The varieties of regional change

Many metropolitan areas have experienced extreme boom-bust cycles over the past century. Some places, like Detroit, grew enormously as industrial powerhouses and then declined, while other older cities, like Boston, seem quite resilient. Education does a reasonable job of explaining urban resilience. In this paper, we present a simple model where education increases the level of entrepreneurship. In this model, human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce more product varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We decompose empirically the causes of the connection between skills and urban success and find that skills are associated with growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, at least outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supply growth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educated residents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment during the current recession.

Predictors of Weight Change in Sedentary Smokers Receiving a Standard Smoking Cessation Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Quitting smoking is associated with weight gain, which may threaten motivation to engage or sustain a quit attempt. The pattern of weight gained by smokers treated according to smoking cessation guidelines has been poorly described. We aimed to determine the weight gained after smoking cessation and its predictors, by smokers receiving individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapies for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed an ancillary analysis of a randomized controlled trial assessing moderate physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation in addition to standard treatment in sedentary adult smokers. We used mixed longitudinal models to describe the evolution of weight over time, thus allowing us to take every participant into account. We also fitted a model to assess the effect of smoking status and reported use of nicotine replacement therapy at each time point. We adjusted for intervention group, sex, age, nicotine dependence, and education. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, weight increased in the first 3 months, and stabilized afterwards. Mean 1-year weight gain was 3.3kg for women and 3.9kg for men (p = .002). Higher nicotine dependence and male sex were associated with more weight gained during abstinence. Age over median was associated with continuing weight gain during relapse. There was a nonsignificant trend toward slower weight gain with use of nicotine replacement therapies. CONCLUSION: Sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention experience a moderate weight gain, limited to the first 3 months. Older age, male sex, and higher nicotine dependence are predictors of weight gain.

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

Facteurs de risque fracturaire, nouveaux traitements: comment evolue la prise en charge de l'ostéoporose de la personne agée [Fracture risk, new treatments: how does the management of the osteoporosis of elderly change?]

Osteoporosis of elderly is a growing medical, economic and health-care problem. It is due to the increase of the life expectancy and the number of osteoporotic fractures. With the new Swiss-specific tool FRAX and the development of inpatients fracture trajectory, we can better identify patients with high risk of fracture. An appropriate treatment can be proposed more quickly. The follow-up of bone markers increases the treatment efficiency. With a better identification, treatment and follow-up of osteoporosis of elderly patients, we can ameliorate the patient's quality of life and decrease the number of osteoporotic fractures with a good cost-effectiveness ratio.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

How adult specialists deal with the principles of a successful transition.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether adult specialists comply with the basic principles for a successful transition of adolescents with chronic disorders, and to determine whether the characteristics of the adult specialists have an influence on applying these principles. METHODS: Out of 299 adult specialists in four French-speaking Swiss cantons, 209 (70%) answered a paper-and-pencil mailed questionnaire between May and July 2007. Only those having received the transfer of at least one adolescent in the previous 2 years (N=102) were included in the analysis. We analyzed four dependent variables: discussing common concerns of adolescent patients, seeing the patient alone, having a transition protocol, and having a previous contact with the pediatric specialist. A logistic regression was performed for each dependent variable controlling for the physicians' characteristics (number of transfers, age, gender, workplace, and perceived experience). RESULTS: Fifty-four percent of the physicians did not spend time alone with their patients, and sensitive issues such as sexuality or substance use were not widely discussed with their young patients. Most respondents (59%) did not have an established protocol, and 54% did not have any contact with the pediatric specialist. In the multivariate analyses, the adult specialists' characteristics had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: For many adolescents with chronic disorders the transition from pediatric to adult healthcare seems to be limited to a simple transfer, often lacking adequate communication between physicians. Applying simple but basic principles such as a good coordination between providers would probably improve the quality of healthcare of adolescents with chronic illness.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.