A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Ecological aspects of the free-living ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on animal trails within Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil

In a recent ecological study of the ticks on animal trails within an area of Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil, Amblyomma aureolatum, A. brasiliense, A. incisum, A. ovale and Haemaphysalis juxtakochi were found questing on the vegetation. Most of the ticks recorded by a small, man-made dam on the forest border were A. dubitatum but a few A. brasiliense and A. cajennense, one A. incisum and one H. juxtakochi were also found. The seasonal activity of the ticks indicated that A. incisum and A. brasiliense had one generation/year. On the animal trails, most tick species and stages quested on the vegetation at a height of 30-40 cm above ground level. The questing larvae and adults of A. incisum tended to be found higher, however, with the greatest numbers recorded 40-50 cm (larvae) or 60-70 cm (adults) above ground level. Most of the adult ticks (81.1% -100%), nymphs (78.6%-100%) and larval clusters (100%) found on a forest trail remained questing at the same location over a 24-h period. Carbon-dioxide traps in the rainforest attracted, 50% of the ticks observed questing on the nearby vegetation and, curiously, the CO(2) traps set deep in the forest attracted far fewer ticks than similar traps set by the dam. The ecological relationships between the ticks, their hosts and the rainforest environment are discussed.

The effect of temperature and fasting period on the viability of free-living females of Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Acari : Ixodidae) under laboratory conditions

Little is known about the effect of temperature on viability of free-living phases of the life cycle of Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Latreille, 1806) despite of its importance as vector of several pathogens. Knowledge of the effect of abiotic factors on the capacity of a given tick species to infest new hosts is important for routine experimental activities under laboratory conditions, and may be relevant to understand the transmission of pathogens. The study evaluates the viability of R. sanguineus females held at 18 +/- 1, 27 +/- 1 and 32 +/- 1 degrees C and 80 +/- 5% RH (saturation deficits of 3.0, 5.3 and 7.2 mmHg, respectively) for three fasting periods (3 and 20 days and the day when female mortality reached approximately 50% after ecdysis), under laboratory conditions. In general, the best result on viability was obtained when rabbits were infested with unfed female ticks after three or 20 fasting days at both 27 +/- 1 and 32 +/- 1 degrees C and 80 +/- 5% RH.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Genotyping of Cryptosporidium spp. from free-living wild birds from Brazil

In wild and domestic birds, cryptosporidiosis is often associated with infections by Cryptosporidium galli, Cryptosporidium baileyi and Cryptosporidium meleagridis. In addition to these species, a number of avian Cryptosporidium species yet to be fully characterized are commonly found among exotic and wild avian isolates. The present study aimed to detect and identify samples of Cryptosporidium spp. from free-living wild birds, in order to contribute to the knowledge of the variability of this parasite in the free-living population of Brazil. Stool samples were collected from 242 birds, with the following proportions of individuals: 50 Emberizidae (20.7%), 112 Psittacidae (46.3%), 44 Cardinalidae (18.2%), 12 Turdidae (5.0%), eight Ramphastidae (3.3%), seven Icteridae (2.9%), three Estrilididae (1.2%), two Contigidae (0.8%), two Thraupidae (0.8%) and two Fringilidae (0.8%). Among the 242 fecal samples from wild birds, 16(6.6%) were positive for the presence of oocysts of Cryptosporidium. Molecular characterization of the 16 samples of Cryptosporidium, were performed with phylogenetic reconstructions employing 292 positions of 18S rDNA. None of the samples of birds was characterized as C meleagridis. C gall was identified in one rufous-bellied thrush (Turdus rufiventris), five green-winged saltators (Saltator similis), one slate-coloured seedeater (Sporophila schistacea), one goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) and three saffron finches (Sicalis flaveola). One goldfinch isolate, one buff-fronted seedeater (Sporophila frontalis), one red-cowled cardinal (Paroaria dominicana) and one other saffron finch (S. flaveola) were identified as C. baileyi. Avian genotype II was found in an isolate from a white-eyed parakeet (Aratinga leucophthalma). Clinical symptoms of cryptosporidiosis in birds have already been described and the number of wild birds which were shedding parasites was high. Therefore, further epidemiological research and disease surveillance of birds in the wild is warranted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use and non-use values of wild Asian elephants: A total economic valuation approach

The contingent valuation method is often used for valuing environmental goods possessing use as well as non-use values. This paper investigates the relative importance of these values in relation to the existence of the wild Asian elephant. It does so by analysing results from a contingent valuation survey of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo. We find that the major proportion of the respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of wild elephants is attributable to the non-use values of the elephant. However, differences in the relative importance of these values exist between those who visit national parks and those who do not. Differences in respondents’ WTP for conservation of elephants are found to be largely influenced by attitudinal and behavioural factors rather than socio-economic ones. We conclude that policymakers must recognise and take account of the importance of non-use values of the Asian elephant, if this endangered species is to survive in the long run. Nevertheless, the non-consumptive use value of elephants in Sri Lanka is also found to be substantial.

The net benefit of saving the Asian Elephant: A policy and contingent valuation Study

Reports results from a contingent valuation survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Face–to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model is used to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ willingness to pay for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants. We find that the beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the areas affected by human–elephant conflict) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. Therefore, there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine the optimal level of this elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense. Nevertheless, the current population of elephant in Sri Lanka is Kaldor-Hicks preferable to having none.

Does workforce participation empower women? Micro-level evidence from urban Bangladesh

Empirical studies on the impact of women’s paid jobs on their empowerment and welfare in the Bangladesh context are rare. The few studies on the issue to date have all been confined to the garment workers only although studies indicate that women’s workforce participation in Bangladesh has increased across-the-board. Besides, none of these studies has made an attempt to control for the non-working women and/or applied any statistical technique to control for the effects of other pertinent determinants of women’s empowerment and welfare such as education, age, religion and place of living. This study overcomes these drawbacks and presents alternative assessments of the link between women’s workforce participation and empowerment on the basis of survey data from the two largest cities in Bangladesh. While the generic assessment indicates that women’s paid jobs have positive implications for women’s participation in decisions on fertility, children’s education and healthcare as well as their possession and control of resources, the econometric assessment negates most of these observations. Women’s education, on the other hand, appears to be more important than their participation in the labour force. The study underlines the fact that by omitting other relevant explanatory variables from the analysis, the previous studies might have overestimated the impact of women’s paid work on their empowerment. Among other things, the paper also highlights the importance of women’s job category, religion and regional differences for women’s empowerment.

A comparison of the dental health of Brazilian and Canadian independently living elderly

Objective: To compare the dental status of Brazilian and Canadian elderly populations with respect to socioeconomic and quality of life factors. Materials and methods: A total of 496 adults aged 60-75 years, having four or more teeth, and physically and cognitively suitable for a clinical oral examination were included. Subjects answered questions concerning their lifestyle and completed the Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) questionnaire. Results: In all populations, the majority were females, aged between 60 and 65 years and married. Although the Canadian New Immigrant population had lower mean income, they had more remaining teeth (23.04 +/- 6.1), more functional teeth (sound and restored teeth) (14.92 +/- 5.7), more sound teeth (15.40 +/- 7.6), but more carious teeth (2.97 +/- 3.0). The Brazilian population had higher numbers of restored teeth (12.26 +/- 6.8) and fewer remaining teeth (17.80 +/- 7.6). In all populations, females, married and younger (60-65 years old) adults were more likely to retain 20 or more teeth. The mean GOHAI scores were similar for Canadians (40.55 +/- 5.7) and Canadian New Immigrants (39.28 +/- 6.5), but were higher than that among Brazilians (31.97 +/- 8.9). Conclusions: The numbers of remaining teeth were related to greater education and higher income status for Brazilian and Canadian populations. However, Canadian New Immigrants with lower income and education retained more teeth than the other populations.