farm viability. This findingreveals, both the need of encouraging the little existing use of accountingby farms and to develop appropriate accounting standards for agriculture.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

The determinants of the prevalence of single mothers: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effect of public assistance, labor market and marriage marketconditions on the prevalence of single mother families across countries and over time. Amultinomial logit derived from a random utility approach is estimated using individualleveldata for 14 countries. I find evidence that increases in the level of public support are significantly and positively associated with a higher incidence of both never marriedand divorced mothers. The results also suggest that single mothers are more prevalentwhen female wages are lower. Higher male earnings and employment opportunities in awoman s marriage market appear to lead to fewer never married mothers, but more divorced mothers. Higher child support or alimony payments are associated with a higher prevalence of divorced mothers.

Extra burden of psychosomatic complaints among adolescents suffering from chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVE:: To determine whether there are differences in health perception and health care use among adolescents with psychosomatic symptoms (PS), with chronic conditions (CCs), and with both conditions compared with healthy controls. METHODS:: By using the SMASH02 database, 4 groups were created: youths with PS but no CCs (N = 1010); youths with CCs but no PS (N = 497); youths with both psychosomatic symptoms and chronic conditions (PSCC, N = 213); and youths with neither PS nor CC (control, N = 5709). We used χ tests and analysis of variance to compare each variable between the 4 groups. In a second step, all health and health care use variables were included in a multinomial regression analysis controlling for significant (p < .05) background variables and using the control group as the reference. RESULTS:: Overall, PS and PSCC youths were significantly more likely to rate their health as poor, to be depressed, and to have consulted several times their primary health care provider or a mental health professional than their healthy peers. With the exception of being depressed, PSCC adolescents reported worse health perception and higher health care use than CC and PS. CONCLUSIONS:: Although PS youths do not define PS as a CC, it should be considered as one. Moreover, having PS represents an additional burden to chronically ill adolescents. Health professionals dealing with adolescents must be aware of the deleterious health effects that PS can have on adolescents and have this diagnosis in mind to better target the treatment and improve their management.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Acute alcohol consumption and injury: risk associations and attributable fractions for different injury mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE: Most studies on alcohol as a risk factor for injuries have been mechanism specific, and few have considered several mechanisms simultaneously or reported alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs)-which was the aim of the current study. METHOD: Data from 3,592 injured and 3,489 noninjured patients collected between January 2003 and June 2004 in the surgical ward of the emergency department of the Lausanne University Hospital (Switzerland) were analyzed. Four injury mechanisms derived from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, were considered: transportation-related injuries, falls, exposure to forces and other events, and interpersonal violence. Multinomial logistic regression models were calculated to estimate the risk relationships of different levels of alcohol consumption, using noninjured patients as quasi-controls. The AAFs were then calculated. RESULTS: Risk relationships between injury and acute consumption were found across all mechanisms, commonly resulting in dose-response relationships. Marked differences between mechanisms were observed for relative risks and AAFs, which varied between 15.2% and 33.1% and between 10.1% and 35.9%, depending on the time window of consumption (either 6 hours or 24 hours before injury, respectively). Low and medium levels of alcohol consumption generally were associated with the most AAFs. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the implications of even low levels of alcohol consumption on the risk of sustaining injuries through any of the mechanisms considered. Substantial AAFs are reported for each mechanism, particularly for injuries resulting from interpersonal violence. Observation of a so-called preventive paradox phenomenon is discussed, and prevention or intervention measures are described.

Malaria haplotype frequency estimation.

We present a Bayesian approach for estimating the relative frequencies of multi-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) haplotypes in populations of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum by using microarray SNP data from human blood samples. Each sample comes from a malaria patient and contains one or several parasite clones that may genetically differ. Samples containing multiple parasite clones with different genetic markers pose a special challenge. The situation is comparable with a polyploid organism. The data from each blood sample indicates whether the parasites in the blood carry a mutant or a wildtype allele at various selected genomic positions. If both mutant and wildtype alleles are detected at a given position in a multiply infected sample, the data indicates the presence of both alleles, but the ratio is unknown. Thus, the data only partially reveals which specific combinations of genetic markers (i.e. haplotypes across the examined SNPs) occur in distinct parasite clones. In addition, SNP data may contain errors at non-negligible rates. We use a multinomial mixture model with partially missing observations to represent this data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the haplotype frequencies in a population. Our approach addresses both challenges, multiple infections and data errors.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Drinking Patterns and Their Predictive Factors in CONTROL: a 12-Month Prospective Study in a Sample of Alcohol-Dependent Patients Initiating Treatment.

Aims: To describe the drinking patterns and their baseline predictive factors during a 12-month period after an initial evaluation for alcohol treatment. Methods CONTROL is a single-center, prospective, observational study evaluating consecutive alcohol-dependent patients. Using a curve clustering methodology based on a polynomial regression mixture model, we identified three clusters of patients with dominant alcohol use patterns described as mostly abstainers, mostly moderate drinkers and mostly heavy drinkers. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify baseline factors (socio-demographic, alcohol dependence consequences and related factors) predictive of belonging to each drinking cluster. ResultsThe sample included 143 alcohol-dependent adults (63.6% males), mean age 44.6 ± 11.8 years. The clustering method identified 47 (32.9%) mostly abstainers, 56 (39.2%) mostly moderate drinkers and 40 (28.0%) mostly heavy drinkers. Multivariate analyses indicated that mild or severe depression at baseline predicted belonging to the mostly moderate drinkers cluster during follow-up (relative risk ratio (RRR) 2.42, CI [1.02-5.73, P = 0.045] P = 0.045), while living alone (RRR 2.78, CI [1.03-7.50], P = 0.044) and reporting more alcohol-related consequences (RRR 1.03, CI [1.01-1.05], P = 0.004) predicted belonging to the mostly heavy drinkers cluster during follow-up. Conclusion In this sample, the drinking patterns of alcohol-dependent patients were predicted by baseline factors, i.e. depression, living alone or alcohol-related consequences and findings that may inform clinicians about the likely drinking patterns of their alcohol-dependent patient over the year following the initial evaluation for alcohol treatment.

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Disordered eating behaviors: what about boys?

PURPOSE: To determine the characteristics specific to boys with disordered eating behaviors (DEB) and the general context in which these DEB occur. METHOD: Data were drawn from the SMASH02 database, a survey carried out among post-mandatory school students in Switzerland aged 16-20 years in 2002. Only males (N=3890) were included, and were classified into into one of four groups based on their level of concern about weight/food and on their eating behaviors, as follows: group 1: one concern without behavior (N=862); group 2: more than one concern without behavior (N=361); group 3: at least one behavior (N=798); and a control group (N=1869), according to previously validated items. Groups were compared for personal, family, school, experience of violence, and health-compromising behaviors variables on the bivariate level. All significant variables were included in a multinomial logistic regression using Stata 9 software. RESULTS: About one-half of the boys reported either a concern or unhealthy eating behavior. Compared with the control group, boys from the three groups were more likely to be students and to report a history of sexual abuse, delinquency, depression, and feeling fat. In addition, boys from group 3 were more likely to report a history of dieting, early puberty, peer teasing, having experienced violence, frequent inebriation, and being overweight. CONCLUSION: DEB concern adolescent males more frequently than thought and seem to be integrated in a general dysfunctional context, in which violence is predominant. Adolescent males also need to be screened for DEB. Moreover, prevention programs should target the increasing social and media pressure regarding boys ideal body shape and raise public consciousness about this phenomenon.