Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

A model predictive approach for community battery energy storage system optimization

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for optimizing the operation of battery storage in a low voltage distribution network with a high penetration of PV generation. A predictive control solution is presented that uses wavelet neural networks to predict the load and PV generation at hourly intervals for twelve hours into the future. The load and generation forecast, and the previous twelve hours of load and generation history, is used to assemble load profile. A diurnal charging profile can be compactly represented by a vector of Fourier coefficients allowing a direct search optimization algorithm to be applied. The optimal profile is updated hourly allowing the state of charge profile to respond to changing forecasts in load.

Optimizing preventative maintenance strategies for linear assets

Linear assets are engineering infrastructure, such as pipelines, railway lines, and electricity cables, which span long distances and can be divided into different segments. Optimal management of such assets is critical for asset owners as they normally involve significant capital investment. Currently, Time Based Preventive Maintenance (TBPM) strategies are commonly used in industry to improve the reliability of such assets, as they are easy to implement compared with reliability or risk-based preventive maintenance strategies. Linear assets are normally of large scale and thus their preventive maintenance is costly. Their owners and maintainers are always seeking to optimize their TBPM outcomes in terms of minimizing total expected costs over a long term involving multiple maintenance cycles. These costs include repair costs, preventive maintenance costs, and production losses. A TBPM strategy defines when Preventive Maintenance (PM) starts, how frequently the PM is conducted and which segments of a linear asset are operated on in each PM action. A number of factors such as required minimal mission time, customer satisfaction, human resources, and acceptable risk levels need to be considered when planning such a strategy. However, in current practice, TBPM decisions are often made based on decision makers’ expertise or industrial historical practice, and lack a systematic analysis of the effects of these factors. To address this issue, here we investigate the characteristics of TBPM of linear assets, and develop an effective multiple criteria decision making approach for determining an optimal TBPM strategy. We develop a recursive optimization equation which makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different maintenance options for linear assets, such as the best partitioning of the asset into segments and the maintenance cost per segment.

A pseudo-dynamical systems approach to a class of inverse problems in engineering

A pseudo-dynamical approach for a class of inverse problems involving static measurements is proposed and explored. Following linearization of the minimizing functional associated with the underlying optimization problem, the new strategy results in a system of linearized ordinary differential equations (ODEs) whose steady-state solutions yield the desired reconstruction. We consider some explicit and implicit schemes for integrating the ODEs and thus establish a deterministic reconstruction strategy without an explicit use of regularization. A stochastic reconstruction strategy is then developed making use of an ensemble Kalman filter wherein these ODEs serve as the measurement model. Finally, we assess the numerical efficacy of the developed tools against a few linear and nonlinear inverse problems of engineering interest.

Issues of Digital Ecosystems Approach to Biological Ecosystem Simulation Model Fit Optimization

This study examines the application of digital ecosystems concepts to a biological ecosystem simulation problem. The problem involves the use of a digital ecosystem agent to optimize the accuracy of a second digital ecosystem agent, the biological ecosystem simulation. The study also incorporates social ecosystems, with a technological solution design subsystem communicating with a science subsystem and simulation software developer subsystem to determine key characteristics of the biological ecosystem simulation. The findings show similarities between the issues involved in digital ecosystem collaboration and those occurring when digital ecosystems interact with biological ecosystems. The results also suggest that even precise semantic descriptions and comprehensive ontologies may be insufficient to describe agents in enough detail for use within digital ecosystems, and a number of solutions to this problem are proposed.

A new approach for fixed point smoothing in linear distributed parameter systems

In this paper, we solve the distributed parameter fixed point smoothing problem by formulating it as an extended linear filtering problem and show that these results coincide with those obtained in the literature using the forward innovations method.

Ultraspherical polynomials approach to the study of third-order non-linear systems

In this study, the Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolskii-Popov asymptotic method is used to determine the transient response of third-order non-linear systems. Instead of averaging the non-linear functions over a cycle, they are expanded in ultraspherical polynomials and the constant term is retained. The resulting equations are solved to obtain the approximate solution. A numerical example is considered and the approximate solution is compared with the digital solution. The results show that there is good agreement between the two values.

Study of third-order non-linear systems- Variation of parameters approach

In this paper, the transient response of a third-order non-linear system is obtained by first reducing the given third-order equation to three first-order equations by applying the method of variation of parameters. On the assumption that the variations of amplitude and phase are small, the functions are expanded in ultraspherical polynomials. The expansion is restricted to the constant term. The resulting equations are solved to obtain the response of the given third-order system. A numerical example is considered to illustrate the method. The results show that the agreement between the approximate and digital solution is good thus vindicating the approximation.

An approach for sensitivity-reduced design of linear regulators

A now procedure for the design of sensitivity-reduced control for linear regulators is described. The control is easily computable and implementable since it requires neither the solution of an increased-order augmented system nor the generation and feedback of a trajectory sensitivity vector. The method provides a trade-off between reduction in sensitivity measure and increase in performance index.

Non-linear systems with quadratic and cubic damping - an analytical approach

The possible equivalence of second-order non-linear systems having quadratic and cubic damping with third-order linear systems is studied in this paper. It is shown that this equivalence can be established through transformation techniques under certain constraints on the form of the non-linearity of the given system.

Non-linear Transceiver Designs with Imperfect CSIT Using Convex Optimization

In this paper, we consider non-linear transceiver designs for multiuser multi-input multi-output (MIMO) down-link in the presence of imperfections in the channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas and each user terminal is equipped with multiple receive antennas. The BS employs Tomlinson-Harashima precoding (THP) for inter-user interference pre-cancellation at the transmitter. We investigate robust THP transceiver designs based on the minimization of BS transmit power with mean square error (MSE) constraints, and balancing of MSE among users with a constraint on the total BS transmit power. We show that these design problems can be solved by iterative algorithms, wherein each iteration involves a pair of convex optimization problems. The robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT is illustrated through simulations.

Accuracy of absorbed dose in external photon beam radiotherapy : what level is sufficient and how to approach it?

Radiation therapy (RT) plays currently significant role in curative treatments of several cancers. External beam RT is carried out mostly by using megavoltage beams of linear accelerators. Tumor eradication and normal tissue complications correlate to dose absorbed in tissues. Normally this dependence is steep and it is crucial that actual dose within patient accurately correspond to the planned dose. All factors in a RT procedure contain uncertainties requiring strict quality assurance. From hospital physicist´s point of a view, technical quality control (QC), dose calculations and methods for verification of correct treatment location are the most important subjects. Most important factor in technical QC is the verification that radiation production of an accelerator, called output, is within narrow acceptable limits. The output measurements are carried out according to a locally chosen dosimetric QC program defining measurement time interval and action levels. Dose calculation algorithms need to be configured for the accelerators by using measured beam data. The uncertainty of such data sets limits for best achievable calculation accuracy. All these dosimetric measurements require good experience, are workful, take up resources needed for treatments and are prone to several random and systematic sources of errors. Appropriate verification of treatment location is more important in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) than in conventional RT. This is due to steep dose gradients produced within or close to healthy tissues locating only a few millimetres from the targeted volume. The thesis was concentrated in investigation of the quality of dosimetric measurements, the efficacy of dosimetric QC programs, the verification of measured beam data and the effect of positional errors on the dose received by the major salivary glands in head and neck IMRT. A method was developed for the estimation of the effect of the use of different dosimetric QC programs on the overall uncertainty of dose. Data were provided to facilitate the choice of a sufficient QC program. The method takes into account local output stability and reproducibility of the dosimetric QC measurements. A method based on the model fitting of the results of the QC measurements was proposed for the estimation of both of these factors. The reduction of random measurement errors and optimization of QC procedure were also investigated. A method and suggestions were presented for these purposes. The accuracy of beam data was evaluated in Finnish RT centres. Sufficient accuracy level was estimated for the beam data. A method based on the use of reference beam data was developed for the QC of beam data. Dosimetric and geometric accuracy requirements were evaluated for head and neck IMRT when function of the major salivary glands is intended to be spared. These criteria are based on the dose response obtained for the glands. Random measurement errors could be reduced enabling lowering of action levels and prolongation of measurement time interval from 1 month to even 6 months simultaneously maintaining dose accuracy. The combined effect of the proposed methods, suggestions and criteria was found to facilitate the avoidance of maximal dose errors of up to even about 8 %. In addition, their use may make the strictest recommended overall dose accuracy level of 3 % (1SD) achievable.

A new approach to the study of non-linear non-autonomous systems

In this paper, a new approach to the study of non-linear, non-autonomous systems is presented. The method outlined is based on the idea of solving the governing differential equations of order n by a process of successive reduction of their order. This is achieved by the use of “differential transformation functions”. The value of the technique presented in the study of problems arising in the field of non-linear mechanics and the like, is illustrated by means of suitable examples drawn from different fields such as vibrations, rigid body dynamics, etc.

A novel approach for large-scale polypeptide folding based on elastic networks using continuous optimization

We present a new computationally efficient method for large-scale polypeptide folding using coarse-grained elastic networks and gradient-based continuous optimization techniques. The folding is governed by minimization of energy based on Miyazawa–Jernigan contact potentials. Using this method we are able to substantially reduce the computation time on ordinary desktop computers for simulation of polypeptide folding starting from a fully unfolded state. We compare our results with available native state structures from Protein Data Bank (PDB) for a few de-novo proteins and two natural proteins, Ubiquitin and Lysozyme. Based on our simulations we are able to draw the energy landscape for a small de-novo protein, Chignolin. We also use two well known protein structure prediction software, MODELLER and GROMACS to compare our results. In the end, we show how a modification of normal elastic network model can lead to higher accuracy and lower time required for simulation.

A generalized Linear Programming based approach to optimal divisible load scheduling

In this paper we propose a general Linear Programming (LP) based formulation and solution methodology for obtaining optimal solution to the load distribution problem in divisible load scheduling. We exploit the power of the versatile LP formulation to propose algorithms that yield exact solutions to several very general load distribution problems for which either no solutions or only heuristic solutions were available. We consider both star (single-level tree) networks and linear daisy chain networks, having processors equipped with front-ends, that form the generic models for several important network topologies. We consider arbitrary processing node availability or release times and general models for communication delays and computation time that account for constant overheads such as start up times in communication and computation. The optimality of the LP based algorithms is proved rigorously.