Broadening public input into science policy decision making: can the democratic model for science communication influence scientific, innovation and technological trajectories?

This PhD thesis investigates the potential use of science communication models to engage a broader swathe of actors in decision making in relation to scientific and technological innovation in order to address possible democratic deficits in science and technology policy-making. A four-pronged research approach has been employed to examine different representations of the public(s) and different modes of engagement. The first case study investigates whether patient-groups could represent an alternative needs-driven approach to biomedical and health sciences R & D. This is followed by enquiry into the potential for Science Shops to represent a bottom-up approach to promote research and development of local relevance. The barriers and opportunities for the involvement of scientific researchers in science communication are next investigated via a national survey which is comparable to a similar survey conducted in the UK. The final case study investigates to what extent opposition or support regarding nanotechnology (as an emerging technology) is reflected amongst the YouTube user community and the findings are considered in the context of how support or opposition to new or emerging technologies can be addressed using conflict resolution based approaches to manage potential conflict trajectories. The research indicates that the majority of communication exercises of relevance to science policy and planning take the form of a one-way flow of information with little or no facility for public feedback. This thesis proposes that a more bottom-up approach to research and technology would help broaden acceptability and accountability for decisions made relating to new or existing technological trajectories. This approach could be better integrated with and complementary to government, institutional, e.g. university, and research funding agencies activities and help ensure that public needs and issues are better addressed directly by the research community. Such approaches could also facilitate empowerment of societal stakeholders regarding scientific literacy and agenda-setting. One-way information relays could be adapted to facilitate feedback from representative groups e.g. Non-governmental organisations or Civil Society Organisations (such as patient groups) in order to enhance the functioning and socio-economic relevance of knowledge-based societies to the betterment of human livelihoods.

The assessment of a global marine ecosystem model on the basis of emergent properties and ecosystem function: a case study with ERSEM

Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation indicates that the model may have an appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large-scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

Towards An Acoustic Model-Based Poroelastic Imaging Method: I. Theoretical Foundation

The ultrasonic measurement and imaging of tissue elasticity is currently under wide investigation and development as a clinical tool for the assessment of a broad range of diseases, but little account in this field has yet been taken of the fact that soft tissue is porous and contains mobile fluid. The ability to squeeze fluid out of tissue may have implications for conventional elasticity imaging, and may present opportunities for new investigative tools. When a homogeneous, isotropic, fluid-saturated poroelastic material with a linearly elastic solid phase and incompressible solid and fluid constituents is subjected to stress, the behaviour of the induced internal strain field is influenced by three material constants: the Young's modulus (E(s)) and Poisson's ratio (nu(s)) of the solid matrix and the permeability (k) of the solid matrix to the pore fluid. New analytical expressions were derived and used to model the time-dependent behaviour of the strain field inside simulated homogeneous cylindrical samples of such a poroelastic material undergoing sustained unconfined compression. A model-based reconstruction technique was developed to produce images of parameters related to the poroelastic material constants (E(s), nu(s), k) from a comparison of the measured and predicted time-dependent spatially varying radial strain. Tests of the method using simulated noisy strain data showed that it is capable of producing three unique parametric images: an image of the Poisson's ratio of the solid matrix, an image of the axial strain (which was not time-dependent subsequent to the application of the compression) and an image representing the product of the aggregate modulus E(s)(1-nu(s))/(1+nu(s))(1-2nu(s)) of the solid matrix and the permeability of the solid matrix to the pore fluid. The analytical expressions were further used to numerically validate a finite element model and to clarify previous work on poroelastography.

Neurobiological model of visuo-spatial cognition in young Williams Syndrome children: measures of dorsal-stream and frontal function

We examine hypotheses for the neural basis of the profile of visual cognition in young children with Williams syndrome (WS). These are: (a) that it is a consequence of anomalies in sensory visual processing; (b) that it is a deficit of the dorsal relative to the ventral cortical stream; (c) that it reflects deficit of frontal function, in particular of fronto-parietal interaction; (d) that it is related to impaired function in the right hemisphere relative to the left. The tests reported here are particularly relevant to (b) and (c). They form part of a more extensive programme of investigating visual, visuospatial, and cognitive function in large group of children with WS children, aged 8 months to 15 years. To compare performance across tests, avoiding floor and ceiling effects, we have measured performance in children with WS in terms of the ‘age equivalence’ for typically developing children. In this paper the relation between dorsal and ventral function was tested by motion and form coherence thresholds respectively. We confirm the presence of a subgroup of children with WS who perform particularly poorly on the motion (dorsal) task. However, such performance is also characteristic of normally developingchildren up to 5 years: thus the WS performance may reflect an overall persisting immaturity of visuospatial processing which is particularly evident in the dorsal stream. Looking at the performance on the global coherence tasks of the entire WS group, we find that there is also a subgroup who have both high form and motion coherence thresholds, relative to the performance of children of the same chronological age and verbal age on the BPVS, suggesting a more general global processing deficit. Frontal function was tested by a counterpointing task, ability to retrieve a ball from a ‘detour box’, and the Stroop-like ‘day-night’ task, all of which require inhibition of a familiar response. When considered in relation to overall development as indexed by vocabulary, the day-night task shows little specific impairment, the detour box shows a significant delay relative to controls, and the counterpointing task shows a marked and persistent deficit in many children. We conclude that frontal control processes show most impairment in WS when they are associated with spatially directed responses, reflecting a deficit of fronto-parietal processing. However, children with WS may successfully reduce the effect of this impairment by verbally mediated strategies. On all these tasks we find a range of difficulties across individual children and a small subset of WS who show very good performance, equivalent to chronological age norms of typically developing children. Neurobiological models of visuo-spatial cognition in children with WS p.4 Overall, we conclude that children with WS have specific processing difficulties with tasks involving frontoparietal circuits within the spatial domain. However, some children with WS can achieve similar performance to typically developing children on some tasks involving the dorsal stream, although the strategies and processing may be different in the two groups.

Accounting Undergraduates’ Perceptions of Cooperative Learning as a Model for Enhancing their Interpersonal and Communication Skills to Interface Successfully with Professional Accountancy Education and Training

To interface effectively with professional accountancy training, accounting educationalists should ensure that they turn out graduates who possess the interpersonal and communication skills required of today's accountant. Attainment of these skills is promoted by group work. However, little empirical evidence exists to help academics make an informed choice about which form of group learning enhances interpersonal and communication skills. This paper addresses this deficiency by comparing perceptions of skills enhancement between accounting students who experienced traditional or simple group learning and those who undertook cooperative learning. The findings reveal that the cooperative learning cohort perceived their learning experience to be significantly more effective at enhancing interpersonal and communication skills than that of the simple group learning cohort. This study provides evidence that cooperative learning is a more effective model for delivering interpersonal and communication skills than simple group learning, thereby creating a more successful interface between academic accounting and professional accountancy training.

A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model of Behavioural and Psychological Symptoms in Dementia (BPSD)

Introduction: Although there is evidence for distinct behavioural sub-phenotypes in Alzheimer's disease (AD), their inter-relationships and the effect of clinical variables on their expression have been little investigated.

An explanatory model for food-web structure and evolution

Food webs are networks describing who is eating whom in an ecological community. By now it is clear that many aspects of food-web structure are reproducible across diverse habitats, yet little is known about the driving force behind this structure. Evolutionary and population dynamical mechanisms have been considered. We propose a model for the evolutionary dynamics of food-web topology and show that it accurately reproduces observed food-web characteristics in the steady state. It is based on the observation that most consumers are larger than their resource species and the hypothesis that speciation and extinction rates decrease with increasing body mass. Results give strong support to the evolutionary hypothesis. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for radiation-induced bystander effects, with allowance for spatial position and the effects of cell turnover

Bystander effects, whereby cells that are not directly exposed to ionizing radiation exhibit adverse biological effects, have been observed in a number of experimental systems. A novel stochastic model of the radiation-induced bystander effect is developed that takes account of spatial location, cell killing and repopulation. The ionizing radiation dose- and time-responses of this model are explored, and it is shown to exhibit pronounced downward curvature in the high dose-rate region, similar to that observed in many experimental systems, reviewed in the paper. It is also shown to predict the augmentation of effect after fractionated delivery of dose that has been observed in certain experimental systems. It is shown that the generally intractable solution of the full stochastic system can be considerably simplified by assumption of pairwise conditional dependence that varies exponentially over time. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From imagery to intention: A dual route model of imagined contact effects

Imagined intergroup contact (Crisp & R. Turner, 2009) is a new indirect contact strategy for promoting tolerance and more positive intergroup relations. In this chapter, we review existing research on imagined contact and propose two routes-cognitive and affective-through which it can exert a positive influence on contact-related attitudes and intentions. We first review research that has established the beneficial impacts of imagined contact on intergroup attitudes via reduced intergroup anxiety, supporting its efficacy as an intervention where there exists little or no opportunity for direct contact. We then review more recent research showing that imagined contact not only improves attitudes, but can also enhance intentions to engage in future contact. These studies suggest that contact imagery provides a behavioural script that forms the cognitive basis for subsequent judgements about future contact intentions. Collectively, the findings from this research programme support the idea that imagined contact can complement more direct forms of contact-providing a way of initially encouraging an interest in engaging positively with outgroups before introducing face-to-face encounters. We discuss the implications of these findings for future theory and research, and how they can inform prejudice-reduction interventions seeking to capitalise on the beneficial effects of mental imagery.

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

A large scale model experimental study of a tidal turbine in uniform steady flow

An experimental study measuring the performance and wake characteristics of a 1:10th scale horizontal axis turbine in steady uniform flow conditions is presented in this paper.
Large scale towing tests conducted in a lake were devised to model the performance of the tidal turbine and measure the wake produced. As a simplification of the marine environment, towing the turbine in a lake provides approximately steady, uniform inflow conditions. A 16m long x 6m wide catamaran was constructed for the test programme. This doubled as a towing rig and flow measurement platform, providing a fixed frame of reference for measurements in the wake of a horizontal axis tidal turbine. Velocity mapping was conducted using Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters.
The results indicate varying the inflow speed yielded little difference in the efficiency of the turbine or the wake velocity deficit characteristics provided the same tip speed ratio is used. Increasing the inflow velocity from 0.9 m/s to 1.2 m/s influenced the turbulent wake characteristics more markedly. The results also demonstrate that the flow field in the wake of a horizontal axis tidal turbine is strongly affected by the turbine support structure

Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Physical Activity Behavior in Individuals With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model has been successful in promoting health behavior change in general and clinical populations. However, there is little knowledge about the application of the transtheoretical model to explain physical activity behavior in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. The aim was to examine patterns of (1) physical activity and (2) mediators of behavior change (self-efficacy, decisional balance, and processes of change) across stages of change in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Fifty-five subjects with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (mean age ± SD = 63 ± 10 y) had physical activity assessed over 7 d using an accelerometer. Each component of the transtheoretical model was assessed using validated questionnaires. Subjects were divided into groups depending on stage of change: Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation; n = 10), Group 2 (preparation; n = 20), and Group 3 (action and maintenance; n = 25). Statistical analyses included one-way analysis of variance and Tukey-Kramer post hoc tests.

RESULTS: Physical activity variables were significantly (P < .05) higher in Group 3 (action and maintenance) compared with Group 2 (preparation) and Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation). For self-efficacy, there were no significant differences between groups for mean scores (P = .14). Decisional balance cons (barriers to being physically active) were significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .032). For processes of change, substituting alternatives (substituting inactive options for active options) was significantly higher in Group 3 versus Group 1 (P = .01), and enlisting social support (seeking out social support to increase and maintain physical activity) was significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of physical activity across stages of change is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the transtheoretical model. Constructs of the transtheoretical model that appear to be important at different stages of change include decisional balance cons, substituting alternatives, and enlisting social support. This study provides support to explore transtheoretical model-based physical activity interventions in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

Numerical considerations for the implementation of a comprehensive composite damage model

A comprehensive continuum damage mechanics model [1] had been developed to capture the detailed
behaviour of a composite structure under a crushing load. This paper explores some of the difficulties
encountered in the implementation of this model and their mitigation. The use of reduced integration
element and a strain softening model both negatively affect the accuracy and stability of the
simulation. Damage localisation effects demanded an accurate measure of characteristic length. A
robust algorithm for determining the characteristic length was implemented. Testing showed that this
algorithm produced marked improvements over the use of the default characteristic length provided
by Abaqus. Zero-energy or hourglass modes, in reduced integration elements, led to reduced
resistance to bending. This was compounded by the strain softening model, which led to the formation
of elements with little resistance to deformation that could invert if left unchecked. It was shown,
through benchmark testing, that by deleting elements with excess distortions and controlling the mesh
using inbuilt distortion/hourglass controls, these issues can be alleviated. These techniques
contributed significantly to the viability and usability of the damage model.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

The structural effects of divalent cations and insulin on phospholipid model membranes /

It is well accepted that structural studies with model membranes are of considerable value in understanding the structure of biological membranes. Many studies with models of pure phospholipids have been done; but the effects of divalent cations and protein on these models would make these studies more applicable to intact membrane. The present study, performed with above view, is a structural analysis of divalent io~cardio1ipin complexes using the technique of x-ray diffraction. Cardiolipin, precipitated from dilute solution by divalent ionscalcium, magnesium and barium, contains little water and the structure formed is similar to the structure of pure cardiolipin with low water content. The calcium-cardiolipin complex forms a pure hexagonal type II phase that exists from 40 to 400 C. The molar ratio of calcium and cardiolipin in the complex is 1 : 1. Cardiolipin, precipitated with magnesium and barium forms two co-existing phases, lamellar and hexagonal, the relative quantity of the two phases being dependent on temperature. The hexagonal phase type II consisting of water filled channels formed by adding calcium to cardiolipin may have a remarkable permeability property in intact membrane. Pure cardiolipin and insulin at pH 3.0 and 4.0 precipitate but form no organised structure. Lecithin/cardiolipin and insulin precipitated at pH 3.0 give a pure lamellar phase. As the lecithin/cardiolipin molar ratio changes from 93/7 to SO/50, (a) the repeat distance of the lamellar changes from 72.8 X to 68.2 A; (b) the amount of protein bound increases in such a way that cardiolipin/insulin molar ratio in the complex reaches a maximum constant value at lecithin/cardiolipin molar ratio 70/30. A structural model based on these data shows that the molecular arrangement of lipid and protein is a lipid bilayer coated with protein molecules. The lipid-protein interaction is chiefly electrostatic and little, if any, hydrophobic bonding occurs in this particular system. So, the proposed model is essentially the same as Davson-Daniellifs model of biological membrane.