Predictors of weight change in sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention

L'arrêt de la cigarette est généralement associé à une prise de poids. Celle-ci peut menacer la motivation des fumeurs à s'engager dans un processus d'arrêt du tabac et constitue un motif de rechute. L'ordre de grandeur et la cinétique de la prise de poids liée à une tentative d'arrêt chez les fumeurs pris en charge selon les recommandations cliniques actuelles est peu décrite dans la littérature médicale. Le but de cette étude était de quantifier cette prise de poids, d'en déterminer la cinétique ainsi que les facteurs qui l'influencent, chez des fumeurs sédentaires bénéficiant d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac individualisée, composée de conseils individuels et d'une substitution nicotinique associant plusieurs modes d'administration. Nous avons analysé des données récoltées durant un essai clinique randomisé contrôlé au cours duquel était étudié l'impact d'une activité physique modérée sur les taux d'arrêt du tabac après un an chez des fumeurs sédentaires. Nous avons modélisé l'évolution du poids de l'ensemble des participants au cours du temps, selon la technique statistique des « modèles mixtes longitudinaux ». En séparant les périodes d'abstinence de la cigarette de celles de rechute et de l'utilisation reportée de substituts nicotiniques. Cette approche nous a permis de prendre en compte chaque participant à l'étude, par opposition à un modèle plus simple qui séparerait les sujets abstinents de ceux qui rechutent à n'importe quel moment de la période de suivi. Nous avons également ajusté ces modèles pour l'âge, le sexe, le niveau de dépendance à la nicotine et le niveau de formation des participants. Parmi l'ensemble des participants, nous avons noté une augmentation du poids durant les trois premiers mois de l'intervention, suivie d'une stabilisation. Au total, la prise de poids moyenne s'est élevée à 3.3 kg pour les femmes et 3.9 kg pour les hommes. Durant les périodes d'abstinence, les caractéristiques suivantes étaient associées à la prise de poids : sexe masculin et forte dépendance nicotinique. Un âge supérieur à 43 ans était associé à une prise de poids également durant les périodes de rechute. Nous avons observé une tendance, non statistiquement significative, vers une réduction de la prise des poids avec l'utilisation de substituts nicotiniques. Notre étude apporte de nouvelles données sur l'évolution du poids chez les fumeurs sédentaires qui bénéficient d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac. Ils prennent donc du poids, de manière modérée et limitée aux premiers mois. Parmi eux, les hommes, les individus les plus dépendants à la nicotine et les plus âgés doivent s'attendre à une prise de poids supérieure à la moyenne.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Application of standard and refined heat balance integral methods to one-dimensional Stefan problems

The work in this paper concerns the study of conventional and refined heat balance integral methods for a number of phase change problems. These include standard test problems, both with one and two phase changes, which have exact solutions to enable us to test the accuracy of the approximate solutions. We also consider situations where no analytical solution is available and compare these to numerical solutions. It is popular to use a quadratic profile as an approximation of the temperature, but we show that a cubic profile, seldom considered in the literature, is far more accurate in most circumstances. In addition, the refined integral method can give greater improvement still and we develop a variation on this method which turns out to be optimal in some cases. We assess which integral method is better for various problems, showing that it is largely dependent on the specified boundary conditions.

The Security Council and the Legitimacy of the Use of Force: Legal, Normative, and Social Aspects.

Tal i com estableix la Carta de les Nacions Unides, el Consell de Seguretat determina l’existència d’una amenaça a la pau, un trencament de la pau o un acte d’agressió i decideix les mesures que han de fer-se servir per restaurar la pau i seguretat internacionals, també l’ús de la força. L’objectiu d’aquest article és explorar la legitimitat d’aquest ús de la força. Amb aquest objectiu, el text parteix d’una definició centrada en les seves dimensions legal, normativa i social. En segon lloc, s’analitzarà com aquestes dimensions estan representades als debats del Consell de Seguretat de la guerra d’Irak de 2003, un dels usos de la força més controvertits i que més debat ha generat als darrers anys. Finalment, l’anàlisi proposat permet treure algunes conclusions sobre les bases canviants de la legitimitat de l’ús de la força.

A Preliminary Analysis of Insects of Medico-legal Importance in Curitiba, State of Paraná

A survey of the carrion fauna was made at two sites in Curitiba, State of Paraná, with the objective of describing the insects associated with carrion and setting up a preliminary data-base for medico-legal purposes in south Brazil. Vertebrate exclusion experiments were carried out in each season between 1994 and 1995 with a 250 g laboratory-bred rat (Rattus norvegicus). Five stages of decomposition were identified: fresh, bloated, decaying, dry and adipocere-like. Some species showed seasonal and site preference and so could be used to identify the probable place and season where death took place. Sarconesia chlorogaster (Diptera, Calliphoridae) was restricted to an open field site and to cooler months. Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Diptera, Calliphoridae) and Pattonella resona (Diptera, Sarcophagidae) were restricted to the forest site and warmer months. Phaenicia eximia (Diptera, Calliphoridae) and Oxyletrum discicolle (Coleoptera, Silphidae) were present at both sites throughout the year and could be useful for population level analysis. Dissochaetus murray (Coleoptera, Cholevidae) was present throughout the year at the forest site and was associated with the adipocere-like stage. Ants played an important role producing post-mortem injuries to the carcasses. Insects of 32 species are reported as being useful in community level approaches

Do Legal Immigrants and Natives Compete in the Labour Market? Evidence from Catalonia

The precondition for labour-market competition between immigrants and natives is that both are willing to accept jobs that do not differ in quality. To test this hypothesis, in this paper we compare the working conditions between immigrants and natives in Catalonia. Comparing immigrants’ working conditions in relation to their native counterparts is not only a useful analysis for studying the extent to which immigrants and low-skilled native workers are direct competitors in the labour market, but also allows us to contribute to the literature on this issue by moving away from the conventional approach used in previous studies. Our results indicate that: i) natives and immigrants display a different taste for job (dis)amenities; ii) Catalan-born workers might be in direct competition with EU15 immigrants, while non-Catalan Spanish workers might be competing with Latin American immigrants, and; iii) African-born immigrants are the group in the Catalan workforce that by far face the worst working conditions.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography vs. conventional autopsy: advantages and inconveniences of each method.

PURPOSE: Postmortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) was introduced into forensic investigations a few years ago. It provides reliable images that can be consulted at any time. Conventional autopsy remains the reference standard for defining the cause of death, but provides only limited possibility of a second examination. This study compares these two procedures and discusses findings that can be detected exclusively using each method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study compared radiological reports from PMCTA to reports from conventional autopsy for 50 forensic autopsy cases. Reported findings from autopsy and PMCTA were extracted and compared to each other. PMCTA was performed using a modified heart-lung machine and the oily contrast agent Angiofil® (Fumedica AG, Muri, Switzerland). RESULTS: PMCTA and conventional autopsy would have drawn similar conclusions regarding causes of death. Nearly 60 % of all findings were visualized with both techniques. PMCTA demonstrates a higher sensitivity for identifying skeletal and vascular lesions. However, vascular occlusions due to postmortem blood clots could be falsely assumed to be vascular lesions. In contrast, conventional autopsy does not detect all bone fractures or the exact source of bleeding. Conventional autopsy provides important information about organ morphology and remains the only way to diagnose a vital vascular occlusion with certitude. CONCLUSION: Overall, PMCTA and conventional autopsy provide comparable findings. However, each technique presents advantages and disadvantages for detecting specific findings. To correctly interpret findings and clearly define the indications for PMCTA, these differences must be understood.

Genetic and Antigenic Analysis of Adenovirus Type 3 Strains Showing Intermediate Behavior in Standard Seroneutralization Test

During an epidemiological survey of acute respiratory infection in Rio de Janeiro, among 208 adenovirus isolates, we found two strains that we were not able, by a standard neutralization procedure, to distinguish between type 3 or 7. However, DNA restriction pattern for the two strains with different enzymes were analyzed and showed a typical Ad3h profile. Using a cross-neutralization test in which both Ad3p and Ad7p antisera were used in different concentration against 100 TCID50 of each adenovirus standard and both isolates, we were able to confirm that the two isolates belong to serotype 3. An hemagglutination inhibition test also corroborated the identification of both strains as adenovirus type 3. Comparing Ad3h and Ad3p genome, we observed 16 different restriction enzyme sites, three of which were located in genomic regions encoding polypeptides involved in neutralization sites

Individual versus standard quality of life assessment in a phase II clinical trial in mesothelioma patients: feasibility and responsiveness to clinical changes.

BACKGROUND: In patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma undergoing a multimodality therapy, treatment toxicity may outweigh the benefit of progression-free survival. The subjective experience across different treatment phases is an important clinical outcome. This study compares a standard with an individual quality of life (QoL) measure used in a multi-center phase II trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-one patients with stage I-III technically operable pleural mesothelioma were treated with preoperative chemotherapy, followed by pleuropneumonectomy and subsequent radiotherapy. QoL was assessed at baseline, at day 1 of cycle 3, and 1, 3 and 6 months post-surgery by using the Rotterdam Symptom Checklist (RSCL) and the Schedule for the Evaluation of Quality of Life-Direct Weighting (SEIQoL-DW), a measure that is based on five individually nominated and weighted QoL-domains. RESULTS: Completion rates were 98% (RSCL) and 92% (SEIQoL) at baseline and 98%/89% at cycle 3, respectively. Of the operated patients (N=45) RSCL and SEIQoL were available from 86%/72%, 93%/74%, and 94%/76% at months 1, 3, and 6 post-surgery. Average assessment time for the SEIQoL was 24min compared to 8min needed for the RSCL. Median changes from baseline indicate that both RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index remained stable during chemotherapy with a clinically significant deterioration (change>or=8 points) 1 month after surgery (median change of -66 and -14 for RSCL and SEIQoL, respectively). RSCL QoL overall scores improved thereafter, but remained beneath baseline level until 6 months after surgery. SEIQoL scores improved to baseline-level at month 3 after surgery, but worsened again at month 6. RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index were moderately correlated at baseline (r=.30; p<or=.05) and at 6-month follow-up (r=.42; p<or=.05) but not at the other time points. CONCLUSION: The SEIQoL assessment seems to be feasible within a phase II clinical trial, but may require more effort from staff. More distinctive QoL changes in accordance with clinical changes were measured with the RSCL. Our findings suggest that the two measures are not interchangeable: the RSCL is to favor when mainly information related to the course of disease- and treatment is of interest.

RTOG 0525: Exploratory Subset Analysis from a Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Standard (std) Adjuvant Temozolomide (TMZ) with a Dose-dense (dd) Schedule for Glioblastoma (GBM)

Purpose/Objective(s): RTwith TMZ is the standard for GBM. dd TMZ causes prolongedMGMTdepletion in mononuclear cells and possibly in tumor. The RTOG 0525 trial (ASCO 2011) did not show an advantage from dd TMZ for survival or progression free survival. We conducted exploratory, hypothesis-generating subset analyses to detect possible benefit from dd TMZ.Materials/Methods: Patients were randomized to std (150-200 mg/m2 x 5 d) or dd TMZ (75-100 mg/m2 x 21 d) q 4 weeks for 6- 12 cycles. Eligibility included age.18, KPS$ 60, and. 1 cm2 tissue for prospective MGMTanalysis for stratification. Furtheranalyses were performed for all randomized patients (''intent-to-treat'', ITT), and for all patients starting protocol therapy (SPT). Subset analyses were performed by RPA class (III, IV, V), KPS (90-100, = 50,\50), resection (partial, total), gender (female, male), and neurologic dysfunction (nf = none, minor, moderate).Results: No significant difference was seen for median OS (16.6 vs. 14.9 months), or PFS (5.5 vs. 6.7 months, p = 0.06). MGMT methylation was linked to improved OS (21.2 vs. 14 months, p\0.0001), and PFS (8.7 vs. 5.7 months, p\0.0001). For the ITT (n = 833), there was no OS benefit from dd TMZ in any subset. Two subsets showed a PFS benefit for dd TMZ: RPA class III (6.2 vs. 12.6 months, HR 0.69, p = 0.03) and nf = minor (HR 0.77, p = 0.01). For RPA III, dd dramatically delayed progression, but post-progression dd patients died more quickly than std. A similar pattern for nf = minor was observed. For the SPT group (n = 714) there was neither PFS nor OS benefit for dd TMZ, overall. For RPA class III and nf = minor, there was a PFS benefit for dd TMZ (HR 0.73, p = 0.08; HR 0.77, p = 0.02). For nf = moderate subset, both ITT and SPT, the std arm showed superior OS (14.4 vs. 10.9 months) compared to dd, without improved PFS (HR 1.46, p = 0.03; and HR 1.74, p = 0.01. In terms of methylation status within this subset, there were more methylated patients in the std arm of the ITT subset (n = 159; 32 vs. 24%). For the SPT subset (n = 124), methylation status was similar between arms.Conclusions: This study did not demonstrate improved OS for dd TMZ for any subgroup, but for 2 highly functional subgroups, PFS was significantly increased. These data generate the testable hypothesis that intensive treatment may selectively improve disease control in those most likely able to tolerate dd therapy. Interpretation of this should be considered carefully due to small sample size, the process of multiple observations, and other confounders.Acknowledgment: This project was supported by RTOG grant U10 CA21661, and CCOP grant U10 CA37422 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Donation after Circulatory Death Legal-Guidance March 2011 (PDF 333 KB)

Donation after Circulatory Death. Legal Guidance

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.